Sadly not engagedd

The Lounsbury - July 1, 2009 10:30 PM | Comments (0)
Filed Under: Blog Notes - Admin

I am afraid that yours truly is more than a bit distracted by the MENA echoes on the global crisis and the rather unpleasant charge of "rationalising" staff across several offices, as well as designing a new regional strategy. This after seeing on the internal reporting that my offices/ region are perhaps 40% of plain vanilla income. I am told that I can hit new opps and leverage home office free talent. Oddly hat never worked before...

Outside my normal brief, but highlighting the stupidity of laywers in strategy

The Lounsbury - May 2, 2009 05:50 PM | Comments (15)
Filed Under: Biz - Policy & Development

It is my firm view that lawyers are trained to be tacticians, in the greater scheme of things (not belittling long term purely law focused strategy) and they have a strong tendency to mistake law for strategy.

Here in the bankruptcy of Chrysler, I see lawyers fingerprints:The Lenders Obama Decided to Blame for Chrysler’s Fall - NYTimes.com

These investors together hold about $1 billion of Chrysler’s secured debt. The Treasury offered to pay all of Chrysler’s senior lenders $2.25 billion in cash if they forgave most of the company’s debts. Perella Weinberg and the others demanded more, arguing they would receive at least that much, and possibly more, under ordinary bankruptcy proceedings.

But this is no ordinary bankruptcy. JPMorgan Chase and other large banks involved in the negotiations are, to greater and lesser degrees, beholden to Washington. Many have received billions of taxpayer dollars, as well as other generous subsidies. For the banks, defying the administration was never a serious option, according to people close to the talks with lenders, who asked not to be identified because they had signed confidentiality agreements.

The other creditors, who sought to distinguish themselves from those who have received bailout money, believed they had a stronger hand. Many of them bought Chrysler debt for about 30 cents on the dollar, long after it became clear that the company was in trouble. Most of this debt is secured by Chrysler assets — factories, equipment, real estate and the like. The thinking was that in the worst case, these assets could be sold at a profit if Chrysler were liquidated.

Emphasis added.

Now the layers can't be blamed for that perhaps, but the presumption Chryslers fixed assets would get a good return (even if one came in at 30 cents on the dollar) given one is facing a depression-level economic crisis, and the rest of the auto industry is on the brink. Never mind the very industry being on a Gov't equity lifeline. In such conditions, normal rules can be pretty much counted on as being out the window.

But it is plain retarded to whinge on about the Gov't changing the rules when as a Vulture investor it's transparently obvious you were making a moral hazard play, that the Gov't wouldn't dare go nuclear.

Well, they did.

Too bad, your dumb call.

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New Month, etc.

The Lounsbury - May 1, 2009 07:20 PM | Comments (2)
Filed Under: Blog Notes - Admin

May Day. Woo, Labour Unite.

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Iraq, investors... Pipes.

The Lounsbury - April 29, 2009 12:30 AM | Comments (3)
Filed Under: Biz - Private in MENA , Iraq , Perso Biz Notes

FT.com / Middle East - Investors eye opportunity in Iraq

“What is risky these days? If you think about the people who were investing in AAA guaranteed paper only a few years ago, the concept of risk has changed fundamentally,” says Richard Blakesley, managing director of Fairfax, a London private equity fund planning to invest as much as $200m (€153m, £136m) in Iraq this year. With its eye on plastic pipes, concrete, asphalt and food production businesses – all areas where Iraq needs investment for import substitution – Fairfax plans to increase its Iraq fund to $1bn.

Aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. My beautiful pipes.

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