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September 30, 2003
On Iraq: Divides
Eva Luna, in a comment on one of my two notes on Iraq yesterday asked me to amplify my comments on divisions in Iraqi society, to get beyond the Sunnni, Shi'ite, Kurd trichotomy usually presented in the press.
Let me first say that when we get as far east as Iraq, we get to the edge of the area where I consider myself an actual expert, and where I become merely knowledgeable. Matter of experience and lack of great interest in the Turkish and Farsi areas. Nothing against the Turks or the Iranians, indeed I love the Turks, but never pushed my buttons - or never had the opportunity to push me buttons.
This aside, I should hardly wish to blame the media or in general seem critical of a presentation that largely sticks to the macro divides of Sunni Arab vs Shi'ite Arab vs Sunni Kurd. It largely captures, in my opinion, the most important tensions, and given that few Westerners have any degree of knowledge or familiarity with the region (and have a penchant for confusing Muslim with Arab and vice versa), any further detial is likely simply to confuse the average, even educated, reader.
That aside, however, it is important to keep in mind that Sunni (Arabs), Shi'ites (Arabs), Kurds (largely Sunni, some Shi'ite, some Yazidi, etc.), Turcomans (Shi'ite and Sunni - frankly not sure where the balance is) etc. do not represent, ipso facto, coherent ethno-political entitities.
As The New York Times article I cited to here two days ago highlights one of the overriding features of Middle Eastern society - the degree to which larger national level - and in many ways even regional level identities and loyalties have failed to emerge in most places. Most, not all certainly. That makes for highly fractured societies which, barring authoritarianism, have a difficult time reaching durable public consensus and tend to make politics a matter of grabbing what you can for your narrow group (family, then clan).
Now, in the situation in Iraq, you have had an economy in long term decline for a good 25 years, and in free fall since the invasion. Very clearly the pressures to grab what resources you can and screw people not in your group, however defined, are high. The pie, as it were, is getting smaller and has shown no sign of getting bigger and fighting over the crumbs is vicious.
Now then, as I reflect I am not sure I can make particularly insightful comments on particular detials of tensions. What I think I can say, and what is important to keep in mind is that one must not assume - as it natural in the West - that there is a real sense of "common good" or national interest that binds together an Iraqi nation.
The conditions in Iraq, rather, are ripe for what some conflict resolution analysis calls "ethnic entrepreneurship"- a funny piece of jargon meaning the power hungry selling ethnic hatreds (and we can be sure to see this in ethno-religious terms) as a means to grab power and wealth.
An ugly, nasty soup with a lot of potential for going wrong. And the Bush Admin opened this Pandora's Box in their gleeful naivete.
Posted by The Lounsbury at September 30, 2003 11:01 AM
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Jan-Dec 2003
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