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September 25, 2003
The Bush Speech @ UN; Iraq notes
A strange move to speak to the UN at this point, and yet clearly not be prepared to offer anything. It struck me as a domestic stump speech to the wrong audience. Lackluster, nervous in my opinion and typical of his low quality speaking skills, I don't see what the purpose was. Contrast with the somewhat cool but well-structured speech of Annan or the impassioned discourse by Chirac - a very good speaker I may add if you listened to the French original - and you see how unconvincing Bush is to all but the "pre-fooled".
However, the real point of puzzlement is why this speech?
I suspect the Bush Admin. had lined up the idea when they had "pre-fooled" themselves once more into thinking their self-regarding anti-diplomacy would have real payoffs, and that the Bush speech would crown a movement to have other nations kick in to pay for their mistakes.
By the time things rolled around, it was clear that was not happening, but speech-writers were stuck with a triumphalist theme.
Or they are stupid.
In other matters, I note The Financial Times reported the Bush Administration is afraid now that nations will use Iraqi sov. debt write offs as their contribution to Iraq - in lieu of giving the Bush Admin. cash to spend via the CPA-Iraq.
I remain staggered at these characters' naivete and indeed blindness. They offer no real concessions, no real engagement with genuine concerns, they posture and berate. Then they are surprised at luke warm responses? This truly is singularly one of the most diplomatically incompetent administrations the United States has ever had, ever. To manage to go from global sympathy to a rump coalition of the willing (to be bribed or willing to accept kickbacks) in but two years, and over what may be said to be non-core (in pragmatic terms) issues - although core to their ideology - is astounding.
At the same time I note the recent Zogby poll in Baghdad indicating still a reservoir of patience in even that city.
A few comments on this poll. I hope that it is correct, but I am worried about reading too much into it. First, Iraqis emerging from a police state where one is conditioned to say what one thinks an official questioner wants to hear, I suspect are likely to give less-than-fully-honest answers to independent pollsters - something that never existed in Iraq in the past. As such, insofar as the pollsters represent a Western body, I see a potential skew in the respondant sample saying what they think the pollsters want to hear. Second, I am unsure that a representative, balanced sample can be obtained at present in the city, so we may have some skew here.
I would guess, overall, that the general idea one gets from the poll is correct, but the margin of error is ridiculously understated due to underestimating biases in the original approach. Regardless, an interesting and unbaised datapoint, useful if taken in the context of the inherent limitations of polling methodology in such circumstances, and hopefully broadly indicative that there is still time to pull the chesnuts out of the fire.
Now, what I have found particularly disturbing and even bizarre is the cut off your nose to spite your face reaction in some quarters of the US congress. Several reports have congress members grumbling that if other countries don't step up to the plate, then they will oppose reconstruction funding for Iraq.
This is one of the most nonsensical things I have ever heard in my life. It was widely agreed before and during the war that Iraq would be key to US FP success, that in order to defend our prestige, etc., that Iraq would have to work. And because other nations don't want to pay, you will oppose the US spending to ensure the success of its own policy?
Am I the only person that finds this position to be bordering on the surreal and insane?
Posted by The Lounsbury at September 25, 2003 12:57 AM
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Jan-Dec 2003
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