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October 05, 2003
Iraq - Recon issues
If I may, some interesting reporting on Iraq again, this time The New York Times
Report Offered Bleak Outlook About Iraq Oil
By JEFF GERTH
Published: October 5, 2003
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/05/international/middleeast/05OIL.html?hp=&pagewanted=all&position=
The synopsis is that even the Pentagon had on hand data and analysis which indicated that the Iraqi economic situation was in a truly bad state and that the cheery khayali crap that Cheney, Rumsfeld and Wolfie were pimping was not mere ignorance but active lies or self-deception.
I would opt for the lies category.
Now this article is nearer and dearer.
Questions are Raised on Awarding of Contracts in Iraq
By PATRICK E. TYLER and RAYMOND BONNER
Published: October 4, 2003
http://nytimes.com/2003/10/04/international/middleeast/04SPEN.html?pagewanted=all&position=
It reports on issues regarding reconstruction, accused corruption, inefficiencies, etc.
I’ve pondered it and I frankly am not sure where to come down, but given my on the ground view of things let me suggest the following:
(a) If you think things will be done in Iraq like a decent operation in the States or Europe, with transparency and the like, you’re a naïve fool.
(b) The accusations of contracts being corruptly awarded are probably exaggerated, however at the same time as a matter of hedging their risk, I know that Bechtel et al are going with the Big Families – who yes were Sadaam connected. These are the people with capital, and frankly the only ones someone like Bechtel can deal with, unless there are financing facilities for the little players. That has not yet happened.
(c) The accusations about Sadaam ties are likely true and likely equally to be self-serving.
(d) The issue of over-spending is highly anticipatable. Few of the Bechtel or American operators speak the language, they have little ability to get to know the market without intermediaries. A lesson one should take away from the Arab world, the word for client also is a word for sucker. If you can’t verify the market, you are going to get scalped. That’s not so bad so long as the scalping is within reason.
(e) Some of the spending may sound like too much, but one should kick the tires, e.g. buying AK-47s off of the “spot” market in Baghdad might not be a brilliant idea, insofar as you might pump a fuckload of dollars into the wrong people’s hands, and if you’re buying large lots, probably are going to get fucked. Jordanians, then look attractive as you get controlled lots and someone stable to deal with.
(f) The Governing Council has too many sharp operators to fully trust.
In short, I don’t believe the situation is as bad as the article describes, and where it is a bad, there are deep structural reasons that one will largely have to suck up. To be more careful with the money means more bureaucratic paralysis, and that is already a serious obstacle. Suck up the waste.
I hate to defend the CPA on this, but in this particular instance, although the article is probably largely accurate in details, I think the big picture is more important.
Posted by The Lounsbury at October 5, 2003 10:24 AM
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Jan-Dec 2003
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