RSS« Iraq: Phone Licenses (bis) - I questioned the Orascom award, well take a look here | Iraq: on losing »
November 17, 2003
[EDIT] Iraq: Further Discouragement, a local view (a long tirade and analysis in one)
I just came away from a fundamentally discouraging conversation with the head of the US Embassy's economic section here. They're deeply involved with Iraq issues, a lot of the economic planning is running through Amman. In fact, as I noted on a blog elsewhere, I recently had some meet and greets with the folks who are working on consulting on the Baghdad stock exchange - they're running out of here as (i) Iraq is too fucking dangerous to risk high priced folks; (ii) there are historical linkages between the exchanges, so the synergies are natural.
(Let me add this aside: I was having a convo re the situ with one of the Corporate lawyers along on the team, a NYC based chick with substantial experience in East Euro. post communism. I advanced the ob that the situation was somewhat like E. Europe and she went ballastic. Nothing like E. Europe, in E. Europe we were loved and people were "not fucking shooting at consultants." Now I am not sure about the loved, and in fact I agreed, but I was surprised by the vehemence. I presume she's a Republican by nature, but anyone on the ground here can see things are going to shit and there needs to be changes.)
[EDITED to add not: oops I left out the key word that reversed her meaning.
Back to the point, rapping with the aforementioned Embassy contact, I noted I had the above convo (the aside) and observered CPA needed help. My man seemed quite moved on this point, stating that at present efforts are in complete chaos with the June end of occupation thing - there was no prep on this, it's been pulled out of the fucking hat with no clear idea of how to handle transition. He indicated no one knows what is going on, planning for the $20 bill is in chaos as former plans were no way along this sudden volte face. DoD is fighting to retain responsibility over economic issues, although they've done a piss poor job so for (my ob not his, this charcterization), and State and USAId are pushing back (his ob, not phrasing though).
Most worringly, this fellow, very senior, was really pessimistic on current policy. Normally he's pretty cagey, but this time no. I think, like me, he's getting a sense of impending doom. I'm really very serious about that, I feel feel failure creeping up, and perhaps spectacular failure.
I find the military response so far to be deeply puzzling, for example. Given my sense of what the intel is, was and will be, I deeply feel that airstrikes, use of missiles on distant targets and the like can only go wrong. What is needed is counterinsurgency work, which involves on the ground, involves care and involves winning back the population. My Iraqi contacts have grown more and more disgusted, and airstrikes -however much they may preserve precious US soldiers' lives, are a penny wise pound foolish approach (in terms of lives). Certainly they never helped the French in Algeria.
Further, I recall from the Iraqi conference I attended a few weeks back now (bloody hell, behind on my summ of that) an Iraqi standing up to denounce the constant references to the Sunni Triangle. Evidently a Sunni (and pro American by the way) he expressed a growing sense of frustration and denounced the characterization in re issues in the "Sunni Triangle" stating clearly, "this is turning people against you."
Yet the Administration's response so far is chaostic, unplanned, reactive and has the air of desperation.
I no longer feel that the economic opportunities I saw a year ago in connection with this policy, for all that I thought it politically stupid, will appear. The risk of a real crash is now growing and I am not at all, on my ring side seat, encouraged by the application of responses.
Posted by The Lounsbury at November 17, 2003 03:30 PM
Filed Under:
Jan-Dec 2003
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.aqoul.com/movabletype/mt-tb.cgi/1675
