Lounsbury: Iraq: the violence ticks on

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November 05, 2003

Iraq: the violence ticks on

Attacks on the green zone, Spanish diplomats pulling out. Well, I suppose the Administration and the "pre-fooled"'s media campaign of roughly two weeks ago that the "Media" is exagerating problems in Iraq is stillborn.

It makes me recall my arguments on the SDMB with the "pre-fooled" -Sam Stone, december etc - who blithely kept telling me that my reports, reporting back from what I was hearing from Arab, Iraqi, and UN as well as CPA contacts said things were not progressing, etc., were wrong. I did not have the big picture, or whatever. I am sure Stone in particular is in full back-peddle or shamed silence now.

I wonder what those claims would look like now? In many ways it is a deep pity I was right. I would be looking at some really interesting opps for raising an Iraq Fund, etc., instead of this demi-world of "well it has to get better" blather. Now, raising funds, I am not going to gainsay, but at the same time, no, it does not have to get better, it can bloody well get worse. I am hopeful, I would add, that the massive appropriations bill, US $18 odd billion for reconstruction, for all that is it six motherufcking months late, will help get things going.

I remain worried, however, that the idiot ideologues who see Iraq as a blank slate on which they can inscribe their wet dream policies, flat taxes, perfect markets, etc. "transforming" the Middle East will be pushed aside in favor of pragmatism and pragmatic approaches to reworking the Iraqi economy above all, to help get buy in on the Iraqi side. Without that, well let me pimp my favoriate movie in this connection, The Battle of Algiers aka la battaille d'Alger. Colonial warfare, no holds barred. A must see, I note.

Now, a few items on this subject to draw attention to:
Iraqification: Losing Strategy
By Fareed Zakaria
Tuesday, November 4, 2003; Page A2
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A60368-2003Nov3.html

An excellent piece on the dangers of rushing Iraqification for short terms reasons. I find myself oddly in the camp of the same gullible fools who lapped up the initial war justifications, in fearing the Adminsitration will pull a humiliating and transparent 'Iraqification' withdrawal and compound their errors.

Then there is this, from the writer of the "talking points memo" website, which I have grown to like although its politics moderately annoy me.

However, the writer, Marshall, rightly skewers the Orewellian habits of the present Administartion in rewrting its own past comments.

Frankly there is nothing I hate worse than that, it is intellectually dangerous, and leads one into terrible errors - certainly the habit did nothing for the Soviets who were past masters of such games.

Silly word games and weapons of mass destruction
http://www.hillnews.com/marshall/110503.aspx
(also see http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/)

I also wish to share this:
OP-ED COLUMNIST
Death by Optimism
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
Published: November 5, 2003
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/05/opinion/05KRIS.htm

Do read it, Kristoff makes some very fine points on the degree to which our fine fellows, Rummy, Wolfie et al. fooled themselves. Selective reading of information, ideological blinders, imposing what one "knows" on actual data. I rather like Kristoff's sly comparision btw Sadaam's habits and Bush's.

Well, a quote is inorder: " Evidence suggests that Mr. Bush and Dick Cheney may have actually believed that our troops would be, as Mr. Cheney predicted, "greeted as liberators." The administration chose to rely not on intelligence but on wishful thinking, and it became intoxicated by the siren calls of Ahmad Chalabi, a silver-tongued charlatan.

I wish administration officials were lying, because I would prefer hypocrisy to delusion � at least hypocritical officials make decisions with accurate information.

Policy by wishful thinking is crippling our occupation. Initially, U.S. officials didn't restrain looting because they regarded it as celebratory high jinks. Then, confident that security was in hand, they disbanded the Iraqi Army. They didn't push hard to bring in international forces." (emphasis added)

I rather agree.

Ah yes, one more quote, as I can not resist: " Mr. Cheney has cited a Zogby International poll to back his claim that there is "very positive news" in Iraq. But the pollster, John Zogby, told me, "I was floored to see the spin that was put on it; some of the numbers were not my numbers at all."

Mr. Cheney claimed that Iraqis chose the U.S. as their model for democracy "hands down," and he and other officials say that a majority want American troops to stay at least another year. In fact, Mr. Zogby said, only 23 percent favor the U.S. democratic model, and 65 percent want the U.S. to leave in a year or less.

"I am not willing to say they lied," Mr. Zogby said. "But they used a very tight process of selective screening, and when they didn't get what they wanted they were willing to manufacture some results. . . . There was almost nothing in that poll to give them comfort."

Sure, we're making some progress in Iraq. A hand grenade sells for $2.50 now, compared with 10 cents a few months ago. But U.S. troops now face 25 to 30 attacks daily, compared with 15 to 20 in September. Last month 33 Americans were killed, twice as many as in September."

November 05, 2003

Iraq: the violence ticks on

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