Lounsbury: Iraq: business views

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February 16, 2004

Iraq: business views

Came from an interesting dinner this evening with an Indian origin businessman who's been doing work in Iraq for six years.

First, let me say that I found it odd that after roughly six years in Baghdad he doesn't speak a lick of Arabic (or pretends...).

Second, it was an interesting exchange of views. I will spare you the talk re my own projects, rather his views on the general environment. Primo, there is a general sense that things are getting out of control on one level, no one believes that the American plan has any street cred, a self-reinforcing view that tends to undermine influence. There is a widespread sense that CPA is corrupt - something I argued against actually as I think they are not in fact corrupt, but rather that they came in without people like myself and thusly, by lack of lang. and lack of experience in developing countries, are easily sold a line of shit. Easily manipulated.

It strikes me as a strategic error of the first order that the Bush Admin, seeking a rather illusory domestic electoral advantage, has entirely ceded its street cred in Iraq. They have zero initiative at present, and are prey to the changing political landscape. It's sad and deeply dangerous.

On a practical level, my interlocutor noted that Baghad has a strange rhythm. During daylight hours things are near normal, you might not guess there is a war going on (ex-of course the issue of car jackings, and the like), in the evening the armed gangs slowly take over (with the same guard with an AK who protected you earlier on perhaps freelancing on 'the other side'), until by midnight no one sane is out. And so it goes, day after day.

Very clearly no one can think rationally of investing, and we all found it laughable that the CPA still maintains its strange happy talk, which we have all heard, ad nauseum since May, that Iraq is open for business, etc. etc. It reflects... I am not sure what. A surreal sense of the possible? Divorce from the reality? Denial? A sort of stick the fingers in the ears and wah wah wah...?

It's deeply frustating insofar as there is a desperate need to get realistic. Tone down the talk to the possible, set the acheivable aims that can make things appear moving.

The disconnect is palpable.

However, I am no happier with Kery's talk oof pullling out. Perhaps it is necesary to win, but I think it is a mistake to speak in those terms. Without an international presence (but probably not a US led one) Iraq goes to hell. Civil war.

Well, in any case, we all agreed there was money to be made, although perhaps we were a bit ashamed at the mark ups, but then if yo're looking at a serious risk of half a 100 k ton shipment going missing, you need compensation.

February 16, 2004

Iraq: business views

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