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March 29, 2004
Afghanistan, it is a pity that my predictions were spot on
As those who knew me back in my commenting days on a message board called SDMB, I rather strenoushly argued after the fall of the Taleban that the promises of a Marshal plan for Afghanistan, or remaking and saving it from its failed status would be hollow. They will also recall that the pre-fooled argued, oh no, that this would be a real effort.
I share this by way of reminding people, when we are thinking of such situations, it is usually helpful to be boundless cynical:
UN warns on Afghanistan reverting to terrorism
By Hugh Williamson in Berlin and Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad
Published: March 28 2004 21:59 | Last Updated: March 28 2004 21:59
A United Nations body will warn this week that Afghanistan is in danger of reverting to a "terrorist breeding ground" with an economy dependent on the illegal drug trade unless the international community significantly increases development funding to the war-torn country.
...
The report, obtained by the Financial Times, complains that "aid . . . has been much lower than expected or promised. In comparison to other conflict or post-conflict situations Afghanistan appears to have been neglected".
...
The UNDP report notes Iraq is receiving "10 times as much development assistance with roughly the same size of population". Development inflows amount to $67 per person, compared with $248 in Bosnia Herzegovina and $256 in East Timor, according to the report.
The report's strong language increases the likelihood of tough financial negotiations at this week's conference, to be co-chaired by Afghanistan, the UN, Germany and Japan.
The Afghan government is due to present a seven-year, $28bn funding programme, while western governments have indicated that funding commitments, lasting four years at most, are unlikely to exceed the $4.5bn pledged by donors in Tokyo in 2002.
....
The report, which compiles the UN's latest data on Afghanistan, says the country's $4bn estimated GDP is small compared with the $14bn in "military costs" spent annually in Afghanistan by western powers.
Over half the population live in extreme poverty and only Sierra Leone ranks below Afghanistan on the UNDP's human development index. Life expectancy, at below 50, is "similar to that which prevailed in the 19th century in Europe".
Separately, Donald Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, insisted the US had not over looked the terrorist threat from Afghanistan in the days before and after the September 11 attacks.
"If one looks at what was done, we went to Afghanistan - we didn't go to Iraq," he told ABC News.
"It certainly took away their training, their haven and it certainly destroyed the Taliban and eliminated them from running the country. That's what the president's action was. It wasn't Iraq. It was Afghanistan."
Rumsfeld position, of course, is analytically incoherent.
Posted by The Lounsbury at March 29, 2004 01:55 PM
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Jan-Jul 2004
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