Lounsbury: On Yassine, III

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March 24, 2004

On Yassine, III

Machiavelli in the Middle East
By David Ignatius
Tuesday, March 23, 2004; Page A19
[url]http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A16411-2004Mar22.html[/url]

And select quotes:

""It is much safer to be feared than loved," wrote the philosopher Niccolo Machiavelli nearly 500 years ago. That harsh logic can be seen in Israel's assassination Monday of Sheik Ahmed Yassin, the leader of the terrorist group Hamas.

It follows that for Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, it's better to be seen as ruthless than as weak. .... "The message that Israel sent out by assassinating Sheik Ahmed Yassin is that when the disengagement from Gaza is finally implemented, Hamas will not be able to claim that the withdrawal was promoted by the group's operations.""

I may add that the assertion, from an Israeli security commentator, is frankly utterly without logic. Hamas will certainly still claim - and with perhaps some justification - that their Lebanon strategy worked, and that for this the Israelis are lashing out at them. Indeed, by taking this action, Israel has simply affirmed how important Hamas is to the very people who they are trying to convince otherwise.

As I noted prior, Sharon's strategy has a shown a brilliance in achieving exactely the opposite effect desired.

Ingatius notes: "But even Machiavelli believed that intimidation has its limits. Just a few sentences after the famous passage quoted above, he cautioned: "Nevertheless a prince ought to inspire fear in such a way that, if he does not win love, he avoids hatred."

By that Machiavellian measure, Sharon has failed. An enraged Hamas has vowed new suicide bombings in retaliation, and governments across the Middle East and Europe issued statements on Monday condemning Israel. "It's unacceptable, it's unjustified and it's very unlikely to achieve its objective," said British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw. "

Indeed, when fear turns to hatred, one achieves the opposite of the desired effect.

The further question is:
" But will the Israeli operation work? That's the question a modern Machiavelli would ask. ... But even by this test, the assassination seems unlikely to achieve its intended result.

A pragmatic critique came from Sharon's own interior minister, Avraham Poraz. He explained Monday to Israeli reporters why he voted against the operation in a secret cabinet meeting: "I'm afraid that Hamas's motivation will increase. [Yassin] will become some sort of martyr . . . a national hero for them, and, I'm sorry to say, this won't prevent Hamas from continuing its activities.""

Bingo.

"Killing the partially blind and paralyzed Yassin "will only reignite and re-energize Hamas," agreed Daoud Kuttab, a prominent Palestinian journalist. ... And how does Israel imagine that Gaza will be governed once it pulls out? Before the Yassin assassination, Egypt had signaled a willingness to help with security. And Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority had drawn up plans (with the tacit approval of Yassin) for restoring law and order after the Israeli army leaves. Both efforts may now collapse in the uproar over Yassin's death. It's hard to see how Israel will benefit from the resulting anarchy."

However it is easy to see Hamas benefitting. Incorruptible, motivated cadres, the motivation of combined "holy" and nationalistic fervor that was clearly evident in watching the Sats covering the demos. Hamas flags everywhere.

Hamas is the clear winner. And the cadres, they can replace the leadership. It is a modern organization in many respects, more so than the archiac and corrupt PA organizations.

Finally the article closes on this:
" ... there is a deeper issue, one that goes to the heart of Israel's dilemma in dealing with the Arabs. Sharon symbolizes the belief that the Palestinians can be intimidated by military force -- and that peace will be possible only when they are sufficiently weakened and humbled. If Israel is tough enough, by this logic, it will eventually break the Arabs' will and force them to accept Israel's right to exist.

That rationale sent Israeli tanks rolling into Lebanon 22 years ago, in an operation Sharon believed would break the PLO and open the way to peace. But it didn't work out that way, and many Israelis now agree that the Lebanon war was a costly failure."

Further..." they [Israel] should consider the evidence of more than two decades that Sharon's approach isn't working. Rather than being humbled into submission, the Palestinians have embraced a strategy of suicidal rage."

The question is what exit from nihilistic violence? I rather think the author is wrong in suggesting Machiavelli was wrong, it is safer for Israel to be feared, but not to be hated with a suicidal rage - for that only begats unending terror for there is no defeating short of genocide an enemy who cares not if he dies in taking you with him.

March 24, 2004

On Yassine, III

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