Lounsbury: Cole on Iraq

« as-Sadr - Martyr upcoming? | Iraq: Conference and Shiites »

August 13, 2004

Cole on Iraq - as-Sadr

Juan Cole has an interesting commentary at http://www.juancole.com/2004_08_01_juancole_archive.html#109237845611257539 that is worth noting:

Note that al-Shinabi called him "Sayyid" Muqtada. A Sayyid is a putative descendant of the Prophet Muhammad. Sayyids have a special status in Muslim societies, and even moreso in Shiite Islam. Tribesman see Sayyids as almost magical purveyors of blessings from God.

Muqtada al-Sadr is not just any Sayyid. He is the son of Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr, who is almost universally idolized for his strong stance in the mid- to -late 1990s against Saddam Hussein, who had him killed in Najaf in 1999. The Americans and the Allawi government increasingly look to pious Shiites as though they are very little different from Saddam. Muqtada is also the son-in-law of Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr, the theorist of an Islamic state for Iraq whom Saddam had executed in 1980.

The Americans and Allawi cannot compete with Muqtada's religious authority. They also cannot stop his movement by killing him. Muqtada's favorability rating was 68% according to the CPA's own polling last May. It may well be higher now. (It is often argued that Najaf inhabitants hate Muqtada and his Mahdi Army, which justifies the US assault. It is true that Muqtada and his men are not from Najaf and are resented there, but Muqtada does have substantial support in many other southern Shiite cities, so that weakens the argument that he is not liked.)

Although Muqtada and his men are now under siege, Waco-style, it is not for sure that the Marines can capture or kill him. I suspect Najaf is crisscrossed by underground tunnels, which is how Muqtada and others used to evade Saddam's secret police.

If he is trapped in the shrine, and the siege goes on very long, that in itself could inflame Shiite passions against the US. Remember that Waco was in the back of the mind of Timothy McVeigh, who later blew up a Federal building.

My guess is that if Muqtada is killed, and maybe also if he is captured and imprisoned, that will tip the Sadr movement into conducting a long-term low-intensity guerrilla war, similar to what Sunni radicals and Arab nationalists have done in the Sunni heartland for the past 16 months. The south had been much quieter than the Sunni Arab areas, but I suspect that calm can no longer be taken for granted. The question is what happens to the Iraqi government if it faces two major guerrilla insurgencies going on at the same time.

Emphasis added.

Some points of Cole's commentary are speculative and arguable. However, I note the congruence with Hoagland's commentary yesterday. Place that in the context of Cole's observations, who certainly knows more about Shi'a than I do.

Overall, it does strike me that severe strategic errors are being made, largely through lack of comprehension of the opinion dynamics in Iraq, The expression Pyrrhic Victories comes to mind immediately when examining what is going on in Iraq right now.

Of course among the challenges is that there are no longer good options, nor even mediocre options. Rather, there are different levels of bad.

On one hand, in order to see an Allaouie government survive the US needs to be active. On the other hand having pissed away credibility and good will so very needlessly, almost any action will be interpreted negatively.

In that context, it is a matter of managing the downside, not pretending there is some magical upside.

First, losing the Shi'a is a disaster. Not just for yours truly (who presently is watching a beautiful option slowly, slowly sink further and further out of the money. The Zombie should be renamed the Titanic.) but for the general project.

As I said a few days ago, it is difficult to see ways to avoid a Lebanese civil war type situation, and the blundering ad hoc actions of the US are not making it any easier to be optimistic.

August 13, 2004

Cole on Iraq - as-Sadr

Trackback Pings

Comments

Comment Subscription