Lounsbury: An analysis of Iraq going forward

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September 03, 2004

An analysis of Iraq going forward

Thanks to my old man SimonX:

http://www.riia.org/pdf/research/mep/BP0904.pdf?PHPSESSID=92ff63f04b89e1819a45becec8a7a968
MIDDLE EAST PROGRAMME BP 04/02 SEPTEMBER 2004
IRAQ IN TRANSITION:VORTEX OR CATALYST?

Before I comment on this, let me let everyone read it.

I have to say it is an analysis I largely agree with in broad strokes, in terms of possible scenarios, again in broad strokes.

I note Juan Cole links to this as well, although he notes he does not feel the break up scenario is a high likelihood event due to the strength of Iraqi nationalism. I think this mis-specifies the problem (although if one takes break up to be purely an issue of state-nationalism he is right).

I see, in any case, that they refer to the Balkans rather than Lebanon for their example in re the Lebononization.

Aside to Simon, I really do hope you tormet my old friend Sam with this - you should recall for him he was predicting the Shia would welcome a long term US presence....

September 03, 2004

An analysis of Iraq going forward

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