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September 23, 2004
What might be done in Iraq?
The question posed in comments is perhaps inexact, for there are several ranges of answers depending on the time frame engaged.
I might answer differently should we believe that the Bush Administration will be magically transformed in the next few weeks or after the elections. I do not believe that, so let me address the question in the context of a Kerry victory (which looks less utterly unlikely as compoared to the past few weeks, although were I a betting man - which I am not - I would not play this).
First, let us presume continued ingerance and bumbling on until January.
The menu of options inherited is grim, but perhaps not impossible.
First, it strikes me that a less petulantly obtuse diplomatic stance, combined with global relief to be free of the idiot, genuinely opens up the possibility of some internaitonalization, meaning some limited legitimacy to be obtained. Obviouslythere is no magical resolution, but a potential for a slight change in dynamic. A change that has the potential for pulling Iraq out of the nose dive. Not for a real upside but just perhaps the chance to create a shitty little dictatorship rather than a bloody civil war.
Second, in terms of the achievable, I believe the Agency report lays that out well enough. the issue is I do not see the upside being achievable in the context of an Administration (i) so entirely incapable of admitting (internally) and engaging its errors in a timely and efficacious manner, (ii) entirely incapable of leaving aside its ideologiy for a durable pragmatism, not a mere momentary recourse to a faux pragmatism driven by desperation, (iii) and in the same manner is entirely incapable of engaging the international community - and by engaging I mean neither berating with a groundless triumphalism or narrow and essentially empty egoism nor momentarily giving a entirely unconvincing 'engagement' as in the 'road map for peace'
In short, the potential presented by Kerry is not one where suddenly Iraq is not a disster of a once in a century importance, but rather there is an occasion to limit it getting even worse. Make no mistake, it is quite possible for Iraq to get worse. Whether a sudden withdrawal leaving Iraq as a failed state in the grip of a civil war, or the continued bumbling along with rising casulaties on both sides, with ever deepening hatred of the United States rising throughout the region, rising in the Islamic world, with ever deepening sympathy for the extremist radicals.
It is, then, not a question of the United States achieving something in Iraq, but rather not achieving yet more very fundamental damage to both its reputation and its position and power. The 'achievement is then negative, a matter of limiting damage. It could be that Kerry will put together a team that will be rather more talented than I expect, but event he most talented is unlikely to be able unable to unwid this
Posted by The Lounsbury at September 23, 2004 09:29 AM
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Aug-Dec 2004
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