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November 17, 2004

Iraq Art: Key analysis

Analysis

Troops Climbing First Rung of Steep Ladder

By Thomas E. Ricks

Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, November 17, 2004; Page A15

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A55407-2004Nov16.html
The following caught my attention:

But some other experts think the insurgency is more robust than that.

Maj. Adam Strickland, a Marine specializing in insurgency issues, said that speaking for himself and not for the Corps, he thinks the anti-U.S. fighters are hardly on the run. "This was simply the insurgents testing our resolve and strength, as well as their own," he said. "They will simply fall back a phase in the classic Maoist struggle."

White, whose analyses over the last 18 months generally have been far more prescient in discerning trends than official U.S. government pronouncements, [interjection: how surprising is this?] said he worries that the insurgency is showing new capabilities, with better command and control across the Sunni part of the country. "What we are seeing is organized, regionwide resistance," he said. "The resistance is fighting harder, smarter and more effectively than the Iraqi military did during the war."

One expert who has served in Iraq, in the Army and in the private sector, said he worries that if that is the case, the coming months will bring several more Fallujah-like fights. "It has evolved into one big vendetta -- a blood feud between us and the Sunnis," he said, speaking anonymously because his company would not allow him to be quoted by name.

Likewise, a security consultant in a similar position in Baghdad said that in his view, the insurgency is becoming increasingly tough, in part because it is gaining more popular support.

"We are without allies amongst the Iraqi populace, including those who have benefited from the ouster of Saddam," said this Special Forces veteran, who speaks Arabic. "Across Baghdad, Latifiyah, Mahmudiyah, Salman Pak, Baqubah, Balad, Taji, Baiji, Ramadi and just about everywhere else you can name, the people absolutely hate us. . . . The Iraqi people have not bought into what the Americans are selling, and no amount of military activity is going to change this fact."

He argued that the United States should simply freeze all attempts at reconstruction at this point and send the contractors home, telling the Iraqi people, "Call us when you want help."

Emphasis added.The last comment matches my sense. Not quite willing to throw in the towel, as my struggle on Steel shows, but it is a hard self sell.

November 17, 2004

Iraq Art: Key analysis

Analysis

Troops Climbing First Rung of Steep Ladder

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