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February 2005 Archives

February 28, 2005

Leb Gov - boom.

Well, where is this going to go?

And most importantly, what are the Shia thinking?

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Behind but some Media and Arabic things

I share this thanks to Istara, via a different link from Abu Aardvark:
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2005/02/27/us_planning_arab_language_tv_broadcasts_to_europe/?rss_id=Boston.com+%2F+News

Dumb. Very dumb.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

February 24, 2005

Dollar, FT Obs

Worth noting for the record, such as it is:

Dollar scare reveals fragile support
Published: February 24 2005 02:00 | Last updated: February 24 2005 02:00
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/7468d91e-860b-11d9-b506-00000e2511c8.html

Crisis over? Not really. For sure, the market overreacted to reports that the Bank of Korea wanted to reduce the share of dollars in its portfolio. What the Koreans actually said was that they want to diversify out of low-yielding US Treasuries into higher yielding securities, which could include riskier US assets as well as non-US government bonds. And they intend to do so by diversifying the flow of reserves, not the $200bn (£105bn) stock. But while Tuesday's sell-off was founded on error, it nonetheless exposed the underlying weakness of the US currency. If the mighty dollar can be rocked by a single paragraph in a report to the Korean parliament something is amiss.

That something is the dependence of the dollar on a handful of Asian central banks, which between them control $2,400bn reserves. These reserves are already large relative to the size of the Asian economies, and getting bigger by the day. As they grow so does the incentive to guard against capital loss from further dollar depreciation.

More in the editorial. Useful for reminding us of the instability.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

On Egypt

The Washington Post, making up for a moronic editorial on Lebanon gets back in its game on this issue:

Editorial
Egypt's Brutal Answer
Thursday, February 24, 2005; Page A20
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A48688-2005Feb23.html

ON MONDAY President Bush again called on Egypt to "lead the way" toward democratic change in the Middle East. Apparently Hosni Mubarak, the country's leader for the past 24 years, wasn't listening. Later that same day, Mr. Mubarak's agents renewed their "interrogation" of Ayman Nour, the imprisoned head of the liberal Tomorrow Party. Six hours later -- at 1 a.m. -- Mr. Nour, a diabetic with a history of heart trouble, was "sweating, vomiting and holding his left arm," his wife told the Reuters news agency. Authorities refused his doctor's request that he be hospitalized; instead, he was taken Tuesday to a prison clinic. The Egyptian Human Rights Organization has issued a statement warning that Mr. Nour's life is in danger. Mr. Mubarak's relationship with the United States, and the U.S. aid that props up his regime, should be in danger too.

Emphasis added
One can only hope so.

I am not a fan, as anyone who reads me knows, of long ball transformation crap.

I prefer evolutionary work. However, Egypt is a genuine abcess, and worst of all, unlike Syria, one where everyone can point its finger at the United States (and to a lesser extent, 'The West') for helping create. Mubarek is a whore, but as I noted, we ain't no kinda pimp.
..... Last fall Mr. Nour managed to legally register the Tomorrow Party; authorities may have calculated he would split the opposition without attracting a significant following. Instead, Mr. Nour almost immediately began campaigning against Mr. Mubarak's plans to reelect himself as president in an uncontested "referendum" later this year. A movement he helped to organize, popularly known by its slogan of "kifaya," or "enough," has been holding unprecedented public demonstrations. The first one in December attracted about 50 people; the fourth, on Monday at Cairo University, gathered more than 500.

Those of you who have never been to Egypt may not understand what those numbers mean. Trivial on one level, Egypt is a real police state where large gatherings get you into serious trouble. The Blue Tin Cans come around and then you get to show everyone the Circus of the Damned schtick - get bundled up all nice in the Blue Tin Cans, but you can stick your pitiful little hands out the window, and then the trucks trundle around - an obvious statement.

The charge against Mr. Nour, that he is responsible for the forgery of some of the petitions submitted to register his party, is dismissed as groundless by independent Egyptian lawyers. In truth, he is in jail because, like Rafiq Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister who was assassinated last week, he offered a fresh democratic alternative in a Middle East stirred by the votes of Iraqis and Palestinians. Mr. Nour, like most of the rest of the Egyptian opposition, is not proposing a revolution. Their demand is that Mr. Mubarak lift repressive "emergency" laws and agree to constitutional reforms that would make future elections democratic. Many Egyptian activists, like Mr. Nour, would probably agree to an extension of the president's term in exchange for his commitment to the constitutional change. The alternative, they point out, is not the "stability" Mr. Mubarak claims to offer, but merely more of the stagnation that has made Egypt a prime breeding ground for Islamic extremists, including many of the leaders of al Qaeda.

Well, leaving aside the absurd Rafiq Hariri reference (fresh?!? All one needs to do is get assasinated to get some post mortem lionization I guess).

I find the Iraqi connexion suspect, it's not a big lesson yet. It may be soon, but not yet.

The Bush administration has been relatively assertive in protesting Mr. Nour's imprisonment, but Mr. Mubarak has been provocative in his defiance. Last week Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice hinted she might not attend an upcoming meeting in Egypt of the Arab League and the Group of Eight industrial nations if Mr. Nour's case was not resolved; Mr. Mubarak responded by canceling the meeting. His answer to Mr. Bush's appeal for steps toward reform has been to order a new wave of anti-American incitement in the state-run press and to have his goons rough up a man who proposes exactly the moderate, step-by-step change that Mr. Bush advocates -- and that Egypt desperately needs. Mr. Mubarak is no longer testing Mr. Bush; he is spitting in his face. It's a daring, maybe desperate act for a 76-year-old despot who would not survive without billions in U.S. subsidies. Egypt's future -- and Ayman Nour's life -- may depend on Mr. Bush's response.

Rather than Syria, Egypt. If Bush is serious, this is the place. If Syria goes to hell... well the West never was Syria's friend and the blame is not really there. Egypt....showing one is willing to put the corrupt shrimp eating fat bastard in his place would be a very good thing.

Even if it risked a serious confrontation. Mubarek is a false friend.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

A Really Bad Idea.

Pentagon Seeking Leeway Overseas
Operations Could Bypass Envoys
By Ann Scott Tyson and Dana Priest
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, February 24, 2005; Page A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A48522-2005Feb23?language=printer

Let me say one thing: Very, stunningly bad idea. Giving Pentagon, which in my opinion shows what I would politely call limited understanding of overseas environments, freedom from CIA and DCM oversight is a very bad idea. An accident waiting to happen.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Beware of Druuze Bearing Gifts

A thought if I may.
From here:
Druze Warlord Turns NeoCon
http://zenpundit.blogspot.com/2005/02/druze-warlord-turns-neocon-walid.html

Let me expand. I saw David Ignatius' column in The Washington Post and though I like Ignatius, I was underwhelmed. Arab Zaims speaking nice English. Like Allaouie.

I continue to be amused I may add by the naive loinization of Hariri. I guess it's convenient, but really kids... It's this sort of stuff that gets one fucked over.

Expanding on the thought, I see a whole bunch of American Conservos are getting all happy (a la Friedman) about a "Baghdad Spring. I suppose the easy Cold War analogies are attractive. Easy. Understandable. False.

Lebanon is not caught in an ideological conflict (excluding the Maronite Fascists with their silly "we're not Arabs, we're Phoenicians" issues), we're looking at sectarian conflict. This is as much Leb-Leb as not, and Syria is not the most dangerous point here (I add you should not be suckered either by statement they are pulling out. It's a two step, I'll bet my salary on it. Buying time, typical Shami Shyster game), the danger is a Shia-Other Leb conflict.

The Economist has a useful article to pull you all back to the reality of Leb politics (as opposed to the silly ideological readings)
Lebanon
Death of a statesman
Feb 17th 2005 | BEIRUT
From The Economist print edition
http://economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3672661

Okay, let's pass over the statesman appelation for the moment.

What I wished to highlight are the following:

He made enemies along the way. Many accused him of allowing Syria, whose troops and spies underpinned the peace, to tighten its hold over Lebanon. But Mr Hariri's wealth and powerful friends, such as France's Jacques Chirac, allowed him a certain independence from Syria.

How winds change.

Popular anger against Syria and its stooges has reinvigorated Lebanon's opposition. An emerging alliance of former foes from across the sectarian spectrum has taken the tragedy as an opportunity to push its agenda. Some, such as the Druze chieftain, Walid Jumblatt, now openly demand that Syria end its 27-year presence. Others have called for the resignation of Lebanon's own government. The normally quiescent Maronite church, Lebanon's largest, explicitly charged what it called Lebanon's “dictatorial regime” with responsibility for Mr Hariri's murder.

Well, the word quiescent and "Maronite Church" do not normally go together in my opinion.

Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Shia party-cum-militia Hizbullah (a key Syrian ally), respectfully describes the slain prime minister as having been the only solid bridge between the opposition and Syria.

and most importantly:
What unites Syria's allies is not simply that they have profited from Syria's presence. They also share historical resentment at the traditional sway held by the very groups coalescing against them, which now include Mr Hariri's Sunnis in addition to Druze and Maronites. Perhaps more importantly, they also fear that Lebanon's opposition represents a spearhead for American and Israeli influence. This, of course, is a view shared by Syria's sole regional ally, Iran, which offered Syria its unflinching support this week.

Read here: the always excluded, ever down trodden Shia see themselves benefiting from the Alaouite led Syrian presence, while if they leave, the Druuze and the Maronis and the Sunnis get back to their old bad habits.

As I noted elsewhere, Hizbullah is Lebanese and has a lot of Baraka left over from it's bloodying the Israelis nose. You ain't seen nothing until you've seen an Orthodox Xian Leb woman argue violently with a Maronite about how "good" Hizbullah is.

Where this goes is anyone's guess, but misreading the events in a Cold War framework is a deep error.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

On Credit Cards and Keyboards

A bemused note on Credit Cards and Key Boards.

First, on Key Boards, I share with you the stunning information that if you spill turkish coffee on your fancy schmancy wireless super keyboard, afterwards it ceases to work quite so well.

Second, on Credit Cards. There is a connexion. As I am soon off to Dubai and as Dubai is Gadget Land, I can replace several items (including cell phone, I share with you the observation that dropping your fancy schmancy cell phone into the sink has a decidedly negative effect on its functionality). However, one does need of course some liquidity, and of course Credit Card does indeed do that. However, my Western CC freaks out when I go to strange places unannounced. So, I have to ring them to let them know I am going to place X, Y or Z. They never fail to inform me the Bank does not really like have clients like me, i.e. expatriated ones.

However, at the same time, although I have never requested a credit line increase, they up it without fail. It really is at an absurd level now. I could, in a fit of madness, but a car on my Visa card. Of course, it would be a fit of madness but I really have to wonder about their control systems. Primarily as I am always being flagged for the spending I do undertake, never more than a few K here and there, but often in strange places (relative to the clientele they aim for) and sustained as such. I am a problem client. Yet, I am a good client. Their risk managers really should have capped off these increases some time ago since it would only take one little fit of madness and then settling down in a suspect jurisdiction to engage in a nice fat operation.

Of course, the relevance here is simply reflecting on remaining issues for Expats. It's easier than it once was, but personal finance items are getting both harder and easier from various points of view (e.g. the irritation of US Patroit Act nonsense and the stupid costs it imposes).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

February 23, 2005

Asian CBs diversifying

Financial Times yesterday:

Markets fall as Asian banks move away from dollar
By Song Jung-a in Seoul and Chris Giles and Steve Johnson in London
Published: February 22 2005 20:15 | Last updated: February 22 2005 20:15

Financial markets reversed on Tuesday amid concerns that Asian central banks were diversifying out of US dollar assetsand that demand for oil would remain persistently strong.

The dollar fell sharply in foreign exchange markets, crude oil prices jumped back above $50 a barrel and stock prices declined worldwide, bringing an unwelcome shock to investors.

The dollar suffered its biggest fall since October as South Korea said it would diversify the currencies in which it holds its $200bn of foreign exchange reserves, up to 90 per cent of which may be in dollar-denominated assets.

The move reignited fears that Asian central banks may be losing their appetite for the dollar at a time when the US needs to attract $2bn of foreign capital a day to cover its current account deficit.

The dollar lost much of the ground it had gained in 2005, falling 1.3 per cent against both the euro and yen to $1.323 and Y104.10 respectively, as well as sliding 1.8 per cent to a seven-year low of Won1,005 against the South Korean currency.

........

Gold shares rose, as April gold futures surged by $7.40 to close at $435.80 an ounce in New York.

The dollar movements were triggered by a parliamentary report from the Bank of Korea that said it would increase investments in high-yielding non-government debt, such as papers issued by financial institutions and asset-backed securities, and diversify its holdings into a variety of currencies.

"We have already been reducing the portion of dollar-denominated assets while increasing that of non-dollar assets. And we will continue to do so gradually," said a BoK official. "It's a global trend that central banks diversify into non-government papers as their reserves increase." The move follows similar announcements from Thailand, Taiwan and Indonesia. It reflects Asian governments' increasing concern that a falling dollar could reduce their reserves unless they diversify their currency holdings.

........

Emphasis added.

Well, looks like we're off the new year bounce. I is very happy I moved a good portion of me dollars at the right time. Still to USD exposed, but the whiplash is not so bad.

However, the follow on:

Dollar stabilises as Korea clarifies plans
By Steve Johnson in London
Published: February 23 2005 11:49 | Last updated: February 23 2005 11:49

The US dollar clawed back a fraction of Tuesday’s sharp losses in European trade on Wednesday as South Korea clarified its plans to diversify its foreign exchange reserves and Japan said it had no plans to sell dollars.

The Bank of Korea had precipitated Tuesday’s dollar sell-off when it said it planned to diversify its $200bn of reserves, between 70 and 90 per cent of which are estimated to be in dollar-denominated assets.

However the BoK said in a statement on Wednesday that it was looking to invest more in non-government bonds and that it would not sell “current” dollar holdings for other currencies.

This, of course still left room for Seoul to re-direct new reserves away from the dollar. “This would seem to us to indicate that the BoK was specifically talking about diversifying any additional reserves that it might accrue through the coming fiscal year rather than the reserves it has already built up,” said Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York.

Japan, which has the world’s largest forex reserves, also clarified its intentions. Masatsugu Asakawa, director of the foreign exchange market division at the ministry of finance, told Reuters that “we have no plans to change the composition of currency holdings in the foreign reserves and we are not thinking about expanding our euro holdings”. ..... .......

Also, via my only "friend" (ha.): A resume of Beeb coverage http://www.livejournal.com/community/usdollar/15891.htm

* South Korea, which has about $200bn in foreign reserves, said it plans instead to boost holdings of currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollar.
* Compiled by Central Banking Publications and sponsored by the UK's Royal Bank of Scotland, the survey found 39 nations out of 65 questioned were increasing their euro holdings, with 29 cutting back on the US dollar.
* Concerns over the dollar's outlook, and rising oil prices pushed down US shares on Tuesday. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 1.6%, while the Nasdaq lost 1.3%.
* Analysts, however, pointed to the dollar's inability recently to extend that rally despite positive economic and corporate data, and highlighted the fact that many of the US's economic problems had not disappeared.

The comment at starti s re the seasonality of the move. However, depending on the simple average of the past five years Euro-Dollar percent changes seems off, have to reflect for second when I have time.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Perfect

I have only this to highlight today:
http://www.dilbert.com/comics/dilbert/archive/dilbert-20050223.html

"The key to getting bonuses is acting surprised later."

Perfect.

Otherwise, I have to get back to drawing highly suspicious conclusions to sell this damned proposal. Dirty, nope, I leased out my conscience. Sort of a buy back arrangement with a big residual value ballon.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:36 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

February 22, 2005

al-Jazeerah

Still swamped, next few days are rough, turning down dinner invites to move this out. Sharing with you this, more for the knee jerkers I have not frightened away:
Al Jazeera on the Zawahiri video
http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2005/02/al_jazeera_on_t.html

I did not catch this I may add. I'm getting an LCD screen suntan. Really would be cool to get a Sat Connexion in the office, but too much of a pain.

Otherwise, had the convo with the Dev Fund folks. Not so interesting, want a reloco to some place "civilized" and no promise of reloco back to where the action is at. Sounds like they're going for the throwing darts from afar model that has worked so brilliantly so far for dev funds. (that's sarcasm by the way)

Not really my cup of tea. Well, maybe we'll have another convo.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:55 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

February 21, 2005

Heading out [edited to add reference] (Arab Street)

Trying to write up something coherent on potential sectoral strategies without any data. Fucking brilliant, I say. Convincing? I hope so. Get data you say, I laugh. This is MENA. Statistics department treats all current data as a state secret. You can only imagine what hell I have to go through to get a bloody Central Bank administrative reg laying out the guidelines for interest rate swaps. Theoretically public, but....

Otherwise, a few amusing round ups:

Although I know it will drive certain of my knee jerk American Pseudo Con readers crazy, I provide you with this entertaining link to Angry Arab on the Arab Sats:
http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2005/02/angry-arab-guide-to-middle-east-media_19.html
I found it amusing. The core observations are useful, although the abuse he heaps on al-Arabiyah is, in my opinion way off base with the exception of his rightfully noting signs of pressure not to hit KSA, go soft. A lesson for the knee jerkers thinking "privatization" means better. Market context, know it, love it, understand or get fucked with no lube at all. As you can tell, our man has some issues with the Lebanese Xian Right. I have not bother to look into his background, but I am guessing Palestinian or Lebanese Xian, and of course quite a Lefty.

Regardless, for those of you with firing neurons, you can tease out interesting core observations from his entertaining rant. I note he gets LBC entirely right, but appears to think LebSlut Broadcasting Corp is a bad thing. Well, I do suppose some effort to be a little less vapid might make the eye candy more watchable.

I also note that his carping about quality of Arabic is pretty typical of the Arab left. I know a top economist back there (The East) who tells me he ceased to write in Arabic on economic issues for this reason. Purists. On the other hand, he has a point regarding the Lebs. But then the Egyptians speak piss poor formal Arabic and that doesn't seem to irritate him. Still, one has to be a real stick up the ass to bitch about al-Arabiyah Arabic. Else, I note his "guide" is really Sham plus Gulf. Suggests to me Palestinian. I also note I think he more or less nails al-Hurrah. The station is so lunatically poorly positioned vis-a-vis the audience that it really does feel like a con job. I should share that USG types in the feel have told me their read on it is similar.

Regardless, for the adults out there, interesting if flawed, but amusing recap.

I also share this for its pure amusement value:
http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2005/02/this-arabic-website-translated-my-post.html
This Arabic website translated my post on Hariri (Myth and Reality) from below. But they translated "brothels" as "fancy beauty parlors." I was amused.

I am as well. Fancy beauty parlors. That's really priceless.

Else, this arty via our Angry Axe Grinder Arab is useful:
Why 'Mr Lebanon' had many enemies
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1418516,00.html

The key issue at the moment is no one really knows what the bomb was. I frankly am not buying quick off the cuff estimates on its sophistication or not (and given there is a little island a motor boat ride away with plenty of freelance bombers for hire, not particularly convincing as to being conclusive as to foreign intel or not).

Nevertheless, the Syrians have announced a troop pullback, which is probably a facade to let off steam, a little two step.

Let me (and I am confess this is prompted by Abu Aardvark) link to an interesting poll out of The Center for Strategic Studies, Univ of Jordan.
http://www.css-jordan.org/new/index.html

The relevant docy is Revisiting The Arab Street

I note the following: (i) I have not read this closely, actually got in ... never mind; (ii) I highly recommend the source. I know the authors personally, Fares Braizat, who is the mover behind this is a great guy and Mustafa Hamarneh is also very interesting. Full disclosure. In re Fares and Mustafa's bro, I have done / do business with them. Nothing regarding this topic though.

Regardless, although I may appear to be pimping amigos, I hold these guys in high regard. Now, of course, I have to find the time to actually read it.

Added again to give you a teaser:
Overview of Findings
The study draws seven conclusions:
1) Arabs hold coherent notions of what constitute the values of Western and Arab
societies. They associate the West with individual liberty and wealth, while they
view themselves as emphasizing religion and family.
2) Arab perceptions of Western societal and cultural values do not determine their
attitudes toward Western foreign policies.
3) Religion is not the basis of tension between Arabs and the West.
4) The Arab world does not reject the professed goals of the West�s foreign policies
toward the Arab World, but rather objects to the discrepancy between professed
ideals and perceived reality.
5) Arabs disagree fundamentally with US positions on issues such as the definition of
terrorism, the Arab-Israeli conflict, and war in Iraq.
6) Despite disagreements and disillusionments, many Arabs desire stronger relations
between their countries and the West.
7) Arab dissatisfaction with US policies is unlikely to diminish in the absence of
significant US foreign policy changes.

I'll have to dig into this when I get a chance, regardless, let me reiterate, Braisat and Hamarneh are top notch in my opinion.

Added:
Final addition, I wanted to link to this amusing overview of the whacky Bawaba story:
http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2005/02/haife_wahbi_rei.html

Nota bene, when I refer to LebSlut, this is what I am refering to. My office features these kinds of features.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

February 18, 2005

War Helps Recruit Terrorists [Edited]

I share this from yesterday, on

washingtonpost.com
War Helps Recruit Terrorists, Hill Told
Intelligence Officials Talk Of Growing Insurgency
By Dana Priest and Josh White
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, February 17, 2005; Page A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A28876-2005Feb16?language=printer

My amigos of course arrived at this conclusion some time back, but processing I guess. Certainly the "Pimp" had the opinion when he came in from Baghdad.

That aside, I have to run out of town shortly, babysitting and wining and dining.

I am pleased to note my discussions with the Fund are proceeding.

EDIT
Delayed, but interesting weekend coming up, wining and dining with Central Bankers. Let's see if anything interesting happens. Big Swinging....

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:26 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

February 16, 2005

A Fine Understatement

From this article: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&e=2&u=/nm/20050216/ts_nm/iran_blast_dc
"This explosion basically sent chills down the spines of futures traders," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron Trading Corp in Chicago.

Not just the futures traders of course.

And I say, Leb securities. Don't be long.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:39 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Hariri and Idiotic Editorials

From The Washington Post
Murder in Beirut
Wednesday, February 16, 2005; Page A18
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27661-2005Feb15.html

The despicable murder of Mr. Hariri benefits no one outside the rogue regime in Damascus -- and the world should respond accordingly.

Benefits no one but Damascus? What are they blithering about? There are all kinds of people this can benefit, all kinds. Of course if one has blinders on and doesn't know the region....

The worst part is this piece of idiocy:
If the assassination of Mr. Hariri -- the most plausible leader of a truly independent Lebanon -- looks like the panicked act of a cornered tyrant, the shoe snugly fits Mr. Assad.

Panicked Syria?

As for Hariri, most plausible? I have nothing against the guy, but hey WP - might want to reflect on Harriri's financial murkiness.

No, I am sorry, this is the worst part:
The Bush administration has rightly responded assertively to this act of terrorism. Yesterday the State Department announced the withdrawal of the U.S. ambassador from Syria; at the United Nations, the United States and France jointly sponsored a Security Council statement asking Secretary General Kofi Annan to investigate the bombing. Such a probe, like those of many previous Lebanese political killings, may lead nowhere, so the Bush administration should meanwhile work with France to raise the pressure on Syria to comply with Resolution 1559.

No, the French responded assertively in a well-balanced measure that did not put themselves too far out front of the facts. Of course, for good reason, while Syria or rather a Syrian faction remains a plausible candidate, the French know that Leb politics and MENA politics (and the mafia dirt connexions of Hariri) make it unwise to get too far out in front.

America - the bumbling fool. WP, the bumbling enabler.

Another comment: I am afraid I just do not support the conclusion "sophisticated bomb" = gov intel agency. People are leaping to conclusions. I think we all know what happened last time such conclusion leaping occured. Like the "rods." No, a short motor boat ride away from Beirut gets one to a place where people skilled in bombing can be hired.

Further thought:
Now, as to who did the Hariri bombing, nobody knows. My general POV is that it is very unhelpful for the US and others of official character to jump to conclusions. The French response, stern, measured but diplomatic (insisting on international inquiry, etc.) was the proper one. The US cowboy reaction, clumsy, bumbling and maladroit, was not.

Syrian intel (I very much doubt an approved op) might be behind this. But then Hariri had a lot of enemies - some of which would well profit from the Syrians getting blamed for this. It ain't a clean world, and Hariri was not a clean boy. There are lots of people out there with reason to want to blow him to fuck and back.

However, thinking this was a US OP is equally ridiculous. Nothing in it suggests US, and frankly I think the US lacks the assets to pull something like that off without the whole world knowing about it. Some comments alluded to DoD. They give DoD far too much credit to think. If there is a US angle, it is clumsily glomming on to a perceived opportunity, not making the opportunity.

So, here are the lessons for the knee jerkers (Left and Right):
(a) Not all bombs in the Middle East are genuinely political.
(b) Insofar as corruption and business involve government, (and boy do they here), Politics and Mafia can go hand in hand.
(c) This is the World Center of Scheming. The obvious is not necessarily the correct choice. See Sadaam and the NBC weapons dance.
(d) It's best to take a measured approach, facts may come out that make you look like a fucking moron if you charge ahead (See Iraq, NBC weapons, US claims; similarly, US, Lebanon, Syria, undiplomatic statements, knee jerking over-reaction on too swift a time table).

Lesson in sum: Patience and skill are needed now, the region is already a tinderbox now, I don't need this idiotic American administration making my life more dangerous, let alone harder to do business, the clumsy morons.

Added Thought:
A problem here is this has the potential to seriously escalate and could tip Lebanon back into civil war, for example. A destabilized Lebanon falling slowly back into civil war is a BAD THING, rather like squeezing lighter fluid into a open flame. Maybe it doesn't blow back, but the potential is there. The issue here is the idjits who run US MENA policy are not looking at the spectrum of risk, they're looking at their fuck up in Iraq and trying to find scapegoats (Syria, Bad Syria). Especially nice weak incompetent scapegoats (Syria, very good choice; Syrian admin can't tie its shoe laces).

Or to go back to my business analogy, the bumblers have seen a new product they want to launch, and they're just 100 percent sure it will fly, although none of the marketing data is in.

Finally a link to Cole's discussion:
http://www.juancole.com/2005/02/hariri-murder-provokes-political-split.html

A few comments on some statements:
In a sense, it does not any longer matter who precisely was behind the blast. The political opposition in Lebanon has made up its mind whom to blame. It is not that they are necessarily wrong. On any list of suspects in the killing of Hariri, the Syrians would have to rank high. They had means, motive and opportunity-- which does not, however, establish that they murdered Hariri.

Absolutely agree.

The other angle, of al-Qaeda-like groups hitting out at Saudi-related targets (Hariri had Saudi citizenship), cannot in my view be dismissed. (If, as is now being reported, the blast was in part the work of a suicide bomber, that would rule out a mafia-type business dispute). Given the 250,000 tons of missing munitions in Iraq, there are lots of very high-powered explosives on the market in the Middle East.

Here, not so agreed. I don't view the mafia-type business dispute versus politics versus religion as either/or/or. Above all given some of the folks one has to deal with in the construction industry. A suicide bomber (a real one rather than a dupe, for example) does rule out a pure mafia hit, but let's get confirmation - although the dupe scenario is of course post facto hard to confirm.

Else, I draw attention to Cole touching on the rather complicated political history of the Syrian presence and his analysis of actors.

I add finally:
The Neoconservatives in the Bush administration, like David Wurmser, have been trying to get up a US war against Syria for some time, and the death of Hariri may offer them an opening.

It is precisely that which I am worried about. Fucking dumb fuck clumsy ass bull in a China shop cowboys may tip things over.

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A bit of ugliness: Iraq, Use of Force

U.S. contractors in Iraq allege abuses
Four men say they witnessed shooting
of unarmed civilians
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6947745/

Good that they spoke up. Custer Battles seems more and more like a bad player, its contracting was dubious, its execution dubious and now this.

Amateur hour in Iraq, or how one can take an opportunity and absolutely, thoroughly piss it away.

Hallmark of the sub par CEO.

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Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

February 15, 2005

On Work

Leaving the fun with Syria aside, the "Visit" has been as awful as I thought it would be. I have left everything in the hands of the Local Director, who communicates terribly and has this wierd habit of making absolutely self contradictory statements, and the New York End Director. As usual they have been communicating terribly, fighting, etc. It's best for me just to watch some of the most amusing (if sometimes as well appaling) mis communication go on.

However, in a convo just now about business development, I made some statements about a line of attack, indicating X was what I thought worked. The NYED questioned, but rather because there was no understanding of what I was driving at. Then LD charges into the convo with a convoluted strange statement about clients and how we never do X, but... always do X.

It was just .... I don't know how to describe. Stupid, I think, because he simply sounded like an idiot, but then it was such a strangely convoluted statement (non-native speaker) that perhaps NYED may have not understood. Or simply dismissed as the irrelevancy it was.

Well, clowns. Clowns. Clowns.

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Syria

So long as I have the occasion, I am going to tell an amusing story about Syria.

Some time back (several years ago), I was working (consulting actually, after I left the Pharma boys) on some trade arrangements that touched on Syria. As it happened the "client" was some hick Southern US forest products firm that had some long-standing business with Syria. Not the most obvious partners, but what the hell do I care?

Now, they came in Mr. Bumble and Mr. Dumble to rap about an issue they had in that the Syrians wanted to depart the usual trade financing arrangements to get an upfront deposit in hard currency. I won't go into the detials, partly because the escape me, partly because they might ID the transaction.

I would say briefly that it was pretty clear that the Syrians had money problems and were trying to fleece BumbleeDumblee, who seemed to be nice enough fellows, but not the sharpest operators. They had built up, nevertheless, a decently mid sized forest products firm, and these whacko clients had been part of that.

Now, I got out the sharp pencil and tried to sketch out for them where I thought their issues were, etc. Options, etc. Regretably the head chappie of the place came in (my place), and he was Syrian. (In retrospect, since 2001 I have been working with some dodgey people, need to break that run) He procedes to contradict everything I just said, and tells them they should just fly to Damascus and sit down and chat, and that they could absolutely trust this arrangement because Syrians are a very open people, and if you're just open and honest with them, they will treat you like their own brother(s).

I have to say the guy was slick. And he spoke English in a down home style that really played these guys well - my Snotty Educated English just was not as convincing. Their heads bobbed and off they went. I recall thinking during this, "These poor bastards, they are going to be fucked. They just have to hope for lubricant."

I think it ended up without lubricant.

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Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Further to Bush, Idiocy, Hariri and Leb Land

While I know some of you think this is a good idea (but then some of you think Egypt is transforming. Mubarek loves peeps like you, cynical fat shrimp eating fuck that he is), I remain stunned at the idiotic clumsiness of the effort.

First, let me say that blundering is not transformative, it's simply blundering.

Second, let me say that just because we (The West or whomever) do not like a regime, that does not mean "transforming it" via blundering about, pressuring it in the most gauche and clumsy manners, and exploiting in a clumsy, ad hoc manner assasinations actually is going to produce a positive result.

Rather, one needs something like a rational cost-benefit analysis of potential outcomes. This isn't fucking day trading with some extra cash where if a trade goes bad, well oopsie. Syria is unambiguously a nasty little regime. It's also not an amigo to the West. Fine. It is also weak and unstable. Okay. It's also a potential ground for hard core Salafism. Not good. Very bad. Above all given the fuck up that is Iraq.

Now, one regional "ally" - our "friend" Israel (yes the quotes are deliberate, Israel is a friend in need of a good smacking, a nice bitch slap to let it know who's in the driver's seat, like Bush I did.) - has a strong interest for its own immediate political calculations in destabilizing Syria. Of course, from their point of view, since they're already riding a tiger, one more can't hurt. It's a dumb ass calc, but Sharon is a fat dice roller.

However, in a more rational world, Syria is simply a second rate, moderately unpopular but not really all that bad actor. It would be great to see Syria reform. However, betting the farm is not in anyone's interest, above all if it take Lebanon and throws it into chaos and violence again. That is a lose-lose.

This aside, in the world of competent and adult politics, one can see the French approach at the moment, which applies pressure without inappropriately suggesting resposibility (and making one look like an utter fool and idiot - a hint for the gung ho, one loses respect, a valuable commodity when one looks like an utter fool and idiot too often). The French (who were close to Hariri and have been interested in pressuring Syria for longer than the US on this point) appropriately called for an investigation with clumsily and inappropriately linking this to withdrawal per se. Further, looking gauche by inappriopriately exploiting a death reduces one's street cred here in the region. The US has precious little street cred to waste.

To further expand on this point, and use the business language I am familiar with, the goal of "transforming" the region is rather like having the goal of transforming a conglomerate for greater growth and return. The realistic management team knows that a conglomerate is not transformed so much as evolved. Further to that, the realistic management team also knows that setting Ra Ra Marketing (in terms of internal communications) goals should not then be mistaken for meaning Ra Ra blind execution. It's easy to achieve current growth by cannabilizing future growth. It's also easy to set up a World Com kind of atmosphere, where cowboy antics lead to "current returns and growth" in such a manner as to explode the firm.

Destabilizing Syria at present is like funding a long term project with short term notes. Sure, it looks cheap and if all goes well, hey, who cares if the tenor doesn't match the real risk? But in this region, one should never, ever count on "all going well" and the mis match is very likely to blow you up.

I may add, that if Bush is the first "CEO" President, he has shown himself to be a piss poor CEO with no sense of real management skill or values - a "bricoleur" as we would say in French. The kind of CEO who runs a firm into the ground.

Leaving this aside, I link to Cole for a moment: http://www.juancole.com/2005/02/hariri-killed-in-huge-car-bombing-in.html

I note Cole raises the Saudi connexion. Very possible, and that's the direct claim via the group on al-Jazeerah. For those that do not know, Hariri made serious dough out of his construction contrating business in KSA; a business line that is utterly corrupt in KSA. Big ticket stuff. I also note that Cole touches on what I hinted at: "It is also possible, since al-Hariri was worth $4 billion and had all sorts of shady deals going on even when he was PM, that this assassination had an economic/ mafia-type background that we are not aware of."

I've had some dealings with the Hariri world (not directly thank whatever), and advance the opinion that a political-religious-Mafia connexion is the most likely explanation. Hariri had some serious enemies - and don't forget the murkiness of the reconstruction. He rebuilt Beirut, and that was good, but transparency in the effort, although perhaps not possible given conditions, left much to be desired to say the least.

Else, I see that the nasty fucker Michel Aoun is doing his usual shit stirring, claiming a Syrian connexion. I presume the Useful Idiots in the States will start echoing this to pound the anti-Syria drum. Morons.

(PS: I obviously got out of babysitting today)

Edit to add: I see also that Salafists are denying the connexion.
Edit II to add: I went googling around to find (i) Cole has a lot of people who don't like this comments, (ii) they tend to rant about "Arabists", (iii) they tend to see Syria behind this and mistake Cole's KSA comment for saying Hariri is Saudi (ex the rare grant of citizenship), (iv) almost exclusively see "politics." They also tend to give the sense of Arabo-Islamophobes. Pity.

Edit to add: via Pantom, comments, USG pulls Ambassador.
U.S. recalls envoy from Syria
'Deep concerns' over ex-prime minister's killing in Lebanon
Tuesday, February 15, 2005 Posted: 1931 GMT (0331 HKT)
http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/02/15/beirut.explosion/index.html

Madre de puta.

So, we're all about funding our policy with a short term revolver. Fuck the next quarter, throw some meat to the sucker analysts.

Motherfuckers.

I think they want to blow everything up, the crazy morons.

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Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

February 14, 2005

Unhelpful Sabre Rattling: Lebland, Syria, US

In re the article below, I find it most unhelpful that White House chose to use the Hariri assasination for a moment of sabre rattling, which is most unhelpful reaction when nothing is known about the event. Events like this in re Lebanon have a real possibility of running away with themselves, it behooves the US not to make clumsy associations at this stage, nor simply sabre rattle about Lebanon at a delicate momment.

Bloody lunatics.

U.S. Warns of U.N. Penalties After Lebanon Killing
Politics - Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House said on Monday it would consult with U.N. Security Council members about taking punitive measures against those responsible for the killing of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, and to push for an end to Syrian occupation.

White House spokesman Scott McClellan stopped short of linking Syria with the car bomb that killed Hariri and at least a dozen other people in Beirut. He said Washington did not know who was responsible.

But in a thinly veiled warning to Damascus, McClellan said: "The United States will consult with other governments in the region and on the Security Council today about measures that can be taken to punish those responsible for this terrorist attack, to end the use of violence and intimidation against the Lebanese people and to restore Lebanon's independence, sovereignty and democracy by freeing it from foreign occupation."

It was not immediately clear what punitive measures the United States would propose at the United Nations (news - web sites).

"We do not know who was responsible for the attack at this point. It's premature to know that," McClellan said.

"We continue to be concerned about the foreign occupation in Lebanon. We've expressed those concerns," he added.

The Bush administration has been warning Syria for months that it may face new sanctions for allegedly supporting Palestinian militants and allowing money and arms to flow to insurgents in Iraq (news - web sites).

Last week the State Department called in Syria's ambassador, a sign a decision may be near.

McClellan condemned "this brutal attack" on Hariri, whom, he said, "worked tirelessly to rebuild a free, independent and prosperous Lebanon following its civil war and foreign occupation."

"This murder today is a terrible reminder that the Lebanese people must be able to pursue their aspirations and determine their own political future free from violence and intimidation and free from Syrian occupation," McClellan said.

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Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Rafiq Hariri killed-Car Bombing Beirut. [edit for better code, added]

Motherfucker. The phrase "Not good, not good at all" comes to mind. The other is. Lebanese bonds. Don't be long.

Edit to add:
Depending on who did this, capacity for bad things to result is very large.

Beirut car bomb kills former Lebanon premier
By Reuters February 14 2005 12:30

A massive car bomb killed Lebanon’s former prime minister, Rafik al-Hariri, on Beirut’s waterfront on Monday, witnesses and security sources said. At least eight others, some of them his bodyguards, also died.

Hariri’s motorcade was blown up as it passed along an exclusive section of the city’s waterfront Corniche.

The explosion outside the St George Hotel gouged a deep crater out of the road, ripped facades from luxury buildings and left half a dozen cars ablaze on streets carpeted with rubble and broken glass.

Hariri, a billionaire businessman, resigned from government last October but remained politically influential. He recently joined calls by the opposition for Syrian troops to quit Lebanon in the run-up to a general election in May.

”Syria regards this as an act of terrorism, a crime that seeks to destabilise” Lebanon, Syrian Information Minister Mahdi Dakhl-Allah told Reuters by telephone.

Rescue workers clawed at piles of debris across the street from the hotel. Witnesses said at least five people had been buried there by the explosion.

It appeared to be the biggest bomb in the city since the Lebanese civil war ended in 1990. The blast could be heard even outside Beirut’s city limits and shattered windows in buildings hundreds of metres away.

Scores of firefighters doused the burning vehicles and bloodied survivors were taken away by ambulance. One fire officer said the total of dead and injured was at least 50.

Current Prime Minister Omar Karami visited the scene, surrounded by security men. Columns of dark acrid smoke rose from the site on a previously clear and unseasonably hot day.

The St George, fashionable with film stars in the 1960s, had been closed for renovation.

BLOODY HISTORY OF CAR BOMBS

Beirut was regularly rocked by car bombs throughout the civil war, when fighting among ethnic, religious and political factions all but tore Lebanon apart.

Neighbouring Syria became the ever more dominant player during the conflict, and its forces took much of the credit for bringing the war to a close.

But Lebanese voices calling for Damascus to pull out its 14,000 troops have grown louder, backed by a U.N. resolution calling for their withdrawal.

Mohammad Jihad Ahmed Jibril, 41, a military leader and son of Ahmed Jibril of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine General-Command (PFLP-GC), was torn to shreds by a bomb that ripped through his car in Beirut in May 2002.

Earlier that year, a bomb killed Elie Hobeika, a key figure in a pro-Israeli Lebanese militia involved in a massacre of Palestinian refugees in 1982.

Hariri, 60, had held office for most of the past 12 years before quitting in October 2004 amid a bitter rift with President Emile Lahoud.

Born to a modest family from the southern port city of Sidon on Nov 1, 1944, the Sunni Muslim Hariri spent some 20 years in Saudi Arabia, where construction deals made him a fortune that Forbes estimated at $3.8 billion on its 2003 World’s Richest People list.

Businessmen praised him for cutting through a paralysed Lebanese state bureaucracy and rebuilding war-shattered Beirut. But hopes that economic renaissance would flower with a Middle East peace process wilted with it instead.

Palestinian authority official Jibril Rajoub said the killing of Hariri “serves the enemies of both the Palestinian people and the Lebanese people. We strongly condemn this act which threatens the stability in the region.”

Vice Premier Shimon Peres of Israel, which occupied southern Lebanon for two decades, said: “I have no idea who did this. He lived in a dangerous country and they (the Lebanese government) should have taken control over that country. Instead of this they surrendered to all kinds of terrorists.”

(Additional reporting by Lucy Fielder and Roula Najem) REUTERS

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:25 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Elections, Stupid statements.

Much confused chatter about the election results in Iraq. In my opinion, too soon to chatter. Confusing system with confusing slates, and a lot of horse trading coming up.

However this item from the NYT got under my skin:
The selection of a Kurdish president would most likely inflame the Sunnis in Iraq as well as nearly all other governments in the Arab world, which are dominated by Sunnis.

The utter confusion that seems to exist in the Western press (and the US press strikes me as particularly bad here) on Iraqi ethnicities irritates me.

The Kurds ARE LARGELY SUNNI. They simply are not ARAB.

The issue is not Sunni versus Kurd, its Arab versus Kurd.

Morons.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:23 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

February 13, 2005

Iraq elections

A quick note. Followed the announcement of results on the Arab Sats - very interesting. See what comes out of the Shia List. Also Giles Keppel was on al-Jazeerah. I have to say, Giles is impressive; entire commentary in quite good MSA. Good banter with the chica, without knowing his studies I would lay money on Syria and Egypt by his accent, although has some Maghrebine influences in his spoken negation.

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Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

February 11, 2005

Silence & Dubai

Sorry comrades, a Big Cheese is coming into town and I have to handle. Happens to be one of the one....actually I despise them all. This one in particular is the author of comment, in response to a disastrous project that nearly lost us our client, "But have you explained our model is different?"

Different than what, and why the client should give a flying fuck as to "our model" when the project was a failure escaped and still escapes me.

Going to be a fun week of trying to limit damage as this idiot wants to meet with all the important peeps, and we definately don't want that.

Extraordinary, one has to keep one's senior people under wraps to retain clients. Super.

In any case, I will be likely rather radio silent.

However, I do note that Dubi is for the moment confirmed for the first week. Still need to do my hotel, however.

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Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

February 10, 2005

Koranic duels ease terror

Found via wandering about, specifically reading here: http://www.sebastianholsclaw.com/

World > Middle East
from the February 04, 2005 edition
Koranic duels ease terror
By James Brandon | Contributor to The Christian Science Monitor
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0204/p01s04-wome.html

Interesting.

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Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Cole on Iraq, post election

Juan Cole has a few items I wanted to echo.

First, this paragraph making the explicit reference to the Phalangistes of Lebanon. It's this sort of connexion that I think of when I made the argument that Iraq has no way of avoiding a Lebanon type situation. I am not as sure of that judgement, but I would still put good money on it.
A highly placed US official in Baghdad told the Chicago Tribune's Liz Sly that he thought the guerrilla war would go on for many years. As regular readers know, I concur. The old Sunni Arab power elite, mainly Baathists or the officer class, has not reconciled itself to the political ascendancy of the Shiites and Kurds. They still think they can destabilize the country and take back over. I would compare them to the Phalangists, the fascist Maronite Christians in Lebanon, who fought tooth and nail 1975-1989 against recognizing that Christians were no longer a dominant majority in Lebanon. Eventually they had to accept a 50/50 split of seats in parliament (which is generous to the Christians, given that Muslims are now a clear majority). That the Sunni Arab elite might be quicker studies than the Phalangists is possible but a little unlikely.

Likewise, the guerrillas in Iraq have many advantages. They were the managerial class and the officer class, so they have a great deal of organizational know-how. They clearly still have some of the loot the Baathists stole from the Iraqi people, and they know where the missing 250,000 tons of munitions are. If either ran out, there are plenty of Gulf millionnaires who would surreptitiously support a Sunni insurgency against American domination in Iraq. Money is fungible and I don't think their support could be effectively interfered with (do you know how many nouveau riche millionnaires there are in the Gulf?)

Well, the number of millionaires is not limitless, but there are plenty of ways to move money in the Gulf. Even under the USG's own nose. I have seen it done.

I do like Cole's quasi humourous take on the Sunni Arab elite not likely to be quicker studies than the Phalange. But then, the Maronites managed to hang on to more power in Lebanon than their demographics really support. Think about that lesson.

Hard men with guns, and a lot of motivation.

Finally his comment re the Kurds and the Shia was interesting re the issue of personal law, etc. However, can such a deal be done?

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Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Foreign Aid

Reading The Washington Monthly "Political Animal" I noted this item:
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2005_02/005623.php

A few thoughts.

First, it is appaling that Americans are so... well bloody dim when it comes to knowing where their money is actually being spent. But that is not news.

Second, I am less excercised by the level of aide than by its conception. Having direct familiarity with European aide programs, I have to say that many are clearly bribes to the country in question rather than genuine aide. The EU joint facilities in particular seem to be doted with simultaneously slow and idiotic bureaucratic rubbish rules and little to know oversight on spending. Honeypots. So, my instinct is that the good Euro numbers are somewhat inflated.

Regardless, I do believe well conceived aide can help, and even where the revolutionary benefits often promised never show up, one may have avoided a downside. The US could likely profitably move money from defence projects conceived during the Cold War to various emerging markets economic reform initiatives, in my opinion. However, how to structure is perhaps another issue. This Millenium Challenge Corporation seems interesting but I wonder if it will work. (And although 2.5 billion sounds like a lot, it's really chickenfeed).

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February 09, 2005

Arab Media Market, The Error of Privatization, Articles

To continue the subject of the Arab Media market and my argument that al-Jazeerah privatization (as a politically motivated fire sale) is wrong and nothing to be happy about, I draw your attention to the following articles.

The main take away from all of them is:
(a) the image of al-Jazeerah as "jihadi" is absurd and ridiculous.
(b) the liklihood that al-Jazeerah will be snapped up by Saudi interests who will subsequently silence its criticisms of KSA is high.
(c) silencing al-Jazeerah on KSA is going US and Western interests a disservice.
(d) the current US high dungeon over al-Jazeerah is childishly short sighted, wrong headed and contrary to real interests.

The articles:

48% of households in Cairo use the Internet and 46% have Satellite TV
MENAFN Press - 26/01/2005
https://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?storyid=77965

Lebanese Reaction to the U.S. Satellite Station
Is Al-Hurra Doomed?

Paul Cochrane
Worldpress.org contributing editor
June 11, 2004
http://www.worldpress.org/Mideast/1872.cfm

Report from Amman ...
Election Propaganda
Gordon Robison
3 January 2005
http://www.publicdiplomacy.org/39.htm

The War Inside the Arab Newsroom by S M Shapiro

January 2, 2005 NYTimes
The War Inside the Arab Newsroom
By SAMANTHA M. SHAPIRO
http://ics.leeds.ac.uk/papers/vp01.cfm?outfit=pmt&requesttimeout=500&folder=2053&paper=2069
OR
http://faculty.washington.edu/pnhoward/teaching/mms/arabnewsroom.pdf

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Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

FT very rich this week.

FT has been quite rich in things that concern me or simply interest. First, the Arafat coverage. Pantom mentioned this, but I should reflect on their article, I tangentially know or know of the players. Very loose, but an opp to reflect on what I used to hear.

Second Wolfe has an interesting article on aid flows, must reflect on that.

Third, US has just put out a tender for some major development programs and potential bidders are crawling all over the place. Having seen the RFP now - some of it is financial sector - I need to make some comments on the wrong headedness of it all. The short version: "The US continues to think MENA c. 2005 = E. Europe c. 1990."

Well, I suppose when you have only a hammer....

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February 08, 2005

Optimism in MENA

We're on a run of good luck at present, and I am fairly happy with that. May reduce my odds of getting whacked before I become rich, but a word of warning from someone with MENA experience.

Murphy's Law was invented for this region.

Still, I am happy that we have a chance to avoid civil war.

In personal matters, a British firm got in touch with me re some potential Iraq action. It may be a sign that greedy creatures besides meself are thinking of taking another look at Iraq in the next few months. Too early to make a call, this can still go to hell (and I would lay better odds on things going wrong than right), but at least there is a potential exit.

Finally, had a lunch with a French private equity guy with a military background. Apparently he was in Beiruit back in the day. Opined the American excessive "force protection" habits he saw there are unchanged and with the same result - alienation from the populace and vicious cycle of hit, counter-hits (that go awry and breed more resentment).

Nothing new there, interesting to hear this fellow cite similar habits though in a similar situ.

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Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Arab Bank Exits US

Arab Bank to shut down New York branch

AMMAN (JT) — The Arab Bank on Monday decided to “gradually” close its New York branch, saying that the current operation environment in the US is not in line with the financial institution's strategy.
The Jordan News Agency, Petra, quoted an Arab Bank statement as saying that the vision and strategy of the group are now focusing on operations in the region and Europe. Petra said the move would not have any significant effect on the Amman-based Arab Bank's local and international operations.

US press reports said last week that US bank regulators were scrutinizing the Arab Bank for possible links to Palestinian groups.

The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that prosecutors and private entities that have filed civil suits against the bank suspect it has been laundering money for Palestinian “terrorists.”

The reports said that the Arab Bank was negotiating with US authorities to settle claims in tens of millions filed on allegations of damage caused by Palestinian attacks on targets in Israel.

But the government and the Arab Bank refuted such allegations, stressing that the financial institution, as certified by the authorities in the United States, operates in accordance with international standards and measures.

Tuesday, February 8, 2005

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February 07, 2005

And what do moderate muslims do?

Local intel has busted up, according to a brief report, a fraction of the Attakfire-wa-hijra group. Nasty characters. Report indicated they were turned in by the neighborhood because they were hostile and bullying, and seemed violent. That would pretty much describe AwH. Allah yaounikoum, as they say, on the neighborhood. The report comes from a good source, I give it credence.

Little stuff like this happens. You guys don't hear about it, but it happens more than you think.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:31 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Barbers, but at least not the cheesemakers

From the AP, a sad tale of Salafi extremist nutjobbery.

Islamic Radicals Hunt Barbers in Baghdad

Mon Feb 7, 2:05 AM ET

Middle East - AP

By OMAR SINAN, Associated Press Writer

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Umm Ali says militants killed her son last month for the most unlikely of reasons: He trims men's beards.

AFP
Slideshow: Iraq

In Baghdad's Dora neighborhood, residents say Sunni Muslim extremists have made barbers the new hunted, accusing them of violating a strict reading of Islamic teachings that say men should keep their beards long.

Some extremists also consider Western-style haircuts an offensive symbol of the hated, secularized culture of Europe and the United States.

To them, sporting a clipped beard or a modern haircut is an infraction worthy of death.

Black banners mourning the dead were strung up in the neighborhood as the unwitting violators fell one after another to the militants' harsh brand of justice. In one month alone, five barbers were shot dead, residents said.

"He was a haircutter. He only cuts hair," Umm Ali said of her son, Sadiq Abdul Hussein. "He was handsome," she said, gazing at a photo of him.

Abdul Hussein was killed after he shrugged off a threat to stop shaving men's beards or lose his life.

A black mourning banner said only that he died due to a "regrettable incident."

Dora's streets are a battleground for rebels fighting U.S. and Iraqi forces. Drive-by shootings targeting government officials are frequent. It's a symbol of the chaos that has followed Saddam Hussein (news - web sites)'s ouster nearly two years ago.

Masked, gun-totting militants freely roam its streets, issuing orders and threats and meting out punishment to those who challenge them.

Among the many offenses that run afoul of Dora's new extremist gangs are men with long hair, goatees and even sideburns.

Wesam Noori, a 19-year-old art student, is careful to keep his long hair tucked under a hat.

"We are trying to hide our hair under baseball caps or ski hats," he said.

Iraqi Christians have also been targeted here by insurgents who consider them close to American and other foreign occupiers because they share the same religion. Four churches have been attacked in Dora in deadly car bombings.

Islamic militants have also publicly flogged and killed women's hairdressers in several places throughout Iraq (news - web sites).

On Jan. 27, Sadiq Abdul Hussein was cutting a customer's hair when a tall man with a scarf wrapped around his face walked through the door. He opened fire with an assault rifle, killing Abdul Hussein and wounding his customer, Imad Hammad, a 26-year-old engineer.

"I saw the flash from the gun's muzzle and after that I passed out," said Imad, who was shot in the belly.

Imad's father, Hamad al-Dulaimi blamed foreigners for the killings and said they sought to create turmoil here.

"Those Arab extremists are butchering our sons simply to create a disturbance," he said. "We will not be stopped by this sedition."

As if to illustrate his promise that life here couldn't be stopped by violence, a tranquil street scene unfolded on a recent afternoon. Barefoot children kicked around a dented Pepsi can. Mothers sat on front stoops, chatting and gesturing with hands decorated with traditional green tattoos.

But Ali Hussein, a 25-year-old barber who owns a salon in Dora, says the threat is real enough to threaten his livelihood.

Like other barbers, he's gotten the flyers from militants bearing their instructions for how to cut hair and promising death for those who violate the rules.

"They are even forbidding us to hang posters showing the most recent haircuts," Hussein said.

He now cuts customers' hair in secret inside his house.

"I don't want to be killed, but I don't want to be broke either," he said.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

On al Jazeerah

From comments I refer you to this link http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2005/02/sharansky.html
and generally the site. It has some nice material on al Jazeerah, antidote to the ignorant posturing about the chanenl that occurs among US politicians.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:10 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

February 04, 2005

Returns and the oddities of long term rates

Very interesting item from FT.

Samuel Brittan: Why long-term bond yields are low
By Samuel Brittan
Published: February 3 2005 21:42 | Last updated: February 3 2005 21:42
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/c0333b78-7625-11d9-8833-00000e2511c8.html

The subject matter is long tern rates, the issue behind that evoked towards the end is the question of attractive opportunities. Quoted in part.

The behaviour of bond prices is puzzling the financial markets. The US Federal Reserve has for some time been gradually raising the Federal Funds rate from the 1 per cent of a year ago towards what it regards as a more normal level, reaching 2.5 per cent this week. Yet, paradoxically, long term bond yields have continued to fall. In the US, they reached a high of 4.7 per cent last summer and have since dropped by about half a percentage point. There is little doubt that interest rates - international as well as US ones - are low for what is regarded as a recovery phase of the business cycle. Having at last abandoned their more unrealistic expectations about equities, some investors are unhappy that bonds do not offer a promising alternative.

Well, I am not sure that investors really have abandoned unrealistic expectations about equity returns, look at the wierdly distorted US debate about its Social Security system and the expectations implied in the move to change to private accounts.

Part of this grumbling merely reflects "money illusion" - the failure to take inflation into account. The high returns previously experienced in nominal terms from holding bonds were partly compensation for the fear that dollars and pounds would shrink in real value. But OECD real interest rates, obtained by subtracting an inflation index from the nominal yield, also show a pronounced long term downward trend - from about 6 per cent in the mid-1980s to 2 per cent recently. The message is confirmed by the yield on UK index-linked gilt-edged, which is now in the 1�-2 per cent range. The yield on the more recently introduced US TIPs (Treasury inflation-protected securities) is now also down towards the 1� per cent level. These low returns are all the more impressive in the light of the common belief that the dollar and sterling are both overvalued and that bond yields must contain a risk premium to allow for this.

The first point is important - money illusion is hard to shake you know, even when one knows better - but inflation adjusted returns of 1.5 percent on US dollar assets strikes me as near madness (for the buyer, if the buyer is foriegn, maybe not if domestic).

After briefly evoking technical issues such as the carry trade, we move on to more novel meat:
Yet there may be a more elementary explanation for low long-term real interest rates. Just as the price of bananas balances the supply and demand for this fruit, so the rate of interest balances the supply of savings against the demand for funds to invest. Monetary policy is important mainly at the short end and for its effect on inflation. But the important influence at the longer end is the balance of world savings and investment.

Thus, I come to the simple hypothesis that falling real interest rates reflect a growing shortage of attractive investment projects to absorb savings. The world is indeed supposed to be short of capital and we are told that we do not save enough. But what matters in this context is not the developing world projects that might be desirable but the number of projects world-wide that promise a commercial risk-adjusted return.

Emphasis added.

I am with our FT man.

Of course part of this issue is (i) perception of ability to achieve a return in an emerging market - and actually obtain the achieved return; (ii) creating the necessary vehicles to actually redirect savings profitably.

I personally believe there is a modest market failure in the capital markets at present, where opportunities for return at reasonable levels of risk are not being fully exploited in the upper end of emerging markets (not by income I mean, but by governance) due to lack of expertise and discrimination in re emerging market risk (in re direct investments). Modest.

On the other hand this also underlines that changes to create more attractive investment can capitalize on a lot of capital sloshing about looking for return. It does need, however, the proper vectors.

The reason why so much of the world's savings has gone to the US is surely just because of the dearth of such investment outlets elsewhere. In the 1930s, Lord Keynes feared that the rate of interest could not fall low enough to balance savings and investment at a reasonable level of employment. But up to now, world capital markets have worked well and interest rates have fallen enough to balance savings and investment without generating a depression.<