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February 23, 2005

Asian CBs diversifying

Financial Times yesterday:

Markets fall as Asian banks move away from dollar
By Song Jung-a in Seoul and Chris Giles and Steve Johnson in London
Published: February 22 2005 20:15 | Last updated: February 22 2005 20:15

Financial markets reversed on Tuesday amid concerns that Asian central banks were diversifying out of US dollar assetsand that demand for oil would remain persistently strong.

The dollar fell sharply in foreign exchange markets, crude oil prices jumped back above $50 a barrel and stock prices declined worldwide, bringing an unwelcome shock to investors.

The dollar suffered its biggest fall since October as South Korea said it would diversify the currencies in which it holds its $200bn of foreign exchange reserves, up to 90 per cent of which may be in dollar-denominated assets.

The move reignited fears that Asian central banks may be losing their appetite for the dollar at a time when the US needs to attract $2bn of foreign capital a day to cover its current account deficit.

The dollar lost much of the ground it had gained in 2005, falling 1.3 per cent against both the euro and yen to $1.323 and Y104.10 respectively, as well as sliding 1.8 per cent to a seven-year low of Won1,005 against the South Korean currency.

........

Gold shares rose, as April gold futures surged by $7.40 to close at $435.80 an ounce in New York.

The dollar movements were triggered by a parliamentary report from the Bank of Korea that said it would increase investments in high-yielding non-government debt, such as papers issued by financial institutions and asset-backed securities, and diversify its holdings into a variety of currencies.

"We have already been reducing the portion of dollar-denominated assets while increasing that of non-dollar assets. And we will continue to do so gradually," said a BoK official. "It's a global trend that central banks diversify into non-government papers as their reserves increase." The move follows similar announcements from Thailand, Taiwan and Indonesia. It reflects Asian governments' increasing concern that a falling dollar could reduce their reserves unless they diversify their currency holdings.

........

Emphasis added.

Well, looks like we're off the new year bounce. I is very happy I moved a good portion of me dollars at the right time. Still to USD exposed, but the whiplash is not so bad.

However, the follow on:

Dollar stabilises as Korea clarifies plans
By Steve Johnson in London
Published: February 23 2005 11:49 | Last updated: February 23 2005 11:49

The US dollar clawed back a fraction of Tuesday’s sharp losses in European trade on Wednesday as South Korea clarified its plans to diversify its foreign exchange reserves and Japan said it had no plans to sell dollars.

The Bank of Korea had precipitated Tuesday’s dollar sell-off when it said it planned to diversify its $200bn of reserves, between 70 and 90 per cent of which are estimated to be in dollar-denominated assets.

However the BoK said in a statement on Wednesday that it was looking to invest more in non-government bonds and that it would not sell “current” dollar holdings for other currencies.

This, of course still left room for Seoul to re-direct new reserves away from the dollar. “This would seem to us to indicate that the BoK was specifically talking about diversifying any additional reserves that it might accrue through the coming fiscal year rather than the reserves it has already built up,” said Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York.

Japan, which has the world’s largest forex reserves, also clarified its intentions. Masatsugu Asakawa, director of the foreign exchange market division at the ministry of finance, told Reuters that “we have no plans to change the composition of currency holdings in the foreign reserves and we are not thinking about expanding our euro holdings”. ..... .......

Also, via my only "friend" (ha.): A resume of Beeb coverage http://www.livejournal.com/community/usdollar/15891.htm


* South Korea, which has about $200bn in foreign reserves, said it plans instead to boost holdings of currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollar.
* Compiled by Central Banking Publications and sponsored by the UK's Royal Bank of Scotland, the survey found 39 nations out of 65 questioned were increasing their euro holdings, with 29 cutting back on the US dollar.
* Concerns over the dollar's outlook, and rising oil prices pushed down US shares on Tuesday. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 1.6%, while the Nasdaq lost 1.3%.
* Analysts, however, pointed to the dollar's inability recently to extend that rally despite positive economic and corporate data, and highlighted the fact that many of the US's economic problems had not disappeared.

The comment at starti s re the seasonality of the move. However, depending on the simple average of the past five years Euro-Dollar percent changes seems off, have to reflect for second when I have time.

Posted by The Lounsbury at February 23, 2005 01:45 PM
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

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