RSS« On Credit Cards and Keyboards | A Really Bad Idea. »
February 24, 2005
Beware of Druuze Bearing Gifts
A thought if I may.
From here:
Druze Warlord Turns NeoCon
http://zenpundit.blogspot.com/2005/02/druze-warlord-turns-neocon-walid.html
Let me expand. I saw David Ignatius' column in The Washington Post and though I like Ignatius, I was underwhelmed. Arab Zaims speaking nice English. Like Allaouie.
I continue to be amused I may add by the naive loinization of Hariri. I guess it's convenient, but really kids... It's this sort of stuff that gets one fucked over.
Expanding on the thought, I see a whole bunch of American Conservos are getting all happy (a la Friedman) about a "Baghdad Spring. I suppose the easy Cold War analogies are attractive. Easy. Understandable. False.
Lebanon is not caught in an ideological conflict (excluding the Maronite Fascists with their silly "we're not Arabs, we're Phoenicians" issues), we're looking at sectarian conflict. This is as much Leb-Leb as not, and Syria is not the most dangerous point here (I add you should not be suckered either by statement they are pulling out. It's a two step, I'll bet my salary on it. Buying time, typical Shami Shyster game), the danger is a Shia-Other Leb conflict.
The Economist has a useful article to pull you all back to the reality of Leb politics (as opposed to the silly ideological readings)
Lebanon
Death of a statesman
Feb 17th 2005 | BEIRUT
From The Economist print edition
http://economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3672661
Okay, let's pass over the statesman appelation for the moment.
What I wished to highlight are the following:
He made enemies along the way. Many accused him of allowing Syria, whose troops and spies underpinned the peace, to tighten its hold over Lebanon. But Mr Hariri's wealth and powerful friends, such as France's Jacques Chirac, allowed him a certain independence from Syria.
How winds change.
Popular anger against Syria and its stooges has reinvigorated Lebanon's opposition. An emerging alliance of former foes from across the sectarian spectrum has taken the tragedy as an opportunity to push its agenda. Some, such as the Druze chieftain, Walid Jumblatt, now openly demand that Syria end its 27-year presence. Others have called for the resignation of Lebanon's own government. The normally quiescent Maronite church, Lebanon's largest, explicitly charged what it called Lebanon's “dictatorial regime” with responsibility for Mr Hariri's murder.
Well, the word quiescent and "Maronite Church" do not normally go together in my opinion.
Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Shia party-cum-militia Hizbullah (a key Syrian ally), respectfully describes the slain prime minister as having been the only solid bridge between the opposition and Syria.
and most importantly:
What unites Syria's allies is not simply that they have profited from Syria's presence. They also share historical resentment at the traditional sway held by the very groups coalescing against them, which now include Mr Hariri's Sunnis in addition to Druze and Maronites. Perhaps more importantly, they also fear that Lebanon's opposition represents a spearhead for American and Israeli influence. This, of course, is a view shared by Syria's sole regional ally, Iran, which offered Syria its unflinching support this week.
Read here: the always excluded, ever down trodden Shia see themselves benefiting from the Alaouite led Syrian presence, while if they leave, the Druuze and the Maronis and the Sunnis get back to their old bad habits.
As I noted elsewhere, Hizbullah is Lebanese and has a lot of Baraka left over from it's bloodying the Israelis nose. You ain't seen nothing until you've seen an Orthodox Xian Leb woman argue violently with a Maronite about how "good" Hizbullah is.
Where this goes is anyone's guess, but misreading the events in a Cold War framework is a deep error.
Posted by The Lounsbury at February 24, 2005 04:39 PM
Filed Under:
Jan-July 2005
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.aqoul.com/movabletype/mt-tb.cgi/618
