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February 16, 2005
Hariri and Idiotic Editorials
From The Washington Post
Murder in Beirut
Wednesday, February 16, 2005; Page A18
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27661-2005Feb15.html
The despicable murder of Mr. Hariri benefits no one outside the rogue regime in Damascus -- and the world should respond accordingly.
Benefits no one but Damascus? What are they blithering about? There are all kinds of people this can benefit, all kinds. Of course if one has blinders on and doesn't know the region....
The worst part is this piece of idiocy:
If the assassination of Mr. Hariri -- the most plausible leader of a truly independent Lebanon -- looks like the panicked act of a cornered tyrant, the shoe snugly fits Mr. Assad.
Panicked Syria?
As for Hariri, most plausible? I have nothing against the guy, but hey WP - might want to reflect on Harriri's financial murkiness.
No, I am sorry, this is the worst part:
The Bush administration has rightly responded assertively to this act of terrorism. Yesterday the State Department announced the withdrawal of the U.S. ambassador from Syria; at the United Nations, the United States and France jointly sponsored a Security Council statement asking Secretary General Kofi Annan to investigate the bombing. Such a probe, like those of many previous Lebanese political killings, may lead nowhere, so the Bush administration should meanwhile work with France to raise the pressure on Syria to comply with Resolution 1559.
No, the French responded assertively in a well-balanced measure that did not put themselves too far out front of the facts. Of course, for good reason, while Syria or rather a Syrian faction remains a plausible candidate, the French know that Leb politics and MENA politics (and the mafia dirt connexions of Hariri) make it unwise to get too far out in front.
America - the bumbling fool. WP, the bumbling enabler.
Another comment: I am afraid I just do not support the conclusion "sophisticated bomb" = gov intel agency. People are leaping to conclusions. I think we all know what happened last time such conclusion leaping occured. Like the "rods." No, a short motor boat ride away from Beirut gets one to a place where people skilled in bombing can be hired.
Further thought:
Now, as to who did the Hariri bombing, nobody knows. My general POV is that it is very unhelpful for the US and others of official character to jump to conclusions. The French response, stern, measured but diplomatic (insisting on international inquiry, etc.) was the proper one. The US cowboy reaction, clumsy, bumbling and maladroit, was not.
Syrian intel (I very much doubt an approved op) might be behind this. But then Hariri had a lot of enemies - some of which would well profit from the Syrians getting blamed for this. It ain't a clean world, and Hariri was not a clean boy. There are lots of people out there with reason to want to blow him to fuck and back.
However, thinking this was a US OP is equally ridiculous. Nothing in it suggests US, and frankly I think the US lacks the assets to pull something like that off without the whole world knowing about it. Some comments alluded to DoD. They give DoD far too much credit to think. If there is a US angle, it is clumsily glomming on to a perceived opportunity, not making the opportunity.
So, here are the lessons for the knee jerkers (Left and Right):
(a) Not all bombs in the Middle East are genuinely political.
(b) Insofar as corruption and business involve government, (and boy do they here), Politics and Mafia can go hand in hand.
(c) This is the World Center of Scheming. The obvious is not necessarily the correct choice. See Sadaam and the NBC weapons dance.
(d) It's best to take a measured approach, facts may come out that make you look like a fucking moron if you charge ahead (See Iraq, NBC weapons, US claims; similarly, US, Lebanon, Syria, undiplomatic statements, knee jerking over-reaction on too swift a time table).
Lesson in sum: Patience and skill are needed now, the region is already a tinderbox now, I don't need this idiotic American administration making my life more dangerous, let alone harder to do business, the clumsy morons.
Added Thought:
A problem here is this has the potential to seriously escalate and could tip Lebanon back into civil war, for example. A destabilized Lebanon falling slowly back into civil war is a BAD THING, rather like squeezing lighter fluid into a open flame. Maybe it doesn't blow back, but the potential is there. The issue here is the idjits who run US MENA policy are not looking at the spectrum of risk, they're looking at their fuck up in Iraq and trying to find scapegoats (Syria, Bad Syria). Especially nice weak incompetent scapegoats (Syria, very good choice; Syrian admin can't tie its shoe laces).
Or to go back to my business analogy, the bumblers have seen a new product they want to launch, and they're just 100 percent sure it will fly, although none of the marketing data is in.
Finally a link to Cole's discussion:
http://www.juancole.com/2005/02/hariri-murder-provokes-political-split.html
A few comments on some statements:
In a sense, it does not any longer matter who precisely was behind the blast. The political opposition in Lebanon has made up its mind whom to blame. It is not that they are necessarily wrong. On any list of suspects in the killing of Hariri, the Syrians would have to rank high. They had means, motive and opportunity-- which does not, however, establish that they murdered Hariri.
Absolutely agree.
The other angle, of al-Qaeda-like groups hitting out at Saudi-related targets (Hariri had Saudi citizenship), cannot in my view be dismissed. (If, as is now being reported, the blast was in part the work of a suicide bomber, that would rule out a mafia-type business dispute). Given the 250,000 tons of missing munitions in Iraq, there are lots of very high-powered explosives on the market in the Middle East.
Here, not so agreed. I don't view the mafia-type business dispute versus politics versus religion as either/or/or. Above all given some of the folks one has to deal with in the construction industry. A suicide bomber (a real one rather than a dupe, for example) does rule out a pure mafia hit, but let's get confirmation - although the dupe scenario is of course post facto hard to confirm.
Else, I draw attention to Cole touching on the rather complicated political history of the Syrian presence and his analysis of actors.
I add finally:
The Neoconservatives in the Bush administration, like David Wurmser, have been trying to get up a US war against Syria for some time, and the death of Hariri may offer them an opening.
It is precisely that which I am worried about. Fucking dumb fuck clumsy ass bull in a China shop cowboys may tip things over.
Posted by The Lounsbury at February 16, 2005 01:38 PM
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Jan-July 2005
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