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February 02, 2005
On Getting Things Right in the Middle East
I am going to depart from my usual rule of not engaging in inter-blog commentary to use an amigo of Zenpundit and perhaps a new reader as a foil in re a comment I had, and the subsequent exchange. I shall even depart from my usual take no prisoners style and apologize in advance for the harshness. However, this is illustrative of something that drives me nuts, and I think important - important because I sympathize with the goals, but I want to see success. Also, for those commenting, please do refrain..... Now, in regards to the specific subject, it is the announced Qatari intention to sell off al-Jazeerah. (See here); however the real subject is a proper understanding of where the MENA markets really are and what are the real problems one is looking at. As I have noted before, US strategy, in my opinion, badly mispecifies a lot of issues in the region, especially relative to broadcast media, although also in some contexts, in my limited knowledge of US moves here, in broader economic reform strategy. Not ultimate goals, which I agree with, but in understanding current issues and challenges. To make a one phrase summary: Present US engagement fools itself into thinking MENA is Eastern Europe c. 1990 or even worse 1985. It isn't.
Now, thanks to Zenpundit, this comment provoked this note: Free Arab Media
Qatar Advances Plans To Privatize Al-Jazeera: U.S. Has Criticized Arab TV Network," by Shankar Vedantam, Washington Post, 31 January 2005 (from Collounsbury).
Great news out of the Gulf.
The government of Qatar is pushing forward with plans to privatize al-Jazeera, the popular and controversial Arab television network that has often drawn the ire of U.S. administration officials, a network spokesman said.
al Jazeera's prominance, and the forthcoming privitization, are both fallout from theIraqi Big Bang Strategy
Details of the plan are yet to be worked out and await a feasibility report that should be completed in coming months, said Jihad Ballout, a spokesman in the Qatari capital of Doha. Al-Jazeera is highly popular in the Arab world but has repeatedly drawn criticism from the Bush administration about its coverage of the war in Iraq and other hot-button issues in the Middle East.
Pressure from U.S. officials has caused the government of Qatar, which bankrolls al Jazeera, to accelerate the spinoff, according to a report yesterday in the New York Times, which quoted an unnamed senior Qatari official.
This news is wonderful. While al Jazeera is anti-American, it also is the first news channel in the Arab world that freely criticizes everybody. We need to create real political debates in the Greater Middle East, and outlets like al Jazeera are part of this. It is problematic, however, that al Jazeera does not face market pressures and is owned by an ally. Allowing private investors, even if they are Saudi petrocrats, to run a free Arab news network is a great step forward.
In the Greater Middle East, we are the revolutionary aggressor and the dictatorial regimes that made up the status quo are the enemy. We have momentum and freedom on our side. Let's keep going.
Now, in a comment I replied that, well, no, it's not great news. To quote myself:
Ah.....
No.
Sorry, you don't know the market here.
A quick sell off of al-Jazeerah for political reasons is not going to make al-Jazeerah "face market pressures."
It will do one of two things: (a) it puts it in the hands of a non-transparent owner that may very well take it out into la la land, (b) it goes fully commercial and fails - not enough of a free advert market - or goes fully commercial and starts toeing the public line because advert dollars in the region get directed for political reasons.
The Qatari ownership - tolerance of the loss making, commitment to trying to follow a rough BBC model was the best case scenario.
You guys on the American right need to rent a clue about the region, your proscriptions are so wildly off base I really don't know how to get you on base.
Our original commentator replied (more politely than myself, one must confess, but abstracting away from that):
Thanks for the note. A move toward a free market of ideas would be a good thing. It's not in the interests of the world that Arabs see only government propganda.
You mention two possible outcomes of a privitized al Jazeera, and either are acceptable. al Jazeera is already a quixotic network, playing to popular emotions over any coherent message. When Iran accuses an anti-American station of being a Zionist plot, it's already in la-la land.
If it fails, so be it. There are other Arab stations. If no Arab station has a market, then Arab medai interest is diverted into places where there are free sources (say, blogs, whether anti-American, Islamist, Arab Nationalist, or liberal).
Your analogy to the BBC is interesting. The BBC is a Leftist anti-American government behemoth. Such a state media is hardly compatible with a liberal society, and if the "BBC model" fails both in the UK and Qatar, wonderful!
A free market of ideas, and market freedom in general are vital to democracy. Shai Iraq's lack of a functioning market is the greatest long-run threat it has (after the insurgency). While there may be some natural state sectors, media is not one of them.
Thanks again for the note. Your comments are very original and challenging.
Now initially I was going to continue this dialogue on the blog's comments but I realized my commentary was more extensive than perhaps comments permit. Thus, at the risk of annoying, a rather more public approach.
On the comment, I have one ... shall I call it a factual correction? I think so. Regarding BBC, as a long time consumer of BBC news, I find the characterization "Leftist anti-American behemoth" rather overdone, as well as the assertion State owned or backed media is incompatible with a liberal society. Rubbish, so long as media creation etc. is relatively free, and the playing field is fairly level, and the state backed broadcaster is both legally and effectively independant (by realistic standards) from the government, it is perfectly compatible. To posture otherwise is simply staking the position of an ideologue. That being said, I am not a huge fan of the model either, but I see no reason to make absurd over the top claims. In regards to BBC and leftism, the news strikes me as solidly centrist and balanced, although in trade issues and the like, it turns Left. Or anti-globalization. Anti-American? Sometimes, but not absurdly so. More to the ponit, our writer seems to have the mistaken impression that ownership is driving the presentation, rather than audience. An a priori position, and in both cases my sense is that quite the contrary, audience is driving, not ownership.
Regardless, I see no "failure" in re the model in the UK (although one might prefer alternate models, but then I point out even FT and Economist, normally great fans of privatization, do not have their axes out over BBC, whatever its shortcomings, it hardly is a failure by reasonable benchmarks. Arguably things could be better, of course, but that's another issue).
Now, regarding the characterization of al-Jazeerah as lacking a "coherent message" and being in "la la land" because Iran has accused it of being a "Zioinist plot", I have to say, sorry, you have no clue as to what you're talking about.
The station certainly has a coherent point of view: old school Arab Nationalist. Once one understands that, everything about it becomes quite understandable. The "message" in that context is quite coherent and very much in the realm of the tastes of most if not all of its viewership (which is of course international). The accusation of being a Zionist plot is hardly a sign of being in "la la land" and to say so merely indicates you don't know the region at all; the accusation comes from the fact that al-Jazeerah does not hesitate to deal with Israel, covers Israeli issues more or less even handedly, has Israelis on for interviews, etc. etc. Now, they are indeed "anti Israel" in a context of being critical, but they do indeed more or less even handedly allow Israelis to publicize their arguments, POV, and more or less even handedly cover Israeli views.
Certainly imperfect, but considering that in 1996 no one was doing this, they broke the doors open for free media. Ten years later things could move forward, but it's absurd to call them incoherent or in la la land.
So, leaving aside the BBC quibble and the characterization of al-Jazeerah ( I confess I find both irritating when I see bandied about among people who presumbly have little to no sustained direct consumer relationship with BBC), there is the issue of this "privatization."
I am squarely against this firesale type move (if it comes off as reported). It is a gross error.
Let me note, I am no lefty. In grosso modo, I am fully for free markets, private enterprise etc. I am after all in the financial sector. I have no issues at all with private media ownership, in fact in a properly regulated environment to prevent excessive concentration, I am 100 percent for it. However a does of realism is necessary.
Rather, as I noted, the present media market in the Arab World is not capable of sustaining a healthy competition in news media, and a forced, political fire sale of al Jazeerah is not going to move towards a "a free market of ideas" - in fact quite the contrary. Our commentator seems to believe, per this phrase: "It's not in the interests of the world that Arabs see only government propganda." that al Jazeerah is Qatari governmental agitprop. Quite the contrary, it rather stays away from all things Qatari, and seems entirely market driven (ex its willingness to give Israelis a voice). The voice of al Jazeerah reflects more or less what the market will bear, and shows no sign of Qatari governmental interference (with the sole exception of not covering Qatar, which given Qatar is insanely rich, moderate and teeny-weeny, is a small hiccup we can live with).
Rather, given the poor media market here, this will either become disguised government ownership (less transparent in other words) or the mouthpiece of a Saudi who is as likely to destroy the brand and its free media approach.
The idea that Arabs will turn to things like blogs and the like is risible. Please, please don't write such nonsense. First, most internet media is in roman alphabet, which a majority do not know well. Second, internet penetration is poor at best, third, there are already the Sat TV stations, and without al-Jazeerah we go back to the single choice model (this time with al-Arabiyah), meaning less competition, and the .... drum roll, real State TV stations.
The issue here is that with an immature market, largely due to structural issues that also constrain "alternative" sources. It would be great if a genuine market in media was ready in the Arab world (and believe me, I've studied this for private equity), but it is not yet. Multiple reasons I will not go into, of which regulatory is but one.
As such, one has to work within the framework of what is actually possible. Rushing ahead with the naive idea that markets will magically support or solve issues gets one in a world of hurt, as the CPA found out in Iraq.
Eventual privatization of al-Jazeerah as a genuine advert market emerges, as the concept of free media and expression gets more ground, etc. is something to plan for and hopefully will occur. A fire sale political privatization to get ill informed American critics and ill informed as well as petulant American official pressure off the Qatari government's back is not. It's likely to create a non-transparent transfer, a less competitive environment for news and actually set back the idea of free media.
In short, it's wrong headed.
Now, I noted at the start that this was an occasion to reflect on American policy in general and the problem of appropriately specifying the problems.
The comments supra reflect, and my apologies (bounded as they are) if I misread, a rather typical misreading of the situation as something like Eastern Europe, as Cold War II.
Quite simply, this is not the case. The MENA region structurally - either from an economic or a political point of view is in a quite different space. Market structures are present, simply badly developed (in most cases) and facing rather significant natural barriers (MENA region at its best has a thin natural resource base, with unstable natural environemnts). There is some significant hangover from Arab Socialism, and a history of state ownership, but there is also a history of contnuing market economies. Egypt, Syria and Algeria are the only countries that come really close to the Eastern European situation; all three are basket cases economically although the Egyptian situ is by far the most frightening.
However, the economic structural problems in gross throughout the region are ones markedly different in most respects from Eastern Europe. They range from mass illiteracy (although several Arab countries have very good rates), domination by traditional "big family" commercial groups with a rather risk adverse rent seeking profile, and a number of extreme manifestations of rather typical developing world business issues (see: here).
The political environment for change is not that of Eastern Europe throwing off its Soviet yoke, but of a resentful distrustful set of populations with memories of the (often very real, although as well oft exagerated) injustices of Western European rule and intervention, as well as the West's cynical support of dictators where convenient. Not that I have anything against cynical support of dictators per se, but one has to be realistic about the results, as well as the costs. It makes one's high flying rhetoric ring rather hollow in the ears of others.
Posted by The Lounsbury at February 2, 2005 05:36 PM
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Jan-July 2005
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Our Dear Father of Aardvark's has an interesting posty on al Jazeerah's market position and some recent claims that al Arabiyah is beating it out that has interest from both commercial and socio-political points of view.... [Read More]
Tracked on January 21, 2006 12:15 AM
