Lounsbury: The Lounsbury Take on the Elections (Iraq)

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February 02, 2005

The Lounsbury Take on the Elections (Iraq)

So far, so good.

First, the process so far looks far better than my pessimism predicted. It's always good to be surprised by the upside, not the downside.

Second, keep in mind this is not a "victory" - this is a step towards a potential shift in direction, a positive step, a positive shift, but it's all potential. Don't get carried away with the simple minded rhetoric and so forth. It's clear that most Iraqis would like to see stabiltiy and peace. So did most Lebanese. However, the hard men with the guns have a way of trumping the middle.

If the US can play a savvy game (I discount this at a very, very high discount rate, let's say if the idea of the US playing a savvy game here was commercial paper, it would be junk status), then things can turn around.

I actually had a convo with my contact Sunday, worth mentioning on this subject. For some reason he thinks I know what I am talking about - frankly I kinda sorta know relative only to people not in the region; politics is not my speciality. This aside, we were rapping about the game going forward, I noted that I am sure that if the government emerging from these elections wants to maintain street cred, they have to - no question about this - ask the US to leave, and at least make noises about it being right soon. Noises, of course, are negotiable, a bargaining position. My contact opined that no way was the US not going to get bases, "of course" the Iraqis would want them. I don't think so myself - but my advice, were I an advisor to Rice, would be leave the question open to discussion when the US has some positive Baraka on the ground. Right now the feel good factor in re US troop presence is absent, in fact it's negative (and that is largely the US's own trigger happy penny wise pound foolish 'force protecting' fault - I note, and I am sure I said this in public, say on the SDMB, that my Milintel Amigos in Amman were complaining the Boys needed crash training on policing else bad things would happen. They were right, but their head honchos did not act.). You don't want to push the question when you'r hated. Merely disliked is okay, hated, no.

The savvy game was to be to keep obvious interference to a minimum, to be ready to play ball with the religious Shiites and not get hung up on the idiotic rhetoric of the Islamophobes in re "theocracy" and the like. Tehran won big influence, but in this move, playing American football style blocking only blows your game. This has to be martial arts, use the challenger's momentum, not block it like a dumb log.

Engagement, sophisticated diplomacy and pure cynicism looking for stability can actually turn this bitch around.

Stupidity, self-deception and pandering to the Know Nothing crowd in the US at the expense of doing deals that need to be done will fuck this into hell again.

So, note to my conservo readers: What's needed is not a Choir Chorus, it's barking to make sure the game is not fucked.

I prefer winning myself.

And there is always my zombie project....... I would shed tears of greedy joy if somehow these contemptible idiots got the game right.

February 02, 2005

The Lounsbury Take on the Elections (Iraq)

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