Lounsbury: Cole, amusing note

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March 28, 2005

Cole, amusing note

Just to indicate I still like the guy, despite his inane post on the oil sector issue:

"A different kind of violence, social violence, broke out on Sunday. About 50 building guards demonstrated outside the ministry of Science and Technology, protesting that they had not been paid their salaries in full. Bodyguards for the minister, Rashad Mandan Omar, shot into the crowd and killed one.

Generally, I'd say you want to avoid killing the people who guard your building if you are a cabinet minister in Iraq (many ministers have had assassination attempts on their lives). In fact, I'd say if you made sure anyone was paid, it should be the guards outside your building. (Does this mean the Iraqi government is broke, having been badly hurt by oil pipeline sabotage?)"

Emphasis added. Funny and true.

I doubt the lack of payment says anything about the Iraqi government not having liquidity to pay salaries, it probably suggests that payment systems are breaking down and/or graft is siphoning off monies before it reaches the little guys.

I note the above, if it is frequent is a very bad sign. More of a bad sign than the random violence - it suggests an operational government that will be still born in legitimacy terms.

I remain of the view that while things have gotten moderately better in Iraq of late, this does not reflect a fundamental shift but a sidewise slide in "trading" / activity. Until a government forms, and one knows the shape of things, it is impossible to have a solid view on where the new trend is. All the signs are that Iraq is sliding inexorably towards communitarian civil strife - likely along the Lebanese glide path I have evoked previously.

By the way, I have to say it is hard not to conclude Lebanon is approaching the same dynamic. Why so many soi disant Leb experts opined this was impossible escapes me. I guess talking to the Middle Class one never thinks the hard men are willing to go one bridge too far. Unfortunately, they almost always are.

To quote my mentor on this, from an email where I opined we're seing 1975 bis: "I share your skepticism re Lebanon. I've been watching that country's travails since the early 70's. But let's hope."

March 28, 2005

Cole, amusing note

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