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March 14, 2005
Leb Land: Demo, Counter Demo, Escalation.
Today's big ass demo by the opposition is an interesting development. Main issue in mind - where does the pressure that is building go? What do Amal and Hizbullah do? This has some ugly potential for building up the Shia versus everyone else playbook. Ugly. I hope the deal makers sit down - I don't like the signs here.
EDITED to Quote comment:
I want to quote this comment:
Too true. This is shaping up into a sectarian game of chicken.
These demonstrations don't actually have anything to do with Syria. If you listen carefully, everyone more-or-less agrees on the ostensible topic of dispute -- Most everyone is in favor of a Syrian withdrawal and Lebanese sovereignty. At most, there's a disagreement about timing and about whether the Syrians should be asked to leave nicely or imperiously.
But these are everyday questions of diplomacy that are amenable compromise. 500,000 people aren't turning out on the streets over whether the Lebanese government should express "concern" or "serious concern" over the Syrian presence. They're turning out in the streets because they want to stake their claims to power after Syria leaves.
These demonstrations are, at their cores, power plays by sectarian interests. If they can couple this to democracy (which, I'm sad to say, I doubt) things might turn out OK. Unfortunately, the logical extension of the current round of "Can you top this?" is an armed conflict.
Emphasis added.
My anon. commentator hit the nail on the head. I expressed this concern earlier - the escalation is disturbing. While I know some ahem expert blogs out there have poo pooed the idea of renewed sectarian conflict, I have a word - middle class complacency. Hard men with guns, a bomb, escalations, hardening lines. No one thought 1975 would run out of control at the time either.
Posted by The Lounsbury at March 14, 2005 05:31 PM
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Jan-July 2005
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