Lounsbury: Wolfowitz

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March 18, 2005

Wolfowitz

Wolfowitz further thoughts.

I have been kicking around my thoughts on Wolfowitz�s candidacy for the Presidency of World Bank and finally have a position.

I am against. But not because I think Wolfowitz is a bad guy (like I have said, I have met and talked with him at length a long time ago and have a soft spot for him, ex his utterly whack ideas on military and transformation), nor that his ideas as I knew them on economic development are bad, nor that he himself would be a bad guy in the position. Actually, abstracting away from what I am about to note, I would support him.

No, rather simply and sadly for the following reasons:
(i) The Bush Administration botched the naming and stupidly, clumsily and self-indulgently poisoned the well. They can win it, but winning it is likely a Pyrrhic victory � i.e. a highly negative cost-benefit balance.
(ii) Wolfowitz at present is carrying too much negative political baggage internationally for this context, and if the US wants to be truly influential, someone with the right thinking but without the baggage would be better.
(iii) For WB I would prefer the institution have a strong leader who will be able to motivate change due to personal credibility in both management terms and expertise in the field. I don�t see that with Wolfowitz. I am not impressed by the fuzzy � touchy feely culture centered rubbish that WB has gotten involved in and would prefer to see it moved back to a stronger core economic development focus. (Although as an aside, I recognize the motivation for the vaguely lefty squishy stuff had good roots � i.e. recognizing culture is a variable in economic situs)

I would say then that he could be the right guy, but it�s the wrong time. I also note that he�s not an obvious choice in regards to background in economics and emerging markets, which weakens his case a bit.

I simply don�t see the benefit in expending political capital forcing him into WB where he is likely to face serious internal opposition and where he does not have the �weight� in professional cred to motivate change.

Pity, because in this context I genuinely like the guy. He�s smart, he thinks and I can attest he really does care about the emerging market economic development issues. But his experience on applied management here as well as policy is thin, and with the political baggage�.. it is not going to work. Without the political baggage he would be an unusual, perhaps a bit weak but potentially interesting choice.

March 18, 2005

Wolfowitz

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