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April 30, 2005

So long as we're thinking of Cairo

This story from Friday amuses me immensely. Anyone who has lived in Cairo can sympathize. Some of the worst muezzines in the entire world blasting out high decibal crap:

Last Updated: Friday, 29 April, 2005, 14:35 GMT 15:35 UK
E-mail this to a friend Printable version
Cairo dilemma over prayer calls
By Sylvia Smith
Cairo
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4485521.stm

The comments are amusing also. I note the people who have not been to Cairo stand out (like Yusuf the idiot American Hindi Muslim on "secularism" in calling the call to prayer cacophony. Clearly he's never been to the screaming madness that is Cairo.)

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Cairo: a world of bad.

Well, hard to read what is going precisely at the moment in Cairo, but since the mass football mania next door to me has driven me to the office, a word on Cairo.

I won't bother with links at this early date, suffice it to say a bomb, possibly thrown, killed an Egyptian (or alternately he was the bomber) near the Egyptian Museum, and then two muhajabat (hijab wearing cows) tried to shoot up a tour bus in the old city. The last has some small novelty value, although for the same of women's rights and all that, one would have wished they had not proven such awful shots. This sets back women's tourism by years. At least one had the presence of mind to shoot her companion, although she proved less skilled in committing suicide (as of this hour). (Alternate versions have them being gunned down by police, although given the shitty nature of Egyptian police I prefer the more amusing semi-competence in suicide)

Reflecting on the meaning, there are two main streams of thought, besides my disappointment at the inauspicious beginnings for women's tourism in Egypt. Equal rights and all that. Algerians did it much better. This aside, the two main thoughts are: (i) kefayah (enough) feelings are running rather hotter than Mubarek the Fat Shrimp Eater thought and you're seeing the extremist expression now, (ii) seems a trifle convenient for the Fat Shrimp Eater, this niggling thought occurs that security apparatus might have loosened up and let some bunglers move ahead to give pretext for a big ass crack down on the nice and appropriately scary Islamists as well as, conveniently enough, everyone else. Stability and all that. While perhaps a bit too cynical, I do point to Algeria and the dark things "le Pouvoir" did there.

However, overall I would opine you're seeing the harvest of radicalization post Iraq - not surprising in basket case Egypt.

Of course, I note that none of the three ideas expressed are mutually exclusive.

PS: I recall in this connexion with amusement attending a public event some five years ago in New York where the speaker - someone prominent in the current Admin circles - opined forcefully and confidently that women in the Muslim world were too repressed to ever play a role in terrorism. The speaker knew that they were only kept at home.....

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:50 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

April 29, 2005

Rolling along

I can think of few things I enjoy more than translating or summarizing obscure Central Bank jargon. Perhaps root canels.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

April 28, 2005

Well, on sliminess

Just coming back from my ever-so-convenient Euro owned Supermarket (or hypermart if you will), where I can get everything but condoms, I have to confess maybe I should buy less rhum.

Ran into a chica who apparently knows me there, also shopping - I say apparently as she knows my name although I don't recall meeting her. Wish I did, she is very memorable. I must have had a convo, although perhaps given today's push up and low cut outfit, my mind was elsewhere.

But no hidjab.

Nevertheless, her knowing my name and me not recalling her is not good.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

On the news: Chalabi interim in oil

Well, you have to hand it to the slimey fuck, he got a sweet short term deal.

Let's see. Biggest money spinner. Chaotic with poor oversight. Much sweet spending.

Why, it makes me think of the steel deal. Indeed. It really makes me think of the steel deal.

Although I have to go take a shower when I think this way.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:44 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

On Arab Media - al Jazeera

Abu Aardvark draws my attention to a truly idiotic editorial in WSJ on al Jazeera (no surprise there):
http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2005/04/dorrance_smith_.html

I have the original text and shall have my own comments when I finish addressing work issues. I do note that anyone who was a responsible official with CPA should be automatically considered entirely incompetent in regards to any Arab region issues and ridiculed if they try to provide "advice" on how to handle the region. Contemptible idiots ruined an excellent opportunity.

I also read al Jazeera is still being pimped around - hopefully the Qataris are only making noises to passify the Moron Knee Jerkers in the US rather than actually crumpling.

I also note the amusing Aardvark series on sexy girls in Arab vidclips.

One item he does not note, girls wearing hidjabs and really revealing (if not skin revealing) clothing is not in any way uncommon. Indeed it is common. I can not count the times I have reflected, standing across the desk from a Sec. or the like on the funny purpose of the super tight skirt/jeans/pants with super tight shirt/blouse coupled with some form of hidjab. The sexier wrap ones just about entirely defeat the ostensible purpose.

Pity, I should work on a layout of sexy hidjab wearing girls, utterly blow the stereotypes so very prevalent back in the West in re the hidjab.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

April 26, 2005

Oh perhaps fashionable now. Iraq. Civil War.

For a while I was getting worried that my congenital cynicysm and pessimism would not serve me well (although the steel project almost overcome those traits with my greed and cynicysm).

ANALYSIS-Once taboo words 'civil war' now spoken in Iraq
26 Apr 2005 14:14:13 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Luke Baker
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/BAK623643.htm

"I do not want to say civil war, but we are going the Lebanese route, and we know where that led," says Sabah Kadhim, an adviser to the Interior Ministry who spent years in exile before returning to Iraq after Saddam Hussein's overthrow.

......

The failure to form a government in the immediate aftermath of the ballot, when the nation was buoyed by the fact more than 8 million people defied threats and voted, has allowed distrust to grow as all sides scramble to secure a share of power.

"The huge window of opportunity created by the success of the elections has been frittered away in the politics of personal gain and internecine squabbling," said Toby Dodge, an Iraq expert at Queen Mary University of London.

Well, although I wavered, my underlying feeling is in the Middle East you can usually count on the super-atomized clannish nature of politics to fritter away virtually any opportunity in any given moderately consensus based decision setting.

I was wrong when I said that elections would change nothing, but not wrong in presuming that in the end they would not really change the political calculus that has slid more or less inexorably to maximalism.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

In Amusing Business Assertions

I've thought about commenting on this for a bit, but it is a bit dry. Nevertheless, in the local market there is an ongoing controversy over a new bill revising pharma sector regs. Frankly, it is a damned good law, gets rid of a lot of archaic rubbish regulation. Not enough, but in the Arab region we have to move slowly, slowly.

This of course has provoked massive protest on the part of pharmacists. Such bizarre regulations as any pharmaceutical company (producer, distributor) has to have 50 percent of its capital held by pharmacists (what the logic of this is utterly escapes me, but it's a great rent for pharmacists) and equally the limitation on the size of the pharmacy are about to go out the door. This provoked a general strike by pharmacists a few weeks ago - bloody lazy gits don't even stay open after 19:00 or 20:00 so I don't know how they can "strike" - but now the latest and most amusing maneuver(s) are the dual claim that the pharmacists union should be authorized to license all new pharmacy opening (great give a clubby bunch of self-interested slime more power over their little inefficient and inconvenient cartel) and ban clinics from having internal pharmacies.

This last produced an assertion that still amuses me. The assertion that a clinic (hospital in fact) having an on premises pharmacy is "disloyal competition prejudicial to the profession."

Wonderous that. Fuck the sick people, make 'em walk 100 meters.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:16 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Eurotunnel

Eurotunnel seeks debt write-off
By Mary Watkins in London
Published: April 26 2005 08:22 | Last updated: April 26 2005 12:10
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/92d7f44e-b620-11d9-aebd-00000e2511c8.html

The odd thing about Eurotunnel is that it's been obvious for ages that there is no way that it can service the debt. Not in any realistic world (ex Europe suddenly firing up 6 percent growth... hahahhaha, sorry).

It's a bit painful, but they may as well bloody default and get over with it. If I was a bond holder I'd go for an equity conversion (might as well, you're effectively in that position) or except pennies. .... Of course one could always offload, same-same when it comes down to it.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Pope - I think Benny the Rat is a good monicker.

I don't have strong feelings about Popes - other than my generic contempt for all religious figures and some lingering ancestral hostility towards the Roman model of churches. However, this article really made me lose any perhaps reflexive respect for this lying pig:

Pope Prayed That He Wouldn't Get the Job
Pontiff Tells German Pilgrims That God 'Didn't Listen to Me'
By Daniel Williams
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, April 26, 2005; 12:00 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/03/25/AR2005032507903.html

Yeah. Right. You didn't really want to be Pope.

Then known as Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, he could have eliminated himself from contention by getting up before any of the closed-door votes in the Sistine Chapel and telling the other 114 cardinal electors he didn't want the papacy. Numerous news reports said that Ratzinger had a well-organized cluster of supporters able to round up votes quickly. It took only four ballots to elect him.

In Monday's audience, Benedict suggested he was dissuaded from dropping out by a fellow cardinal who slipped him a note reminding him of a biblical story about Jesus and Peter, the founder of the Roman Catholic Church. In the story, Jesus tells Peter to follow him even to places he might not want to go. Ratzinger had used the story as the basis of a sermon during John Paul's funeral Mass. "Then I had no choice, and I said yes," he told the pilgrims.

Right, no choice at all. Scheming politico, at least be honest.

This sort of posturing is contemptible.

(I note in closing that I really don't give a fuck about his politics, policies or Pope positions, I expect the Roman church to be an anachronism, so no comments on that substance please.)

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

And finally, Iraq, POW item

Court Declines to Review POWs' Lawsuit Against Iraq
Associated Press
Tuesday, April 26, 2005; Page A02
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/04/25/AR2005042501277.html

A very good thing. Nothing worse, in my opinion, than using courts in foreign policy realms. Bloody stupid law to begin with. Sadly the American government seems to have a growing penchant for extraterritoriality for its laws. Short sighted, stupid, cheap political manoevers.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:38 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Oops, another pretext slips away

Report Finds No Evidence Syria Hid Iraqi Arms
By Dana Priest
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, April 26, 2005; Page A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/04/25/AR2005042501554.html

What can one say? Somewhat old news now, but the conspiracy mongers have a harder row to hoe.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:22 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

In amusing reflexions

First, it comes to mind I watched an al-Jazeerah interview with an Iraqi Sunni leader. It was quite comical, the guy (old school style Arab nationalist) kept insisting there are no Sunnis, no Shia, everyone is in fact Sunna. Uh huh. It was delusional. The anchor kept poking him and his rhetoric kept getting more stupid. What is it about the Arab world that so much of its leadership seems mired in the failed 1970s agitprop?

Boring interview overall, after poking him got old.

In other, trivial matters, but in some ways important: the local quasi private TV station has begun a competition for entrepreneurs, a TV competition. Some 1000 odd people are signing up to take part in it - apparently the winner will see the project financed. It's a pity the show is relatively poorly produced - almost an interview format. Not that interesting, but hopefull will get better. Nevertheless, I take these things as a good sign that society is changing, that instead of going on strike to get government jobs, young university leavers will start to look at private sector opportunities (more realistically, sadly a recent survey of MBA graduates found 60 percent wanted.... drum roll.... government jobs. I wonder if they knew what an MBA was when they signed up?).

Otherwise, still pulling for that no vote on the EU constitution.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:12 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Well for some reason

A general strike has been called here over some employment law nonsense. No one seems to be following it though. Stupid unions here have yet to understand this is not France, 1975. Idiot leadership has no clue.

Never mind the special employment rights they're striking for only apply to the formal sector, the labor elite as it were. They're of course pretending this is about protecting the workers. Rubbish, it's about protecting the priviledged minority who can work for firms that can afford absurd, French style social protections that even a rich economy has trouble bearing, while fucking over the rest of the laboring lumps.

I truly do loathe labor unions. Not in theory, but in practice.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:59 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

And another one bites the dust

Well, another officer resigned this week, per the finely worded staff announcement.

As I calculate that, 30 percent of responsible staff back at HQ have resigned this month. I'm impressed. 30 percent turnover in one month among experienced front line staff is an impressive achievement. Why if senior management keeps this pace up, they will soon have zero experienced officers, and have successfully rid themselves of all institutional memory by year end.

Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant. If only the Titanic's Captain had understood that when your guts have been torn out, the best solution is "damn the torpedos, full steam ahead!"

On the other hand, in the short term, this no doubt will put a stop to anti overseas office scheming as they are likely to be entirely consumed by HQ infighting and chaos.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:15 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

April 25, 2005

Leb Land - Fin Min.

I was suitably horrified by this:

New Lebanese Finance Minister upbeat on economy
The DailyStar - 25/04/2005

BEIRUT: Newly-appointed Finance and Economy and Trade Minister Damianos Kattar said on Saturday the government will "pump money into the market" and promised more loans for small businesses. Speaking at a ceremony in his hometown of Jezzine, which gave him a "key to the town," Kattar said he was encouraged by an upswing in the market following the formation of a new Cabinet headed by telecoms tycoon Najib Mikati last week.

"The government should not say it doesn't have the funds because the people are paying their taxes," Kattar said. "So the government has to pump money into the market and keep the wheels of the economy turning."

This from a government skating on the edge of insolvency.

"We must allow small institutions and enterprises to get loans from banks," Kattar said. "The means to get loans must be improved."

Ooo, just what the financial crisis doctor ordered, underpriced, politically motivated lending to sketchy small businesses. Perfect.

Kattar added: "The economic situation is good and the government will exert all efforts to ensure that progress continues. The new government is serious and it is cohesive."

Right. Situ is just super.

The Finance Ministry also released figures this month showing the budget deficit at a post-war low as a result of increasing tax revenue from VAT and a drop in expenditures.

Well, that is genuinely positive, ex of course the above indicates the drop in expenditures ain't lasting.

He is expected to focus on providing aid to small businesses which were devastated by the economic downturn following the Hariri assassination and the string of bomb attacks in commercial areas last month.

A government soft loan program called Kafalat, intended to help small business owners, has seen applications surge for its almost zero interest loans after bombs ripped through an industrial complex in Sad al-Bouchrieh and a commercial area in Kaslik in March.

Hmmm, well in some ways it is hard to fault, on the other hand a debt financed spree for a decade with accumulated government and private debt reaching unsustainable levels..... wait that sounds like another country.....

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:43 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

A short note on the EU Constitution

My opinion. The unwieldy thing should go down in flames. European integration at present is a crock, and frankly a slap of realism is very much needed. Forcing this ahead largely to pander to French driven Americaophobia and wooley ideas about a European super-state modeled on France's sclerotic system is not a good idea.

I do note I am not a congenital Francophobe and not opposed to European integration, but the clownish way in which (the admittedly idiotic and poorly thought out) stability pact break-down has been dealt with, the faisco of the Services issue, etc. have convinced me Europe needs a genuine crisis to shake out the dead wood, scare the French and generally make the whole Continent get serious about reforms.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:51 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Bolton Again

It rather looks like the problems are accumulating. I have to say that the more I read, the more I have to conclude that a reasonable observer must conclude that Bolton is not the right man for the job in any way, shape or form. Only ideology justifies his appointment. Shake up has to have buy in, this guy is not going to do it.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:40 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

MENA and Investing

Returning to this item, which again still needs to be confirmed, what I have been asked to comment on is Maghreb PE:
· Current and future trends in Maghreb Private Equity
· Privatization and deregulation as catalysts for the industry
· Successful strategies: sectors and investment phases
· Foreign versus local capital

In that context, I have things to say, but the context is going to be limiting.

I am interested in reader comments on the above, if you were in the audience.

By the way, one of the things I have to say on the subject is that the asset class is so new (oldest funds just hitting a decade old) it is hard to judge where the returns are.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:38 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Iraq, Government

A quick comment on this: as I have long feared, maximalism is setting in. The Kurds trying to upend Jaafari strikes me as a losing proposition. There are no two ways around it, the Shia Arab block and population is Islamist in its views. Kurds are not going to be able to undo that. Screwing with the government is simply going to push to the Shia towards the view they have to maximalize.

Already the sweet smell of civil war is in the air. Kurds are being short termist.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:36 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Egypt, where

Well, four day weekends are fine things, and although the tar baby that is my personal life has gotten worse, the rest was good. It rather appears for 'my own good' I am getting tied down (there are other options, perhaps I can weasel out, but on the other hand I am most attached to myself). And even the foot is almost back to normal - above all as I have mastered walking without too much pressume on the toesies.

So, that of course that leads to Egypt.

A fairly decent column here on the place
Battle for Egypt's Future
By Jackson Diehl
Monday, April 25, 2005; Page A19
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/04/24/AR2005042400890.html

I have a very hard time crediting the idea that Mubarek is going to allow anything but a Ben Ali type election (although perhaps better done, although I doubt it). At least Ben Ali delivers economic growth.

I also lay good money on this latest liberalization campaign in Egypt petering out in about 6-9 months.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:17 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

On Fin Sector Developments

First, I see the local press has a spate of articles on the new anti Money Laundering bill that USG has been hounding them about. Bloody busy bodies. I have a soft spot in my heart for money laundering. It provides me with fancy cafes to while away my weekends at, at rock-bottom-can't-possibly-cover-operating-costs-let-alone cost-of-capital prices.

Besides, cracking down on ML is going to cut into the flow of money into the private sector from locals living and working in Europe and the Gulf, insofar as it goes by funky routes. That isn't a good idea. Social tension and all that. Well, probably can count on the government hemming and hawing for another year or two, and then the law being ineffectually applied.

Second, I see AIG is in for another round of restatements. I guess that North Africa expansion is probably right out now. Wasted my time buttering up the COO. Well, my ability to curse firms I enter into contact with seems to be undiminished. Maybe I should get in touch with GM's capital division and tilt the fucker into junk status.

Finally, I was looking at the AR of the local super holding company for Big Cheeses Interests. My single thought was "it was a brave auditor that signed off on this...." I have to say, for achieving a level of confusion, this one is a beauty.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:49 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

April 20, 2005

Expat scumminess and the LSE

Well, time to fuck off and enjoy my last 12 hours ability to damage my liver and behave like an idiot. Shall have to disappear the next 48 into family land, eat too much couscousi, sit on beach and work, perhaps have some italian ices, try to avoid or otherwise finesse probing questions from want to be relatives on my intentions and the like. Then another 48 lounging in much greater comfort on my veranda seeing how much rhum one human being can drink. 2.7 liters should about do it. White cuban rhum, and my newest fad, grapefruit juice. Moderately vile, but I like it.

I do enjoy being an expat. It plays to my scummy side.

In other matters, my maid has randomly rearranged her schedule again. I must be too nice. But it is very hard to find honest, hard working maids. Plus ones that are smart enough to operate on autopilot and go shopping for me (other than her annoying tendancy to try to save me money), which is good because I typically have no idea what's even in my apartment.

Finally, anyone have any ideas on securities screening tools online for the LSE and Euro exchanges? Free ones preferably, I'm lazy and cheap. Wanted to muck around a bit.

PS:
It appears this conference is a go, or at least I have heard nothing otherwise. Any thoughts on what you would like to hear if I were actually giving you a presentation on the Maghrebi private equity market? As a potential investor, not as a dirt seeker. I'm genuinely curious. Don't worry, I am likely to ignore you, as usual.

PPS:
Major investigation announced by the local market regulator. It appears they've suddenly decided to get righteous about the last round of IPO shenanigans from the 98-01 period. Well, I guess five years later is not inherently absurd. Considering that some people I know have retained people.... wonder if it would be in poor form to take odds on the chances this will not, like most other regulatory actions here, disappear into the sands..... Confidence building and all that. Make some noises, maybe whack a few of the truly egregious.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

In random regional business - reflexions

From this article in FT:
Decline and fall of the freebie
By Dan Roberts
Published: April 19 2005 19:06 | Last updated: April 19 2005 19:06

This is both amusing and of real interest
The surreal dilemmas sound like they could be drawn from a magazine advice column for paranoid lawyers: can I provide sacrificial goats for my customers in the Middle East? What if the client asks us to procure internal organs for his sick relative? Is it OK for me to donate cash at a Korean funeral?

These are not the made-up challenges of some legal agony aunt, but the real-life scenarios under discussion by senior executives responsible for setting policies for corporate hospitality and gifts in an increasingly strict US regulatory environment.

The conclusion of the executives, who recently gathered in New York for a summit on the problem, was that the fine grey line that separates acceptable generosity from the darker world of bribery and corruption has narrowed substantially.

What lies behind their nervousness is the growing impact of Sarbanes-Oxley corporate governance legislation on the already strict rules of the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Combine this with increasingly active enforcement agencies and the rapid globalisation of US business and there is a recipe for multinational angst on a grand scale.

Where minor local transgressions might once have been swept under the carpet, they are now likely to emerge as so-called "material weaknesses" in internal control reports requiring sign-off from a chief executive and finance director worried about their own liability. What might be common practice in Seoul or Yemen may not look so wholesome in front of the Securities and Exchange Commission or a Manhattan jury."

One begins to wonder how publicly listed US firms will be able to compete in emerging markets where ... ahem standard and legal practice departs from the increasingly absurdly prissy standards in the United States.

In particular, I draw attention to this observation:
"To those tempted to see this as American smugness, she points, in contrast, to sharply lower prosecution rates across much of Europe for similar international bribery cases. The problem is particularly acute in industries or regions of the world where a degree of modest generosity has always been seen as a polite way of building long-term relationships."

Indeed, emerging US standards are absurd and cold in the context of where I am at.

Now, to answer some intriguing questions at the end of the arty:
THE TRICKY PROBLEM OF STAYING IN THE REGULATORS’ GOOD BOOKS

What would you do? (A hypothetical dilemma posed by Trace International).

You have a contract for a high-value project in a developing country and it states that payments will be made by the customer at certain milestones in the project. To determine if the milestones have been reached, the contract calls for periodic visits to the facility. The contract is silent on how the cost of these trips will be handled.

1) Your main contact at the customer asks your company to pay for the trips, including travel and lodging. What do you do?
2) Several committee members say they plan to bring their spouses.
3) The trip is unexpectedly prolonged for a second week for legitimate reasons and, as the weekend approaches, the committee members ask what you have planned for them for Saturday and Sunday. They make it clear that they have always dreamed of seeing Disney World.
4) Assume the contract includes a per diem allowance for these visits. When and to whom do you pay the per diem?
5) You want to host meals at the beginning and the end of their trip. Any concerns?

Answering from my emerging markets perspective (w/o regards to stupid American idiot rules)
(1): If it's a significant contract and the margin allows, absolutely. Not so big, or not such big margin, maybe offer a cost share.
(2): Tell them that's fine, but spouses are on their dime, although offer assistance on visas.
(3): Arrange a trip to Disney World, at their expense, but take on the logistics. Possibly arrange transport and deals on the same. If milestones are in a dodgeyway, look into cost sharing.
(4) Presuming a general cash allowance, each member in by cheque or similar instrument, for the week, up front with proper notation of per diem.
(5) None.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Roots Subj: Fin Sec. and Wolf, FT; Financial Balance of Terror

Martin Wolf again has an excellent analysis of the rather dodgey position the world's economy finds itself in, with regards to global financial flows.

US deficits aren’t just China's problem
By Martin Wolf
Published: April 19 2005 20:47 | Last updated: April 19 2005 20:47
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/b3cf88b0-b107-11d9-9bfc-00000e2511c8.html
""If you owe your bank a hundred pounds, you have a problem. But if you owe a million, it has." John Maynard Keynes"

After the pitty quote from Keynes (Keynes was indeed a real master of pithy quotes one is constantly reminded, our man Wolf has a bit of fun pointing out that while the quote appears to reflect US official thinking, it may not be true:

"If Keynes was right, the world's creditor countries have a huge problem and the US none at all. Yet the assumption that the creditors should be more terrified than the debtor is wrong if the latter needs to continue borrowing. If creditors face an endless stream of additional borrowing and a good chance of default at the end of it, they should refuse to throw good money after bad. They will then impose huge costs on the debtor.

This balance of financial terror, as it has been called, characterises the current huge flows of finance to the US. Carefully thought through economic policy is needed if the world is to extricate itself from this predicament. Alas, we can rely on the administration of George W. Bush not to provide it.

The last line is both amusing and true. And it gets better (as an aside I suspect it is the following kind of writing that had clueless nitwits at Political Animal echoing the clueless post bashing The Economist and whinging on about the snottiness of the writing. Whinging gits.)

So it proved at this weekend's meeting of the Group of Seven leading industrial countries. The communiqué remarked that "we emphasise that more flexibility in exchange rates is desirable for major countries and areas that lack such flexibility". If anyone was in doubt about what that meant, John Snow, the US treasury secretary, insisted that China should embrace a looser exchange rate immediately. Mr Snow is not the organ-grinder of US economic policy but the monkey. But he accurately reflected the "China-bashing" now sweeping across US politics, so painfully reminiscent of the Japan-bashing of past decades.

I personally found the monkey line priceless, but I may have a mean streak.

Wolf highlights the rebuttal well enough (although sometimes biting the hand that feeds one is quite useful):
As Nouriel Roubini of New York University promptly responded, the US attack on one of its principal creditors is playing with fire. In the past two years, he argues, three quarters of the US fiscal deficit has been financed by foreign central banks, 100 per cent of the fiscal deficit has been financed from abroad and about 80 per cent of the current account deficit has been financed by foreign central banks.* Biting the hand that feeds one is folly.

According to the International Monetary Fund, the US general government fiscal deficit this year will be 4.4 per cent of gross domestic product, while the current account deficit is forecast to be 5.8 per cent of GDP. At present, therefore, the American people are able to consume and invest as if the fiscal deficits did not exist. The treasury secretary of what is arguably the most fiscally irresponsible US administration since the second world war should fall down on his knees in thanks rather than indulge in complaints.

Queer that, the most fiscally irresponsible administration - true and a lesson about ideology versus practicality, and believing one's one agitprop to the point of willful denial of reality.

However, the real issue here is not solely the madness of the Bush Administration, but rather the overall system. And most seriously the degree to which adjustment has to involve major changes in emerging market behaviours as well as on the part of the profligate navel gazing US.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Perso Trivia

Well my moles inside New York report that contra expectations, the Big Fat Idiot told the management committee that me and the Director are doing a fabulous job in a "very difficult market." Also, someone forwarded me a highly complimentary letter to the Big Divorced From Reality Director about us.

It may be we're not going in flames quite as soon as I thought. We're still fucked given the shitty offer, but what the hell. On the other hand another resignation was announced today, another senior staffer out. Hard to tell if this is blood letting, rats fleeing or a bit of both. I vote both.

Now, on the other hand, I am trapped into going to visit bloody women's family over this goddamned break. I hate doing such, bloody endless supply of cousins, uncles, and others who simply bore me. At least I can take my laptop, maybe go work on the beach.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:35 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

On Arab Democracy, Genocides and Facile Thinking

Largely because I simply can't stand working on this proposal in front of me (yet more snake oil for the gullible fools), some random, largely incoherent and certainly not at all well thought through rambling.

First, I was reading the new editions of Oxford Business Propaganda Unit's "Emerging Country" X series. Not bad, actually considering they're moderately bought and paid for, it is not that far off of EIU. But to the point, one of the pieces in the Emerging Morocco edition 2005 had the opinion as follows: the gradualist but genuine changes of a Morocco are far more likely to be a beacon of democracy in the medium term than Iraq.

I agree with that sentiment. Evolutionary change in Morocco is proceeding quite well. I've had over a decade of connexion with the country... indeed 15 years now, it's encouraging to see how a fairly free and critical media has emerged. True, there are red lines, as in getting up and denouncing the King as a medoicre playboy (after a strong start he has begun to show some tendancies to ADD Playboy disorder) being right out. However, everything else in right in, including denouncing the government as a bunch of incompetent slackers for forgetting to send a delegation to the World Economic Forum Arab Competitiveness Whanking two weeks ago. The "maquillage" as people like to put it no longer works in the press (as it does in Tunisia - whose numbers, while strong, may be dodgier than the Moroccan numbers - although Tunisia has better overall macroeconomic policies and knows how to market itself). Particularly illustrative was how the press took apart the ministerial whinging that the WEF assessment was based on old numbers (true), which was a moronic excuse insofar as it was those same ministers that failed to produce up to date and viable numbers (true).

As anyone reading me of late knows, I have only contempt for the idiocy of "democratic transformation because the US is suddenly pretending to play the transformation game." Democracy in a real sense does not emerge from some demos more about protecting established interests (Lebanon) or a one-off election (Iraq), it comes from evolution within a society. On Iraq, I highly doubt the current balance can hold against unresolved issues between Sunni Arabs, Shia (Arab and Turcomans), and Sunni Kurds.

Nope, quiet little Morocco may be the better long haul bet. I'd throw Tunisia in there if I thought Ben Ali was ever going to wise up and introduce a modicum of reform. His regime has done a fine job of delivering real economic growth over the longer term for Tunisians, and has made them all richer. However, signs are the corruption and non-transparency factors are starting to grow as problems. Letting go of the Cult of Ben Ali would go a ways to letting the press get rough and tumble. I doubt Tunisia would change much - the example of Algeria was deeply sobering for most people.

(I recount again the joke I think I have recounted before - actually much funnier in Arabic: An Algerian Dog coming back from vacation in Tunisia meets a Tunisian Dog coming from vacation in Algiers. The Algerian Dog is stunned, and stops the Tunisian Dog. After praising the clean streets, order, quiet, wealth of Tunisia, the Algerian Dog asks the Tunisian Dog why on earth he would take vacation in Algiers, which is a mess. The Tunisian Dog nods sagely, and says, "I felt like barking.")

On the thought of Iraq and civil conflict, bloodletting. I am afraid that in the end patching together a short term compromise probably is not going to avoid longer term bloodletting. I just saw Hotel Rwanda, fine film overall, and reflected on this, Iraq, Cote d'Ivoire and interventions. A thought coming away: perhaps it was better not to have intervened in Rwanda. Looking to the Lebanese experience, looking to Cote d'Ivoire, I come away with the perhaps facile sensation that once inter-communal hatred has been stirred up, the only real solution is for the communities to beat the crap out of each other until the pain gets to be so much they're ready to call it quits. In Cote d'Ivoire we can see that neither side is really ready, each thinks it can go for the gusto. The only thing the is going to convince them otherwise is a bit of nastiness.

Well, as promised poorly thought through, and superficial.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Madness.

At work I mean.

I continue to be astounded at the sheer idiocy of this organization. My assistant is out today, so I take a call from accounting (what the fuck are the doing up so early, I have no idea, accounting freaks), the 2nd officer wants to know if we can negotiate new terms on our mobile subs for the corporate officers here. It's four fucking phones. Four. Four. The Telecom Giant is not going to cut us a special deal on four fucking phones. We're not even huge users (well who knows... but at the moment we've got no record of being such). It's utter madness. A waste of my time responding to this nonsense, a waste of their time (so they don't like the sub agreements, well, tough.).

This is as bad as asking the Director here to conduct suprise inspections of petty cash, a facility of such trivial amount that the dollar XR move adjustments are generally larger than actual usage. They're mentally ill.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Bolton - on hold, down in flames?

A quick comment on this. I saw this AM in FT that Bolton's hearings are on hold. That's a good thing. Unlike say Wolfowitz nomination where I thought (and think) the Bush Administration made a small error as while Wolfowitz isn't / wasn't a bad fellow for the seat, the timing was bad, I think Bolton is the wrong guy.

As in Wolfowitz's case, it's not the ideology but the positioning that I see as the problem. Wolfowitz will get over the hurdles, and as I opined earlier, will make, despite the spluttering from the anti-globo morons, a decent World Bank President - hopefully a good back to the basics one.

Bolton, however, by all I hear from my State amigos and what I read, is a tempermental bastid who's not charming nor smooth. Fine, well enough. But if you want someone to help shake up the UN and get things going your way, better a Negroponte or a Kirkpatrick who have all the politics you want and are smooth.

Bolton isn't. Bad choice for the job. Period. Let the ideological fireworks aside, get someone who fits the bill on your basic agenda, and has the skills. Simple as that.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:49 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

April 19, 2005

What to talk about

I confess I am a bit burned out by the past month of idiocy, and not fairly inspired, other than perhaps by getting back to economic issues. Big holiday coming up this week (extra points to identifying which one), will disappear a bit although this bloody broken toe prevents any long distance travelling.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Pope

My only comment on this: finally I don't have to watch those bloody blake smoke stories. All bloody weekend.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:11 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Arabic Translation Tool

Sakhr seems to have fixed its translation tool: http://translate.sakhr.com/sakhr/default.asp?lang=1

For translation into Arabic, the other way appears to still need a subscription.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:31 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Trivial, Facile Comments on Leb Land

http://www.spiritofamerica.net/lebanonblog

In particular, "the revolution will be blogged."

I am amused by the naivete and credulity of the writer here.

Group of wealthy Beiruitis get together ..... and this is telling you what about Leb Politics?

Hint: nada. It's like basing your read of US politics off of Greenwich Village people.

As bad, the idiotic comments about Hizbullah, the utter misunderstanding of the politico-demographic shift that is behind the current issues (hint Shia are likely soon to be an absolute majority of the voting age population, but are relatively marginalized in the current "free" democratic framework).

No, this twit is on and on about freedom.

Navel-gazing as analysis.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

April 18, 2005

In trivial matters

In entertaining this weekend, some people started asserting I should be on the Apprentice show. I take it this was mockery, although all I know about this show is (i) it has something to do with Donald Trump, world's best marketeer of failed managers selecting managerial staff for something, on TV, (ii) it seems to be a series, (iii) it has Donald, I am a loathsome serial defaulter, Trump.

The question, then, is, what angle of mockery this was.

I think they were playing off my admittedly stupid, but sadly reflexive, habit of speaking about my social life as if it were business.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Clearly I have been gone too long

A class apart
By Craig Offman
Published: April 15 2005 18:25 | Last updated: April 15 2005 18:25
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/14a5a0d4-aca8-11d9-ad92-00000e2511c8.html

While this will earn me no points among my lefty readership, I have to say I find this idiocy in re 'transgender' to be ..... well idiocy. Not that I am particularly prescriptive or judgemental, being a classic live and let live liberal on all matters economic and social - free markets for idiocy as it were.

But the arch specialness of this new little fad strikes me as so bloody.... developed world idiotic navel gazing moronic bloody idiocy. And did I mention idiotic? Whatever, dress in men's clothing, etc. But the entire "identity" idiocy is just that.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:33 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Amusing reference

From comments today, I found this:
http://billmon.org/archives/001836.html
One obvious explanation for this trend is that credit has become ever so much easier for American consumers to get -- and abuse, which is why the credit industry spent the past six years lobbying Congress to bring back debt peonage. And nowhere has the industry been more inventive, or successful, than in its ability to persuade American homeowners their houses are actually giant credit cards made of brick, wood and plaster.

Emphasis added.

I was very amused by this. Brilliant turn of phrase. Amusing post overall.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

The Holy Lunch Hours

One of the most charming habits in this region is the sacredness of the holy lunch hours - which whatever official pronouncements occur, run from roughly noon to three in the afternoon. Absolutely impossible to reach anyone of any importance in an office. Everything is shut.

This includes, and I confess I continue to find this bizarre, shops. Even in the office complex - shopping mall attachment I am located in.

Now, on one hand this 3 hour break gives me plenty of time to ruminate, drink more human petrol, blunder about the office and/or aimless research things on the internet. Or internets as the case may be.

On the other, it strikes me as mind numbingly idiotic that the shops shut down during this period, with few exceptions. What is likely one of the potentially busiest shopping moments of the day, and they shut. This even includes the gift shop in the fabulous five star where we put up our incoming guests and the like. It is not a particularly well placed gift shop, but one would expect that the one time of day where it might get extra traffic is during the holy lunch hours. Guests coming back to the hotel and the like.

This aside, I remain impressed by the lemming like timing that the office workers here keep to. Everyone leaves quite promptly (or early) in the 12 to 12h30 time slot (in which time the elevators become virtually unusable because of the morons who push both up and down buttons to call the elevator, illiterate country hick idiots), troop out into the 12h30 to 1h30 mass traffic jam of all the lemmings going home to (if female) cook and eat or (if male) eat and lay about, and then in the 2h30 to 3h00 time slot, come back through another mass traffic jam.

Now, this pattern is clear to all. But does one see anyone altering their habits to avoid this chaos? Nope. For it is the holy lunch hours, and it is written.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Sadly remaining a degenerate

Afraid too much celebrating over this weekend has left me incapable of higher thought processes.

The combined end of the entire reporting fiasco, ex ridiculous edits and further massaging (mere polishing as it were) and the news that the special person (or whatever) is suffering from 'the female sickness' (and thus putting an end to one of my episodic bouts of utter paranioa that various modern medical advances had betrayed me and my scummy alter-ego me, and caused potential family things to come about) had me in fine form. Even better, without permie type accompagnement.

However, this AM, besides realizing that I have ingested far too much nasty substances over the weekend, I'm also recalling I made some promises about investing in an apartment that I think I am going to have to keep. I guess a few K into a condo here is not an inherently bad idea. Real estate, although getting a big frothy is not madly unreasonable, and the condo in question is quite stylish. Should things go south, I can hole up there, should they not, still a decent value. Of course, there are some legal niceties and the like, a bit awkward.

One of the best things about the convo on this, as I recall (quite a lot of rhum preceded - hmmmm, she's getting sharp to the idea getting engagements out of me over rhum is efficient.) is the open legal advice about what percentage of the apartment sale price should be "off the books." It appears there are open and well accepted percentages - too low and you're a sucker, too high and it's a bit too much of sharp dealing. What I liked best was the advice came from a perfectly respectable lawyer.

Else, The Washington Post has a perfectly irritating series on reform in the Arab world. One of the things that I rather detest about this subject is the sheer faddishness of all the journo writing on it. "Oooh there's reform...." Bloody idiots. Well, maybe not that bad, but the faddishness of the coverage irritates the fuck out of me.

Finally, it looks as if the conference is a go. Pending confirmations.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:41 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

The other item to note

Nancy Arjam is coming to town. I am looking forward to her further prosleytizing on Leb Slut Fashion.

This reminds me, one of the floor's best on this achieved a new high, or low, with net stockings, a mini skirt and a bustier.

Yes, this is what passes for Arab world female working fashion.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:24 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Dollar, Credit, Crash

Higher brain functions are still impaired, but a bit of quoting from The Economist is doable I think.

This week's editorial comment:
A call to action
Apr 14th 2005
From The Economist print edition

Unless politicians stop talking and start acting, the world economy is heading for trouble

“CIRCUMSTANCES seem to me as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember, and I can remember quite a lot.” That sombre assessment of the world economy came from Paul Volcker, chairman of America's Federal Reserve between 1979 and 1987, writing recently in the Washington Post. “What really concerns me”, he went on, “is that there seems to be so little willingness or capacity to do much about it.”

Coming from one of the giants of American economic policy-making, the man who vanquished the high inflation of the late 1970s and helped navigate the global economy through the 1980s debt crises, that is a pointed admonition. The finance ministers and central bankers, who gather this weekend in Washington, DC, for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, would do well to take it seriously. For beneath a veneer of resilience, the world economy is becoming increasingly fragile.

In other words, we're walking up to the edge of a serious systematic crisis and it is about bloody time to start getting serious.

I wonder if the dimwits in Washington will begin to understand.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:20 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

April 15, 2005

And away.

Entertaining this evening, but the quarterly report draft is of with all the highly sketchy numbers and claims nicely rounded up and put in dollar terms. Shall return to normal blithering on, ranting and the like next week.

Or when so moved.

I would note, in closing that I was suitably entertained by my doctor's attitude towards the broken toesies - rather like my own. I love developing world health care. None of this bloody test and test, and whimper on about peanut dust allergies.

Of course on the other hand I do have a nerve damaged finger due to this, but such is life.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Home Stretch

But I wish to signal an amusing story I heard over lunch yesterday with a US Embassy boy and some private equity people.

The Embassy boy was complaining that the regional brand director of Nike (AMENA) is harrassing him about a recent incident. As retold by the officer, Nike sponsored the local National Team, bought them uniforms, etc. The brand manager, watching the team play for the first time after sponsorship, sees them come out on the field in their brand spanking new uniforms. Nike and all that. Except.... they're not the real uniforms - the guy knows what the real ones looked like. These are counterfiet Nike uniforms. Live on TV, the team comes out with counterfiet uniforms that don't match the real ones Nike provided.

Wonderful. Word on the street is that someone on the team resold the real ones and got fakes. The why is as of yet unknown.

A thing of beauty.

The other great phrase from the convo:

"That Bank [large well known bank] isn't a bank, it's a pawn shop."

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

April 14, 2005

No Value Added, but a Question

My poor laptop, even after being subjected to multiple anti virus scans continues to show signs of issues. Any thoughts?

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

April 13, 2005

Continued lack of value to add

Other than to note the foot is fixed and the neo-Salafi blunderers got my suit back. Bless their scraggly selves.

I continue to have episodic bouts of paranioa about the fallout from certain extracurricular activities, but refuse to pose any direct questions. Best to cruise.

Otherwise, reporting due back to NY, working like a madman. Will return to normal schedule thereafter.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

April 12, 2005

Another edition of other news

First, I am glad to report after installing a new, non-Norton AV, anti-virus product I found my problemos. My life has gotten better. Now if only the connexion here would be stable.

Second, I am happy to report I broke my foot yesterday. Toes only. Little purpley but nothing fatale. The women are insisting I go to hospital but I don't see much point in that, what can one do for toes? I am quite gimpy, however.

Third, my dear local dry cleaners has lost one of my suits. Gave me the wrong one, now deny all knowledge. Bloody nightmare. I am going to try to make them cough up something, but it's really a lost cause unless the fellow who got my suit returns it. This is a cash business and they don't keep names. Bloody women again "saving" me money..... Go to the bloody expensive place for fuck's sake. Well, it wasn't one of the really expensive suits so perhaps this will motivate me to go suit shopping again. Afraid I was rather nasty to the owners, but what kind of moron tells me I have to go into their absolutely chaotic bloody pressing house to search for my own bloody suit? Especially when it's fairly clear their neo-Salafi employees with the scraggly beards fucked up and switched suits last week?

Fourth, this little story from FT warmed my heart. The question that arises though, is, given the Medievel (royal) influence of Maghrebine food on my benighted ancestors, what the bloody hell happened afterwards?
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f2f69480-a805-11d9-87a9-00000e2511c8.html

Otherwise, my foot really does hurt. Wonder if I should take some pills or something. I suppose I could go to the clinic, but it seems quite a bother for a couple of toes. Coffee is good today though, at least that's going right.

Finally, I have been invited to be part of a tender on something in the old Middle East. Trying to decide if this is a good idea or not.

Furhter thoughts, coffee remains good, but foot is getting a bit swelly. I may actually have to seek medical attention. Really remains quite painful. Stupid toes.

I should write about Iraq, but not in the mood of late.

EDIT:

Footsie has been examined. Minor breaks, no loss of toes in order. Perhaps my feet will be somewhat less classically beautiful, but what can we say? The taping up of toesies does wonder for mobility.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:56 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

April 11, 2005

Most Amusing Recent Convo

Rapping last week with two North American investment banks, convo brought to mind by today's AIG news:
The statement came up, while discussing AIG: "AIG is a criminal enterprise with an insurance wrapper."

I think that goes too far, but it was and is amusing. In a sour way, but....

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Back to the Dollar Watch and Related Imbalences

This week's Economist has a fine arty on USG paper addication with For CBs and USG addiction to cheap For. CBs money. Take a look at the chart and tell me what you feel like in terms of momentum.

You need us and we need you
Apr 6th 2005
From The Economist Global Agenda

America and foreign central banks are locked in a codependent relationship: America is addicted to spending, and the banks can’t stop throwing money at it in order to keep their currencies down. This is unhealthy for both parties, say the IMF and the World Bank. But is there any political will to change it?

The answer is no, of course.

Pity I never became a debt workout specialist.

By the way, the other item to cast an eye at is the GM debt issue and it's imminent descent to junk st