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May 2005 Archives

May 31, 2005

Time to fuck off - but a contrast on Euro versus American Diplos

And take the woman out to dinner. Somewhere moderately scummy, but nevertheless intriguing. Then pack her off on a train and out of my hair for the rest of the week.

In the meantime, I am positively aglow with the news coming out of Europe. The French and the Bruxelles crowd in disarray, blundering about like the benighted fools they are.

However, let me take this opportunity, however, to praise the Eurocrats.

First, their diplomatic service in terms of staffing is far more interesting and competent than the American staffing. You might protest that the Americans get more done, and I say, yes. That is true, but that is merely by sheer force of effort - and the fact that EU is like a three headed horse. (Not three horses, sadly, but a three-headed horse) Sure, up top policy making is a bungled jumbled mess, but their on the ground sorts have real panache.

In contrast, your average American diplo type that I meet is (i) boring, (ii) boring, (iii) boring, (iv) rather more boring, (v) painfully ill-informed and almost sure to know next to nothing about his country of posting, (vi) boring, (vii) unable to buy me alcohol because of some bizarre puritanical expense account system, (viii) boring, (ix) gullible in a tedious sort of way due to points v and vii, (x) likely to be a mormon (redundant to points i-iv, vi, vii, viii and ix), (xi) lives in near total lockdown because the US is such a weirdly risk averse country when it comes to seeing its civil servants get whacked, (xii) well-nigh useless for information, (xiii) tediously middle-class functionary sort.

This does not stop me from feeding off of them, but frankly, most American diplos might as well be in fucking Idaho for all the work they really get done.

Not their fault really. US Gov has a bizarre approach to staffing risk (which despite serial failures in terms of spying and the like continues) where the bland and riskless are sucked in (Mormons, insufferable boring people), and anyone with the slightest panache is passed over or squeezed out.

Or so it seems. Now, ex the Diplo service and the Agency, very good we might say. But your Agency and Diplo types should be... well able to at least blend into the Expat world, if nothing else.

Add to this an entirely bizarre and benighted system of staffing which as far as I can make out requires -yes requires- that Diplo Officers not spend consecutive assignements in a region (let alone a country) and has such short assignments (2-3 years) as to positively ensure they learn nothing.

One can understand to be sure the fear of going local, but this clearly goes to far.

I contrast this with the Euro Diplos I know. Largely scoundrals - rather likable for that - potentially quite corrupt - again something that warms my heart a bit, largely through the Cuban products thusly consumed - and usually in place for a good while such that they have proper networks.

Now, very seriously, in a region where networks are everything, this is a non-trivial advantage.

True enough, I have seen enough signs of EU money being pissed away in somewhat less than transparent fashions, but at least some portion was spent on me, and surely one can have something of a combination of a bit of scoundraliness (to create a word) with otherwise straight dealing.

(I note that FT has this nasty and positively delicious op ed: http://news.ft.com/cms/s/62fafcc0-d138-11d9-9c1d-00000e2511c8.html)

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Returning to low value commentary

Am a bit preoccupied at the moment, both work crises and a chica that has chosen to visit me at an awkward moment. Luckily the other one is busy with apartments. Messy, very messy.

Nevertheless, I was amused today in that she dropped by the office and observed that once I insisted on carrying a heavy bag for her, which was "quite out of your character" - I must agree it is - and "probably only because my mum was around." That may be true as well. Marketing. Marketing, and of course occasional product placement.

Otherwise, I was happy to learn that I can still be described as "fit" despite having a diet heavily weighted towards Cuban products. Of course, this might have been mere flattery.

Leaving this aside, the typical editorials appeared in the press today bemoaning the loss of France (ahem, I mean the EU) as a counterweight to the Big Cookie Monster. Very tiresome. More amusing was the absolutely bizarre reflexions on what EU failure meant for regional integration in the Med Basin. By some truly outre logic, one particular editorial writer seems to have come to the conclusion that if the EU is not providing a good example of integration, then southern Med integration will stall. Apparently the cravenly decision makers, in this editorialists' eyes, merely act by copying what the French are doing.

Sadly, having sat in on a meeting which consisted of a few of the same comparing their own org chart to that of a French counterpart and bickering over why they had slightly different reporting relationships (not by content mind you, I mean the bickering, merely over the boxes), one has the awful sensation that in the Maghreb this may very well be true.

Rather more risky, however, is a resurgence of French protectionism and more of the duplicitious, fundamentally dishonest anti-Globo Leftist moron posturing and pandering about "delocalisations" (outsourcing) of sclerotic French services hither and thither or the equally dishonest (although rhetorically brilliant) pissing about "fiscal" and "social" "dumping." A briliant set of phrases - really like "fair trade" and other quasi-Orwellian oxymoronisms to disguise the French fear of competition.

Sadly, among the items on the local agenda is an interminable debate about the stunningly stupid new labor law and the exact terms on which the work week (a la France) is being reduced, and if under the new law, it is not in fact required for salaried employees to actually get salary increases to compensate them for some supposed loss (as embodied through a ridiculously complex formula about minimum salaries and an equally nasty little provision about it being illegal for any employee to suffer any diminuation in salary tied to the diminuation of the legal work week).

This, of course, is all supposed to "create jobs." Obviously working so brilliantly in France, and of course the unions deny that there is any relationship between massive evasion of the labor codes frankly surreal terms and the lack of employment growth. Nope, zero, none, nada.

Regardless, in closing, I was deeply amused by Hemlocke's little missive on the EU (http://www.geocities.com/hkhemlock/rooster/diary-28may05.html), as well as his ranting about the structure of services. Insofar as I have to write a "lettre de motivation" to "justify" a simple fucking request for price quotes on acquiring some cheap fucking IT equipment (no, simply ringing up the under employed lazy fuck of a sales agent is simply not done), I concur.

Someday, France may enter the 20th century.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

De Villepin

Interesting. Very interesting.

What has been more amusing (although only in a sour way) has been the French Left's shrieking on about "social dumping" and "fiscal dumping" within Europe.

It's rather clear France has yet to shed its overweening Napoleonic desire to impose itself on Europe.

Meanwhile, here the event has been met with bemusement. I suppose the real issue the worry this may unsettle the markets over the next several months. It surely will, of course, but I doubt serious flow disruptions.

Have to see what happens when the Dutch add to the No and whether the ham-fisted fools in Bruxelles understand they can't simply berate the electorates.

In the meantime, Italian bonds are looking weaker. Italy is in for a bad time.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

May 30, 2005

Odd.

Quite a bit of heavy military air traffic over the neighborhood. Very unusual that (which is to say, never before seen). Well, hope no one has gone and done something unpleasant or silly.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Well, not just no, a crushing no.

No reason to recap, plenty of places for that, but a massive turnout and a good crushing ten percent margin, despite universal political elite support is fairly convincing.

Sadly the leftist nitwits are spinning this as an anti-liberal thing, which in some part it was, but want to ride the "social Europe" (read sclerotic dysfunctional economic model) into the sunset. Sunset in this case being a terminally declining Europe.

Regardless, the train has stopped and there is now a chance that reflection rather than blind full speed aheadness will have a moment. For the Europeans whinging on about Europe being set back ten years, I say this "Europe was just spared a nasty derailment."

A pause for digestion in a long term project is not, let me repeat, not a disaster, it is wisdom.

Prattling on about no plan b and rerunning referendums until the right result is had is disaster.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

May 27, 2005

Egyptian Liberals - Arab Liberals

In his fine blog Pratike asks:
http://www.liberalsagainstterrorism.com/drupal/?q=taxonomy/term/61
"So here's a case where the public sector is obviously far too large and powerful; the NDP is kind of like a nationwide political machine that dispenses patronage in exchange for power. And yet there's little discernable "small government" movement in the country. Why don't more folks make the connection?"

Because there is zero political tradition of the same is the easy answer. Political liberalism in its classic sense is virtually non-existant in the Arab world. I'm seeing some glimmerings in the Maghreb (where it has to be a hardy plant to fight off the French influence) and a bit in Jordan, but the popular reflex is to look to a nanny state model.

Let me share an anectdote from when I lived in Cairo.

One evening coming from a party in Zamaalek and heading off to Maadi where I lived, I struck up a conversation with the taxi driver, a garralous older sort. I was curious as to his background as he spoke excellent and refined Arabic - we spoke in high register dialect / low register modern standard - and after the usual banter, hit upon business. He in fact was an industrial engineer. Chemical engineer in fact. Trained in Egypt, of the 1960s generation (i.e. flowering of the Nasserist period). Now I was puzzled, since he indicated he had a fine job as an engineer as Revolution Whatever Plant, and here he was driving taxi as well in the evening. Recall while I followed the two day weekend, his job did not. He indicated he needed the extra money for his family - although he had a fine and well placed job in state industry. Well, that really puzzled me - my sensation was he was the competent type, in fact the idea went through my head I knew people in the private sector that might want an experience chemical engineer who clearly seemed to be hard working (two jobs, bloody hell) family man of some deep education. So I asked him right out, why was he working in the public sector - noting I was a man of the private sector (usually enough to get younger people with no qualifications at all to inquire after a job, even as a driver).

Oh no. Not the least bit interesting to him, not at all. Too uncertain. Too insecure. No, my neat as a pin, apparently hard working driver-industrial chemical engineer prefered the saftey of the government job, its apparent permanent security, its saftey and dirt pay which obliged him to drive cab at night to make ends meet to the private sector. Nevermind such an engineer might make ten times his public sector pay (or so, of course I am not sure my read of him was right).

Not in any way atypical, this conversation, although we did get more profoundly into things than normal. This was, hmmm, six years ago now?

The same thing is seen in the Maghreb. University graduates going on strike to protest in hopes of getting government jobs.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:11 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Demos - local anti Gauntanomo and the Euro (updated)

I am pleased that the authorities have contacted me to ask me to try not to get beaten up during this weekend's exciting anti-Gauntanomo demostrations, organized by our friendly neo-Islamist parties.

It is always a pleasure to know my personal well being is on their minds, as well as their usual paranoia that the expatriates might get a stubbed toe.

It is also encouraging, actually, that the authorities are allowing this to go forward, let everyone blow off a little steam and express their right and proper disgust with the whole affaire.

Of course, all other sorts of silliness will be mixed in as well, but no matter.

However, I for one will skip the fun for some of my usual decadence and scumminess, have to log it in before the wave of Khaliji scum take over the seamy side of things and unbalance supply and demand.

I also note I am insufferably pleased with myself that the timing of my transfer of capital for my new found ownership of real property -with that magnificent terrace just designed for maxizing the pleasure one can derive from consuming cuban products- will come right after the Dutch and French votes. I can take pleasure in a problem maximization of my dollar to local currency conversion such that even the insufferable haircut from the evil Bureau of Exchange Controls (rent seeking scum) will be barely noticeable as EuroZone goes through tumult and chaos to my greater profit.

Why it makes me so happy I could almost dance a little salsa, if my bloody toes were fully healed. Only the speculative report attaching blindness to viagra usage approaches making me this happy.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:04 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Chagrin.

I was annoyed earlier when one of our diminishing pool of suckers (I mean clients of course, the joy in Arabic is one of the words means both) asked us to provide them with a synopsis of the technical document in their lingo, one that we handed over to them in English about 2 months ago. I had thought, the cheap lazy fucks are making tons of money off of the interest rate spreads, they can afford to translate the bloody thing.

Having spent the morning on the thing, I am now left with a sense of doom. It's not really the Bank's fault. Frankly our man wrote a set of incomprehensible trash. There's really only two choices, make up a synopsis that is anything but, or get screwed.

At least they were apparently fooled by the jargon into thinking there was content or that the document might actually make sense.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:25 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Egypt

Well, I have neglected to say anything about Egypt. Rather busy actually, have not even had the time to entertain with a tale of regulation, concerts and scantily clad muhajabat that I wish to share.

Certainly Abu Aardvark had some fine notes, and since I generally loathe and despise Egypt (remaining literally scarred for life after working there - the spider finger and all that) I am not particularly moved overall.

Regardless a note, the interventions of Madame Bush and US Gov to date have been puerile. Rather clearly Mubarek has correctly calculated that aside from some "we don't approve of you too visibly beating up the opposition, above all on TV" language, he can readily use the stability argument to power on through.

Well, no surprise there. None at all.

Does put all the breathless "Democratic Spring" in the Middle East whanking in perspective.

But I am sure my old pal Mr. Stone would have interesting spin on that.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

May 26, 2005

How Not To Set Up A Super State: the EU bis

Référendum: une "stupidité de dire qu'on va demander aux Français de recommencer" pour Henri Emmanuelli
http://fr.news.yahoo.com/050526/5/4fp1i.html
"J'ai envie de leur dire mais 'Pour qui vous prenez-vous? Savez-vous ce qu'est le suffrage universel et allez-vous admettre une bonne fois pour toutes que la souveraineté appartient au peuple et pas aux technostructures libérales associées à l'Europe des actionnaires?", a poursuivi le député des Landes"

For the non-francophone, a quick translation:
"I'd like to say to them [Luxembourg's PM and the head of the EU Commission], "Who do you take yourselves for? Do you know what universal sufferage is, and will you admit in good faith for once that sovereignty is held by the people and not by the liberal [read free market oriented] technostructures associated with a Europe made up of partners?"

While I can't really sympathize with his stupid Leftist anti-liberal rhetoric (and it is highly ironic for the French elite to posture about sovereignty residing with the people and not the technocrats), but , well this is really a home run.

Most recent posturing by the EU eurocrats, the pro-Yes elites has the stink of contempt for a real democratic process. No plan B, Take It or Leave It, You're retrograde scum if you vote it down.

Nothing really positive.

The constitution, I predict now, is going down in flames. As it long deserved.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

May 25, 2005

Reality TV: Middle East Broadcasting Style

An interesting item I got today:

MBC TV is offering you the chance to start your dream business in a new reality show
'The Investors' is a reality based TV Show built around family business. MBC is offering 2 relatives the opportunity to compete against other families for their chance to win up to $500,000 of Initial investment in their dream project.

To qualify, the two family members must:
Be between 21, and 40 years old
Have a business plan and preliminary study
Have a proven track record of achievement in either business, marketing, PR, sales or an area related to the business plan
Be ready to relocate for 9 weeks from the end of June
Do you think your family has got what it takes to win?
Email us:

The CV of both family members
Photo of each family member
The business plan or preliminary study
Email address: investors@mbc.ae
For more information call +971 4391 9782
Deadline for all applications is June 10th 2005

Most interesting is the structure.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:58 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Management Issues

Beautiful column that I missed but wish to draw attention to:

Dumbing up of management thinking
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/a98a6ed6-cad6-11d9-9abe-00000e2511c8.html
"As we never know what we are supposed to be eating or drinking, the only sensible course of action is to take no notice. If you don’t eat or drink excessively, if you aren’t entirely sedentary and (most importantly) if you are reasonably happy, then you should probably leave well alone. The same is true for management issues. The only sensible course of action is to ignore all the research and do whatever seems like a good idea anyway."

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:24 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

EU - Euro and dangers. Wolf, FT

A timely and interesting article from my favorite bar none commentator, Martin Wolf.

My excuse for commenting on EU is quite simply the sitting here on the other side of the Med from the EU, we have to be deeply concerned about what that sick giant of an economy is going to do.

Martin Wolf: Italy's predicament exposes eurozone
By Martin Wolf
Published: May 24 2005 20:24 | Last updated: May 24 2005 20:24
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/21f25198-cc82-11d9-bb87-00000e2511c8.html

Let us think the unthinkable: could the eurozone disintegrate? The answer is yes. Disappearance of the zone as a whole seems hugely unlikely, so long as the commitment to the European project survives. But the exit of one (or more) members, a sovereign default or both is not at all inconceivable.

Warms Pantom's heart perhaps, but looking into his argument I think Wolf's thinking is close to mine.

Yet those all-powerful watchdogs, the bond markets, apparently disagree. Interest rate spreads within the eurozone are tiny (see chart). Investors apparently consider the debt of the eurozone governments as close to perfect substitutes. This is astonishing: after all, ratios of government debt to gross domestic product at the end of last year varied from Luxembourg's 5 per cent and Ireland's 29 per cent to Italy's 105 per cent and Greece's 112 per cent (on the Maastricht treaty definition). Investors must not only believe that the currency union is impregnable but that each sovereign borrower is as good as the other. The latter belief assumes that all the fiscal authorities will behave in an equally responsible manner or that there is an implicit bail-out. These assumptions are highly implausible.

Absolutely agreed. Thinking Greece and Italy have anything approaching responsible government is madness.

A number of economists argue that the European Central Bank is distorting the market by treating all eurozone sovereign liabilities as equally riskless. Even if the ECB does this only at the short end, the knowledge that it does so will affect the entire yield curve. The solution, suggest Willem Buiter of the London School of Economics and Ann Sibert of Birkbeck, in an unpublished note, is for the ECB to accept government debt as collateral only at market-determined discounts.

But can you imagine the political howling in the EU if they did so?

Now, getting on to his Italy discussion, I'd like to highlight something for thought. Italy's underlying economic problems are very.... similar I would say to the problems of the southern Med.

Whether this idea would make a big difference to prices in the market is unknowable. What is knowable, however, is that it makes little sense for anyone to treat the debt of all eurozone members as equivalent. Because of its size and status as a founder member of the European Union, Italy's predicament is the most significant. It is also highly revealing. What has happened since entry, as I noted last week ("A more dynamic eurozone is a necessity", May 17 2005), is the precise opposite of what was needed: declining productivity performance, deteriorating competitiveness, faltering growth and weakening fiscal discipline.

In its latest survey of Italy, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development remarks: "It is somewhat ironic that Emu membership, by allowing sharply lower interest and exchange rates may, in effect, have relaxed the perceived need for structural adjustments on both supply and fiscal sides." It may be ironic, but it is also human - and potentially calamitous.

The scissors cutting Italy's economic lifeline have two blades: productivity and fiscal fragility.

Chart

Start with the productivity blade. Since 1995, Italy's output per hour has deteriorated by about 5 per cent against the eurozone average. This is the result of a decline in total factor productivity rather than of a (highly desirable) substitution of labour for capital (see chart). As a result, external competitiveness and potential growth have both slowed: relative to Germany, Italy's real effective exchange rate has appreciated by almost one-fifth since 1999; and potential rate of growth is now estimated at only 1.3 per cent a year.

Now consider the fiscal blade. In its most recent Economic Outlook, the OECD notes that the cyclically adjusted primary fiscal balance (the balance before interest payments) has collapsed from a surplus of 5 per cent of gross domestic product in 1998 to a forecast surplus of only 1 per cent this year (see chart). The OECD also forecasts the general government fiscal deficit, before the customary special measures, at 4.5 per cent this year and 5.1 per cent in 2006.

In order to regain lost external competitiveness, Italy must have substantially lower inflation in the costs of tradeable goods and services than elsewhere in the eurozone. Given the dreadful productivity performance, that would demand next to no increase in nominal wages over an extended period, which would also mean relatively high real interest rates. This combination would ensure even lower actual growth than Italy's already low potential rate. But that would further undermine the fiscal position. Unfortunately, efforts to shift the fiscal position back to balance would weaken the economy still more, since there are no monetary or exchange-rate offsets to such fiscal tightening.

Chart

If you think you have seen a case a bit like this, you are right: it is called Argentina. Bernard Connolly, a notorious opponent of the monetary union, even argues that the debt ratio will explode upwards, given the low inflation Italy needs and the declining potential rate of growth that Italy also has. Together, these will generate very low growth in nominal GDP (which is the denominator in the debt ratio).* He also believes that Italy has a structural primary fiscal deficit of 1 per cent of GDP. Under his assumptions, the debt ratio would rise towards 170 per cent of GDP over 20 years even if there were no rise in interest rate spreads. A fiscal (and financial crisis) would loom.

I will leave the rest for readers to ferret out, but an article well worth the read.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Arab Media, al-Jazeerah, a pithy comment

"Al-Haj Ali shows the Arab state in all of its red-faced fury... looking like a buffoon in the face of a reasonable, articulate critic... that's what al-Jazeera lets Arab viewers see."

From Abu Aardvark. In my experience this is precisely correct.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

May 24, 2005

Junk, Junk, Baby.

Like Ice, Ice.

Or shall we say, Fitch, one more pebble on the scree of the credit mountain. Rolling?

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Nancy Ajram The Moroccan link for the Aardvarks

End of the day, the electronic version has gone up, I share then this:
http://www.leconomiste.com/upload/pdf_une/pdf_une_kiosque5.pdf

PDF, so you can get the front pager.

and this:
http://www.leconomiste.com/article.html?a=63114

Where you can learn that our Islamist friends were all wet, what the Wali was really thinking was in these terms:
"Ce n’était certainement pas une bonne idée d’organiser ce concert sur la place Jamaâ El Fna et ce fut le discours des autorités au lendemain de cet évènement."

One has to confess, if one knows Jama l-Fnaa, that a free mega concert by Nancy could be a bit of a dicey proposition.

What most intrigued me is that the ongoing legal war between Maroc Telecom and Meditel did not escalate to a complaint by MT in re Meditel use of Nancy. Now that would make for interesting hearing at the HCAM.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

For the Abu Aardvark Fans

Those following the Nancy Ajram saga, I note that today's Moroccan business daily has a full page spread on Nancy entitled (trans.): "The Nancy Ajram Phenomena."

This will be online tomorrow.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:26 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

On Hedging.

A short, random comment merely to calm myself before I go and meet some infuriating potential clients who I loathe. However, as I continue to pointlessly bail water out of this Titanic of a company, must try for the clients. On that thought, I am presently angling for business with one of the basket case State Banks, who I am counting on to be just gullible and ignorant enough to sign on.

Returning then to the ostensible subject, on hedging.

This comes in response to a comment a few days, or perhaps weeks, no matter, back, in response to my whinging on about my dollar exposure in a Euro dominated environment.

The response was why I didn't just hedge. (For the uninitiated, hedging is a financial operation involving buying or selling financial contracts giving the right or obligation to acquire (or sell) a specific asset at some time (sometimes specific, sometimes w/in a range) time in the future at a specific price.)

Essentially insurance (in theory) against price movements. Well, on the buyer's side, on the seller it is likely speculation.

The answer really is in the problem of hedging on real operations. First, of course there is the issue of cost. There is a price for buying a future or an options contract. That little wedge has to be figured into whether it makes sense to hedge.

The question becomes at what level does one hedge and for how long out? And of course what is the gain versus the cost.

Let me take a regional MENA actor's example that may illustrate why "hedging" is not as smart as it may appear at times. I won't identify either firm or amounts, as the operation was fairly well known in informed circles and I shouldn't wish to blow either my cool or anyone else's.

So, in brief, Big Ass Physical Product Producter (BAPPP), a private actor, decided that it should start hedging the dollar value of its Main Product, and that out to a year. It projected its production out for the year, hedged 100 percent of production in London, and locked in a fairly favorable price, and then locked in that price in their desired currency. Sold physical product forward, and hedged the resulting currency flow into their target currency. Bingo.

Super you say? Well. No. First, they hedged 100 percent of forcast production, then they hedged the resulting cash flow more or less 100 percent. Problem, of course, is this left zero room for error.

Error happened. As it turned out some "production difficulties" occured which resulted in a non-trivial short fall and a non-trivial difference between required delivery and what they had. Worse, prices were good, so they had to buy on the spot market to fill in, plus the currency moved the wrong way.

Double or triple whammy.

Made a big ass hole in their balance sheet, very upsetting to shareholders - esp as the shareholders are regional and not too taken in with these new fangled Western devices.

Well, that was none too clear but I have to fuck off. Beat me up later for my sketchy descrip.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:23 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Bloody hell

I open one of the local rags today and find an arty on something I've done, but with some completely ... disastrous spin. I fucking hate journos. I really do, slimey semi-literate scum that they are (with exceptions of course). Then I get a call from Embassy, my amigo. It appears that the spin on my ... well, it's upset people.

Fuck em. Useless assholes have no fucking clue what's going on in country or in region, sit on their useless asses sending moronic reports to home. Probably won't get invited to any more events though. Trying to decide if I care. There is the free alcohol, which is to be regretted, but the French are far better. Maybe I can take 14 July off.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:04 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

May 23, 2005

Here's to the Non Vote

The polls out of Europe have me in a fairly cheery mood (although this damned throbbing pain in my side is distinctly annoying and making me snappish).

First, Non looks good in France, although the blunders in charge of Oui might just pull it out (and of course we know in that pseudo-democracy in France that if the French political elite don't like the results, they will rerun it, but with more scare tactics).

Second, the Dutch No looks assured. Very happy on that account. We can take the United Kingdom's sensibleness on this as a done deal.

It rather looks like the sneering "There is no Plan B" of the rude and corrupt fools in Bruxelles is backfiring.

However, I would like to point you to a fine arty in The Guardian which despite it's Leftish leanings, gets things right quite often.

Hard to swallow eurofizz is a failing brand
Larry Elliott
Monday May 23, 2005
The Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1490023,00.html

Some key paragraphss:
One sign of success, certainly, is that more countries want to join. Nevertheless, it is considered bad form to state the blindingly obvious; that Europe exhibits more signs of failure than of success.

Indeed, as I linked to an FT article last week or before, there are dangerous signs that even the basics, the common market, are not working well. Bloody hell if the French are excercising their primative mercantile instincts against fellow EU members in the core single market heart of the EU, and worse yet, the bumbling Italians as well who so badly need some foreign expertise that it's positively painful, how the bloody fuck does anyone think the fucking politics are going to bloody work. It's painful magical thinking on the part of the Eurocrats and Muddled Neo Napoleonic Dreamers in Paris that if they just throttle the EU train up to max speed, the bent rails will just slide on by.

Stop and fix the fucking rails you stupid gits. Get the basics right, then move on.

As an aside, I note I care about this especially since an EU derailment (which I think is what that mess of a contitution is, it locks them in on the wrong track) is killer for my region's economic growth potential.

Moving on:
First, there is the constitution itself. Nobody is quite sure whether the new blueprint is an Anglo-Saxon Trojan horse or a device to enshrine high taxes and inflexibility across the continent. The lack of clarity suggests a dearth of vision and a surfeit of fudge.

Bingo.

Bingo.

Bingo.

Actually I rather opt for the later since one can be sure the clauses that would serve as a Trojan Horse for a proper liberal economy and the like will be bogged down in inflexible interpretations and various maneuvers (rather like the present), and those that expand inflexibility and the like in the name of fake "solidarity" (i.e. lock in our privs now and fuck the newcomers) are sure to expand.

Second, there is a reality gap between what people want, hope and expect Europe to deliver and what it is actually delivering. The acid test of social democracy is unemployment, because if you are out of work you are far more likely to be poor and marginalised. In the 1960s, unemployment in France and Germany was around 2% - half the US's.

Indeed. One has to think about this when the French Left (and much of the deluded neo-imperialist center right) ramble on about Solidarity. Faux solidarity to lock in elite (whether labor elite or political elite) privs, and fuck the immigrants and the native born non-white underclasses.

Today in the eurozone's two biggest economies it is above 10%, while America's unemployment rate is little changed. High and persistent levels of joblessness have proved fertile breeding grounds for the extreme right: fascism is now more evident in Europe than at any time since the second world war.

And anti-'native born' reaction among the immigrants or those of non-white euro origin.

As for the argument that Europe will be a cuddlier, gentler superpower, that doesn't appear to be the message from the one area where Brussels does punch at the same weight as Washington - trade. Despite all the pro-development rhetoric, Europe has the same self-interested, mercantilist view of the world as does the US.

Indeed, the EU Euro-Med agreements are stunning bits of hypocrisy, full of fine language about solidarity and other such typically French universalist rotted posturing without real follow through, but also full up with discriminatory access and non-tariff barriers on those "sensitive" areas where, surprise, surprise the EU (esp... France and Italy) are most vulnerable to genuine competition from the southern Med.

Posturing hypocrites, who should be beaten with iron rods when they blither on about the evils of the Washington Consensus. At least the US, for all of its hypocrisy, negotiates rather more realistic trade agreements. Although the CAFTA one ... well one word: sugar. Has a positively EU air around it this one.

Third, there's the hard evidence of Europe's recent past. The sequence goes something like this. Originally, there was a free-trade area, but that was not exciting enough a project. So, the idea for a single market was born. Once this was up and running (after a fashion because it is still not actually completed), it was decided that Europe needed a single currency to make the single market work.

Indeed even the original is unfinished business.

Now that Europe has a single currency, it needs greater political integration to make the euro work. This is very much the Gosplan approach to life; a group of central planners get together and decide what should happen. The comparison with the Soviet Union is not idle; at each stage of this process, the European Union has grown more slowly. The US has shown it a clean pair of heels in every year bar one since 1991.

What can I say, I have nothing to add to this but "Hear Hear"

Comparisons with the birth of the dollar are interesting. It took more than a century for the dollar to emerge as the single currency for the United States; in the 19th century states and banks were free to issue their own notes. The dollar emerged through an organic, biological process, not because a group of politicians decreed that it should be so. Those who warned about imposing the euro on economies that were not ready for it are now being proved right, because real signs of strain are starting to emerge.

Indeed, although I do think the Euro can work out.

Slow growth and high unemployment mean that public spending is under pressure. Germany is the most often cited case of the dangers of a one-size-fits-all policy, but actually Italy is the country with the biggest problems. It is not just that the country is technically in recession following two quarters of falling output, but that its higher costs and lower productivity mean its businesses are becoming less and less competitive. Italy badly needs a devaluation of its currency but that is an option no longer available to it.

See this week's The Economist for its arty on "The Sick Man of Europe." Most definately indeed Italy.

The single currency is Europe's New Coke; it's a failing brand. Unlike the Coca-Cola corporation, however, the pretence is that all is well and that no policy response is needed. Does this mean that the collapse of the European Union is inevitable? Not at all: nothing is inevitable. What is clear, however, is that the danger signs are flashing red. Some pro-Europeans have seen this coming for some time. Caroline Lucas, one of the UK's green MPs has constantly warned of the dangers of building from the top down rather than from the bottom up.

Bingo. Danger signs are flashing but the EU elite keep insisting this ridiculous piece of garbage is "the only path." Pure blind arrogance.

PS
The Lounsbury Read is:

Snap up Euro Assets during the stupid post no panic. EU is not crumbling, the slap in the face will have a salutory effect and the value will rebound. The silly arties in The Financial Times conveying asset manager unease and a faint hint of "oh fuck" are a perfect sign.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:02 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Various trivialities

First, I appear to have kidney stones. This is very unpleasant, but I have to confess given my habit of drinking vast quantities of coffee and probable constant state of dehydration, nothing that should be surprising. Better start watching my health, getting to be an old man after all. Ha. Have to look to hydration. [edit to add: I have to note that the women are all insisting that I go see a proper medical doctor about this. Rather like the broken foot incident (which has healed admirably except I can't move the toes anymore. Just bloody toes though.). In regards to the pain and all that, my personal rule is suffer for one week, see if it goes away. Hate doctors any way, always asking probing questions I don't particularly feel like answering, and so bloody disapproving hear if I answer honestly. UPDATE II: Amusingly have caved to the pressure I went to a doctor who ran all kinds of fun tests. Rather looks to be a minor if discomforting affaire, but better, complimented me on the health of my liver. Ha.]

Second, will be sparse again. Working on several proposals, one of which an exit strategy. Said to look good on the side of the US investors and 50 million is already lined up on the other side. We shall see. Maybe Mr. Get Kicked Out of His House didn't fuck things up so badly after all.

Third, a quick note on the World Economic Forum conference in Amman, Jordan. Actually only one phrase.

"The usual motherfucking useless posturing by the usual motherfucking media hog morons, gullible Western twits and corrupt players."

Why do I regard the WEF conference with such contempt? Because I know some of the main actors that get invited. The sort about which I say "Just because they speak good English doesn't mean you should trust them."

Case in point from my old Fund, the MD and his son were always invited (have no idea if that was the case this year); and they talked the talk. This is the same pair that corruptly ripped off US and other investors of a good and cool 50 million USD in hard capital, about whom I went nutso as you can tell in my early journal pages. But they were feature guests and invitees.

These conferences are, to be frank, useless wastes of time for empty posturing and grandstanding. I'm all for useful conferences focused on real practical issues, but these sweeping piece of filth do nothing but allow the corruptly connected to posture and often make connexions with the gullible "just came to town" twits ready to lap up the same old same old because they have no fucking background. See Liz Cheney, twit in chief. (Or else make idiotic posturing noises in re women and blah blah - repeating the same old Development Retards just so stories).

Otherwise, I was relatively recently amused to find a livejournal forum on Morocco that seemed to consist almost entirely of Western and especially American chicas that having once gotten shagged in Morocco by some or another skethcy Maghrebine lover, have fallen entirely and uncritically in love with the place. Amusing in its own way, although it does puzzle me about young chicas that come to a country to get fucked and fall so syruply and uncritically in love with a country. If only they knew what their boyfriends call them behind their backs (hanging out with young lads back in the day, I can attest it was rarely respectful nor complimentary. Gullibility. Shall never understand this particular form of it.

Finally, I received an amusing, for me if not its author, email from a friend, sent as a rant to his Lebanese partner who is two years in arrears. He copied me and followed up with a note that he had tried to make it as insulting as possible, especially to Muslims.

I have to say that it did not strike me as a particularly wise move - certainly it was fairly insulting, but on the other hand two years of arrears rather does suggest a typical Leb rip-off move. On the other hand, my amigo always knew that he'd get shafted at some point. I guess I would be upset too, but on the other hand... well, I mean really this should have been priced in. No sense getting this bent out of shape over all too typical practices in Leb Land.

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Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

May 20, 2005

A comment: Arab Investment

Wasting time in between meetings, and properly shagged out, I visited blogs and noted this:
http://www.liberalsagainstterrorism.com/drupal/?q=node/1191

A few quick comments.

First, the idiocy of USG speech on "BMENA" an ugly and idiotic acronym for USG's latest nonsensical "regional policy" (meaning ignorant ill-informed bumbling moronic half baked pie in the sky policy ideas) for "Broader Middle East and North Africa" or as one local USG official likes to call it "Bangladesh to Marrakech." Well, this is idiocy irritates me.

Then to the points:
· Increased legal and regulatory transparency, and greater government and business accountability;

Fine, good thing.

· Strengthening the rule of law, especially protection of property, enforcement of judgments, and bankruptcy procedures;

Desperately needed. Bloody fucking hard to pull off, however.

· Strengthening the financial sector through privatization, competition and better regulation;
Well, other than the better regulation... okay I'll go for better regulation, it's such a meaningless phrase.

· Revitalizing the strong pace of privatization of state-owned enterprises that has slowed in recent years; and
Super, absolutely agreed.

· Focusing on creating an attractive investment climate overall - not on providing special incentives to individual projects.
Now that is a good obs. Not original one has to confess, but needs to be hammered home insofar as the regional bumblers love the big special projects. Sexy, makes news.

This, however, is pure USG and Development Retards posturing:
With the dynamic culture of entrepreneurship that thrives in the BMENA region, there is no reason that reforms would not lead to much higher investment levels.

You have already read my sour comments on this mirage, this ... what is the word for it... gratitious self deception that USG and the Devalopment Retards practice on themselves in regards to a "dynamic culture of entrepreneurship" which most certainly DOESN'T MOTHERFUCKING THRIVE IN THIS BENIGHTED LAND OF CAPRICIOUS RENT SEEKING RISK AVOIDING TIJAARI SIT IN THEIR FUCKING SHOP AND WAIT FOR BUSINESS, LOOK AT THE NEAR TIME HORIZON RISK culture.

Oh and for the bloody commentators chez Pratike, lui compris, the governments here bloody well do need to be hollowed out. "Better government" is pie in the sky self deluded tripe given the entrenched habits and the like. Break the rentier enforcers allies backs I say. At the least we might see the utter waste of tax paying citizens payments be reduced a mite.

Otherwise, in regards to the comment re American based multinationals "swooping in" - what I often say to locals in the region "If only you had your fucking act together enough where this was remotely even a possibility or a real threat, then this khayali nonsense might make sense, and indeed would be a great problem to have." It's outlandishly stupid anti-Globo morons khayali idiocy to think internationals are going to scoop up anything all that important in the region, or even that they have any substantive effect on the economies. Bloody well the contrary actually. Given the risks, investment is minimal, as FDI flows clearly show. Stupid economic 19th century mercantilist illitarcy of the first order.

Of course there is a real problem of making liberalization work internally and not just for well-placed clans, but then the well-placed clans generally profit best from having regulatory capture - despite the wide idea Development Retards and Leftist Self Deluders bright eyed innocence in regards to somehow magically 'transforming' the way government is actually done.

Realism, my dears, realism will get you somewhere, not theoretical idealised scenario whanking.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:18 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Out still but a tidbit

I am still out of office, but this tidbit from Abu Aardvaark (now unmasked as an academic specialist in media, explaining his time for such things) is interesting:
Excerpt from an interview in one of the leading regional dailies, ash-Sharq al-Awsat (The Middle East), with al-Arabiya's director, Abderahmane ar-Rashed.
http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2005/05/rashed_intervie.html
"Rashed criticized the American dealings with the Arab media, which he describes as indiscriminate and full of misunderstandings and reliance on incorrect messages, and also had this to say: "The main problem the Americans have in the region is that they don't know the Arabic language, so they confuse people and places and even policies and make fatal mistakes for themselves and for the people of the region... [and] have made big mistakes in Iraq because of this ignorance."

Quite true, really. Maybe not "the main problem" but certainly a serious problem.

Non-trivial really given the number of people who get their MENA news from the intel-op that is MEMRI and its nasty little spin (see the bit on al-Jazeerah in Abu Aardvark where MEMRI claims Jazeerah did not report on an item it ... actually reported a day before MEMRI's claim.)

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:11 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

May 19, 2005

Kicking

Absolutely kicking day, I think we did a great deal today, but of course bringing all to fruition is going to be tough. Another biz din now, I shall slime up to one of the leading asset managers of the region.

Was at event, I think someone took me pic, very unhappy about that. Next time will slump down are make faces. Thankfully more important people were at table, I expect their pics will be the ones retained.

Else, met President of regional exchange today. Important fellow. Bad teeth. Odd they appointed someone with such bad teeth.

Eh well, much to do, and have to fuck off now. Looking forward to a return to home base on Sat.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:45 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Amused.

I hear from my office that our HP dealer sold us a lot of contrabande HP ink cartridges. Not even particularly good ones at that. I am amused. Official licensed dealer trying to foist off contrabande / pirated (I mean fake) print cartridges. Got a good spread on them, motherfucker. Well, hopefully this will not require legal action.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:30 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

May 17, 2005

US Dollar Policy, aka short sighted nitwits in charge

I read today in the FT that the US has given a "deadline" to China to revalue its currency or.... what? Pout? Find bizarre ways to cut off nose to spite face? Or perhaps experiment in ways to prevent China from buying US Treasuries - show the PRC bastards what the US is made of.

Actually Snow's statement smells like weaseling:
Mr Snow said: “Unfortunately, the debate on China’s currency regime is clouded by a number of misconceptions of US policy...First, we are not calling for an immediate full float with fully liberalised capital markets. This would be a mistake at this time – China’s banking sector is not prepared. What we are calling for is an intermediate step that reflects underlying market conditions and allows for a smooth transition – when appropriate – to a full float.”

Staving off truly moronic moves from the short sighted, ignoramuses in the US Congress?

US policy is in the hands of nitwits. I wouldn't much care except my bloody salary is in dollars. Motherfuckers.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Entertaining and reflecting - MENA, Dev; US Reach and Stupid Laws

Still out fucking around trying to pretend the grinding, wrenching noise of the iceberg ripping open this ship's guts is not echoing in my head ( I sleep so well. Wonder what bonuses are going to be like... hahhaha. Bonuses. Fuckers. I hate them, I think I am going to write in my dumb fuck review that my best accomplishment was not engaging in so much cannabilism.)

This aside, the question arises tonight - is tonight's dinner legal? Is is a "gift" and further that, if I put the Cuban economic contribution on a side tab as... well, I will get creative ... does that make me amoral or immoral? Can't quite decide.

Further, it gives me the opportunity to reflect on an FT arty yesterday or was it the Economist? Well, no matter, it was about the USG's increasing reach overseas in pursuit of foreigners in re violations (claimed) of its laws, by people who never set foot in country. Despicable and will rebound on USG head. Wait for the squeeling like stuck pigs when the reverse happens one day. This sort of thing positively enrages me, that and all the fucking time spent reporting useless nonsense.

Finally, I note I now officially own real estate in this country. A point of horror as it dawns on me that I am bought into the other part of the package. Pity the no Shia customs are legal here, or that they passed that fucking divorce law.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:51 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

May 16, 2005

en deplacement

As we say. Out of the office. Silent for a while. But I read from Cental another senior officer has resigned, effective in 2 weeks. The decks are positively awash in blood now. We're not AIG yet, but....

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

May 13, 2005

Arab Sat TV Market, Media Review: I am an illiterate moron who needs remedial reading skill assist.

Ahem.

Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa.

In fact there is a discussion of the Arab Sat market:
The Rise and Potential Fall
of Pan-Arab Satellite TV
http://www.tbsjournal.com/fakhrads.html

To Pay or not to Pay? Free Western Entertainment Channels Seek Pay Package Audiences
http://www.tbsjournal.com/khalil.html

A quick review both seem interesting. I will comment soon. In the meantime, again, I am an illiterate moron for missing these.

However, I still remain morally superior to MEMRI.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

May 12, 2005

Italy: A Stinging Rebuke on the ABN shenanigans

Somewhat far afield for me, but something I have been following closely in regards to what the Commissioner properly frames as the question of whether the EU is going to be a market or a vast bureaucracy with internally squabling fiefdoms and non-tariff barriers:

(will edit down later

Europe must embrace market forces
By Charlie McCreevy
Published: May 11 2005 20:23 | Last updated: May 11 2005 20:23

There is a whiff of unreality in the air in many member states of the European Union. Facing ever lower growth forecasts, some even blame competition for their troubles.

In a sense they are right, but for the wrong reasons. It is the lack of competitive pressures that lies behind so many of the ills Europe faces today. A competitive financial services sector is an essential ingredient in supporting economic stability and growth. In spite of the progress made in integrating financial markets in the EU, there are still obstacles that prohibit competition. This is most obvious in the retail banking sector. Very little cross-border merger activity has taken place. We are currently examining the various reasons for this (legal, economic, cultural and so on) and will present a report to the EU's economic and finance ministers in September.

The report will be based on a number of elements including economic and legal analyses of the present situation as well as input from market practitioners on their views about current obstacles. I want to set out a wide-ranging examination of the factors inhibiting cross-border mergers and acquisitions, warts and all. On this basis, I intend to raise with ministers various key issues that need to be tackled in order to improve the competitive environment for European banking.

One of the issues is the need to adapt EU legislation to the requirements of a dynamic economy. The current controversy about bank takeovers in Italy has helped to highlight some of the problems. For example, it seems absurd to me that if the competent authorities of one member state accept a company which is a viable bank in their territory, the competent authorities in other member states undertake a separate evaluation of the suitability of a well-established and supervised bank. In the specific case of ABN Amro's bid for Banca Antonveneta, valuable time was lost because, under the relevant legislation, the Italian authorities undertook an adjudication of the suitability of ABN Amro's management and shareholders. This meant requesting information from the Dutch authorities and evaluating it. In contrast, the Italian authorities would not have needed the same information to adjudicate on Banca Populare di Lodi, as they already know well the Italian bank's management and shareholders.

In the context of a competitive bidding environment, these delays could give a domestic bidder a clear advantage. This was never the intention of the EU's legislation. While banking authorities must have a role in reviewing the suitability of those in charge, this must be done in a clear and transparent way that does not allow any discriminatory treatment. I believe it should be possible to lay down conditions whereby a form of mutual recognition of bank shareholders could operate between competent authorities.

To redress this and other potential barriers, I will present before the end of this year an overhaul of the relevant provisions of EU banking legislation so that any legal obstacles or ambiguities can be removed. As well as the mutual recognition point, other aspects that need to be dealt with include setting out the relevant criteria and procedures to be followed by competent authorities in member states when assessing new shareholders of banks.

The relatively low levels of bank profitability in the EU make mergers and takeovers less attractive. Increasing returns to scale through efficiency gains, consolidation or otherwise are necessary if EU banks are to break out of this vicious circle of low returns on investment. In the US, the legislature gave the impulse necessary for consolidation to take place. The positive results are evident. The US industry is generally healthier and the economy is stronger. Through further efficiency, Europe can achieve similar beneficial results and ensure the efficient and liquid markets necessary to drive the EU economy. If we want financial institutions that are global participants in the years to come, a strong competitive domestic market is a basic requirement.

What is clear is that we cannot afford to keep important sectors of our economies sheltered from market forces. Whether it be financial services, car manufacturing or textiles, no one is well served by protectionism. Jobs "saved" today are usually at the expense of those who will come on to the job market. In addition, consumers pay higher prices. This is not the pathway that leads to sustainable growth levels. One thing is sure: if the European economy is to regain momentum standing still is not an option.

The writer is a member of the European Commission with responsibility for Internal Market and Services

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:19 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Various

First, via Abu Aardvark, media hounddog, several items of interest:
(i) A new Arab media report. Pity it's all focused on the democracy and governance aspect of media, but I suppose that is what I should expect. Unless I missed it, there was no business aspect (although yes I know, given the state of the media...)

Of note several US program connected discussions. The prime item that stood out to me, however, it the irritating translit al-Hurra seems to have adopted. Alhurra? What kind of childish subliterate translit is that? Gives me the sense of some half-educated British Council English class chat driven failure.
See http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2005/05/tbs_14_online.html

By the way, the articles on al Hurra suggest it is getting 'better' and indeed gaining share, but by programming fluff. Good use of money that (and yes the programs mentioned in the reviews can be found elsewhere, e.g. on LBC etc.).

(ii) MEMRI caught in blatent spin and ... lies.
I like it. http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2005/05/memri_nails_alj.html
I like it alot. A lesson for those of you who would depend on this mendancious for intel op.

Second, I attended some blah blah free trade promotion blah blah waste of time. Some development people were there, I think USAID idjits, blithering on about how expensive credit is for "small and medium sized enterprises" (SMEs in development speak). Are they smoking crack? Local enterprises can get credits ranging from 7-13 percent over a 1 to 5 year term. That's positively ludicrously low given cost of capital and risk premia. Bloody development people, ignorant fools. No wonder their programs are so poorly conceived, they don't understand the bloody market.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:40 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

May 11, 2005

On the Xian Concert in Marrakech, an observation

A comment on a comment on a comment.

Brilliant.

Well, leaving aside my archness for a moment, at this site there is a comment that I wanted to shred, largely because I am mean, but also because it irritated me:

http://www.liberalsagainstterrorism.com/drupal/?q=node/1075#comment

A certain "Andromeda" commented:
I'm not ready to assume this is a bad thing.

One of the things that I've been pondering is that Christian fundamentalists may be better at communicating across cultural boundaries with moderate Muslims because both sides share a strong faith, and a similar set of conservative moral values.

More cultural interchange between Americans and Muslim countries can't possibly be a bad thing. An interfaith dialogue between Christianity and Islam could be extremely helpful in dealing with issues like church-state separation and women's rights, because they'll be less likely to be seen as an attack on Islam if they are conveyed by people who also have a strong (if different) faith.

I do worry that if they get pushy it could provoke antagonism though.
I don't want crazy Christian evangelicals pissing people off.

Also, Muslim and Christian conservatives could also join forces to roll back some more liberalizing social influences as home, which is another negative side effect. But I think that it is more likely such interaction will help liberalize Muslim societies.

This is possibly one of the stupidest things I have read in a bit. Well, to be fair, actually I have read far stupider things, so merely it is irritatingly stupid coming from someone otherwise perhaps not quite so stupid.

First, the idea fundamentalists might be better at communicating across cultural boundaries because of supposed share strong faith is idiotic. Shared 'conservative' values never helped Protestant and Catholic wing nuts communicate during the wars of religion and contemporary conflict. Nor would it appear that "strong faith" has much meaning insofar as the Xian fundies deny the very validity of Islam, where except the most looney of Islamists, Muslims don't deny the validity of Xianity (only look at it as superceded). A fundamental hurdle, that. It's like saying that because I have red hair and you have red hair (I don't actually, but no matter) we understand each other better.

As for Church-State seperation, this is idiotic. There is no Church, the structures are utterly different, no comparision. Nor would Xian conservos make a "dialogue" more "compatible" - a truly idiotic thought - as in fact it would associate the concept of secularism (not Church - State sep) further with what the Islamists insist is a Xian assualt on their religion. In other words, precisely the wrong fucking move. Same for women's rights. Idiotic thinking.

Strong faith has fuck all to do with it. Perception of outsider and the fucking colonial era are the problems. The motherfucking colonial period. Bloody naive gits.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Random Low Value Thoughts

First, today at lunch, after nearly being murdered by a random Fiat (and reflecting that being murdered by a piece of junk like a Fiat would add insult to injury), I was moved to reflect (not for the first time) on the fiendish cleverness of the local authorities in managing to design crosswalks that maximize the chance of murdering pedestrians.

While urban planning in the developing world is frequently said to be non-existant (and the sheer horror of modern Cairo is hard to argue), I for one appreciate the evil genuis that went into the local traffic planning - all with an eye for ensuring the survival of the fittest and weeding out the stupid and the inattentive (as well as the unwary foreigners, who needs them anyway).

While the design here in the financial district is particularly brilliant - the feeding via traffic circles that ensures that regardless of traffic light color, none of the cross walks are ever truly free of traffic - I don't mean mere turning traffic, but full bore run-you-down traffic - I have to say that the most fiendish touch is across me office where a dual light, an ambiguous traffic circle and the leafy quasi Parisian boulevard ensure that while the unwary and unworthy pedestrain may assume they have the light (due to the stopped traffic, one high speed lane remains "green lighted" and partially screened.

A truly brilliant design, sure to whack at least a few insignificant scum. It's a good thing the locals are the proud holders of the title of top ten most murderous streets in the world (which we can also attribute to the peculiar half-observance of traffic laws, which is to say 80 percent of the time they are observed, but a good 20 percent of the time not, just to keep you on your toes).

The other item I have to observe is the irritation I presently feel with the Ministry of (Late) Statistics which just managed to provide me with sub sectoral data to 2002 (lord knows we wouldn't want state secrets slipping out too early), in electronic format.... in a locked pdf. Supercilious pompous gits. On the other hand I am finding scanning the print out, tedious as it is, actually appears to be more efficient than copying data straight out of the PDF. Of course an excel file or something similar would be far too easy.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

May 10, 2005

Well, not such good news: Turkey-Kurds

Overlooked I believe, this is not a good thing:

In Turkey, New Fears That Peace Has Passed
Army Takes Offensive As Kurdish Rebels Return From Iraq

By Karl Vick
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, May 10, 2005; Page A12

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/09/AR2005050901253.html

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:15 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Various Random and Marginally Relevant MENA Obs

First, I am moderately entertained that the Big Shrimp Eater and The Eye Doctor are having a pow wow in Sharm esh-Sheikh
(al-Hayat: http://www.daralhayat.com/arab_news/05-2005/Item-20050509-c2f022b5-c0a8-10ed-0053-d3cf9c0afa19/story.html) Thursday. I can only imagine the fun that conversation will hold.

In related matters, I was very amused to read this little bon mot from Abu Aardvark's favorite Egyptian commentator, Baheya: http://baheyya.blogspot.com/2005/05/enter-ikhwan.html
"You�re starting to sound like Rif�at al-Said (the most venal joker on the Egyptian political scene), and I just don�t buy your claim that the Ikhwan will never change and should be shunned forever."
Not amusing to any of my readers I am sure, but I know Rifaat. He's an entertaining figure, and while I can't disagree with her...brutality, it does bring to mind being in his office once for some, eh, discussions quite a few years back, and him deciding to slap his Beretta down on the desk between us. A most unnerving moment, he being a more than slightly odd chap. Well maintained gun. I even think he knows how to use it.

Mind you, I like the actual commentary there as well. But the bon mot on Rifaat really touched me.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Idiocy: "Christian Rock Concert for Muslims" (updated, with more vitriol and new improved abuse)

Christian Rock for Muslims
By SAMUEL LOEWENBERG
Published: May 10, 2005

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/10/arts/music/10chri.htm?pagewanted=all

This deserves extended comment, when I get a moment. Will update later. From a comment at Abu Aardvark in an item on the Nancy Ajram concert in Marrakech that I mentioned a bit back.

[Update]
Well, I was fascinated that I had heard literally nothing about what would normally be a terribly controversial event. I bit of research showed why: it was spun on the local basis as a purely cultural event with no mention of the religion angle. Indeed only in Western press do I see that echo.

Some interesting links and comments from local press (afraid we shall skip the Arabic press, too hard to search on):
Tourisme
Un nouveau festival pour Marrakech
Marrakech est dotée d’un nouveau festival.
Le «Festival de l’amitié». La première édition aura lieu du 6 au 8 mai en plein air à Bab El Ghli.
Au menu, une programmation axée principalement sur le rock.
http://www.aujourdhui.ma/tourisme-details2407.html

Rock'n' roll arabe à Marrakech
Près de 40 000 Marrakchis et touristes, des jeunes, mais aussi des familles entières, se sont rendus à Bab Ighli, en face des remparts et des jardins de l'Agdal, vendredi 6 mai, dès 18 heures, pour assister à l'ouverture du premier festival de l'Amitié de la ville, le Friendship Fest, sur une grande place dominée par une scène monumentale
http://www.casafree.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=2202

Un festival de rock américain à Marrakech
· De grands noms y sont attendus
· Le Friendship Fest cherche aussi à renforcer la coopération culturelle maroco-U
http://archives.leconomiste.com/article.html?id_journal=2006&a=62494

Marrakech fête le rock
· Le Festival de l’amitié commence aujourd’hui pour trois jours de musique
· De grandes têtes d’affiche sont au programme
· La ville s’oriente vers une cadence d’un festival par mois
http://archives.leconomiste.com/article.html?id_journal=2015&a=62755

Well, if one reads over the various articles it is pretty bloody clear that it wasn't seen as a Xian event but an American rock concern (reflecting I suppose the near complete ignorance locally re American rock and low profile overall - hiphop gets far more play), and most highlight the local groups that played.

The saddest part, however, is the Moroccans putting Xian rock in the context of Marrakech being an emerging destination for the jet set, and mentioning this backwoods rube art form in the same context as the Montreux jazz festival, etc.

Poor hoodwinked bastids.

Now, my comments on the NYT article
Christian Rock for Muslims
By SAMUEL LOEWENBERG
Published: May 10, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/10/arts/music/10chri.htm?pagewanted=all

MARRAKESH, Morocco, May 9 -
In a sprawling open space alongside the Royal Palace here last Saturday night, Baimik Youness and his friend Salahe Boudde were jumping with excitement, about to see their first American rock concert. The Moroccan students had never heard of the band, Rock 'n' Roll Worship Circus. Nor had th