Lounsbury: June 2005 Archives

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June 30, 2005

Some thoughts on Aid

Rnadomly found, I forget how, here: http://williamkaminsky.typepad.com/too_many_worlds/2005/06/anthony_cordesm_1.html

A summary of some comments by Anthony Cordesman.

This in particular caught my attention.
1) The US aid programs have to stop using "Russian standards of performance", to use Dr. Cordesman's colorful metaphor. By this he meant the following. It doesn't necesarily matter what your total expeditures are. The goal is not to spend money but to make definite, cross-the-board improvements in infrastructure and the standard of living. And, no, saying how much was spent on specific projects to that end doesn't count as a legitimate performance standard. Honest, timely evaluation of how well specific projects meet their specific goals is needed. On that note, the local success stories trumpeted in the weekly US aid reports, no matter how inspiring they are (and indeed they are given the danger in which many of those people work), do not constitute necessarily a good measure of performance either. All too often they are blips that do not fit into any systematic plan, or worse, occur in localities chosen for reasons of (often corrupt) service politics.

Well, all well and nice. However, I have a hard time thinking of a successful way to create real benchmarks. This strikes me as unrealistic wishful thinking. Who controls the performance data, are the benchmarks going to be on a reasonable time scale? If not, you just end up finding new ways to piss away money.

Given my limited exposure to development programs (and I confess I don't know or understand their internal dynamics all that well), I fail to see how "honest, timely evaluation" is to be achieved. Rather like exhortations to "good citizenship." Indeed ironic that he used the Russian reference in that context.

2) The underlying notion of the US reconstruction efforts, namely that private companies have a special insight into reforming a kleptocratic command economy that has lacked civilian infrastructure investment for 20 years, insight beyond the international organizations that have dealt with similar problems in say, the former Yugoslavia and Cambodia, was always worrisome. It has now definitely proved to be a fallacy.

Not sure I get this at all.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Consular Affaires

One frequently learns things at them, if the Consuls drink enough. I suppose that is the point.

I learned some interesting things, which when public I will reflect on.

Otherwise, I feel I should find a moment to comment on an ongoing scandal I have alluded to in the past, that of a sex tourism and porno ring in Agadir, Morocco, which has been taking on a dangerous tone. I shall try to find a polite way to comment, as the socio-economic reflexions are interesting and surprising for a country in this region.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:37 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

June 29, 2005

The Big News of the Day

Ladies and Gentlemen, slobbering morons and other cretins who read this lovely blog rather than doing what they should be doing, and thus help justify my cretinous behaviour: I am proud to bring to you the great news of the day. News that has set off a wave of polemics across the country (well not of the day, but relatively recent).

Continue reading "The Big News of the Day"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:12 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005 , Perso-Expatedness

Thinking of emerging markets funds

Just got a prospectus for a 100 mill China Buy Out Fund. Apparently someone was under the mistaken impression that I am qualified investor....

Interesting reading.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

On Convenience

I would like to share how much I love how Microsoft's infinate wisdom in "tight integration" among its office suite functions ensures that whenever my Outlook freezes up (because of course of the idiotic execution of the Firm's own internal connexion) EVERYTHING freezes up. Word, Excel, blah blah.

Makes me want to throw the bloody thing across the room.

^{(And save the IT advice, it's not stuff I am allowed, officially to touch)}

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:25 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

al-Aqoul - a sort of Lounsbury on MENA w/o my self regarding and self indulgent idiocies, etc.

eerie, in a fit of madness, has launched herself on making a group blog, rather like Fist Full of Euros, work.

I note this as a point of advertising. I shall certainly take part, perhaps hiving off my more self indulgent idiocies for this ridiculous little journal, and keeping a serious tone (why, I might not even write fuck quite so often). However, me alone and others (I shall not confess on their behalf any participation) isn't worth eerie's hard IT work. A bit of a clan of self-indulgent persons with pretensions to know some small little abit about the MENA region is needed.

Thus, in my round about way, I am inviting interest. Or inviting you to think about interest. Or suggesting that one should have interest. I should note the site is not open yet.

Other than that I take this moment to expose some of my idiocy.

Last night, working late on this bloody data issue, I suddenly recall I am invited to something at the Briths Consul's club. Since there are people there I want to schmooze with, I close the laptop and make off in haste to the Consul's club down near the Corniche, irritatingly located among a maze of old 1940s era villas (the development being then outside of the city retreat). Arriving late, I am puzzled that there are no fancy cars and the like. Indeed it is all quite dark. No matter, I dash into the club and find... nobody, well hardly anyone. Just two women dining in the garden. Walking over to ask about the event I suddenly realise, bloody hell, today is Tuesday, not Wednesday. I actually slapped my forehead I confess, in a quasi theatrical fit of stupidity.

Well, no matter, I strode over to the two ladies and proudly announced to them that I was terribly sorry for disrupting their dinner, but in a fit of confusion I had come on the wrong day for an event. A fine conversation ensued, and they invited me to drinks and dinner. Thus, I rescued what might have been a total loss. However, I am not sure what knowing the Administrator of some Fund for Abandoned Women and Single Mothers and the owner of a pharmacy is going to do for me, although it was a pleasant enough dinner I suppose, and my unfortunate habit of making absurd pronouncements served me well.

Still, quite tired this am, and now facing another Consular thing, as well as a dinner with the new Commercial Attache the day after.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:59 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Blog Notes - Admin , Jan-July 2005 , Old Livejournal

Why I do what I do.

Interesting point of reflexion emerged on my post on policy and funding last night. I shall extend commentary but for the moment, this post merely allows you to opine.

Well, before letting you opine, if I ever even bother, let me reproduce the comment that provoked this:
Your final paragraph is the key one.

First, all else being equal in theory developing markets ought to offer excess returns in pretty much every sector because they are not as efficient/sophisticated as developed markets. I made a sneering remark earlier about exporting best practices to Nigerian breweries. "Best practices" which ignore local political/cultural/social conditions are unworkable practices or, worse, practices that, when implemented, achieve some completely unintended effect. But you don't need to implement best practices to beat your competition in developing markets, just better practices. To do that, you must understand how and why things work they way they do in the country you're in.

The problem is that all things are not equal. Developing markets must compete for human capital just as they must compete for investment capital. The educated people who would normally be smart, agressive entrepreneurs in developing countries are either a) already part of the established rent-seeking system and, therefore, already making excess returns or b) taking advantage of better opportunities elsewhere. Why mess about with trying to crack the local system when you can make piles of cash in the developed world without having to worry about being economically or physically knee-capped?

In other words, you need the right kind of local partner to make these investments work. But the right kind of local partner often has better things to do than be your local partner. Thus, you're left to choose between various wrong kinds of local partner.

China is a good example of this. When China first opened up, it was as worthless a mess as you could ever hope to see. The best and the brightest Chinese got out of China and never went back, often starting or working for extremely innovative companies in the U.S.

But China did have a lot of highly-trained smart, agressive people who were willing and able (language skills) to game the system -- Hong Kong. They turned China into a place to do business. Now, many Chinese who left China back in the 70s and 80s have gone back or at least established strong business links there and have made piles of cash in the process.

Had you tried to convince some of these people to go back to China to start a business in, say, 1985, they would have laughed at you and quite right, too. But without their (or someone like them's) cultural/political/linguistic skills, any enterpreneurial effort would have been doomed to failure.

In conclusion, if you have the right sort of local partners with the right sort of modern business attitudes you ought to make money in almost any sector -- the more basic the better. If you don't have the right sort of local partners with the right sort of modern business attitudes, you're probably going down in flames no matter how good your idea is.

For example, few things are less sexy than distribution systems. But if you had people with the guanxi to pull it off and the modern business attitudes to run it, you could make piles of money with a Walmart-style business in almost any region in the developing world. The problem is that the folks with the guanxi are already part of the system and the folks with the modern business attitudes are in London.

I plan to comment more on this. The commentator has hit on a number of points that I absolutely agree with. Some items I would qualify, and an excellent area of discussion.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:49 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Policy & Development , Biz - Private in MENA , Business , Jan-July 2005 , MENA Region General , Perso Biz Notes , Perso-Expatedness

June 28, 2005

Economic Development - Med Basin and Bindings Constraints, or rather The Binding Constraint

While this article is not about "my" region per se, it is evocative for everything noted here is equally true of the entire southern Med basin. Something that wet climate people do not properly appreciate and I suspect a nasty item that may not be easily surmountable or perhaps not surmountable at all.

Let me run through quickly.

Spain's worst drought just the start as deserts spread
The Financial Times
By Leslie Crawford
Published: June 27 2005 19:41 | Last updated: June 27 2005 19:41

A severe drought in Spain, the worst since records began in 1947, is playing havoc with livelihoods, sparking forest fires and threatening millions of tourists with water rationing as they head for the beaches this summer.

Worse yet, 2005 is unlikely to be a freak year. Spain is getting hotter and drier, with average temperatures rising by 1�C since 1960. The European Environment Agency estimates that average temperatures will rise by a further 4�C over the next century.

Winters are now so mild that storks have stopped their annual migration to north Africa. Scientists are witnessing desertification many estimate that up to one third of the country may be a desert within 50 years.

This is Spain recall. Now think of the pressures on the southern side of the Mediterranean, from Morocco all the way around to Jordan, Syria and Lebanon.

Official figures show that two thirds of the country is now affected by severe drought, with areas around Valencia, Andalusia and Catalonia, where populations more than double during the summer months, among the worst hit. Farmers and town councils in these areas are already fighting over the allocation of scarce water.

Tourism, the holy grail of interim development. A good economic boost. Long term costing however is not being done. Possible to do? Hard to say.

Agricultural losses are estimated at 1.6bn ($1.9bn), with much of the olive crop in Jaen, Andalusia, the principal olive-growing area, given up for lost. Catalonia has slapped restrictions on water for irrigation and industrial use in the hope of forestalling broader rationing during the dry summer months.

�We desperately need rain before October,� says Jaume Sol�, Catalonia's regional environment minister.

Season starts in October, roughly.

The drought has been exacerbated by Spain's construction boom, which saw a record 700,000 new homes built last year about half of them on the coast.

But the frenzy of building in one of the driest regions of Europe has severely challenged the ability of town planners to provide basic services such as running water.

In the provinces of Alicante and Murcia, on the Mediterranean coast, the regional water authority has asked councils to delay water connections to new tourist developments until after the summer.

The World Wildlife Fund estimates there are 10,000 illegal wells in the Costa del Sol, many of which supply tourist developments and are accelerating the depletion of water resources.

�Spain is abusing the sustainable limits of tourism development,� says Chuck Svoboda, a former Canadian diplomat who leads Abusos Urban�sticos No, a campaign group that is fighting corruption in real estate development on the coast. But the building boom shows no sign of slowing despite the lack of water. The J�car water authority, which supplies Valencia's 4.5m residents, estimates 1m new homes will be built in Valencia over the next decade. In addition, it says town councils have approved the construction of 67 new, water-needy golf courses in the region, bringing the total to 69.

Rafael Blasco, Valencia's regional housing minister, describes golf resorts as a �new kind of agriculture�. He wants the European Union to allocate farming aid to them and dismisses talk about development being overdone.

Emphasis added.

Well, among the items here (besides corruption) that attracted by attention was the amusing assertion of golf resorts as a "new kind of agriculture" and the idea of EU farming aid monies going to such.

I find that a delightfully stupid idea, delicious really. Delicious in its scope for corruption.

Cristina Narbona, Spain's environment minister, says the drought has put the spotlight on the country's farmers, who account for four-fifths of water consumption in Spain. Ms Narbona says fewer than 10 per cent of farmers use efficient irrigation methods. �The remaining 90 per cent still resort to flooding their fields, an incredibly wasteful practice that needs to be eradicated,� Ms Narbona says.

Ms Narbona has secured a 370m budget to fight the drought with desalination plants, more water recycling and the drilling of new wells in the worst hit regions. The risible price Spaniards pay for their water 30 times lower than the European average remains a taboo subject.

Earlier this year, Spain's agriculture ministry shot down a plan drafted by Ms Narbona's department that would have imposed punitive water rates on farmers who waste water.

Tourist resorts and golf courses, with their heavy water consumption, would also have had to pay 15 times more for their water than the average Spanish household.

Without cost incentives to reduce consumption, Ms Narbona can do little more than issue new appeals to save water.

Ah the taboo topic of water pricing. One that gets the Left all in a lather when it is in the context of emerging markets/developing world. The whole "water is a human right" blather. Senseless, mindless oppositionalism (why I have contempt in general for "progressive activism"), when the reality is that personal usage water is fairly trivial as compared to "productive."

Easy, price water. Nope. Not so easy. Emotive, a bit harder to pull off than the academic solution might suggest (proper pricing requiring infrastructural improvements that may be quite vast and expensive). However, absolutely necessary.

Even then, with declining input rates - i.e. less rain - and increasing reliance on non-renewable water resources (fossil ground waters), there is a real recipe for disaster. Now, Spain will have the resources (in theory) to address. Will the Southern Med basin be able to, and in the required time frames.

An idea I have been kicking around, by the way, is in regards to reforestation (a useful form of water retention as well as interesting for carbon sequestration) as a long term investment. Massive reforestation as say a 50 year time horizon placement. Problems, many problems, but as a private placement of capital, could be very interesting, and addresses the chronic problem of little namby pamby development projects - that is they're too fucking small and weak to make a difference.

Private capital mobilsation, with some helpful upfront development capital kickers to incent the initial projects.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:23 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Economics , Jan-July 2005

A last word on Muslim Brothers, Ignorant Cretins and Commentary

I remain blissfully unaware "pundita"'s response if any to my somewhat miscreantish battering of her illiterate, blundering, fact free drooling posturing in regards to the Muslim Brotherhood, etc. I intend to remain so. She is unworthy of even my contempt. One can go here, if one wishes, http://antipundita.blogspot.com/ to note any further idiocies on her part (contra Zen it's just a simple blogger site, no email stealing), I wash my hands.

However, some points of reflection.

First, her silly chicken littlish panicked posturing in regards to the Ikhouane and the like, and the rather sketchy, barely understood "facts" behind it rather demonstrate the dangers of getting informed about something one knows little about via the internet. It's fairly clear she's largely informed herself about the MENA region via websites, often of a hysterical and conspiratorial nature of the lowest quality (despite her lame excuses for the utterly vile nature of her citations, her inability to properly select something not wing-nuttish as a source merely speaks to either her lack of ability to think critically or an absence of judgment. Or both, not to pose a false binary of course).

One need not be an expert to comment intelligently on something, I rather like the clear headed, non-hysterical non-Know Nothing Bolshy Right commentaries that crop up on MENA on the Belgravia Dispatch. Clear headed critical thinking from a Right perspective, without slavish devotion to the ideo-glurge of the moment is a treasure. I hardly agree with all written, but it's an example of clear headedness and a real ability to sift through facts, data, and opinion and properly evaluate (in the sense of distinguishing dross and crap from things worthy of consideration).

The incoherent yet at the same time rather pedestrain, bourgeouis suburban frightened bunny blithering of pundita only highlights the danger of the inability to sift through information, evaluate and put in context. Certainly having experience and proper education on a subject is of great value, but the non-specialist that is attentive to his or her own ... well, lack of training and grounding, can indeed get up to speed and at least have somewhat interesting things to say.

Let me take myself, for example. I should flatter myself in opining that while I know next to nothing about Indian and East Asian politics, my awareness of that, and awareness of the traps one can fall into as a non-specialist blundering in should, were I to be so mad as to do so, I decide to start commenting on the subjects. I might even manage to be reasonably interesting, at the least I should be aware enough to sift through the axe grinding of partisans on various issues (let's say Bangledeshi - Indian politics, something I had some small intimate exposure to by accident of the wrong woman slept with).

The importance here is not pundita's politics (Zen incorrectly stated on his blog I treated her as I do Right non-specialists; I treated her as a blundering self deceiving moron who couldn't even muster the judgment to realise her assertions were absurd, distorted and derived from highly prejudiced sources - I am equally as harsh with Lefties who say idiotic things, as some commentator on eerie's journal learned when she said something moronic in re WTO rules.) but rather proper thinking, critical attention to one's sources, a view to understanding subtexts, and a judicious analysis of not only the facts but one's own actual understanding.

There we are. The contemptibly unfactual assertions and smears regarding Muslim Brotherhood Nazi connexions (silly, ahistorical, and clearly axe grinding by ultra-Zionist ideologlues), female circumcision (incoherent, irrelevant and unfactual blithering), and Islam (simply bloody confused) are not really worthy of further attention.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Understanding www.investorsiraq.com

I remain fascinated by this site. (http://www.investorsiraq.com/index.php)

Absolutely fascinated. I mean first I had no idea there really was a body of .... fools I suppose is the best way to put it, that were willing to put money into things like this.

A bunch of small time financially illiterate currency speculators. I suppose of the dot.com boom day trading mentality, I find it somewhere between attractive and pitiful their complete cluelessness as to the risks they are running. It's absolutely fascinating. Now, certainly there is a lot of posturing and so forth, but nevertheless some percentage of them have clearly actually gone and opened (long distance to be sure) Iraqi accounts to do petty ante speculation on a supposed revaluation of the Iraqi dinar (as well as get in on the ground floor of the supposed boom coming to Iraq).

I'm having a very hard time understanding how such delusions can be sustained, but they are indeed fascinating.

[Update, I urge those who like gory spectables to read the utterly confused postings on the Baghdad stock exchange. Here are people wanting to move into a highly illiquid, barely regulated emerging market and they don't even know how to understand share splits. It's fascinating. Truly fascinating.]

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:38 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Getting away from my core competencies to blither on like a fool

Via another source, I found this delightful little site on Wikipedia, http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/wikiwoo.htm

Among the items I most enjoyed was, in re a discussion of Geghis Khan, this:
"However, much of the European historical record about Genghis Khan and Mongols were recorded from the viewpoint of the victims of Genghis Khan."

That's probably because most people who interacted with Genghis Khan ended up as his victims. If he left behind anything other than victims, I'm sure we would have heard from them.

Brilliant.

A later comment on something called democratic peace theory rather gets it right in re Wikipedia:
This article highlights the Darwinian nature of Wikipedia. Articles are written by competing viewpoints, but the winner is the most energetic writer, not the most informed or accurate.

Bingo. However, it is popular, and sometimes an okay source for basic factual information.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:10 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

New Feature: Comment ID non-livejourn, Thoughts? ; A generalist site

Livejournal, this free piece of crap that I spit on, has a new function: Open ID. Thinking of instituting it for comments.

I am not particularly motivated to really "know" who I am getting comments from, it's just a matter of a string of anon comments gets hard to follow. I ask then you, the readers and occasional suffers from my irascable nature, your thoughts. Does it work with faux web addresses? Should I impose it for all commentators?

Also eerie, in her own private journal raised the concept of a MENA board / blog. Now many of you know that I flirted with this idea, but being fundamentally too lazy and cheap (as well as busy) to pursue, I let this die. Apparently there is some support for the concept.

Livejournal Description
What is OpenID?
What is OpenID?

From our recent news announcement on 2005-06-27:
LiveJournal now supports OpenID. You've probably noticed this option when you go and leave a comment.

If you're confused, that's understandable: OpenID is a little new, and will make more sense as an increasing number of sites on the web start to support it.

In a nutshell, OpenID lets you take your identity with you, proving to other sites on the web that you own a particular URL. LiveJournal's OpenID support lets you use your LiveJournal identity (just your URL) on other websites which take OpenID, and also lets you take your non-LiveJournal identity and use it here.

What does this mean?

-- leaving comments on other blog sites, and proving who you are
-- being able to add/trust/ban people as friends who don't have LiveJournal accounts
-- off-site LJ utilities that require you to prove your identity

It'll get more exciting as other sites start to support it. DeadJournal, since it uses the LiveJournal software, will likely be the first. As time goes on, there's rumors of upcoming support in Movable Type, WordPress, MediaWiki, Bugzilla, TypePad, TypeKey, b2, TextPattern, perl.org, and a bunch of other sites.

In a nutshell, whenever you see this little logo: , that means enter your LiveJournal URL if you want to prove to that site who you are. LiveJournal will ask you to confirm if you trust them, or you can say "trust that site forever". Never enter your password on a non-LiveJournal site. A site using OpenID doesn't need your password, and if they ask for it, they're trying to scam you.

That's it for now. More announcements as we continue to polish our OpenID support and more sites support it. DeadJournal should be this Friday, I hear.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

June 27, 2005

Wolf: Capital Flows

I meant to comment on this, this evening, however, I was distracted and so merely share:

Martin Wolf: Capital flow must change course
By Martin Wolf
Published: June 26 2005 20:09 | Last updated: June 26 2005 20:09
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/2b30713a-e66e-11d9-b6bc-00000e2511c8.html

Yes, it's sub. Bloody well sub up, FT is worth it. Else fuck off.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:53 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Moronic Twit II (some clarifications)

This is thanks to eerie, who now owes me two hours.
Pundita, the ignorant whinging moron continues her blithering blundering about the Ikhouane and her general incoherence on the topic in general:
http://pundita.blogspot.com/2005/06/pundita-replies-to-questions-about.html

For amusement sake's only (although I suppose continuous mocking of somehow clearly do dim and ill-informed, not to mention such a bleedingly self-referential semi-literate git is perhaps moderately cruel):
1) For the reader who asked why Pundita picked on the British and left the French, Germans, etc. out of it -- because America is more an "Anglo" culture than any other. I speak very bluntly to the British, in the manner of "family talk."

2) It is so well established that Britain became the "terror capital of the world" by the 1990s that it's not necessary to provide data to support the statement. It is widely known that they had an open-door policy for every terrorist organization on the planet.

I'm not sure why I quote this other than to marvel at the talent for asserting exageration as some kind of fact.

What the fuck it has to do with the Ikhouane in Egypt and seeing where they fit in the political calculus of the day, I have no idea, but there it is. Bloody Larouchite whinging on I suppose.

BTW, what the squeeling idiot of a stereotypical Right Bolshy ignorant git of a Know Nothing pandering ideologue is refering to is the United Kingdom's fairly tolerant political asylum position in re political figures with, shall we say unsavoury connexions? Late 1980s through 1990s, something of a don't piss in our pond policy. Nothing new there, see Karl Marx. English liberalism (not American liberalism). Terror capital of the world is merely scare phrasing by people of the Chicken Little The World is Ending blah blah sort.

One should note that the following statement in re "not figuring out" is quite wrong, merely a bit of realism post 11 September regarding UK's "special friend" as it were. As a general matter the policy worked, precious little on English soil MENA radical actions. However, has some unfortunate side effects - but nothing particularly English about it. The United States practiced and practices to an extent the same thing in regards to the IRA, etc.

Real world, kiddies, real world.

Moving along from this irrelevancy, I skip over the hysterics regarding the United Kingdom etc. on the verge of collapse. Hysterics are often amusing, but in this case, this is merely ultra right Tinfoil Hattery at its self deluding pedestrian level of expression. Quite clearly the UK etc. is not in the grips of ... well some end of the world frippery I suppose.

Next, we have the public stoning thingy and we find the silly little of an ignorant Chicken Little Squeeler was raising something in Iran in regards to the Ikhouane - the connexion as one had to suspect when the initial reading occured was simply the vague "Some Muslims did Bad Thing X once somewhere and so this has to be connected to the Ikhouane because Muslim = Ikhouane in my confused benighted twittish thinking."

Of course is might be moderately uncharitable to point out that: (i) it's Iran, a Shia state, has fuck all to do with the Sunni Salafists and Egyptian politics, (ii) stoning really had fuck all to do with the original ludicrous claim that the Ikhouane were leftovers or whatever of the Nazi party in Egypt although one I suppose out of some marginal generosity can perhaps forgive an analytically impaired, hysterical dim wit for her flailing about in a rather pitiful attempt to string together an argument (or some hand waving pretension to a straw man), (iii) that the mere existance of stoning in other (non-Arab esp) countries doesn't say anything about the Egyptian Ikhouane, any more than ostensible Xians in South Africa stoning and necklacing (burning) presumed witches says something about Conservative Xians in the United States (other than stressed rural cultures seem to produce barbarities), (iv) her silly and arch presumption to know something here is rendered yet more comical by her confused blundering and inability to distinguish between countries and different sects in Islam.

In short, precisely what I thought right at the start, a quasi racist blundering about with a broad brush to smear (partly out of blind prejudice, partly out of inempt semi literate ignorance) rather than actually have an informed response to her initial idiotic assertion.

However, this blithering little Know Nothing bludering drooler of an ideological twit is not content to stop digging when her pitiful ignorance is exposed, she desires to charge ahead.

Next there is this wonderful bit of self parody (or in the alternative delightful window into the mind of someone so dimwitted as to lack the barest elements of basic analytical thought) of the confused shrieker as straw man builder:
For the male reader [ndlr: That would be yours truly] who expressed confusion about my application of the word "terrorism" to acts of public stoning and genital mutilation of female children -- I am not going to describe how these mutilations are carried out when not done in a clinical setting. My intention is to inform, not make the reader's blood boil. But the reader may trust that if someone did that to his penis when he was a boy, he would be properly terrorized for life.

Well, what can we say. I suppose it's intriguing to see a flat out admission of utter cluelessness, and the exposure of this idiotic git's clumsy confusion of political terror (what one typicaly means by terrorism in ordinary English language usage by persons who have managed some vague mastery of the language, its basic functions and even a bit of logically joined up writing - a category "pundita" rather clearly does not belong in) with simply being "terrified" or "terrorised" by an event. Obviously a rather clumsy and ill-thought out smear insofar as by this, well, what can one call it? Illogic? Anti-Logic? Negation of logic? Well, regardless, by this illogical blundering obviously drunken driving would be "terrorism" since it can "terrorize" people.

[added note]
Of course, having actually been (and not on motherfucking safaris) to such places where female and male circumcision is practiced, I can assure you, nothing happens under clinical conditions, you pampered Western fatass twit of a whinging moronic git.
[close added note to twit]

But we've really entered into the Orwellian world of newspeak (perhaps the semi-literate whinging little git should actually read some Orwell. The Elephant, his Indian works might - if we were visited by some miracle and the semi-literate git actually was able to follow and understand - actually educate her).

Of course, female circumcision done in backwoods places isn't pretty. But then neither is male circumcision. Same tools.

Of course, as pointed out previously this has fuck all to do with Islam as Islam or even the Ikhouane's political place in Egypt, or her absurdly hysterical unfactual shreiking about Nazi past.

Now, the following few paragraphs are more semi-literate illogical trash of some cesspool of confusion which I have not had enough rhum to inflict upon myself. Rather clearly the author is flailing about trying to latch onto something that will make me stop laughing derisively at her and perhaps throw a bone of pity. Sorry chicky, your blundering about remains contemptibly ill-informed and best characterised by a sort of juvenile confusion of illogic that I might normally associate with 5 year olds.

I only note in closing, because I want to fuck off and get back to real work, that the confused paragraphs asserting some bizarro world conspiracy of Muslim something or other leaders duping something or other blah blah blah about female circumcision is pure ... bunk. If not made up whole cloth, it rather appears to have been derived from some deluded reading of hysterical ultra bigotted Xian fundy sites on Islam in Africa (indeed one suspects that is the case, since it rather appears the semi-literate scrawler known as "pundita" aka drooling twit of ideoglurbe pimping whore for the Know Nothings lacks the barest or even most child-like critical thinking facilities or an ability to tell good sourcing from motherfucking looney tunes (see again Larouche and her other charming cites)).

Conspiracy mongering websites, confused ahistorical (and downright mendacious) blithering about female circumcision, all brought up in blundering attempt to prove.... well I can't really tell, other than I suppose it is some ineffectual attempt at a defence from my charge that she is at once (i) dim, (ii) tedious, (iii) a poor writer, (iv) absurdly illogical and incapable of proper analytical thought, (v) posessing the analytical skills of a small retarded child, (vi) likely a closest racist of that pedestrian polite sort that is afraid of the brown people, (vii) incapable of a properly organized argument and lacking in real entertainment value, (viii) grossly ignorant of the subject she is attempting to treat, and lacking in the natural intelligence to even begin to form an opinion, (ix) deluded as to her own reading comprehension, (x) tedious again, (xi) even more tedious for the scaberous illogic of her arguments that aren't even all that entertaining, (x) too pedestrain to be entertaining.

There you have it. I am done. eerie, don't tell me what this idiotic gimp of a self deluded semi-literate mongerer of putrid ideologue-glurge and driblling moron writes in response. I have better things to do, like laugh at the morons who are putting their dollars into unsecured Iraqi banks. Those dribbling circus freaks entertain me, this idiot merely annoys me.

[Added Thought]

On reflection the thrust of the blundering and blithering concoction of ad hoc assertions, confused smears, and general Chicken Little squeeling about the scary Muslims is "Muslims scary, people not like me very scary, must have people like me." The more potentially supportable, were it not bundled up in the vaguely racist tripe of this concoction of blithering, question might be "will they (the Ikhouane) play ball if they enter into the game."

Well, only one way to find out. Better it be in an organised sense than in Revolution. Not talking to the Shah's enemies, as Zenpundit rightly pointed out, did not change the socio-political calculus for the better.

Or to return to a point a business partern made to me that I love to cite: "Just because he speaks good English, don't be fooled." That is, just because someone has the superficial cultural habits that are familiar to you, don't think that means he's really your amigo. Self delusion is the worst sin of all in the realist world.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:46 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Sucker Born Every Minute: Iraq Investors Forum, rubes to pick....

Investor's Iraq Forum
http://www.investorsiraq.com/index.php?

I daresay this is real. Pitiful and full of rubes, but .... it makes me almost salivate. Were I evil that is.

[Edit]

Okay, I have not been able to resist reading this site. It's just... wonderful in its pure idiocy. These are small timers speculating on Iraqi currency and potentially Iraqi securities with near zero knowledge of the country except the political angle and ... well just right out religious belief in the politics.

Posters expecting the Iraqi banking system to be FDIC insured. It's delightful in its naivete.

[Edit II]

I have really been sucked into reading this delightful nest of utter rubes. Someone crowing that a 2 year CD in Iraqi dinars returning 6 percent held with an unknown Iraqi bank is a "great deal." This ignorant rube has no clue what risks he's looking at, locking himself into Iraqi dinars at a set rate for two years. Illiquid placement in a highly unstable environment, denominated in a foreign currency, itself unstable and unproven. Bloody hell, one can get a USD return on a retail eurodollar CD of four percent.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Various matters: Apartments, Titanic Scenarios, Translation, US Comm in MENA, Iran and t-shirts (ed)

Well, I am pleased to announce (for the amusement of that small minority who know me somewhat in real life) that I managed to furnish my entire new apartment in a highly efficient whirlwind of strike-counter strike shopping. While I must note that certain women did some pre-sales reconnaissance, a mere afternoon of laying down my card suffice to execute all but my home office (which I am planning). A model of efficiency in buying that pleased me immensely.

Sadly, I saw the paint and colors selected by the women for the apartment. I suppose my preference for institutional white was doomed from the start, but I have to say I find the colors moderately atrocious, but not entirely unsupportable. While not truly awful, the salon is a strangely off yellow that while not offensive just isn't right. Well, no matter, something to be covered with hangings and lame excuses that I was not arround for the selection. My office to be is a bit too red, makes one think of things other than work, but what the hell. At least it has a patio door unto my terrace which I am already planning as my center for Cuban planning and the like. Rhum and grapefruit juice, although I think I should get more into red wines again. I also note in passing, and in defence of the women, that I think the dishonest scum of a contractor (no doubt no need for the adjectives) not only did at best a medoicre job of painting (lay down a fucking drop cloth you ignorant illiterate country bumpkins) but cheated on the paint, helping the yellow look so peculiar.

Now, to add local color, distracting from the unfortunate (but bearable) paint selection, that will take more time and less efficient buying, I shall leave that to local agents as I invariably find haggling over lamps and the like far too irritating, and I have a lot of fucking work to do.

Thinking of work, the stream of resignations in Central continues - in the past few days a newly hired Director quits, a Managing Director has partially resigned, a new product specialist hired away from the Big C quits (bloody smart, but that was fast), and some frustrated overseas staff resigned. I do detect a listing, but we must pretend all is well and continue to play a waltz, rearrange some deck chairs for the upper management and ignore the gringing noise from below the decks. The Captian assures me with a bit more speed we can power through this. Who am I to disbelieve the Captain? I note that I had a feeler asking me to "make a play" on the local side, I rejected absolutely out of hand. Why take responsibility for what is clearly doomed? I have my rubber ducky and my plans for paddling away fast enough not to be sucked under.

This aside, I was just reflecting on translation. Running through a translation for some items for the firm, I started thinking about the problem of translation in a business or operational context (not the business side of translation per se). It is not something much spoken of, but frankly I think it is more important than often let on.

Now perosnally I do a lot of translation, cleaning or just going at it myself, for my current and my past firms. Sure they can afford translation, proper translators and intepretors and it is a poor use of my time at some level, but frankly for technical issues (using technical in a loosey goosey sense) to get certain things right, it requires "expert" (i.e. not completely uninformed) input. I rather feel that most people do not realise just how mediocre most translators and interpretors really are, even at the top levels (and I do mean top). One depends on what are in fact rough approximations of what the other guy is saying - yet too many fail to understand that (and I note the online machine translations are even worse).

Well, regardless, a quick comment on Iran. Interesting is all I have to say. I have never followed Iran all that closely, it's outside "my world" as it were. Interesting interviews I saw on the Sats. A goodly number of interviewees seemed to suggest that the Mayor won the Presidency largely on his image of incorruptibility and simplicity. Driver, less ideology qua ideology, more a simple reaction against corruption. Will fail of course, interesting to see.

Next, I see from Zen that that contemptible semi-literate twit "pundita" (I have to say I suspect her to be a US Defence Department type or contractor, matches the semi-literate profile perfectly. Explains the CPA of course, full of these morons) has a post on "Going Native" where she manages to display even less of a glimmer of a clue than before. I suppose that is what utter and complete ignorance, in a willfully blind fashion will produce (along with a large dollop of wishful thinking and messianic transformational claptrap.). Perhaps I may later be moved to rip this apart, for the moment I merely note my contempt for such ignorant twaddle (although it does make a fine example of argument by mere assertion, and building fantastical castles in the air).

Small added thought here: I should perhaps suggest to that semi-literate navel gazing twit pundita that she might familiarize herself with Orwell (as in Orwell, George otherwise known as Eric Blair, 1903-1950) and his writing on actual colonial experience before writing transparently idiotic things about "going native" etc.

[ADDED THOUGHT]
I caught reporting on two items in relation to this sort of ignorant, self-indulgent navel gazing self deluding tripe.
(i) The international reporting on American criticisms of the legitimacy of the Iranian election. Taking for granted that the conservatives in Iran cheated to some extent, there was quite a tone of -not quite mockery but bemusement perhaps- across the Sats, Arab and Euro, in re American criticisms. Leaving aside the substance, a point to retain: blowing one's credibility raises one's transaction costs. As American street cred. is at historic lows, e.g. because of the rank hypocrisy and lies in regards to torture and the like (I understand the dabbling, but once the hand is caught in the cookie jar, the credible response is not the route that the Bush Admin -sadly predictably- took, rather clumsy denial that only seems to stick with the pre-fooled), American transaction costs for gaining traction on criticisms is at an all time high. Repeated games, mates, repeated games.
(ii) The same international reporting on the visit of a set of American senators to Gauntanamo had the same sort of reaction. I am afraid this sort of staged posturing really does little good (except I suppose among the base of the pre-fooled), and indeed gives the US an almost Soviet feel in its clumsy self indulgent self-deceiving agitprop.

Clumsy and counterproductive.
[END ADDED THOUGHT]

Finally, I note the incredibly stunning office manager has a particularly blasphemous shirt on that I am not sure I enjoy or not. Well, no, I do enjoy it, but feel guilty. Or something. It has a a print of two hands in typical Islamic prayer position (i.e. more or less like the more stylised hands of Fatima), where the hands end up, how shall I put it? Strategically supporting as it were. Very distracting. I shall have to avoid any conversations with her today.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:40 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Question re gadgets for the Gadget Wise

Without entering into the detials, I have the occasion, if I so choose, to get the following for free:
http://reviews.cnet.com/HP_iPaq_rx3715_Mobile_Media_Companion/4505-3127_7-30974568-2.html?tag=top
(also http://h18000.www1.hp.com/products/quickspecs/11960_na/11960_na.HTML)

Or I can bank the credit for some future gadget.

Since I am in the market for a new PDA, I am intrigued. But the question is, good or not. NB the multimedia stuff ex wifi surfing is of little interest to me.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:52 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

June 24, 2005

Well, before fucking off for drinks and work - Muslim Brotherhood and Nazis

A comment on this, sadly brought to my attention by my dear eerie:
http://pundita.blogspot.com/2005/06/muslim-brotherhood-skeleton-in.html

A few comments on this then, as the whinging little moron doesn't have any on her own bloody place.

Actually as I reflect it's hard to know where to start in that morass of semi literate rambling.

First, I suppose I am bemused by anyone who cites to Lyndon La Rouche. I suppose that pretty much sums up the quality of intellect one is facing, sadly. The confused rambling about Iranian-EU relations is pretty boring and trivially confused ideo-glurge in my view. The para on British despising their own culture by refusing to anglicize immigrants is ... unique its combination of delusion and bizarrely misinformed stereotyping. The connexion is a bit hard to grasp, really, although does amusingly suggest a somewhat addled brain on the part of the writer.

Moving right along to this gem, which eerie cited for me and which prompted this:
Collunsbury is uninformed about the present activities and intent of the brotherhood's leaders. But this aside, clearly he does not perceive as terrorism the practice of sawing off a female child's clitoris for the express purpose of robbing her of sexual pleasure in adulthood. Or the act of burying a child in the ground up to the neck, then picking up stones and hurling them at the child's head until it is pulp; this done for offenses so minor among civilized peoples they don't even amount to a prank.

Barbaric tribal practices one can understand -- they are ghastly but at least comprehensible acts rooted in humankind's primitive past. But that this primitivism should be tolerated, accorded the rank of civilized behavior in the modern era by the British culture, speaks of an evil nearly beyond comprehension. It is an evil that threatens the survival of the human race. So if you find yourself wondering how someone such as Collunsbury can shrug off terrorism as "realism," go ask the British for the answer.

Well, what can we say. First, of course, this idiotic little twit sitting the United States wants to pretend to know something of the region. That's fine, shouldn't be so comically misinformed as to make grotesquely moronic comments like the Ikhouane are remnants on the Nazi party.

This aside, on the issue of female circumcision, raised.... well the lord the bloody fuck knows why except as some kind of confused smear I suppose.

Rather obviously female circumscision is not terrorism in any sense of the word. It's certainly a repulsive practice, but terrorism does not mean - for most people with say passing mastery of the English language, a modicum of logical skills and perhaps, just for the novelty value, some glimmering of critical thinking "Some practice I don't like."

Of course, this has fuck all to do with Islam or al-Qaeda or whatever. Female circumcision is an African practice, found in southern Egypt, down through North East Africa and over into the Sahel. Muslims and non-Muslims alike practice it, and the nexus is Egypt. It's unknown in most of the Islamic and even Arab world. What can we say. An illogical vaguely racist smear by an ignorant and confused twit. (Never mind the bizarre aside regarding British culture which is both incoherent and puzzling insofar as I am unaware of a means of a "Culture" should accord anything at all - it is amusing I must say though, one has a bit of a peep into the mind of someone more than slightly addled in thinking. Rather circus freakish actually, one almost feels bad chortling at the idiot)

Of course, this again has fuck all to do with the actual question: "Do business with the Ikhouane or not" - except in the addled mind of the commentator who appears to be stumbling through a fog of ... well I suppose some congenital disorder or something like that, and apparently is unaware of simple logic (I do refer to the "fallacy of composition").

Moving down further, I frankly have no clue as to the child and stone hurling bit, nor what possible connexion this has with the Ikhouane in Egypt. I guess we have to put it down to the writer having once heard that (presumed Muslims I would guess) somewhere at some time stoned someone, and this ipso facto devolves down to all Muslims do this, and ipso facto the Ikhouane are somehow responsible. As Muslims.

In short, more racist tripe of the most confused variety, really rather garden variety idiocy.

Down further, well the next part almost made my head hurt.

It appears from that confused muddle of paragraphs that this pitiful circus freak of an addled drooling little moron has derived the comical assertion the Ikhouane are identical to the Nazi party, as supposed remanants from a queer little ultra right wing conspiracy site with such overheated chicken little shreiking stories as "One in Ten Illegal Immigrants is a Terrorist" (getting the anti-immigrant scared of the darkies angle in with the shreiking, whinging, scared to death of the Terrorist filled outside world angle - all in one unattractive repulsive bundle for greater efficiency for the Know Nothing factor).

What can I say?

Well, the first thing to say is: How very unsurprising such a ridiculous, ignorant, ludicrously misinformed, overhyped and utterly illiterate assertion came from such a source. Second, how very unsurprising that angle is being pimped by someone with such books to his name as "The Secret War Against the Jews" which purports to prove the Western democracies have been trying to undermine Israel throughout the 20th century (including Reagan....).

I hardly feel it necessary to even go beyond that. I think... well I think we fairly clearly see that we have nice little American ultra right looney toon amusingly blithering on in her native habitate, oblivious to the real world except for those funny shadows it makes on her little bubble. Queer, moderately amusing in short doses, the native American ultra right looney tune, however does seem prone to muddled thinking and much blundering.

Regardless, this has now delayed my consumption of delightful Cuban products by a good hour, which is far, far, far too long.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Odd

I got a call from some USG type in the den of iniquity asking for my input on some oddball USG initiative of regional financial relation.

I guess I shall beaver away this weekend on a memo for him for free. The question arises, where the fuck did he get my bloody cell phone number from though? I suppose some disolute friend of mine exiled back to the land of plenty. Lord knows he must have been drunk, but still, titilated by the idea I could have some vague influence on policy and the waste of a handful of trivial millions, I shall indulge. Besides, kick start me on work I need to get done anyway.

In a vaguely related connexion, I noted this:
US foreign investment jumps to $252bn
By Christopher Swann in Washington
Published: June 23 2005 17:07 | Last updated: June 23 2005 17:00
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/7f43df94-e3ff-11d9-a754-00000e2511c8.html

Some interesting paragraphs:
Although US companies were aggressive buyers of foreign assets, there was no sign that the US was becoming less popular as an investment destination. Direct investment into the US climbed from $67bn to $107bn in 2004.

Mark Zandi, chief strategist at Economy.com, a consultant group, said the data showed US companies were spending record cash hoards mainly on Asian investments. �US companies are attracted to Asia partly because the currencies remain competitive, but also as low cost bases for production destination and as growing markets in their own right,� he said. �Europe is almost a mirror image of this.�

Inward investment into Germany and France, the largest economies on continental Europe, fell sharply last year. In France, inward investment almost halved from $43bn to $24bn. In Germany, foreign investors actually withdrew $39bn, having invested $27bn in 2003.

Wealthy countries overall stepped up investment in developing economies with overall OECD outflows climbing from $593bn to $668bn in 2004.

In particular, it seems like a good time to be having a pinky involved in emerging market flows. Might not be good for the investors, but fuck it, caveat emptor.

I also note this:
White House steps up defence of Iraq policy
By Caroline Daniel and Guy Dinmore in Washington
Published: June 23 2005 20:38 | Last updated: June 24 2005 00:21

Won't even bother with a link, the usual story. The Bush Administration will roll out a new, yet more unrealistic round of useless and self deceiving happy talk that will dupe the gullible and the Pre Fooled for a bit, while doing nothing of substance. Same story since 2003.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

France, never missing an occasion to apply the lessons of the early 20th century

France bets all on picking winners
By Peggy Hollinger
Published: June 23 2005 18:45 | Last updated: June 23 2005 18:45
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/ee034f20-e40c-11d9-a754-00000e2511c8.html

Perhaps I am being too harsh, but my frustration with the Hexagone's silly economic policies continues.

While most other countries have let market forces decide where skills and expertise lie, the French state is taking the initiative by asking the regions to compete for the accolade. More surprisingly in a country where governments have traditionally provided strong support for lagging regions, the policy appears to divert more resources towards those that can already show clear advantages.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

In other matters

I have, I am afraid, polluted Zenpundit's generally genteel space here: http://zenpundit.blogspot.com/2005/06/semi-strong-for-democracy-odd-sort-of.html as a contemptible moron irritated me with idiotic comments on the Ikhouane and other drooling ideologue glurge.

I should say I rather was in accord with Zen's realism and overall thinking. In short, reality is that the nice namby pamby liberals (in the classic sense or even in the American sense) are not the real opposition in any of the MENA countries, and if one wants to avoid Iran II, one should work with reality, not wishful thinking. Neutering the Ikhouane? I dunno about neutering as he puts it, but I have known enough real live Ikhouane to be of the firm conviction that a majority among them can be peeled away from al-Qaedah type nihilism into a more realistic engagement with the world - if they think they really get to play in the game. Total exclusion merely means that al-Qaedah sounds right. So there you are. Deal with reality or play wishful thinking and imagine some fantasy world of liberal center-right oppositions magically with real support magically appearing. They are not.

A further thought, on Rice's comments about not talking to the Ikhouane. If it's real policy it's stupid, short sighted wishful thinking as policy. If it's "No way are we going to admit such but of course in back channels because we are rational realists that understand the world is what it is, and not what we wish it were, we are going to build relationships - but of course we can't say this in public because the Know Nothing Morons, the Cry Bloody Murder Left Perfectionists Against Any Reasonable Progress and other assorted fools will whinge on and blow up the game" - well then I say, good move.

Finally, I was asked recently in comments if it continues to get harder to do business as part of an American firm and all that. I've given this some thought and have to say frankly more immediate issues for me overwhelm my ability to tease out current evolution. And I personally am too 'native' (as well as, ahem, roguishly charming or other such nonsense) to get this.

I do note this Pew Global survey that strikes me as about right: http://pewglobal.org/reports/display.php?ReportID=247
Seems to me the United States is indeed on a sort of side crawl trend. I also note that the clear collapse in positive image in the past four years should be considered a real issue. International policy and positioning should never be a mere popularity play, but on the other hand, such a deep collapse of image is a real danger "to the brand" as we say. The United States would be well served to stop indulging in self serving Know Nothing self pandering and look to taking more effective action to boost its image among reasonable audiences. I note as I have in the past that I have heard and continue to hear normally quite pro American, indeed liberal (again in the international sense) business types increasingly anti-American sentiment. This is your core audience overseas. If you're losing these kind of people, something is going wrong, and should not be dismissed as reflexive Lefty anti-Americanism (which of course is a congenital disease about which one can do little other than mock them).

However, I remain certain that the Know Nothing types that have taken over the American Right will continue to celebrate own goals as actual scoring against the other team. Their equally congenital confusion and stupidity merely serves to illustrate that moronic ideological posturing is not merely for the Left.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Al Jazeerah - Durbin-Rice etc.

The Father of Ardvaarks opined and asked a question here regarding broadcasts re this Durbin issue:
http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2005/06/aljazeera_broad.html

I am not bothering to opine on what is largely a US domestic political spat of little interest to me (other than confirming the Know Nothing Ignoramuses continue to sputter on about al-Jazeerah), however since I (i) live in the region, (ii) am a regular al-Arabiyah and al-Jazeerah watcher (broadcasts) let me lend a hand since he seems to be getting much negative commentary.

I can attest that I do not recall hearing anything about Durbin on al-Arabiyah or al-Jazeerah during the time period in question. While of course I do not watch either constantly, I should say that I consume enough that had it been a featured item of great impact I probably should have seen it. Thus, while the remarks may have been broadcast (and so what), they were not high profile. Rice's visit etc was rather more so.

There you go. This of course is irrelevant to the ideological squeeling between the two sets of partisans on the other side of the Atlantic, but what can one say?

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:34 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

The Oprah Affaire

I just read about this in the Washington Post. My only comment is these bloody people whinging on in the States have simply never dealt with French stores before. Closing hours are holy.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:53 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

June 23, 2005

Labor laws and the like

A brief moment before I fuck off.

I really have to find the time to comment on an utterly amusing article in the local finance journal about the "Controversy" regarding the new minimum wage and the like here. It is a textbook example of how not to do economic policy. In its simplest form, and most amusing form, no one can figure out exactely what the minimum should be. Sound strange? Well, yes, but recall we're under Code Civil here, and better, we look to France for utterly cockamamie ideas on how to do economic policy. So, what one does to boost (a small chortle is due here) living standards is pass two laws, one mandating (this is the first one) the minimum wage rise 10 percent. The other mandating the work week be reduced 20 percent, and further that "no reducation in compensation is legal" with this reduction in work hours. Then you leave it to the benighted morons in the "Labor Movement" (aka rent seeking corrupt scum) to "protect" the "social solidarity movement" (aka try to impose the highest costs possible so you can skim off more dues) to concoct a "reading" of the law that would have the minimum wage rise above the ten percent rise, because clearly if the work week is reduced and people are being paid less because they're working less hours, then this is an implied reduction in salary.

Protecting workers rights and all that.

Solidarity, Reg

(ten local centimes to those who get my signature line on these issues)

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:52 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Random Media Observations in the Maghreb

First, taking a break from amassing data and fiddling around with what I know to be an utterly doomed project as we flail about (well my local Director) in the desperate death throes of a firm that has just realized it has slit its own throat and somehow believes running around desperately squeeling like a piglet is an appropriate action. _{(The throat slitting being derived from a disastrous meeting with a Really Big Decision Maker - thank god I was not there - in which said RBDM decided he wants to crush us like bugs. As the RBDM is simply an influential person here, this is an indirect rather than a direct thing, but me fine local BSD had a meeting that was so bad with RBDM that an outside attendee said he told his intern -there taking notes- that it was a classic example of what never to do in meetings with RBDMs. Hey, I say, at least we're setting standards. Negative standards, but standards never the less)}

Second, I am bemused by the latest intra-Maghrebine spat - they arise quite regularly as while the Arab Maghreb is a brotherly union, sadly the familial relations are on par of those of family expelled from public housing for bad benaviour, and 'brotherly cooperation' may be translated into "ludicrously self defeating back stabbing while one piously postures about one's familial feelings for one's much hated cousins, etc. and one proudly blames all failures of family cooperation on the nefarious idiocy of everyone else in the family, as well as the odd outsiders who must be leading one's simple minded relations into error. France and US of A being convenient."

As usual this is about the Western Sahara, and the childish idiocy about that wasteland of flat stone desert whose only vague interest is a fuck load of phosphate deposits (well one has to grant the off shore fishing and the mirage of the off shore oil). The Algerians are still trying to fuck with the Moroccans, the Moroccans the inverse. It's really quite pointless.

Now, I add, in advance, that I entirely support Moroccan rule over the Western Sahara - but sadly for merely pragmatic grounds (although I confess I find the Moroccan pretensions to historical rule over the territory about as convincing as anyone else's, and the whole idiocy of little colonial confettis having a real existance [see Eritrea] strikes me as absurd posturing by corrupt elites with power on the mind).

Pragmatic grounds may be simply stated as the following, regardless of legitimacy of claims, one has to look at the reality.

The reality is that Western Sahara is a fucking wasteland. It's largely not even interesting desert. It's just bloody desert. Now, this little chunk of desert has a few choices, which may be broken down into the primary binary of (a) Impoverished and impossibly corrupt pseudo independent client state, or (b) Impoverished, potentially not so corrupt part of some other state.

Taking (a) as the prime case, what do you have? You've got Western Sahara as the corrupt client of Algeria (although the corrupt elite would likely play with the Moroccans as well). Probably subventions from the Algerian Vampire State would keep the elite in Laayoune (al Ayoune) alive and well. Saharouine would still have to migrate north for work, but would need passports for either Morocco or Algeria. Another corrupt little colonial remnant as state.

Taking (b) as the prime case, we get it as either part of Morocco or Mauretania or Algeria. At least being part of a bigger state gives more work opps, in theory at least, for the pop, and potentially a better chance of attracting investment. Now, of the three neighbors, who would you choose?

Me, I'd go with Morocco. Morocco ain't a paradise, but bloody hell, at least it's not Mauretania which is a nasty waste of real estate that should itself have been part of something else. Algeria? Well, let's say that being part of Algeria seems about as intelligent as joining up with Iraq. Ongoing civil conflict, vampiric elite self-funding through a corrupt hydrocarbon export lifeline..... Morocco has at least the signs of developing towards reasonable normality. Better deal overall.

Now, sadly, this probably means more Moroccan affirmative action for the backwards ass tribals from the Sahara, where they can be .... say put at the head of an employers assocation and then say incredibly stupid things. Not that Sahraouine are congenitally dumb people, it's quite simply that all that hot black rock tends to addle the brain.

This aside, this latest spat has generated a lot of heated press on the Sahara and the like. I have to say that while the Moroccan press on domestic issues ex-Sahara is getting to be pretty good, why sometimes even really genuinely informative, when we get back on the Saharan issue we rewind writing and so forth habits 50 years. Pure wooden and really dumb propaganda. Stunningly clumsy. Sadly, and oddly, a lot of locals lap it up. Sahara is more or less genuinely popular as in issue (it's ours!!! woohoo, some more fucking sand and idiots on camels. Who we tell dumb polack style jokes about (with some merit it has to be said)).

It is disappointing to see a press that is getting okay in terms of critical coverage, utterly regress on for. policy issues - even more disappointing is the sensation that the regression is not from actual censorship but pure lack of critical thinking and an excess of nationalistic zeal.

One the other hand, being anti-Algerian government is so very easy.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:50 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Feedback

I continue to be rather busy, but a request to the readers:

Visit this site and tell me what you think: www.empea.net (Emerging Markets Private Equity Assoc.)

I note for the sake of full disclosure that I know most of the people behind this. Wanted to see what readers thought.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:15 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

June 22, 2005

I should write about the labor law

However, I am far too fascinated by the local scandal regarding a Belgian run porno ring. It's gotten so big even the business press is reporting on it.

At least it gives me the opportunity to use the line, "Well at least I am no Belgian." To much local amusement. However a bit of an ugly side to this, beside the abuse of the girls involved by the Belgian scum, going to give the Islamists ammunition.

Otherwise, interesting convo I had at another biz din about the comments of a certain Nadia Yassine about M6 and the monarchy. Although the locals were all of the quite liberal bent (libertarian if you will) not one defended her.

Added thought. Although the attendees were all liberals, business people, and largely pro American, the level of anger expressed in re Iraq was something that took me aback. I don't talk much about it myself, indeed it's not much of a subject, but since we had an American at the table (a real one in from the US of A, not a highly suspect Arabic speaking expat that no one trusts) they went to town. Disturbing.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:08 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

June 21, 2005

Roguish Charm?

Among the things I learned from a business dinner last night was that I have, and I quote, "a certain roguish charm." This was both surprising and a bit aback taking. Being paranoid, I believe there is something behind this statement.

That aside, dined with the Conference organizer, afraid I may have been too colorful in denouncing the local American chamber of commerce as a bunch of bumbling if well meaning imbeciles with no connexions, even if true. Very weak bunch.

However, among the issues that semi-amused me was the horror of the conference organisers to learn that even among the business elite here, not everyone has a credit card, and further to that, they can't bloody well use it for online payments because such is not authorised here, never mind getting access to dollars required is also a pain as there's not free convertability.

Bloody hell, it wasn't so long ago such things were a pain and difficult in the US of A, you gits. Don't expect the developing world is right behind on these things, and bloody well think about alternative facilities!

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:43 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

June 20, 2005

Rotted.

It appears my mum has gone and had a bloody heart attack. This is damned inconvenient and moderately upsetting. Hopefully merely a spell or too much of one of her drugs, else I am going to have to fly back, the idea of which repels me. Wonder if I can get away with flowers?

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:15 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Jan-July 2005

Various: Market Frenzy, Dumb Entrepeneurs and Ministers, Iraq

Afraid continue to be rather engaged. Limited time overall, but a few random obs.
(i) Bit of a frenzy in the market here, rumour has it we're going to see a repegging soon. I think they're 25 percent wrong. Not 'soon' but soon. Happen to know the central bankers who are doing the modeling. Very likely to happen. Timing in one year horizon or so is my guess. Sadly my central bankers don't drink, so I can only guess based on their work load.

Else, I am sitting pretty in terms of the currency moves. Quite content about that, although it was mere dumb luck. Of course, on short term currency moves, dumb luck has a lot to do with it. Thankfully for my current consumption pressures, Euro continues to flounder as the EU helpfully provides me with support via its bumbling budget negotiations. I say, "Keep it up mates, keep it up for another two months." That should get me through my distressingly large expenditures on furnishing my house, etc. Bloody expensive. Thank god for the Euro melt down, I would truly be climbing the walls otherwise - now I am almost sanguine in the face of these ridiculous expenditures despite the great liklihood I shall be a free agent come year end. Normally I would be hoarding cash, of course. Women. Bloody women.

(ii) The latest consumption stats were published. Two thoughts there. One, they date to 2000. Really now kiddies, five fucking years to publish your bloody stats? 2 years, okay. Five is absurd. Other than that, they do bring home for me that I easily spend more on a dinner out than the average country dweller spends on his family in a month. It's a sobering thought.

This region needs growth, growth and growth.

(iii) Writing (for free, my heart is so big. Well not really.) a due diligence memo on someone's potential investment in the region. Interesting to do. Spoke with the entrepreneur in whose project the mates are thinking of putting money in. Some thoughts come to mind on this:
(a) When someone "close" to the people thinking of putting money into your project (which is quite simply teetering on the brink of insolvency due to your personal poor cash management) raises questions about your expansion plans (and in particular in terms of priority), don't snub said person with
(b) Vision is great. Profitability is even better. Guess which one means you survive another year.
(c) When you're a foreigner and an entrepreneur in someone else's country, do not, and I repeat this, do not speak badly of and disparage the business sense the newly appointed Minister of the sector in which you are working. This all the more so if said Minister is otherwise (1) widely well regarded for his work since appointment among the locals, (2) from the financial sector (private) and very, very well connected, (3) among the people who turned you down for financing, with the wise advise that you should have an experienced partner. This makes you, not the Minister look bad, raises questions as to your judgement, and frankly is utterly daft as regardless of your foreigness, you can be crushed.
(d) Bad mouthing your key financier, the guys who injected the equity that made your project, is quite dumb. It's more than dumb, it represents a total failure of business sense. Literally no one else was going to roll the dice, so shut the fuck up and at least give them the courtesy of a listen. I know these mates, they may not be better than sliced bread, but given what I see of your skills, you bloody well should reflect on what they're telling you.
(e) Get a financial manager, don't be "surprised" when certain bank payments come due.
[added]
(f) Do not whinge on about business in the region being about connexions and who you know. First, you're in the motherfucking Middle East, get fucking used to it. Second, business everywhere is about connexions and who you know to some degree, and frankly your habit of complaining about everyone to everyone is the issue that is causing you local market problems, you whinging git. In other words, it's more you than them.

All in all, a good project run by someone with more "vision" than realism. If they want to grow this, they have to squeeze out the "visionary" into a "vision" role and get a real manager.

ADDED (or rather restored the accidental deletion)
(iv) Iraq. Odd the mood swings I read on this. Now its all pessimism again. I was amused by the silly optimism that sprang up after elections, and then again in the Spring. It should be fairly obvious this is entirely fucked - I suppose the True Believers among the Know Nothing wing of the right have to dupe themselves (I was reading the Belgravian Dispatch and comments on one of the posts there which included (or was it the link, no matter) idiotic whinging wishful thinking about both Iraq and Vietnam. Bloody morons. Bloody simple minded self decieving unrealistic drooling morons. I suppose this is what Tallyrand meant when he said "And about all, not too much zeal."). Otherwise, I have not much to say about Iraq that I did not say in the last round, it's already in the Logic of Lebanon, no way out until the sides beat the crap out of each other and get sick of it.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:43 AM | Comments (0) |