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June 15, 2005
Iraq: The Lebanon Scenario bis
I long while back I opined that Iraq had entered into a "Lebanese logic" or perhaps more plainly, into the logic of civil war. I've stayed away from Iraqi things of late as I had not much to add beyond that.
Now an interesting report out of The Washington Post simply leads me to underline my earlier analysis (which I shall not try to link to because livejournal has such a shitty search function I never bloody find anything) that there was and is no way out of Iraq going through a bloody civil war.
But aside, the article and some links:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/14/AR2005061401828_pf.html
(If this is not a classic of ethnic civil war, I don't know what is)
Drezner
http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/002118.html
and then in Fist Full of Euros
http://fistfulofeuros.net/archives/001546.php
Now, I reproduce my comment I made there:
I am afraid gentlemen that you're reading this wrong.
First, Edward is wrong on "sustainable" Iraqi nationalism. Arab Shias and Sunnis both have shared and continue to share a common Arab centered nationalism - except of course in re who should be in charge. Iraq itself is not in play in the intra-Arab game, it's who controls Iraq. The only ethnic group in Iraq that actively puts Iraq as an entity in play is the Kurds (the largely Shia Turcomans being too small have not opted for seperatism).
The scenario is not then an imminent break up of Iraq but civil war pure and simple, with four zones. (i) Kurdistan in the north, with a long fractured frontier; (ii) Baghdad central, multi-ethnic and ending up like Beruit, a killing zone, (iii) Sunni majority West-Central, homeland of the Sunni jihadis and others; (iv) the south starting some 60-100 k south of Baghdad down to Umm al-Qasr, safely majority Shia but subject to intra-Shia conflict.
The Iraqi Arabs are not going to accept de jure seperation, de facto may come from civil war.
End comment
I might expand to say I as I have in the past that what I foresee is something along the lines of the Lebanese civil war. The multi-ethnic disputed center disolving into mayhem, the "ethnic cores" becoming somewhat violent but largely stable "safe areas" for each group.
From my own perspective, doing some side consulting (very tangential) for some .... "frontier investors" who are running a fund in Iraq (and well, yes gents you can make money, to the tune of a 75 percent IRR, with ~100 m USD up - I don't ask too many questions though), it strikes me that you could see Kurdistan and the Shia south becoming de facto relatively stable states which might even get investment of this 'frontier' type. The center, Baghdad, will be like Beruit in the late 70s and early 80s though.
Posted by The Lounsbury at June 15, 2005 09:53 AM
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Jan-July 2005
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