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March 15, 2006

A Round Up: Gulf Markets, DPW & Related Matters

While it has been mooted here (well at 'Aqoul in all liklihood, but no matter), that the Gulf Markets were due for a bit of a tumble, this week, perhaps tipped by the DPW dust up, perhaps by an unheard of bit of sense penetrating the neophyte Khaliji day trader..... they tumbled.

Most interestingly, however, is the reactions, not the fall. Picking through the serivicable FT arty "Gulf markets fall amid crisis after bull run" covering the nice digger the Gulf markets took Tuesday and what the journos called " a deepening crisis of confidence after a three-year bull market" we find early rumours of State support to share prices. First some detials, Dubai equities were down nearly 12 per cent, Saudi Arabia equities 4.74 per cent, Abu Dhabi’s 4.44 per cent and Kuwait’s, 3.67 per cent. What caught my eye was "Markets in Jordan, Egypt, Morocco and Lebanon were also hit." Sure enough Casa bourse was down last two sessions. That's a surprise. Well it's overbought and needs to take a break for a buying opp.

DPW was cited by some as a trigger, which I suppose works for Dubai and KSA markets, but given months of warnings that the markets were over-bought, the slightest ripple was set to reset them. What's more interesting, as I noted, is the fall-out and interventions. .

The reversal casts a shadow over prospects for initial public offerings from the Gulf and raises the prospect of state intervention to stem the selling. Intervention may take the form of Gulf countries injecting money from state investment funds into the markets, as Kuwait did last week after investors staged protests.

Emphasis added. State investment funds being rolled out to buy equities to support prices after investors protest.

That is not the way to build a healthy investing culture, to say the least. Nor a way to efficienctly mobilise savings.

Not sure, to be frank, how much Kuwait spent, perhaps a trivial amount, which might be worth it for the stabilising psychological value.

Now one item that amused me was the KSA angle:

Saudi press reports say the kingdom’s advisory Shura Council has asked the government to intervene to prevent a stock market crash, with one member demanding “reassuring statements from responsible officials about the present situation of the market”.

Atlhough this is a sin against .... well something, I have to confess I have a very hard time taking the Saudi market seriously. Above all the breathless commentary that CNBC Arabiyah and al Arabiyah manage over the market. It's complete nonsense, utterly opaque, and utterly Saudi.

We can count on corrupt interventions, in my opinion, to support Royals.

Now at the end here there is something interesting.

Philip Khoury, head of re-search for EFG-Hermes, a reg-ional investment bank, said yesterday’s falls were “a continuation of the moves we’ve seen since the beginning of the year . . . I don’t think it’s a secret that Gulf markets are expensive. This just happened to be the day.” He added that markets might have felt the effect of Arabic-language satellite television channels, where financial reporting has gone from virtually non-existent to extremely popular in recent years.

Although all the Arab media gurus such as Abu Aardvark like to focus on the political, I've personally been fascinated by the slow but persceptible emergence of business coverage in Arab media. Especially the Sats.

Ex al Jazeerah, which still has the sentiments of a 1970s Arab nationalist in this area.

I would love to see more, as a means of nurturing awareness of business and economic issues in the Arab world (besides the political angle which is usually dominated by ceaseless whinging on about how one Imperialist plot or another has taken the wind out of the Arab sails.... (well that's really more of a 70s kinda thing, they really used to write that sort of thing)).

One other note, an open rebuke from a UAE official: US wrong on ports, says UAE bank chief rather suggests UAE officialdome is a lot more pissed off than one might have suspected. They obviously are feeling the knife in the back tickel was not amusing. They lost no small chunk of prestige, both commercial and social. I suspect that Boeing is going to find its sales to Emirates will require harder incentives

Posted by The Lounsbury at March 15, 2006 05:31 AM
Filed Under: Business

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