March 16, 2006
Well, some quick points: Bourses & Chad
The Gulf region Bourse corrective picked up (our friend Secret Dubai has an amusing note on the reactions of the neophyte investors - as fun as it is to laugh, the governments have to take careful steps so as to (i) not destroy the equity investing culture, (ii) not set up a bail-out system that would eventually blow up equity investing.
Meanwhile, the Maghrebine bourses were untouched. Given their rational valuations and lack of speculative hot cash, this is no surprise. Plus, in the case of Casablanca, they already experienced something similar in 98. Once burned, twice shy.
Finally, and I'll link when I find something in English, the Saudis are suddenly talking of opening the Bourse to non Saudis.
So bloody transparent. The "Oooops, well, let's call in the foreigners to bail us out" response.
The KSA government has the mentality of 12 year olds.
I almost forgot, a near coup d'etat in Tchad. That will get the attention of the French. I suspect movement on Dar Fur.
Posted by The Lounsbury at March 16, 2006 04:08 PM
Filed Under: Biz - Private in MENA
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The yield curve strikes again!
Well, who knows?
But what of this -- neophyte investors now do what happened in USA 2000, especially in aggressive Nasdaq securities and recover (perhaps for Gulf due to hopes in Gulf of bailout), drive prices up to near crash levels, and then institution start selling off systematically over several months to years. Leading to a moderately sustained slump.
Posted by: matthew hogan at March 16, 2006 07:44 PM
as fun as it is to laugh
Oh it's more than fun. It's more a kind of wonder and fascination.
Posted by: secretdubai at March 16, 2006 09:31 PM
can you provide a link to the saudi thing in whatever language you read about it in?
if it's any help, I've seen references to allowing expats in Saudi Arabia to buy stocks on bloomberg, source given as al-arabiyya (?sp), alongside AlWaleed pumping billions in - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=afHcxeWJ7vYU&refer=europe -
- Edward Chancellor (google his name + seven pillars) gives some background, though payoff line is arguably a bit hysterical
Posted by: lix at March 17, 2006 10:04 PM
I think banker JP Morgan temporarily stopped the 1929 panic by publishing a similarly-time purchase.
Posted by: matthew hogan at March 18, 2006 01:08 PM
Posted by: matthew hogan at March 18, 2006 01:15 PM
Fly me to the Moon,
Let me play among the stars,
Let me see what spring is like
On Jupiter or Mars
...somebody needs to start playing that in Saudi. Crazy chart.
Posted by: pantom at March 18, 2006 05:09 PM
Look at all the charts - pretty much the same story, all around. Palestine seems to have gone south a bit earlier - maybe on account of the Hamas victory?
Posted by: Tom Scudder at March 18, 2006 05:47 PM
that saudi chart. wow. reminds me a bit of the silver market a few years back
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag792-999.gif (hopefully that gif is static...)