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April 08, 2006

Dinar Trading - Odd North American Delusion?

I was bemused to find The Financial Times reporting on Dinar Traders in "Dinar traders bet on Iraq’s future". Hardly worth an immense amount of attention, but frankly it is puzzling.

One rather supposes pyschologically these things are hard to let go of - indeed it is a well known issue in terms of trading, tendency to hang on sentimentally to positions.

Now the, the story rather makes clear, the retail dealers in Iraqi dinar are the people who have made money:

Chris Papatheofanous was a medical lab technologist with a prized collection of old coins from the Middle East, when she realised that owning some of Iraq’s new currency, the dinar, might be a better investment than the relics she was selling on the side.

Now, nearly three years later, Ms Papatheofanous no longer works in the medical industry and her salary has quadrupled. She deals Iraqi dinar full-time from her home in Quebec, Canada, and sells millions of them each week.

“It’s very speculative, it’s very risky,” Ms Papatheofanous, who runs PortalIraq.com, says.

Very speculative indeed.

Not familiar with the site, I may add, but it rings a bell as one of the many sites set up in 2003 when the "gold rush" was on.


That being noted, the point to retain here is the margins these guys are citing

It also can be very lucrative. Since the new Iraqi dinar began printing in 2003 to replace the old Saddam Hussein-clad currency, people have been betting that the value of the new money will appreciate. Many of those who found ways to acquire the dinar from the Central Bank of Iraq began re-selling them on Ebay and then started their own exchange services. Most have no background in finance or currency exchange.

“I used to run a company that promoted web sites, and now I run a site of my own,” said Jeff Pasquarella, of Connecticut, who sells between 40 million and 50 million Iraqi dinar each week through BetOnIraq.com.

The Iraqi dinar is a managed currency and has been relatively stable since it was first introduced in October 2003. The official exchange rate has remained around 1,450 Iraqi dinar to the US dollar, with moderate fluctuation. It operates on a managed float so that the central bank can maintain control over inflation. The bank holds daily currency auctions to determine the demand on the dinar.

....

Since Iraqi dinar can only be bought in Iraq, people selling them privately over the internet must have a direct connection there or with a trader often in Jordan or Kuwait. In many cases the currency passes through layers of investment, as people buy from suppliers and then resell it, usually at a mark-up of about 30 per cent.

Anyone with the slightest experience in forex markets knows 30 percent is extraordinary.

Well, when selling to fools blindly gambling on a myth, I suppose one may as well go for the sky. In addition, of course, the very nature of trading - rather 19th century really with actual physical transfers and all that risk involved - needs to build in higher margins, although 30 percent is bloody lunacy to cover.

Dinar dealers talk in terms of millions, and 1m Iraqi dinar generally costs a buyer about $1,000 (€828.14, £571.47) Since the currency is not yet convertible on the international market, the money is shipped as cash, in boxes, by courier services. Banks outside of Iraq will not deposit the currency, so those who purchase it must keep it in deposit boxes or other secure places.

“We’re just holding dinars and hoping that this currency will hit the world market and that we’ll be able to exchange it at our local banks,” says Ms Papatheofanous, whose trading company now has 14 employees.

Holding physical currency, just hoping it will one day float.

Bloody retarded.

Of all those interviewed, only this fellow seems even vaguely rational:

“I’m not as optimistic as some other sellers that will tell you it’s going to go up to its pre-war rate,” says Sanjay Madhavji, who runs InvestInDinar.co.uk in Ipswich, England. “But in five to ten years, we should start seeing some changes.”

Some changes, nicely ambiguous.

I note that I seem to recall the dinar trading loons I ran across in August or so 2005 seem to have had some kind of obsession with some old articles of the Frankel quoted here:

Less optimistic is Harvard economist Jeffrey Frankel. He attributes some of the Iraqi dinar’s apparent stability to a global economic cycle that is supporting currencies in emerging markets that have commodity-based economies. The influx of foreign capital brought in with the reconstruction is also propping the Iraqi currency, he adds.

“People should not be gambling on a currency like this that has a reasonable possibility of complete chaos and hyper-inflation,” Professor Frankel said. “It’s not something I would advise servicemen on a limited budget to invest in. I don’t see a tremendous upside to the currency.”

I suppose that was the most disturbing part of the entire dinar speculation, soldiers with limited money (as well as evidently limited literacy as evidenced by the participation in such fora) pissing it away on this sort of idiocy.

Despite pessimism about Iraq, the numbers of Iraqi dinar dealers is increasing. Marshall Donnerbauer sells dinar out of his home in Boston through InvestInDinar.com and said that when he started in 2003 there were only two or three other people doing it. Now he has more than 300 competitors, including some who buy their dinar from him.

“It’s made a real good living for me,” said Mr Donnerbauer, who has earned $300,000 (€248,486.84, £171,457.94) in the last two years through dinar sales. “I’ve sold over a billion dinar in the last year.”

Pyramid type process, squeeze out the excess.

Posted by The Lounsbury at April 8, 2006 04:41 AM
Filed Under: Business

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Comments

This sort of thing sounds so exceedingly silly that it's a wonder Thomas Friedman hasn't written a suitably gushy column about these free market heroes.

Posted by: Djuha at April 8, 2006 10:53 PM

Friedman is trying to come up with a suitably heart-warming anecdote.

Posted by: Roger Bigod at April 9, 2006 09:06 PM

I suppose that was the most disturbing part of the entire dinar speculation, soldiers with limited money (as well as evidently limited literacy as evidenced by the participation in such fora) pissing it away on this sort of idiocy.

Oh, I wouldn't worry too much.

Since Iraqi dinar can only be bought in Iraq, people selling them privately over the internet must have a direct connection there or with a trader often in Jordan or Kuwait.

Jordon or Kuwait, eh? Oddly enough, I can think of another, more direct source.

Milo Minderbinder lives!

Posted by: Anonymous at April 10, 2006 03:01 AM

Worry, not much. But a sense of pity does well up in me. I have some small moral compunction against ripping off total rubes.

Posted by: collounsbury at April 10, 2006 04:28 PM

I don't get what Frankel is on about. There's been a de facto peg since May 2004 (if I remember right, I can't remember when I first wrote about it). The CBI's currency auctions are blatantly meant to tinker with the money supply. I remember them being quite proud when they got the official exchange rate and the street exchange to line up.

Ah yes, here's the IMF thingummy from Iraq's stand-by facility request in January.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2006/cr0615.pdf

"The monetary program is based on the continuation of the de facto peg of the Iraqi dinar to the U.S. dollar. With no net domestic credit creation, net international reserves of the CBI should continue to increase by some $1.7 billion to $10.6 billion by end-2006."

So god knows what Frankel's smoking.

Posted by: waterboy at April 10, 2006 08:32 PM

Worry, not much. But a sense of pity does well up in me. I have some small moral compunction against ripping off total rubes.

What I meant was that I'm guessing a lot of the international supply of Iraqi Dinars is (or ought to be) coming from some clever soldiers with an eye for the main chance. I can't say I have any pity for anyone who's actually in the clusterfuck that is Iraq and loading up on Iraqi dinars as an investment opportunity. Grounds for a mental health discharge, yes. Grounds for pity, no.

I still think that there is a decent likelihood that a lot of this currency is counterfeit and that at least some of the proceeds are going to Al Qaeda. 1) It's a brand-new currency that no one is all that familiar with. 2) It's being sent off to a bunch of rubes in Nebraska who wouldn't know a fake Iraqi dinar anyway if it featured the Ayatollah Khomenei wearing Mickey Mouse ears. 3) These rubes are going to take all this currency and keep it in shoeboxes in their closets until such time as their investment has appreciated by an order of magnitude or two and they can buy their own personal RV. Since this will never happen, none of this currency will ever see the light of day again so even the most brazen counterfeiting scheme will never be discovered.

Al Qaeda isn't particulary stupid so I'd be surprised if they missed out on a chance like this. Now that I think of it, I'm, almost tempted to start up an Iraqi dinar counterfeiting ring myself. Given how stupid it is to hold Iraqi dinars in shoeboxes in Nebraska, sending them countfeit dinars is barely a moral pecaddillo. It's practically a victimless crime.

Posted by: Anonymous at April 10, 2006 11:24 PM

Anon

I would not in any way be surprised if various insurgent organisations were laundering money via US contractors and soldiers in this dinar spec. game. Above all with idiots buying bricks of thousands of bills. As this is effectively out of circulation against the dollars paid, low risk.

Waterboy, strikes me Frankel's comments go to what demand there is on the open market for dinars. Since CBoI is running a dirty peg and managing the band with auctions (plus dollar rationing), his comments seem less queer to me. There is also, of course, with respect to the dinar as such, a risk of demonetisation.

Posted by: collounsbury at April 11, 2006 04:41 AM

Hmmm. Okay, I see what you mean - the way the journo has written it up makes it sound like Frankel's saying the IQD is stable because the country's commodity exporting. And I agree wholeheartedly that there's a risk of hyperinflation, which may be why the CBI looks to my layman's eyes to be sucking up the dollars China-style.

Posted by: waterboy at April 11, 2006 10:11 AM

CBI is in a queer position, strong dollar flows, but lord knows what is happening with counterfeiting and real demand for dinars.

As the IMF documents make clear, the Bank is flying in the dark, in some respects it's a miracle they've managed to run a fairly coherent monetary policy.

What's amusing in some respects is the dinar speculators still can convince themselves of their little fantasy revaluation.

Posted by: collounsbury at April 11, 2006 11:36 PM

If you think thats ivesting in Iraq Dinars dont work, ok, do something else, fine.

If you despite naysayers think its a great idea to invest, good, all the power to you.

When having a discussion about dinars,(or any other subject) sometimes there's the preacher, that will tell the sinners how all wrong they are.

The problem with religious biggots and preachers in other fields of discipline, is that they automatically take the moral high ground. Its just a matter for the poor idiots to understand the preacher.

There can never be a discussion, kicking ideas around, its just a matter for the idiot to understand the preacher. If the sinner doesnt agree, then there is only a one way communication from the preacher. He will tell you what an idiot you are, and the hell that is awaiting you, and because of your intermittent working single braincell you probably deserve to be in the position you're in.

The aparent impression is that the preacher is the lucky one, that has such an intelligence and brilliant mind, that he with his worldly wisdom even are able to instantly diagnose disagreeing people as idiots.

Truth is that when someone try to raise himself over others, and minimize their existence, he himself is the person that dont have respect for others. It's not possible because he has no respect for himself.

In his own mind, other people are superior or threatening for him, and his only rationale is to minimize them, make them smaller, so they wont embarras or hurt him. They are after all capable of undressing him, show him for what he is.

So next time a mouse walks on to the schene, and trying to be something he's not, by inserting, -"idiots think bla bla" , -"Braindeads that wants to invest should..." and so on, just remember this is a person that thinks less of himself and others.

This doesnt only hold true in this discussion about Iraq Dinars, but he will appear in any field of life.

His life is a mess, he knows it, and he falsely will pose as an expert in any topic, trying to pull the same stunt.

What's most pathetic is, despite the pissing game he's playing to cloak himself, people can easily recognize who he is.

He just can't understand that

Roger

Posted by: Roger at May 31, 2006 08:28 AM

What a .... queer comment. It seems to be some over-written trying to sound clever mouth-breather compliant about the post, but rather hard to discern

Posted by: The Lounsbury at May 31, 2006 09:30 PM

you can all do what you will, but only invest what you are able to lose. i dont think anyone has the right to say whether or not the dinar will appreciate or not, i dont care where in the hell you come from. (iraq, nebraska, etc.)

Posted by: gen at September 9, 2006 02:49 AM

What is it with you cretins that you dig up ancient notes offending your desperate belief that the Iraqi dinar is a good get rich quick scheme?

In any case, right has fuck all to do with anything you drooling moron; rather clearly I have the right to say whatever the bloody fuck I want about the Iraqi dinar. Am I right about it is of course a seperate question, you drooling semi-literate git of a gullible dupe; rather clearly the rubbish being pimped by dinar scammers has not come to pass and rather clearly all the issues I highlighted have been proven out.

However, I suppose you rather need to believe in the get rich quick scam and fear contrary information. Typical really of those who fall for such, letting belief and unrealistic hope trump cold analysis.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at September 9, 2006 01:11 PM

i guess you bloody bleeding whanker from where ever the fuck you come from is a dealer of dinar him or her self. you still dont have the right, asshole

Posted by: gen at September 9, 2006 02:47 PM

gen: Sorry, but he does. Our server, our rules.

Now fuck off back to your echo chamber, moron.

Posted by: eerie [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2006 09:06 PM

BTW I note that this entry is result #4 on Google for "dinar trading".

Posted by: eerie [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2006 09:09 PM

good now go suck on each other. you mental midget and get a life. instead of imposing your right winged biggoted views on people. your rules are made to be broken

Posted by: gen at September 10, 2006 05:13 AM

Good lord, what a sub-literate.

Right-wing, not winged, my drooling little troll (and it is a bit arch to be blithering on like that and then use 'faggot' as an insult).

Regardless, my drooling sub-literate mouth-breather, no views are being "imposed" - opinions are being stated. There is a difference. Imposed would be - just to enlighten you - were I capable and also desirous of doing so - forbidding you in an enforceable manner from buying dinar. To protect you from your own stupidity. As a classic liberal, I rather dislike forbidding people from doing stupid things, even if self-evidently retarded. Market and all that.

So, feel free to piss away your money (or perhaps dupe morons into buying dinars on the get rich pipe dream), I simply will feel free to continue to express my opinion you're either a classless mouth-breathing dupe of a moronic rube, or in the alternative, running a confidence game. Either way, a fool.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at September 10, 2006 03:54 PM

good point frodo, now go chase that ring

Posted by: gen at September 11, 2006 01:18 AM

You could at least try to make a coherent response, my dear inbred.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at September 11, 2006 10:30 PM

pip pip govneh, cant you see that the world is laughing at you you stupid twit. do you think you are some kind of intellectual because your of the european persuasion? they will let anyone have a web site, even you. the only point ive been trying to make is that you should only invest as much as you are willing to lose. this doesnt mean i have bought into the idea of buying the dinar. i havent. the rest of the shit ive been saying,... ive purely been jerkin your chain. hell i obviously enjoy reading your comments and shear sarcasum. its the stuff they should put into the gossip magazines. although the dinar has its arguements on both sides i do value your judgement either way. keep it going, ill keep reading. you call most americans unfortunate morons. but remember we arent as dumb as you think we are. i, myself just like seeing you limies get worked up for no reason at all.

no hard feelings here, but if you hold a grudge, then it just shows how shallow you guys really are.

Posted by: gen at September 12, 2006 03:52 AM

oh, you're just a backtracking troll now. Allow me:

My dear hysterical inbred, I am beginning to find your intellectually impoverished diaper-wetting rather tedious. Perhaps you might stop behaving like a intellectually impoverished fuckwit.

Bloody subliterate inbred.

anyway, block this cretin or not, and let's get back on topic.

Posted by: Klaus [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 12, 2006 10:27 PM

Ah, so Eerie has made a Whanking Moron Simulator to complement the Lounsbury Insult Simulator. Now the Aqoul comment threads can finally be fully automated.

This one doesn't feel quite as authentic, though. Limies?

Posted by: alle at September 12, 2006 10:28 PM

that eerie is a clever one...

Posted by: Klaus [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 12, 2006 10:38 PM

My dear sub-literate.

Afraid that was not coherent. Nor even remotely logical. I gather by the spew you're a small time dinar pimp who thinks I threaten your pimpery.

No worries, business is going to hell as Iraq is fucked into a cocked hat, but I am sure you have an occasion to exit before the pyramid collapses.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at September 13, 2006 12:36 AM

what the hell is "pimpery"? as i told you (in case you cant read) i havent invested into the dinar or nor do i sell them. you and your
spam-alot buddies are fueling your own hype. hell you are probably sitting on a whole safe full of dinar and your trying to talk people out of investing so you can reap your own rewards. what do you call a pimp in charge of pimps?... well look it up. and try not to absorb too much of your own bullshit. you guys sleigh me, your evidently ledgends in your own minds.

ta, ta

Posted by: GEN at September 13, 2006 06:19 PM

your silence speaks volumes

Posted by: gen at September 14, 2006 03:38 AM

Yeah, it means I am in a different time zone you drooling moron - not that the incoherent ranting above gives me anything to reply to.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at September 14, 2006 09:43 AM

hey sleepy, ive been out on a crusade trying to get people not to listen to your ranting little hissy fits you and your cronies throw on the internet. cause without people like us you pillow biters wouldnt have a life. grow up and get a real job, like the rest of us and dont beleive everything you read.

sincerly,

your drooling moron

Posted by: gen at September 20, 2006 10:58 PM

My dear utterly delusional git, I am beginning to find your hopelessly naive squeeling rather tedious. Perhaps you might stop behaving like a intellectually impoverished git.

Bloody hysterical witless buffoon.

-- This response has been automatically and randomly generated.

Posted by: Lounsbury Insult Generator at September 21, 2006 12:01 AM

wow, this site has seen alot of action lately (not). did something happen to you guys on your cruesade in trying to save the world from themselves?

Posted by: gen at October 27, 2006 04:02 AM

What are you on about? It's Eid moron, I'm on vac. Or are you of such low literacy you think this little Blog posting from April 06 is a "site"?

Posted by: The Lounsbury at October 27, 2006 12:12 PM

look no one person can say if the dinar will rise or ever hit the open market,there are many real dealers selling this on ebay and other websites,one thing is for sure theres a war in iraq and it doesnt seem to be letting down,people are stealing,killing and whatever else there doing because they cant afford to buy food for there familys,there for the dinar was introduced to stregthen there economy but it has hit the open market,so basically its worthless here but in iraq as we speak its being used.When the economy in iraq gets better say 10 years from now or even next year,people who have bought the dinar will be very wealthy,ull find that there are alot of dealers that do sell this currency and are cashing in!,but im very sure they have a stash of there own that they wont sell.

Posted by: ross at November 12, 2006 12:13 AM

Well, a new sub literate.

look no one person can say if the dinar will rise or ever hit the open market,

Meaning, no one can say if the dinar will be fully convertible.

Of course not, but that tells you fuck all about anything.

Any number of currencies in the region have spent decades non-convertible, you drooling moron.

...there for the dinar was introduced to stregthen there economy but it has hit the open market,so basically its worthless here but in iraq as we speak its being used.

And?

To parse this, to the extent it is coherent, the dinar is used in Iraq ergo it has value. That means zero for the currency as a speculative instrument.

When the economy in iraq gets better say 10 years from now or even next year,people who have bought the dinar will be very wealthy,ull find that there are alot of dealers that do sell this currency and are cashing in!

ull.

You'll, mate, in proper non-subliterate English.

In ten years, of course it is unlikely the dinar will have shown a substantial return - taking above all into account the time value of money and opportunity cost.

,but im very sure they have a stash of there own that they wont sell.

Subliterates, always the gullible rubes who fall for ponzi schemes.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at November 12, 2006 12:51 AM

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