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July 2006 Archives

July 31, 2006

Joint Venture

My joint venture, launched last July is a year old now. An achievement.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:03 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso Biz Notes

July 30, 2006

Sadly Predictable: Transforming Leb Land by Bombing Backfires

The campaign against Hezbullah turns on itself, and American "diplomatic efforts" continue to exist in some strange, delusional world of wishful thinking, where by some magical intervention from on high Hezbullah caves, and again somehow military force magically re-arranges inconvenient political realities. A queer belief system, to be sure, given it is so clearly divorced from reality, but it is the operating one for the US government as it blunders from one PR disaster to another.

[link corrected]

Continue reading "Sadly Predictable: Transforming Leb Land by Bombing Backfires"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:07 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Politics - Foreign Policy , Politics - Other FP , Politics - US FP , Sham-Levant

July 29, 2006

Thoughts on Prejudice, 3rd World etc.

Before turning to Lebanon and the continued idiocy, I thought I might draw attention to an interesting little note by FT columnist Sathnam Sanghera, racist customers who can take their custom elsewhere from a week back.

Sathnam, an amusing columnist from FT, takes a moment to reflect on a writer taking exception to one of his generally quite silly columns, who queerly wrote “spoilt snobby shite”, [Well, that's a fair cop re Sathnam, but it's part of his charm!] helpfully suggested I get back to “India or whatever filthy medieval country [I] come from”.

(I may add the following observation alone, however is worth the column: "“Northwest State Correctional Facility”, beginning with the improbable line “I am a prisoner and an FT subscriber”...." Well a quality paper gains readers in the oddest places)

Continue reading "Thoughts on Prejudice, 3rd World etc."

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:20 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Society & Culture

July 28, 2006

Crossroad Cities: Tangiers & Topless Movie Stars

Taking a break from the All Leb (or Israel depending on jurisdiction) Massacres All The Time Media Frenzy, a quick comment on a well-placed (if sadly poorly timed for attention) arty in The Sunday Times on culture clash in tourism destination North Africa, specifically the historic city of Tangiers, long time city of sin, scum and other fine things that I like.

Continue reading "Crossroad Cities: Tangiers & Topless Movie Stars"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:43 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Society & Culture , The Maghreb

July 26, 2006

Finding the amusing side to Leb Land crisis TV

Inappropriate but I was just cackling like a hyena over the truly silly interview that Al Arabiyah just had with a UNICEF official (Leb by accent) who rather gauchely praised the Qatari grants and aid to Lebanon (on Arabiyah after all, the KSA backed channel) the presenter rapidly interrupted her to mention the Saudi efforts as well...

It was pure gold. Well for those of us amused by such things.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:56 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Sham-Levant , Society & Culture

Economics: Leb Land and Israeli bloody mindedness

Earlier I noted some thoughts on the economic impact. To be developed further, FT provides some more concrete information with numbers on Leb Land Central Bank liquidity.

Rather clearly they are looking at a currency crisis if this runs through August and into September, which seems likely. (Of course this is not inevitable, large gifts by Gulf powers flush with liquidity can help stave off disaster).

The question becomes whether there is contagion for the other weak MENA currencies. Egyptian, Turkish and other currencies could take some serious hits. Possible to avoid, but there is going to be a lot of downdrafts to evade in order to do so.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:42 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Economics

Despairing of sense: MENA and an increasingly unmoored America

I am increasingly despairing of the completely unmoored US position in the Middle East. Between utterly magical thinking regarding breaking Hezbullah militarily and equally bizarely unmoored and ungrounded policy in Iraq (where, per this NYT arty, after 3 years of major effort, the American military is working to "reclaim control of the Iraqi capital"), I am beginning to think, after some hope that Rice was actually rather more competent than I had given credit in the past, that I am facing roughly two odd years of truly complete, ham-handed incompetence of the most dangerous kind.

Continue reading "Despairing of sense: MENA and an increasingly unmoored America"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:42 PM | Comments (12) | TrackBack
Filed Under: MENA Region General , Politics - US FP , Sham-Levant

Thoughts on the MENA Leb Situ

Today I had lunch with an important MENA finance group director, and thankfully a good friend of mine. We had a nice round of chilled rose together, and besides discussing various issues regarding equity investments, FDI and the like in the region, we hit on Leb Land and the utterly - I repeat utterly - Pyrhhic offensive of Leb Land 82 Bis that Israel is undertaking (wasn't me I may add who raised, fuck no). The subject was fundamentally depressing. Working, as I do, for a firm with US base, I am prisoner of every idiocy that the cretininous, and I do use the term advisedly, American goverment undertakes.

Continue reading "Thoughts on the MENA Leb Situ"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Sham-Levant

July 24, 2006

Poodleness Bis

While not my usual remit, I can not resist citing this entertaining and sadly accurate take on the Blair-Bush convo from the Guardian: [link fixed]

There's no question which exchange is most enjoyable for those with contempt for the Prime Minister. It is the moment that makes Mr Blair look like the poodle of popular caricature. Worse, he comes over as a poodle who can't even beg his master to toss him a dog biscuit. It is the same bit of the encounter that has caused the most wincing among the Prime Minister's friends.

Continue reading "Poodleness Bis"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:56 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Politics - EU FP

July 23, 2006

Isr-Leb: A long weekend closes

Well, the imagery is as enlightening as ever on the Sats. The contrast between "Rest of World" coverage and US coverage remains in the realm of bizarre. Rather clearly the Americans have and continue to buy into the smart if inaccurate perfect identification by Israeli gov of their conflict with the US 'war on terror' (itself of course a rather stupid framing, but like the fruitless US war on drugs, sure to provide endless openendness).

Some protests here, broken up by security forces. Cultural events and the like, protestors angry the spoiled elite still want to boogey when 'Muslim brothers' are dying.... Late night variety show interrupted by one judge expressing his solidarity with Lebanon. all the signs that as this goes on, the raw wounds of the region are getting further irritated.

Continue reading "Isr-Leb: A long weekend closes"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:27 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Sham-Levant

July 22, 2006

Saturday Invasion: Isr-Leb Land crisis, Tanks Cross

Today's Sat TV imagery is fun. Nice live shots of Merkava tanks crossing the border into Leb Land. Euro News has video, Isr. indicates incursion, not invasion.... Super TV also on the rockets hitting Haifa.

And the Nero that is the US administration plays its little chanson of looking for "durable" peace after Hizbullah is crushed of course.

On the other hand, the demos in Aussi land were far less enlightening. "Israel's Holocaust" is just moronic rhetoric.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Sham-Levant

Lounsbury Musings - The Leb Crisis & Economy

Some thoughts or concerns without any particular answer at present regarding the Leb Land-Israel cris and its economic impact in the region (ex the clear disaster for Leb Land).

Continue reading "Lounsbury Musings - The Leb Crisis & Economy"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:26 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Private in MENA , Economics , MENA Region General

July 21, 2006

On lighter matters

I just caught what may be the queerest combination of music I have heard to date (that still merits the name music, meaning leaving aside the horrible clownish screeching that Cairo studios put out): Ragga-Rai.

Think a combination of Rai a la (ex-Cheb) Khaled and Shaggy.

Odd but compelling in a queer way.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:39 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Filed Under: MENA Region General , North Africa , Society & Culture , The Maghreb

July 20, 2006

Bollocks - Somali-Habash War upcoming

On the periphery of our MENA region, but with the potential for nasty blow-back upwards, it appears that Ethiopia has invaded Somalia, per reporting from Al Jazeera (Eng.) and from Reuters, reporting Somalia Islamic Courts milita(s) response. Bollocks. I'd like to have a year in MENA & Periphery where I need not suspect disaster was coming. Of course, not to be alarmist either, despite some fevered imaginations, the whole region is not exploding. But neither does it help to have more petrol poured on the various fires.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:35 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
Filed Under: MENA Fringe

July 19, 2006

As the madness continues (Leb-Isr)

I have to say I found these images (a series of which I received by email but one of which is reproduced chez The Times) depressing. Although I suppose that images of small Israeli girls writing death wishes or similar sentiments on shells serves to underline the growing sickness of this entire affaire. As well as perhaps the fact that not only the Palestinians are capable of grotesque acts of involving children in wishing death upon the Other.

Continue reading "As the madness continues (Leb-Isr)"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:57 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Sham-Levant

America, the land of bizarro-world MENA commentary

I sometimes wonder what it is about American media that leads to quite such utterly delusional commentary on the Middle East. Following up on my initial gut reaction, some more thoughts on the utterly surreal American whanking.

Continue reading "America, the land of bizarro-world MENA commentary"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:08 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: MENA Region General , Sham-Levant

On Poodleness and Servility

Moving away from pure MENA commentary, I wanted to signal my amusement with this satirical comment in The Times:

RORY BREMNER must feel like giving up. For years he’s done his best to parody George Bush’s strangled syntax and Tony Blair’s White House poodle act, yet here he is, on the night, completely outclassed by the guys themselves. The Bush-Blair cross-talk, picked up by a lurking microphone at the G8 summit in St Petersburg, was beyond satire.

Can you imagine Bremner allowing a line like “Yo, Blair, how are ya doin’?” into his script? He’d be laughed off stage. As for Mr Blair’s stumbling attempt to justify a trip to the Middle East in advance of Condoleezza Rice, it is surely too cringe-making to be allowed on television. I’m not even sure if readers of The Times can bear to hear it again, but here goes: “Well, it’s only if, I mean, you know. If she’s got a, or if she needs the ground prepared, as it were. Because obviously if she goes out, she’s got to succeed, if it were, whereas I can go out and just talk.” As a bleak definition of British diplomacy and its limitations today, that takes a lot of beating.

Servile, but there is no small amount of truth. One does rather have the sense that Blair wants Bush to play with him just a bit too much, whereas Bush is just a vulgar whanker, but that is hardly news.

So, contra my old CIA mate, some whores still want to be seen with you.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:15 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Politics - EU FP , Politics - Foreign Policy

July 18, 2006

Transparency, FDI & Foreign Groups - Counterintuitive Observations

An amusing side note to distract from the Lebanon hysteria that is sucking us all in.

I'm presently doing research on North African financial groups for a potential new piece of business (my idiot whankers back on the other side of the Atlantic still not grasping the lack of transparency that renders any given piece of research in MENA twice as hard at minimum than in the developed world).

It has been amusing so far to find that despite all our talk in sector about how foreign groups bring best practices, better governance and more transparency, that in the Maghreb -comparing like to like, i.e. listed to listed- the locals are actually rather better about publishing their financial reports than the French groups(*). Never mind site functionalities. Not really surprising, if one knows French banks, but provides a bit of nuance to easy talk about FDI and benefits. Not, mind you, that I am against FDI and all things being equal foreign groups usually do raise standards....

Continue reading "Transparency, FDI & Foreign Groups - Counterintuitive Observations"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Policy & Development , Biz - Private in MENA , North Africa , Perso-Expatedness

MENA Ground, Crises & Lounsbury Observations

Today, for the first time since the cancer, I am back on the ground. Some thoughts about this bloody crisis which I've flown into.

First, as a general observation, despite the rhetoric I do not see this as truly being about "destroying Hizbullah." As Abu Sinan noted in comments on 'Aqoul, replying to Raf Bey's commentary, and I hit on in comments on Tom's "What was Hizbullah thinking?", if Israel was unable to break Hizbullah when it occupied southern Lebanon and ran its own indigenous Lebanese militia there (the confettis of which live in Israel now, see link), there is no chance in hell mere airstrikes and border raids are going to break Hizbullah. And as Abu Sinan opines, and I agree, degrading Hizbullah would simply lead to a replacement. A political supply and demand.

Now, some thoughts about the genesis of the crisis:

Continue reading "MENA Ground, Crises & Lounsbury Observations"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:15 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Filed Under: MENA Region General , Politics - Foreign Policy , Sham-Levant

Adding Insult to Injury

I find that not only has my incredible super duper assistant quit (well in the process) but our goddamned air conditioning has given out, such that in the middle of this fucking heat wave (37 odd degrees or so) I'm in me office in a suit with only cold water to chill me. Fuck it, I am fucking off.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:13 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso Biz Notes

July 17, 2006

Madre de puta

My bloody 2nd just quit.

Fuckers in NY decided not to give me staff bonuses, and she quit.

Good for her but fuck me. I'm never going to get someone this good.

This rather upends me applecart, obviously going to be a bit of a distraction.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:23 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso Biz Notes

July 16, 2006

Travel; Wealth & Arabic & Superficial Gits Pimping Idiocy

On the road, last preps for me home base return. Will return soon to ordinary commentary.

A side note on something that both annoyed and amused me, thanks to Comrade Hogan:
From this silly article Language and wealth.

The arty wonders "Does the language you speak or use help influence how wealthy you are?" in a faux naive fashion and notes that when "When trying to determine why some countries are wealthier than others, economists rarely, if at all, consider language. However, if you look at the list of wealthiest countries on a per capita income basis, you will notice almost all the top 20 are English-speaking, or use some other Germanic language, with the exception of France, Japan, and Finland (however, most Finns know German and English as well as Swedish, and many Frenchmen know German and/or English)."

Continue reading "Travel; Wealth & Arabic & Superficial Gits Pimping Idiocy"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:42 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Economics , Perso

July 14, 2006

UAE shifting reserves to Euro

A quick note drawing attention to this story by Roula Khalaf in the FT, which is likely to be lost: UAE shifts 10% of its reserves into euros.

Continue reading "UAE shifting reserves to Euro"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:48 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Business , Economics , Jazeera-Arabia , MENA Region General

Islamic Banking - Incoherent Whinging

It is not often I read something in The Financial Times that provokes me to think in contempt, what the fuck were they thinking, but today’s arty entitled Banks subvert Islam’s ban on usury by some cretin named Tarek el Diwany certainly did.

The commentary piece, which largely covers a truly superficial and irrelevant ‘history’ of
European lending institutions supposed origins, does put its finger on a real issue, the superficiality and conflict of interest ridden process by which “Islamic” products are being created today. Whatever one’s interpretation of the religious ban on usury (whether you have the economically illiterate if traditional penchant for seeing it cover all interest or whether you see it in the more rational and economically literate light of a ban on abusive lending), one can not deny that the current system which institutions are creating “Islamic” products is entirely incoherent and more than a bit of a sham; or at least that it is ridden with severe conflict of interest issues that are bound to result in debilitating corruption.

Continue reading "Islamic Banking - Incoherent Whinging"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:41 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Policy & Development , Economics , MENA Region General

Leb Land and Israeli bloody mindedness

Some thoughts on this escalating madness.

First, it really is painful to watch CNN fellating the Israeli point of view. Really bloody hell, a bit of critical analysis, not soft-ball questions to Netanyahu. I expect American media to be pro-Israeli, but critically so.

Second, the escalation is begining to worry me. Yesterday I was inclined to think this would blow over, but now the number of (American and Israeli) security types out pimping the line that Israel has to move into southern Leb Land to insure its security strikes me as a worrisome indicator of both American and Israeli thinking in the decision making circles. Of course, the last time they ran this, it was decades long disaster that made Hizbullah what it is today.

Third, Israeli actions while not unjustified are Pyrrhic. They are going to drive a rally-round-the-flag effect and doubtful they are going to generate what is wanted.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:11 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
Filed Under: MENA Region General , Politics - EU FP , Politics - Foreign Policy , Politics - Other FP , Politics - US FP , Sham-Levant

Lebanon - Israel: US Media

As I count down the US exile, the Leb Land crisis with the Israeli over-reaction is an interesting occasion to observe the sheer incompetence, laziness and pandering that is the US media (mass and blog-loonistan).

Watching CNN in particular I was bemused by a truly stupid waste of broadcast time in reading the inanely ignorant blithering of viewers (which was as predictable as it was unenlightening, such as Avi from LI -not an actual name- ranting on about the evil UN, etc.); hardly news unless one had some analysis of the reactions.

The segement on "knowing our enemy" (our? Has Israel become a US state? Bloody hell, a bit of objectivty mates) re Hizbullah was typically shallow, ill-informed and security focused. Domestic US news really is atrocious. Not a new comment but bloody hell.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:20 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
Filed Under: MENA Region General , Politics - Foreign Policy , Politics - US FP , Sham-Levant

Lebanon - Israel: Come on mates, that dance is getting boring

A quick note as me cousins are taking me out yachting in their lucious hand restored thingy, and I am lazily working up to the end of me long, long exile:

The Israeli strikes on Lebanon genuinely surprised me - this new government seems to be running purely on gut reaction and military officer instincts. While Hizbullah clearly has crossed a line, generalised strikes in Beirut are not going to get the reaction the Israelis are looking for; rather I would say hitting the airport and a naval blockade will cause a rally round the flag effect. Pounding the shit out of Hizbullah position in S. Lebanon would have been more appropriate.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:08 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Sham-Levant

July 10, 2006

Updated References - Lapidus History of Islamic Societies, new edition

I just stumbled across this, and might even write something, but I thought a quick note that the A History of Islamic Societies (Paperback) 2nd edition (2002) is out. Well, okay, a few years late, but I hadn't noticed the updated edition. A quick review showed it's well-worth updating.

I also should share that this book is number two on the Amazon recommendations to me:

Distressed Debt Analysis: Strategies for Speculative Investors
by Stephen G. Moyer
Average Customer Review:
Usually ships in 24 hours
Publication Date: November 1, 2004

The robot is smarter than I thought.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:16 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Society & Culture

July 09, 2006

World Cup Final - fucking spaghetti westerns.

I am going to have a heart attack. This is too much to sustain.

Even my JV partner, normally the most anti-French person on the planet (working primarily for the Froggies) is a convert now to Zidanisme. That and the evil Italian cinema tactics.

The somewhat close offsides call on the Italian goal just now equalises for the lack of a penelty shot just a bit back for France....

This Italian cinema... I fucking hate the Italians. Bloody actors.

I can also add that American football calling really sucks. If I controllecd the TV I am watching, I'd switch to Spanish. This ABC idiot really is annoying.

Putain, Zidaine is hurt.

Merde, merde, merde....

Putain de merde, overtime. Overtime. Shit.

At least my JV partner is fully converted to the Zidane cause. Bad Italian cinema was finally too much (okay Italy is playing well, but their bad habits show through).

Okay, no one can deny that France is playing with far, far more class than the stupid Italians.

And this is a great final. Really. Although in my weak state more than I can sustain.

Fuck, this is going to finish with penalties, I fucking hate that, but I feel it in the bones.

Red on Zidane? Fuck.

What the bloody hell, espece de putain de merde, sale idiot....

I have no fucking idea what the bloody fuck Zidane was fucking thinking.

Goddamn. Penalties.

Fucking goddamned penalties. And no Henry nor Zidane.

Fuck. Fucking Spaghetti Westerns win.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:23 PM | Comments (62) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso

July 06, 2006

Faouzet Fransa, Zidane is the man

Zidane, my man, is brilliant. I am content. Will be more so if France beats the Italian scum.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:27 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso

July 05, 2006

Rotted France and Rotted Italy

Fucking Italy advances - bloody actors - and now I realise I have a meeting at the same time as the goddamned France-Portu game. Fuck. Is this a blessing in disguise or am I being deprived of Zidane time.....

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:33 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso

Italy, Bloody Goddamned Italy in OT....

Italy.

I hate the goddamned Italian team, bunch of drooling diving whankers.

France better bloody win tomorrow or this WC will have been nothing but pure misery for me.

Oh yeah. Moment of truth is Friday.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:20 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso

July 04, 2006

Islamic Finance - Shipping Fund: Great for the investees, rather doubtful for investors

This little item caught my eye as a sign of the spiraling search for "halal" return as money pours into the Gulf: Dubai bank sets up Islamic fund that will invest in ships.

Now investing in ships at some level may not be a bad specialist asset class, given a modicum of aging in the existing fleet plus long-term growth in demand driven by globalising supply chains. At the same time, it rather strikes me that shippin has a long history of being a bad deal for investors, and that it's somewhat late in the game to be piling into building this kind of operating assets.

I'm sure it will be a fine deal for those who win the money, at best medoicre given the risk (8 percent return?) for the investors. But the Islamic finance game is getting good at selling this kind of thing. Of course the devil is in the detials, but given complicated legal fictions to present a halal face for what is effectively debt, I have a hard time crediting that the fund will be effective.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:37 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Private in MENA

July 01, 2006

Faouzet Fransa, Out England

New month and all that but I am far more concerned about World Cup at present. France looked damned good today. Why I may have to pull for them.

Some added notes.

Bloody idiots at the bloody cancer center seem not to have made me key diagnostic test reservation, despite me hounding them. Fucking whinging on about 4 July.

Idiots. Otherwise, we may soon return The Lounsbury to regularly scheduled programming.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:08 PM | Comments (17) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Blog Notes - Admin