RSS« Further to Frothy: Business Week notes Lebanon has not scared off The Men in Blue and Chalky Pinstriping | As a rough guide, Xian Leb emails I have rec'd »
August 10, 2006
Lebanon: In a Hole? Dig Deeper
As expected, although not hoped, the Lebanese tar-baby has induced Israel to keep punching in the queer expectation that the same strategy that failed ten years ago (North to the Litani!) will somehow work this time. As the impossibly dim American administration appears to be utterly indifferent (and perhaps unaware) of the damage it is doing to its own agenda, its own allies, and the truly idiotic nature of this conflict, we can expect more clumsy American posturing about "root causes" and some fantastical, magical international peace keeping force with marching orders to lock in Israeli interests without consultation with the other guys with guns. It may be the French are actually self-deluded enough to want to play that role, although one suspects not so much as to sign up for the utterly deluded American "conditions".
Meanwhile, weeks after predicting that Hezbullah would be destroyed in two weeks, Israel remains engaged in 'secured' border villages. I recall some commentators questioned the rationality of Arab perceptions in region that Hezbullah was and is punching above its weight. Well, afraid the questioning was based on the same faulty perceptions as that which led to those two week predictions.
The problem, of course, is that even in back-tracking, the Americans and the Israelis (whose effective positions are largely indistinguishable, such that I can no longer sneer at the Arab language - and Western language - media characterisations of this as "The American-Israeli War" or sometimes "America's war on Lebanon") position continues to set benchmarks that simply will not be achievable.
Punishing Hezbullah and withdrawing would have been a rational goal (and if one saw one could achieve more, well, good, but else, don't set yourself up for failure). Destroying Hezbullah and achieving some magical alliance with Lebanon's weak government that would magically be able to control what it could not control before...well that's pure wishful thinking. Above all now, when quite clearly regardless of the outlet, anything less than opposition to Israel is going to be seen as betrayal or treason. Well, of course, excepting the neo-Phalangist types among the Maronites.
In the meantime, all the regional media are serving up - and this is not a criticism - a steady diet on the destruction in Southern Lebanon, all in the context of an "American-Israeli" war, language that the entire political spectrum is adopting (although one still sees criticism of Hezbullah among the Sunni liberals, but it is second-seat to the revulsion against the Americans and Israelis).
Brilliant for American objectives...
An added thought, anyone watching the American government's cavalier disregard for the Siniora government's painful position has to question the rationale behind being "Pro-American".
Posted by The Lounsbury at August 10, 2006 01:16 PM
Filed Under:
Sham-Levant
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.aqoul.com/movabletype/mt-tb.cgi/2879
Comments
Punishing Hezbullah and withdrawing would have been a rational goal
That would have been an appropriate response to a border incident gone bad—which is how this started. Now I have no idea whatever what the Israelis' objectives are. Whatever they might be they don't seem to be achieving them.
Posted by: Dave Schuler at August 11, 2006 12:12 AM
If you're talking about the 1982 invasion, that at least kicked the PLO out of Lebanon. It was successful in that sense. Of course a side effect of the subsequent occupation was alienation of the local Shiite community and the beginnings of the Hizbollah.
That said, kicking the PLO out, despite it being a large force, was made easier since it was very unwelcome in south Lebanon. Hizbollah, on the other hand, is based in the communities there, and has more support out of the country as well.
It looks like Israel's objective right now is to get someone else to eventually secure the area for them after degrading Hizbollah assets as much as they can.
Posted by: zurn at August 11, 2006 05:34 AM
there is something absurdly funny about USA and France negotiating the peace deal between Israel and Lebanon.
My thought was, are the French deluding themselves about their importance, as in delusions of grandeur? If so, is this transparent to the Arab street, or does it genuinely feel France is on its side?
Posted by: Klaus ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at August 11, 2006 09:49 AM
If ever there was a situation and a set of actors that merited the full Lounsbury scorn...
I remember the whole Israeli adventure in Lebanon from the first time around and recall that is was the first serious blow to national and IDF morale since the founding of the state. Once wasn't bad enough, they had to do it again?
Oh, rather a nice nutshell summary of the stupidity of the Israeli "strategy" at The Thinking Lebanese (horrid blog title but seems pretty cool nonetheless, sane commenters even)
Posted by: Antiquated Tory at August 11, 2006 11:10 AM
