Obviously like any competitive analysis worth the electrons it is written with, one has to start with a genuine analysis of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Bullshit (SWOB - okay I made that up.).

More seriously, a serious estimation of the real strengths of the competitor, and one's own opportunities and capacities is absolutely needed.

Sadly, unlike in commerce, one can't in this instance simply say "Well, that's just not a market we want to be in" - which is the obvious response when one reflects on the competitive advantage of Hezbullah across the board in the areas where the need is most.

I am not going to propose a response in this brief note, frankly I am about to sign a contract to get paid to generate the same, but these are real questions.

Even the case of limiting Hezbullah's advantage is non-obvious as time to mobilise for any governmentally (or in fact private institutional for that matter) backed initiative already starts wrong-footed given Hebullah's local market knowledge, highly motivated workforce and excellent knowledg of its "customers."

However, arguably, US Gov and EU should be trying to win in such spaces - in near term as emergency reaction, they're losers, but longer term resources can be brought to bear. And they can be brought to bear intelligently. Of course, Iraq has demonstrated that the US can also piss away vast billions extremely stupidly as well.