On the other hand, and not without meaning or connexion with the current crisis given the upward pressure on petrol prices, I also had the occasion in driving out to beach land, to reflect on the peculiar incentives that subsidies give and costs imposed.

To explain, here, like most MENA countries, petrol and other hydrocarbons are subsidised at the retail level.

In solidarity with the working man of course, and the Global South as the ninny hammered whanking goes that the silly Left tends to engage in.

Rather overlooking the rather perverse incentive that subsidised petrol and hydrocarbons gives to over-consume, and that the highest per-capita user (generally the wealthiest) benefit the most. But when WB and IMF critique the non-oil producers on this, ah, the anto-Globo Left squeel in solidarity with the mendacious hypocrites and deluded but communicative "Global South" middle-functionary class (as in academics especially, who whinge on endlessly to their counterparts in Euro and American Unis).

To the point, in my first drive out to the beach in question in ages - rather long chemotherapy imposed ages - I noted how urban sprawl had consumed yet more territory.

Now, I am not typically one to complain about urbanisation, quite the contrary, the idiocy of rural life holds no interest for me.

However, the manner in which urbanisation occurs is important.

Subsidised petrol prices clearly subsidise, both by supporting the car habit and in terms of making sprawling construction less costly, urban sprawl and long-term inefficient structures.

Yet, with Israel doing a yoeman job of pointlessly supporting oil prices for the Gulf, the non-oil producers (and the oil producers) continue to subsidise in faux-solidarity with their working classes (in effect, and to boil things down to the truth, a near-term bribe of unpopular "moderate" governments at the expense of long term economic rationality).

The connexion with the current crisis is the degree to which these current habits feed into a peculiar reply of the 70s to early 80s relationship with the Gulf, its own peculiarities with respect to culture, its influence via wealth, and its potentially strongly increasing role in providing capital to the region as the escalating crisis drags on.

Returning to the aforementioned diplomatic party, a few further random observations.

First, I was extremely entertained to have a convo with an American diplo regarding the banking system here, and his naive assumption that (i) the foreign banks were dominant, (ii) they were ipso facto better than the local banks, (iii) that as a matter of course they would drive "reform" (bloody hell the Americans love this word - apparently in American diplo speak now, reform means "magical near-term transformation of the MENA region according to our desires, wonderfully abstracting away from any transitional issues."

I may add that none of the points (i)-(iii) make any sense to anyone with a modicum of understanding of current market conditions. Modicum meaning non-specialist but paying attention. I also note it was the diplo who started opining, not myself. I like to let them whank on.

Building on this, I had an equally idiotic convo with some American diplo or quasi-diplo regarding the evident collapse of the American "democracy and reform" (see supra re meaning of reform) project, wherein said Sr person (I've run into said person many, many times and despite my following contemptous remarks, actually like this person. Situs sometimes produce stupidity from normally intelligent people), rther went on about the virtues of the Mubarek regime (this following visit to Pharoah Land) and the horror, yes HORROR said person's liberal wealthy spoiled cunt interlocutors felt about the prospect of an Islamic revolution. Conclusion, perhaps it was better to got slowly on "reform" as it might upset the applecart - or I believe it was put (a near but not perfect quote, what can I say, the host had Cuban products): "these liberal Arab women were horrified at the prospect of seeing Sharia law imposed and I'm afraid that I misjudged the mood of the Egyptian people."

Brilliant. As I said long ago somewhere on this blog or its predecessor, a long shot from the corner is great if one actually understands the percentages. However, if one thinks one's taking an easy penalty kick percentage shot instead, it's bloody moronic.