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January 2007 Archives

January 29, 2007

Gullibility & Iraq

In reading this article on Iraq from The New York Times on the "Shiite Cult" and the claimed plans to storm Najaf, perhaps best read in context of articles like this from The Guardian two phrases came to mind: "settling of scores" and "useful idiots" - although perhaps "useful dupes" would be better.

I have, and I shall be charitable, a hard time giving credit to either the evolving spin around this operation (which was gone from Sunni to Shia as far as I can tell, and interesting numbers as well) or even the background story. The Shia cult I rather strongly suspect can be rephramed as "Stupid Rivals We Managed to Liquidate with the help of the useful dupes, the Americans."

It is painfully clear the Americans are being manipulated, and sadly, don't even understand-given their impoverished knowledge of the parties and lack of fundamental human capital resources to rectify- who or what is doing the manipulating.

And now they propose to lash out at the Iranians, which will only compound their problems, multiply their enemies and generally confirm an emerging sensation in the region that Americans only desire to kill Muslims, blindly.....

It is sad, terribly sad that the grotesque incompetence of the current American administration has led the US into this dark place, so eerily reminiscent of the Soviet's situation in Afghanistan - including the war crimes and useless, counter-productive brutality.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:44 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Iraq

Pissing Off

Biz trip to the younger half of the Old World, shall be in flight hither and thither for much of the next week.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:43 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso Biz Notes

January 28, 2007

Further to insane bollocks

In a follow-on to my note regarding the insanity that the Bush Administration is engaging in with respect to Iraq, I would like to endorse Eric Martin's note on the situation and in particular his mentioning the Kurd-Iranian connexions, which would in a more rational environment in a government, give pause to the madness of confrontation. But then Martin's obeservation, that it "would be generous to label this strategy as merely contradictory and incoherent, yet it is quintessential Bush administration fare" is sadly true.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:03 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Iraq

January 27, 2007

Fizzy Water

I believe I may have gone overboard in stocking my favourite fizzy water. USD 200 nearly, but I now shall be spared searching for the just-the-right-sized bottle for at least two months.

When one lives in a world of inexplicable supply disruptions, one has hoarding behaviour induced.

Of course, I also did the same in finding a vast stock of my favourite grapefruit juice, unsugared as is the evil custom prevalent in these lands which can't distinguish "nectar of juice" and actual juice.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:57 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso-Expatedness

January 26, 2007

Oh Bollocks. These Bloody Bolshy Fuckers

Every time I think the Americans can not possibly get any stupider, any more completely retarded and incompetent, I am decieved. What possesses them to think that antognising yet more parties in the region can possibly help their sorry asses utterly escapes me - although I suppose in the lunatic ideological world of the Right Bolshevik World this is the equivalent of liquidating the Grasping Kulaks so as to prevent hoarding, as after all if the Kulaks are liquidated, obviously Socialist Bliss will result.

Continue reading "Oh Bollocks. These Bloody Bolshy Fuckers"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:37 PM | Comments (30) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Iraq , MENA Region General

Brilliance

This is about me, so I shall now indulge meself.

Continue reading "Brilliance"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:10 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso Biz Notes

January 25, 2007

On Coordination, Clothing & Colour

A rather trivial, and personal observation.

Continue reading "On Coordination, Clothing & Colour"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:55 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso-Expatedness

January 24, 2007

PIPES

One doesn't realise how bizarre jargon is, often enough, until one has to render it in another language.

Take PIPES. Just had to explain the phrase to someone not an English speaker, took a couple tries before I hit on a formula that clicked.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:35 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso Biz Notes

January 23, 2007

And for MENA

In a busy day of meetings, the news that the US is putting a new carrier group in the Persian Gulf area brought a bit of cheer, like napalm to us all. Except for the US fund manager who oddly was pimping his firm to do Islamic finance offerings.

Queer how tone deaf and self-referential that was. "We should send a message to the Persians...."

Mate, leave that stridency for the other side of the sea. Everyone else is thinking about the sheer incredible March of Folly aspect to this and the likely disaster (given the incompetence seen to date).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: MENA Region General

Biz Dev Bollocks

Exhausted, working madly on massaging a market penetration strategy for some new areas that I have to implement, but had not a jot of input in, have no power to change except on the margins, and which is so entirely wrong-headed I spend half my time thinking maybe I should resign rather than be responsible for it.

Continue reading "Biz Dev Bollocks"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:29 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso Biz Notes

Un-MENA Biz-Econ articles

I am too tired to comment really, but this arty in New York Times deeply irritated me.

Can't a journo talk to one proper trade economist to get it through the fucker's thick head the time frames goods trade move in? And what the fuck the whinging on about Euro tourist prices..... bloody morons.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:28 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Business

January 21, 2007

In un-MENA matters, retarded fashion gits

Nothing in the least to do with MENA or any of my normal subjects. But this piece of utter idiocy was at once sufficiently annoying and amusing as to pull me away from my normal obessions.

Now I know there are many out there who will think I have lost it when I write that a key, new must-have for men this coming fall will be a pair of leggings to be worn outside, not just in, the house, but that was the big message at the debut Marni men's runway show this morning in Milan.

Lost it?

No man who writes about fashion and believes the idiocy of the empty-headed poofs who pimp this idiocy.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:36 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso

January 20, 2007

The Talabani Al Hayat Interview

Kevin Drum posted a question with respect to a news item cited by Juan Cole, on what Iraqi President Jalal Talabani said on Iran - US - Iraq relations.

The article Cole worked off referred to an accompanying article of the interview w al-Hayat (what appears to be a partial transcript of the interview).

In that interview he responds to a question w respect to Iran and Syria:

Continue reading "The Talabani Al Hayat Interview"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:31 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Iraq , Politics - Foreign Policy , Politics - Local , Politics - Other FP , Politics - US FP , Sham-Levant

January 19, 2007

Iraqi Factories Arty

It becomes tedious in some ways to constantly harp on the sheer, mind-numbing incompetence of the Bush Administration (and in its own way, the Poodle's complicity in enabling such), however articles like this constantly remind me of the utter idiocy.

What is most painful is the degree to which this Right Bolshevism has given ammunition (rhetorically, not fundamentally factually) to attack free markets, etc. in a Naomi Klein sort of fashion.

Of course, the arty, on reviving the Iraqi state factories, includes this more depressing note:

There are also serious questions on whether officials in the focus of the United States presence in Iraq, within the fortified Green Zone in Baghdad, are ready to support factories that were seen as no more than relics of an era that American ingenuity and reconstruction were going to make forever obsolete.

I am sure. Bolsheviks live in a fantasy world.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:58 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Policy & Development , Iraq , MENA Region General

And the toothaches

It's done.

Continue reading "And the toothaches"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:48 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso Biz Notes

Two Huge Middle Eastern Stories: One Good, One Bad

Continuing the economics discussions, an interesting editiorial from Al Hayat (English site) on economics changes in region, and the tensions between a nasty political enviro and improving economics.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:45 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Policy & Development

January 17, 2007

Afraid may be offline for a bit

There has been a bit of a corporate coup d'etat.

Afraid this presents some toothaches for me, and much work.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:44 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso Biz Notes

Morocco Economics Blog

Via my amigo Ibn Kafka of the always interesting Obiter Dicta, I found Eco Maroc which for those interested in a fine discussion of business and economic dirt and controversy (such as the State abusing the "competition law" to defend certain (ahem) sensitive interests in cooking oils, etc), not to be missed.

Neither is Obiter Dicta, although it is about law and perhaps slightly infected with a Le Monde Diplo view, but I can always forgive ideological error when it is combined with pragmatism and intelligence.

So, there you are for the French readers.

Continue reading "Morocco Economics Blog"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:15 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Private in MENA

January 16, 2007

American MENA Public Diplo profile

A serviceable article from The Financial Times on Karen Hughes.

Continue reading "American MENA Public Diplo profile"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:47 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Filed Under: MENA Region General , Politics - US FP

Frightened Bunnies

That is what North African businessmen remind me of.

Frightened bunnies.

Trying to put together a deal involving North American parties, UK party and some North Africans.

I get a message today, everything looks attractive, but couldn't I find a French partner instead?

Continue reading "Frightened Bunnies"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:51 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Policy & Development

January 15, 2007

More PE Capital into Africa

An interesting note in the WP Citigroup is teaming up w CDC for an Africa fund covering in part North Africa.

I am not, however, terribly convinced that major bank players such as Citi are the right structures to invest in these markets (quite the contrary, the history of the same is not all that encouraging).

Updated: The CDC seems to be on a publicity blitz FIXED LINK

Actually there are some interesting assertions to discuss re the role of PE in developing emerging markets that one can discuss.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:12 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Filed Under: MENA VC & Priv. Equity

Odd, I would have thought his neck was stronger

But it popped. Messy, that, and very poor PR.

I had the fine experience, I might add, of having my business car surrounded by angry demonstrators this afternoon (apparently of a neo-Salafi persuasion by the dress and scruffy appearances) protesting this event. I was not aware of the head-popping-off (which actually somewhat amuses me at some sick level, although clearly is a PR disaster all around) incident, but my first thought was "this poor sad bastards would have been on Sadaam's gallows, yet they're protesting for him. Useful idiots as the phrase goes."

Iraq, regardless, is become a positive carnival of incompetence all around.

However, the car getting stopped was not terribly encouraging.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:19 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Iraq

Razor's and Preciousness, or I'm so very Muslim posturing

Tardily, but I thought I would share this. Of course I am right, as always, but I am sure many will disagree with my viewpoint but frankly I am tired of reading Muslim [it seems esp. an Indo-Pak non-native Arab speaker disease] writing in English that pretentiously uses Arab-lish translits for religious terms that are perfectly adequately expressed in ordinary English.

Worse, the idiotic responses pretending to tell me how "Muslims" speak about such issues (amusing pretention that), or trying to imply a lack of familiarity - rather than grasping the unnecessary self-segregation and foolish pretentiousness of injecting such terms.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:07 PM | Comments (43) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Religion , Society & Culture

January 14, 2007

Bikini, Burqa and Bollocks - Or Sex & Bathing

Via eerie I presumje, a profoundly annoying article from Down Under lands on a ridiculously and most unfelicitiously named "burqini" in a rather ham-handed bit of pious preciousness for what amounts to an old 1950s style suit with a funny hood/cap on it.

The item which most annoyed, this:

Before the Burqini, Muslim women either avoided swimming or tried to swim in full clothes.

Which is complete bollocks.

It might more profitably read, "highly conservative Muslim women, rather unlike the hordes of not conservative women Muslims [or Muslimahs to adopt the precious langauge favoured in certain circles where Arablishisms are taken to be a sign of peity] who head to the beach and swim without oddly named retreads of pre-bikini era swim wear."

I should note my irritation is not with any woman choosing to wear the queerly named thing, but with the blanket declaration.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:07 AM | Comments (16) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Society & Culture

January 13, 2007

Emerging Markets & Hedges

An interesting item from FT's Alphaville blog on exploding interest in the Hedge Funds world for emerging markets.

It's at once encouraging and frightening as I can not believe that London and NY based funds are truly capable of identifying real value. The last big boom in emerging markets - in the Asian markets c. 97-98 fell flat on, in part, blind piling in by clever people that were (kha) fooled by randomness and taken in by hubris driven by over-estimating own skills

Continue reading "Emerging Markets & Hedges"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:05 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: MENA VC & Priv. Equity

Isolated or Changing Dynamics: Iraq, Sunni Arab, Sunni Shia and the Americans

An interesting article from The Guardian, which focuses on the journo's interviews with some Sunni insurgents, highlighting the nastiness of the evolving civil war, and the queer evolution of interests, such that some of the insurgents interviewed were looking to the Americans for potential support and protection agains the Shia death squads. This is surely a real evolution as other reporting has indicated that in Iraq it is the Sunni community in and around Baghdad that is most favourable to an American "surge."

It rather bodes ill for the bizarre American taste to take on Iranian interests in Iraq - which given the militias on the Shia side are relatively synonymous with Shia militias in Iraq. It is not hard to forsee the Americans having no friends (where friend means "not enemy") in Iraq at all - and worse, the US government not realising nor understanding.

Continue reading "Isolated or Changing Dynamics: Iraq, Sunni Arab, Sunni Shia and the Americans"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:25 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Iraq , Politics - US FP

January 12, 2007

Further image problems notes

Where to start?

In the full basket of bad news, it is hard to know where to start.

It strikes me that this editiorial from the bland Gulf News rather captures what has become a universal frustration in the region, in response to the reports the US is scheming to use the Siniora government to tackle Hezbullah, likely of course but most unwelcome leaking for said recipient. Or the terrible optics of Somalia with the idiocy of air strikes in the midst of villages and the like neither have the tactical nor the strategic effect presumably intended, although they do achieve a brilliant effect of making the al-Qaeda and other opponents of America look spot-on correct in their claims that the US prefers chaos and death for Muslims.

Nor does the raid on Iranian quasi-consular sites, sites duly organized with Iraqi entities help attenuate the image of the US as a blundering, incompetent bull in a chinashop, lashing out withour regard to friendly interests.

It is no wonder the sober Financial Times calls the latest American ... well policy seems to be granting the idiocy too much dignity, reaction then, the latest reaction Surge towards debacle in Iraq and MidEast.

Continue reading "Further image problems notes"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:35 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
Filed Under: MENA Region General , Politics - US FP

Lines

I have made this point before, but after a particularly annoying moment just now at my favourite bodega with the usual idiotic scrum of semi-literate peasants squishing together, I remain convinced one can get a decent sense of economic potential (excluding hard police state situs) by the uncoerced ability to form proper lines.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:08 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Business

Postively depressing

Entre Somalia and Iraq, and then generally the Middle East, I am positively discouraged. Even writing something outraged at the Americans capacity to achieve collosally stupid own goals escapes me of late.

It makes the naive reaction of the US diplo a few days ago sadder and more pitiful.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:07 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: MENA Region General

January 10, 2007

Naivete, oh so naive these Americans who are unloved...

I had lunch today with a US diplo who likes to talk to me for financial sector intelligence in MENA (I presume said diplo gets to write blisteringly interesting cables back to Washington about such things).

I sometimes even get snippets of intel for meself (good to know if a certain firm has been in town with US Emb. assistance prospecting etc), and at least a lunch (although most tediously they can't buy alcohol, bloody puritans).

I was amused, in my convo, to get a reaction of shock - actual genuine shock - when I declined to intro to some local financiers because I felt they'd react badly to a US Gov contact.

(The image supra is from the online edition today of a Maghrebine business daily - I use it here to illustrate merely the image problem the US faces. The topic was business, but the imagery, Sadaam.... Unfair, but there it is.)

Continue reading "Naivete, oh so naive these Americans who are unloved..."

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:13 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Business , MENA Region General , Politics - US FP

Somalia & MENA: Compounding Errors & Bad Optics

I was working on an Aqoul main post on the Somali situ - speculative - and am finding that events are overtaking me. Whenever I have the smallest hope the US will not make some profoundly idiotic engagement, wasting resources and money on pointless muscle flexing (I am not, I may add, against muscle flexing as such, not being a pacifist at all, just against idiocy), the US goes a step further.

Air strikes against villages, where perhaps there may be al Qaeda people.

Well, great optics that. More of the callous imperial monster blowing up women and children in its heartless oppression of good Muslims optic.

If the payoff were real, it might be worth it, but I am have no doubt the payoff is not there, the al Qaeda leadership (taking for a moment the proposition, however dubious, was correct) will be easily replaced, and the sheer bloodyness and apparent callousness will actually generate more support for the very thing the US has interest in diminishing.

Bloody experts in own goals, the US.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:29 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Filed Under: MENA Fringe

January 08, 2007

Emerging Market Real Estate Madness

It is hard to credit that the concept of buying illiquid real estate assets on the AIM market in London is a good idea, but per this FT arty India properties are indeed selling.

I have to suspect that no small portion of the money passing through London into these India RE assets is in fact Gulf money. Gulf is utterly bonkers for RE, and given the exposure to India, in some queer way makes sense.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:22 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Business

January 07, 2007

Globalisation and Wages

A fine Opinion art in FT, by Bhagwati, Technology, not globalisation, drives wages down, atlhough one rather doubts this will sink in - rather easier to whinge on about the cheap labour in emerging markets (entirely neglecting that the cost basis is not such an easy comparison) than to accept that beloved technology advances are pushing developed market wage changes.

Continue reading "Globalisation and Wages"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:12 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Business

Parisian Serving Soup un-Kosher, un-Halal

A queer little article from the Financial Times on the Conseil d'Etat of France decision forbiding Solidarité des Français from distributing its soup containing pig ears, feet and tails to Parisian homeless

I have to say it has an only in France air to it, but gives one a moment to reflect on French approaches to "integration" and a tendecy to favour form over substance. It will surely be an occasion for the Phobics to rail on about "Eurabia" and their fevered imaginings regarding an Islamic threat in Europe.

Continue reading "Parisian Serving Soup un-Kosher, un-Halal"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:46 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Politics - EU FP , Politics - Local , Religion , Society & Culture

Private Equity Giants - Africa & Middle East on menu

I found interesting that one of Carlyle's big hitters cited in a Business Week interview Africa and Middle East as areas of expension for Carlyle.

Of course, if one looks at what he is citing, it's big infrastructure type investments - extractive industries and similar - not venture type investing, but it is regardless interesting that such a Fund management group is actually talking about placing money in Africa and the Middle East.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Private in MENA

Anniversaries

Looking at my blog archive, I note that this week was the one year anniversary of my adventure in chemotherapy.

Continue reading "Anniversaries"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:06 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso

January 05, 2007

The Burning Issue in the Middle East That Will Resolve All Conflict

Properly designed public and quasi public restrooms that can (i) be properly maintained by sub-literate peasant cleaning staff with only the vaguest acquaintance with the restroom concept, (ii) be used for the various required abulatory pre-prayer functions without forcing said devote praying people into odd contortions such as washing their feet in the same sink I want to use to wash me face, (iii) for men, ideally with urinals that are at once functional, marginally water efficient and set a height that a reasonably constructed male can use without untoward events.

Continue reading "The Burning Issue in the Middle East That Will Resolve All Conflict"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:00 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
Filed Under: MENA Region General , Religion , Society & Culture

January 03, 2007

Dubai, Innovation and Congestion - Outsourcing to Low Cost MENA

While it would be premature to conclude a shift, articles such as this from Gulf News re destinations like Egypt becoming attractive on a total cost basis for tech firms.

Continue reading "Dubai, Innovation and Congestion - Outsourcing to Low Cost MENA"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:32 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Private in MENA

January 02, 2007

Arab Reform & Aid - analysis question

I rather accidentally ran across this item that appears not to have garnered much attention in the press to date, Arab Reform & Foreign Aid: Lessons from Morocco (or see direct: the CSIS PDF itself).

Having read it, I wonder if readers think a small Aqoul colloq. might be interesting, playing off of this and perhaps other recent online pubs readers might suggest.

[nb: links should be fixed now]

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:04 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Filed Under: MENA Region General

And I wonder if this is an intefada in Paris

Perhaps it is unkind of me to mock the ignorant rubes in the US who constantly shriek on about "Eurabia" and other Islamophobic hysteria-phrasing, but perhaps if this article was retitled as 'Muslims youths torch cars' (Muslim of course in such context in France meaning most any non-euro descended youth with a "brown-black" racial cast, regardless of actual ethnicity and religion, commonly refered to as immigrant of course, even if born to 3rd generation parents).

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: MENA Region General

January 01, 2007

Impressive Losses: Gulf Bourses knock off 442 billion USD

An encouraging headline: 442 بليون دولار خسائر الأسهم الخليجية عام 2006
, 442 billion is actually some real money.

No surprise in this, the only question that comes to mind is whether the ongoing correction in the Gulf will substantially damage the equity industry in the medium term.

The correction is healthy, and I think will in the near term tend to push liquidity into alternatives, and perhaps out of the Gulf into neighbouring areas, as well as Europe.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:24 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Private in MENA

Happy New Year, New Month, New Year Thread

Ancient tradition, and a new year. The Lounsbury / Collounsbury enters 2007 with rather limited optimism for Western policy in the MENA region, but nevertheless some optimism remains.

Let this thread, then, be my welcome to 2007 and an open thread for comments, inquiries and the like.

Continue reading "Happy New Year, New Month, New Year Thread"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:26 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Blog Notes - Admin , MENA Region General