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January 13, 2007

Emerging Markets & Hedges

An interesting item from FT's Alphaville blog on exploding interest in the Hedge Funds world for emerging markets.

It's at once encouraging and frightening as I can not believe that London and NY based funds are truly capable of identifying real value. The last big boom in emerging markets - in the Asian markets c. 97-98 fell flat on, in part, blind piling in by clever people that were (kha) fooled by randomness and taken in by hubris driven by over-estimating own skills

Is this any different?

Without the links here's the text

Investors are piling into emerging markets, attracted by triple-digit returns - and the trend is hurting US-focused hedge funds, MarketWatch reports, citing a Deutsche Bank study. Last year, in the midst of resurgent global liquidity, emerging market hedge funds outperformed all comers, and their attractiveness has not diminished. MarketWatch says US-focused founds could see outflows of 8% in 2007, in sharp contrast to a possible 39% jump in flows to China, and inflows of at least 13% to funds in other parts of Asia and Latin America.

Africa and MENA are left out, largely, but that is probably not so bad.

Also note:

“[Investors] will have to sell something to go into those regions,” Deutsche Bank’s John Dyment said in the report. “We’re seeing slightly diminished interest in the U.S.”

The US for the first time in decades is in a peculiarly dangerous position economically - not from general economic collapse, but from losing out on its privileged position in global capital flows.

However, while there is a threat to the US in this above, I'd suggest the delicate sensibilities of the Hedge Fund manager used to in and out may be in greater danger.

Meanwhile, the same Deutsche poll said almost 40% of investors canvassed “thought it was bad idea for hedge fund managers to add private-equity investments to their portfolios,” and only 15% said it was a good idea to mix the two.

But investors have simultaneously become comfortable with longer lock-ups, which are often used to help managers make longer-term, private equity-type investments, the report said. “What investors don’t like is when hedge funds unexpectedly begin mixing their regular investments with private-equity holdings,” Dyment said. “Investors get nervous when managers who have historically not invested in private equity sudden get into it because it’s booming.”

Putting short term money -hot money that can be pulled - in long term positions in dangerous markets, hmmm, that reminds me of an equity / quasi equity version of certain events a decade ago....

Posted by The Lounsbury at January 13, 2007 11:05 PM
Filed Under: MENA VC & Priv. Equity

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