« Lines | Isolated or Changing Dynamics: Iraq, Sunni Arab, Sunni Shia and the Americans »
January 12, 2007
Further image problems notes
Where to start?
In the full basket of bad news, it is hard to know where to start.
It strikes me that this editiorial from the bland Gulf News rather captures what has become a universal frustration in the region, in response to the reports the US is scheming to use the Siniora government to tackle Hezbullah, likely of course but most unwelcome leaking for said recipient. Or the terrible optics of Somalia with the idiocy of air strikes in the midst of villages and the like neither have the tactical nor the strategic effect presumably intended, although they do achieve a brilliant effect of making the al-Qaeda and other opponents of America look spot-on correct in their claims that the US prefers chaos and death for Muslims.
Nor does the raid on Iranian quasi-consular sites, sites duly organized with Iraqi entities help attenuate the image of the US as a blundering, incompetent bull in a chinashop, lashing out withour regard to friendly interests.
It is no wonder the sober Financial Times calls the latest American ... well policy seems to be granting the idiocy too much dignity, reaction then, the latest reaction Surge towards debacle in Iraq and MidEast.
To quote
.... The invasion has solidified a system divided into sects and operating on the basis of patronage and intimidation. The composition of parliament is nearly two thirds Islamist. There are no institutions. Ministries are sectarian booty and factional bastions. .... What is still, in spite of Mr Bush’s attempts to dress it up, an essentially military strategy is just not credible. The US army ... does not have the troops to master [an insurgency] on this scale – especially if its own masters are planning to open a new front.It has failed to control the insurgency in the Sunni triangle – a rebellion by a minority of the minority. Now it aims to confront Moqtada al-Sadr, the Shia radical, and his 60,000-strong Mahdi army, in a fight that could set fire to east Baghdad and south Iraq, where British troops could easily be enveloped in the flames.
The contradiction at the heart of the US approach, however, is this: after casually overturning the Sunni order in Iraq and empowering the Shia in an Arab heartland country for the first time in nearly a millennium, Washington took fright at the way this had enlarged the power of the Shia Islamist regime in Iran. Now, while dependent on Tehran-aligned forces in Baghdad, and unable to dismantle the Sunni Jihadistan it has created in western Iraq, the US is trying to put together an Arab Sunni alliance against Iran. This is a fiasco with the fuel to combust into a region-wide conflagration.
The only feasible way forward is the approach of the bipartisan Baker-Hamilton commission – which the new US Congress should embrace and insist on.
This would make support for the Iraqi government and army conditional on their real effort to promote national reconciliation, which would in turn, as it progressed, be rewarded with billions of dollars in long-term aid from the US and Iraq’s neighbours. This external support – from Turkey to Saudi Arabia and Iran to Syria – would be built up within a wide-ranging diplomatic offensive in the region that would include Tehran and Damascus. Mr Bush is instead threatening to expand the war.
“Iran is providing material support for attacks on American troops” he said on Wednesday. “We will disrupt the attacks on our forces. We will interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria.” The Iraq surge is beginning to look like the Vietnam escalation, spilling over into Iran and Syria the way that one did into Cambodia and Laos.
Mr Bush is right to argue that defeat in Iraq would be very serious. He is wrong in failing to recognise defeat is what he is staring at – and that this approach will help guarantee it.
Well, I happen to think like the Soviets by the mid to late 80s, the US has already lost the game. It is merely a matter of whether the US will dig the hole deeper or not.
Frightenly, it appears that the current American administration and its cretinously incompetent leader, Bush, want desperately to drive the US over the cliff in some magical belief this will resolve something.
Posted by The Lounsbury at January 12, 2007 06:35 PM
Filed Under:
MENA Region General
,
Politics - US FP
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Comments
I'd like to keep this lonely post company with a comment, but I've become somewhat apathetic about Iraq, I guess that's how you felt three years ago. Well, catching up then.
Posted by: Klaus
at January 13, 2007 06:08 PM
It is really only in the past year that I began to be apathetic about Iraq.
I was frustrated, sometimes outraged, sometimes enraged until this past year. But the US keeps digging itself deeper.
Posted by: The Lounsbury at January 13, 2007 10:40 PM
The Russians, btw, have begun embracing a stab-in-the-back attitude to Afghanistan. Took them long enough.
Posted by: Klaus
at January 14, 2007 10:01 AM

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