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February 26, 2007

Emerging Markets: PE Profiling in FT Alphaville Blog - Reality versus Sachs (Updated)

The FTcom site's Alphaville Blog section has an interesting series on Emerging Markets Private Equity that profiles some of the key players in the "Anglo Saxon" US-Euro based universe.

Not badly done at all, I would add the observation that those of us who watch such things still are not sure that made the right move in its restructuring to spin off the fund managers Actis and the mid-market to SME focused Aureos, although not from the point of view of privatising the effort. That I think was clearly a good idea, but the precise structure, above all for Actis... Meanwhile the US Emerging Markets Partnership has for reasons I can't quite identify always annoyed me.

Some specific comments on each to follow:

Now that I have had a moment, some comments on specific items I think worthy of further reflexion.

First, on the CDC article, I would l highlight the same thing that caught Shaheen's eye in early comments:

CDC is unapologetic about making money, Richard Laing, its chief executive told the FT earlier this year. The government-owned private equity fund of funds does business in the poorest countries around the globe, but CDC, which started life in 1948 as the Colonial Development Corporation, has a determinedly commercial outlook.

“Being commercial and developmental go hand in hand,” says Laing. “It’s the only way to ensure it is sustainable. Historically there’s been too much investment in non-sustainable enterprises and you do damage, not good, by investing in businesses that are not going to last a long time.”

I absolutely agree. Development money - especially as doled out by the EU - has often been nothing much more the subsidies or worse yet, formalised bribery to the ruling elites to the detriment of the wider population. Wrapped up as it might be in high-flying rhetoric about poverty and the like.

Now, with respect to the follow-up observation


That is not to say that CDC, which currently has about $3bn in net assets, is unwilling to put its money in regions that other emerging market investors shy away from. The group spreads its investments between two broad categories of emerging markets funds: ‘best of breed’, which account for the majority of its investments, and what it calls “pioneering” funds – which address a particular area of market failure, a sector, size bracket or region where it believes risk is being mis-measured with an ensuing lack of investment. Examples have included investment in smaller companies, in early stage mining in Africa, and a buyout fund in India.

It strikes me that the best use of quasi-public to public money in these sort of endeavours is to put the risk capital where the private sector is not going to go. So, in India, why a buyout? I am sure they will see returns, but should perhaps they not target areas where capital is not as readily available. In Africa, sub-Saharan there is a general capital shortage, so buyout or mid caps make sense. India?

Now, here's one of the nice lessons:

CDC’s return on net assets in 2005 was 35 per cent and the group recycles profits into new investments. Figures for last year are not yet out but the group’s five-year average return in “in the high-teens” says Laing. “It is not a venture model,” where a handful of so-so investments and the odd flop can be born thanks to that one extraordinary success. “That is a dangerous model in emerging markets – you’re unlikely to get a significant number making 20 times your money.”

I absolutely agree. In a developed market the venture model of one for four losses is a killer. At the same time you have to have a venture outlook, but looking to be even smarter to get one win, two semi-wins for the remainder of failures.

I've seen that work, and for that hard work, yeah, you get returns that a lot of private money will sneer at; although it all depends on whose money you are managing and at what time frame. A ten to twenty year perspective with the idea of diversifying your exposure, now, well, that makes a great deal of sense. And if net fees in the short term you can hit 20 percent, well, hopefully you have enough investors with a long term vision, thinking of themselves as pre-positioning.

On the other hand, hot money - the hot money that is pouring into "altnerative asset classes" in emerging markets, well it's going to get fucked, just like it was in 89.

CDC places its capital with about 26 fund managers, including those at Actis and Aureos, the two emerging market investment groups spun out of CDC as the company moved away from direct investment. The approach is robust: “There is sometimes a view that businesses in developing markets should be let off being commercial. They have to be as strong or even stronger than in developed markets to cope with the disadvantages.”

On the latter statement, I can not but agree.

Information required for due diligence should be available, he says. “Businesses have got to pass a certain minimum or the fund manager won’t invest. There’s no reason for companies in the developing world to have second rate standards.”

Nice sentiment, but frankly as Shaheen can say from inside, to get to 75% of a good developed market standard, you need to do 215% of the work.

Still, you can often get there at less cost.

There are some differences. Diligence work is arguably heavier – both for CDC when vetting funds that are often in their infancy, and for the funds themselves. Exits, in parts of the world with nascent equity markets and scarce deal flow, may take longer to come by. “Structuring is also really important in these deals,” says Laing. The funds use self-liquidating instruments, such as convertible debt, to extract a return at an early stage. “In a scenario where you can’t get an exit, you are getting an on-going return and your money back, having got a yield on it. Companies learn that capital doesn’t come for free and it offers downside protection in the event that you can’t sell the equity.”

One of the best things in terms of the "Anglo Saxon' approach to development financing as I have seen it is discipline.

CDC UK does not tolerate, as far as I have seen, the utter crap that the EU, French and Belgian development funds have tolerated.

That is to say, making sure that companies are forced to be serious about capital. Serious about "good governance" (or at least "not utterly rapacious rent seeking governance" - let's be reaosnable).

More comment on this series in the near future.

Posted by The Lounsbury at February 26, 2007 12:43 AM
Filed Under: MENA VC & Priv. Equity

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From the CDC entry:

“Being commercial and developmental go hand in hand,” says Laing. “It’s the only way to ensure it is sustainable. Historically there’s been too much investment in non-sustainable enterprises and you do damage, not good, by investing in businesses that are not going to last a long time.”

I remember ages ago when I was trying to push for a more profit/result oriented approach within an NGO's recipients activities. It was met with fierce opposition, because it would be assumed that it was an interested approach (which it was to a certain extent, but what's wrong with pragmatic win-win approaches?). Without going into details, I was given the example of an EU sponsored multimillion euros investment in some Arab country, which, because of lack of study and follow-up, was dead as soon as the EU raised its hands... "and that's the way it has to be" I was told.

Besides my own personal greed and ambition, this is the line of thinking that made me part completely away from the NGO world.

Posted by: Shaheen [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 25, 2007 12:30 AM

From my fellow free-market fundies at CATO on NGOs and government aid, and development.

Thousands of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) derive their funding from aid. Many NGOs, therefore, focus on "externalization" of African problems, blaming Africa's poverty on an unfair trade system and colonial legacy. Ian Vasquez of the Cato Institute observes that calls to massively increase foreign aid look like "giant conflicts of interest."

Mr. Sachs, however, seems to dismiss thorough internal reform as a prerequisite for African economic growth. As he recently said in a New York Times interview, "The poor are blamed for their problems. We say the poor are poor because they are corrupt or because they don't manage themselves. But in the past two years I've seen exactly the opposite. ... The idea that African failure is due to African poor governance is one of the great myths of our time."

But evidence is not on Professor Sachs' side. African corruption has been getting worse, not better, over the last few years. Each year, Transparency International publishes its Corruption Perception Index (CPI). The CPI defines corruption as "abuse of public office for private gain." It is measured on a scale from 0 to 10. The higher the number, the lower the corruption. In 2000, the average African CPI was 3.24. By 2004, the African CPI fell to 2.87.

With the African CPI score on the decline, how can Mr. Sachs claim to have "seen exactly the opposite"? Perhaps he confuses the growth of African democracy with the reduction of corruption. Indeed, Africa today has more democracy than ever before. Between 1960 and 2004, Africa had 198 leaders. Only one, the prime minister of Mauritius, was voted out of office between 1960 and 1989. Things changed thereafter. Between 1990 and 2004, 23 African heads of state were voted out of office.

The spread of democracy enables more Africans to vote corrupt governments out of office, and that surely is a step in the right direction. Unfortunately, elected officials' behavior in power has not appreciably changed. Many Africans continue to see participation in the government as a means of becoming wealthy, and weak institutions allow them to succeed.

Posted by: matthew hogan at February 25, 2007 03:03 PM

"The poor are blamed for their problems. We say the poor are poor because they are corrupt or because they don't manage themselves. But in the past two years I've seen exactly the opposite. ... The idea that African failure is due to African poor governance is one of the great myths of our time."

This doe-eyed victims speech really gives me itches.

Posted by: Shaheen [TypeKey Profile Page] at February 25, 2007 08:13 PM

Sachs represents the utter worst of the earnestly gullible idealist whankers of the center-left living in an idealised world of abstractions.

I shall try to react to your Cato quote soon - always have liked them as intellectually honest (sometimes as bit blinkered sometimes). Start contrast to the drooling Right Bolshies of the AEI.

Posted by: The Lounsbury at February 26, 2007 12:22 AM

Very interesting entry L. - I've had a quite a few things to say before the entry got cold, but I got swallowed myself in preparing some interesting business deals and have a f***ing flu... So for whatever is left running among my neurons:

India?

Right, this one too caught my eyes. It might be the distortion of professional familiarity, but India seems to me even less risky than China. That they might classify it on par with Africa for example sounded a bit surreal.

to get to 75% of a good developed market standard, you need to do 215% of the work.

I've done some reading in organizational theory since your last entry about the issue. I've got a few ideas by now, most theoretical of course and need to be tested against practice, but some might prove to be useful. I'll write something about it as soon as I get my head out of the water.

Posted by: Shaheen [TypeKey Profile Page] at March 4, 2007 07:22 PM

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