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August 2007 Archives
August 29, 2007
Idiotic Headline: Turk With Islamic Ties....
Frankly, this headline is inexcusably idiotic: Turk With Islamic Ties Is Elected President.
It's like bloody writing, American with Christian ties...
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:45 PM
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MENA Region General
August 27, 2007
Developing Private Markets, Promoting Growth etc: US & Iraq, how to fail miserably all around
In reading this article from the Washington Post entitled most charmingly, "U.S. Falters In Bid to Boost Iraqi Business, Few Products Sold To American Firms" I confess to having been a bit taken aback.
Just when I think the Americans can show no greater depth of utter incompetence in Iraq, along comes something new. What possessed the idiots in Baghdad to think they could get Iraq exporting directly to the United States when functioning emerging market economies have trouble penetrating with companies run by people actually skilled in... well commerce, well it utterly escapes me. The sheer incredible unrealism involved in these efforts is truly stunning.
Now, as context, I would like to share some rants (of many) on Iraq and economic development from 2003, a period I would remind readers where I was actively still working on a major equity investment in Iraq that thankfully never went ahead. I can thank the American occupation authority, the infelicitously named "CPA," for having saved me the losses that would have followed had they been competent enough to respond in a timely fashion to our various efforts. They were not, so no investment, and now four years later all involved thank their lucky stars.
But regardless, the historical review:
1) Encore Ideology over practicality, 5 August 2003;
2) Bring on the Clowns - CPA as circus, 24 August 2003;
3) Iraq and Responsibility 1 September 2003;
4) On Iraq & the Privatization "Rules" 29 September 2003;
5) Iraq Reconstruction: Stunning Political Idiocy, Stunning Miserliness and Stupidity;
6) Iraq: Economic Reforms Analysis 2 October 2003;
(7) Iraq: an analytical piece of interest
Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:29 PM
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Biz - Private in MENA
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Iraq
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Politics - US FP
August 26, 2007
Risk Taking and Egypt (Umm ad-Dunya, example to the Arab world ... or simply easy place for Anglo Journos to do interviews....)
Perhaps the start of a small, tradition, commenting on stupid IHT articles, although to be fair Egypt searches for a balance that rewards risk-takers while valuing the past is an AP article and not without interest as a discussion of evolving business culture... or aspirations of evolving business culture.
Some reactions or thoughts then on Risk Taking
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:45 AM
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Biz - Private in MENA
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Egypt
August 22, 2007
That whole risk dispersion thing
Well, I guess my gut that credit risk is like a baloon... well I feel better about it.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:13 PM
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Business
August 17, 2007
Terror & Credit
It's a sad statement that only our newsroom alerted me to the fact that the very week I opposed in Casa a retard decided to undertake to blow himself up, in a sad attempt to commit a suicide bombing perhaps indicative of a wider plot, whose perhaps only edifying result is to suggest that Moroccans inclined to suicide bombing are incompetent idiots. I have been rather more obsessed with the unwinding of over-leverage (and by extension possible implications for myself, but who is not without sin?
Continue reading "Terror & Credit"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:43 AM
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Biz - Private in MENA
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Business
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Economics
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The Maghreb
August 16, 2007
The Evils of Government
When one works in emerging markets, above all in direct investment - none of the silly portfolio investment in stable listed firms - one brims over with examples of why government licensing in emerging markets is a general evil.
Here is one live example, from a start up: going to company registry - the so-called "one stop shop" (of subliterate paper-pushing parasites) that pretends to have the authority to review corporate bylaws, the no doubt literature major hired to absorb the flood of useless graduates from the state universities, refused to accept the by-laws with a 331/3 division between the founders. Didn't add up to 100% claimed the sub-literate. After much arguing the said entrepreneurs were forced to change the bylaws. By one little cretin with the maths skills of ... well a literature major.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:07 PM
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Perso Biz Notes
Credit credit credit
Sorry all, I am afraid this little credit storm, while necessary at some level is beginning to impact me life. I confess at first I rather shrugged this off, thinking, "ah those wild fools in the Hedge Funds will be properly spanked, no worries."
Continue reading "Credit credit credit"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:19 PM
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Perso Biz Notes
August 15, 2007
And as requested, a comment on Morocco IHT arty
Somewhere in comments someone asked for my thoughts on this arty from 8 August IHT about Morocco or rather Casablanca.
Well, some caution is advised here.... for reasons I am sure you can divine.
My reaction is "fluff and buggery."
Continue reading "And as requested, a comment on Morocco IHT arty"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:39 PM
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The Maghreb
MENA & Credit Crunches, further thoughts
This interestingly timed article in the FT on the sharp rise in Islamic bond issuances provoked some thought, in conjunction with FT REPORT - FT FUND MANAGEMENT: Gulf pensions law promises a bonanza for fund managers from 13 August.
Although the arty has Humphrey Percy, chief executive of the Bank of London and the Middle East, London’s second biggest wholesale Islamic bank, saying “The growth of the sukuk market is a result of far greater knowledge about Islamic finance and much readier acceptance of sukuk as an investment vehicle.” I rather think it's a picture that looks more like CDOs before the tires got kicked this month, insofar as Sukuks haven't been stress tested in reality.
However, the plausible deniability, the lack of clarity and funky issue of "rating" (which frankly I think the rating agencies have become so lax as to make almost fictional)... all strike me as likely to fuel a boom. Liquidity flowing off, non-transparent funds....
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:03 PM
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Biz - Policy & Development
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Biz - Private in MENA
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Business
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MENA Region General
MEMRI Econ blog?
Ran across this by accident semi-bland post on sov funds that because I have no confidence in anything MEMRI as non-agit prop, makes me wonder.
I suspect that there will be a follow-up on the potential evils of the Arab Sov Funds.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:04 PM
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Biz - Private in MENA
August 10, 2007
Lounsbury on Credit Crashes & MENA
I shall readily confess that while I can make some claim to accidental prescience with respect to the great Hedge Fund popping, in my attention to explosions and hedge funds, I do not truly feel I know more than your average financial fool. Which is to say, who the bloody fuck knows where this credit business is going. Nor whether the hidden iceberg of derivatives and all their black-box models will rip open the guts of a big money centre bank or not; i.e. is that just-so-tale of derivatives spreading risk around so no-one has a deadly exposure right, or merely just-so...
That aside, presuming that this moment is a nice little slap up-side the financial markets head, and the real economy is not effected, it's a good moment to squeeze out some insanity and get people thinking about risk more reasonably (as well as realising the fancy hedge fund 'hedging' is mostly a load of bollocks and luck).
Both those abstractions aside, a question in comments about my thoughts on the impact on MENA. Well, my instinct is that some portion of capital that previously was looking for emerging markets return will pull back. But then, the blow up is occurring in fancy-schmancy financial alchemy land (US of A), not in emerging markets, so... to what degree is more rational risk pricing going to effect looking at them. Dunno. But there is lots of Gulf liquidity sloshing about.
Continue reading "Lounsbury on Credit Crashes & MENA"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:01 PM
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Biz - Private in MENA
August 08, 2007
The Madness of King George: or Americans Chicken Little Approach to Travel Security
This bit of news positively incensed me: The new Smoot Haley: Transatlantic travellers on 48-hours notice to US. What the bloody hell is wrong with America? Bloody cowardice, chicken littlism.
And it is no surprise:
“Obviously, it’s a big inconvenience” said Filippo Pandolfini, a London-based investment banker at JPMorgan, referring to the 48-hour measure. “You never know when you have to travel for business, plans can change”. He later added that many would support the measure if it helped shorten queues at immigration on arrival.Visits to the US from countries other than Canada and Mexico have fallen 17 per cent since 2000, in spite of a 20 per cent increase in cross-border travel elsewhere in the world.
While part of me rather does hope the EU does in fact have the balls to retaliate to this monstrous idiocy by imposing the same kinds of idiocy, the better part of me says that given comments like this:
Russ Knocke, spokesman for the Department of Homeland Security, said the US was “comfortable” with the EU having a reciprocal system. “It would lend itself to increasing baseline security for air travel throughout the west,” he saidthe wilting shrieking cowards in America will take hermetically sealed borders behind which they can cower as a good thing.
Rather the EU should profit from American idiocy and see more business shift out of the US and overseas.
I can only imagine how London would have developed if after a few IRA bombings, however bloody, the UK had shut down travel from America - on the real threat of Irish American support to the IRA murderers.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:46 AM
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Business
August 03, 2007
New Month, Old Tradition - August 2007 Edition
Again, almost let this slide. But as I am committed to the tradition, my new month open note.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:30 PM
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Blog Notes - Admin
Gulfies and Berberism versus Salafism (a trivial and somewhat boring story from the 10e)
An amusing, for me at least, conversation witnessed in the 10e arrondissement yesterday at a bodega / dukkan / epicerie shop run by a Chleuh. Myself, waiting to buy my mineral water and afternoon yoghurt snacks.
A unkept beardy type salafi sort from (by accent I am guessing the origins) some aroubi backwoods place such as KSA or Yemen buying groceries from your typical round-headed dorky looking Chleuh shopkeeper. As it is clear the aroubi fellow speaks piss-poor French, and the shopkeeper no English, they use Arabic. Of course the shopkeeper uses derridja, and our aroubi fellow rather more formal Arabic.
For reasons that entirely escaped me the buying of a certain article (some leben nastiness) involved a really stupid exchange about quantity, price, blah blah. I confess I hardly paid attention as I was merely annoyed at being held up. But he is my favourite shopkeeper, and it's not his fault the googly eyed unkept bearded aroubi fellow is tedious.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:21 AM
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MENA Region General
