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October 2007 Archives

October 27, 2007

Bang, bang goes petrol

The US administration is queerly talented in enriching its enemies while engaging in pointless, self-defeating particularly nuisible form of extra territorality in its unilateralism.

I don't know that I could put it better than Stephens: "the White House once again seems hell-bent on being outwitted in the court of global opinion; and, maybe, on making a strategic miscalculation that could make the war in Iraq look like a sideshow."

Regardless, while dealing with big international money center banks has its efficiencies, there is other non-transparent sources of financing, and while perhaps less skilled, their equally non-transparent friends in Dubai's 2nd to 3rd tier operators can get by.

I am merely happy to have a new found interest in likely benefiting parties.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:18 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Business , MENA Fringe , MENA Region General , Politics - US FP

October 24, 2007

Personal Assistance: new phones

Well, I killed me fancy schmancy but now dated phone. Apparently hurling a phone across a conference room into a faux-granite whatever does bad things to it. As satisfying as that was at the moment -given the staggeringly stupid thing home did to me.

So, any observations on PDA-Phones? Recalling the following points:
(i) I have a tendency to treat things badly, so pricing should be in the <400 USD range, as I feel badly destroying truly expensive things,
(ii) Given travel and other restrictions, as well as basing, internet orders and the like is right out. Something likely to be found in the open market,
(iii) data portability, I really dream of having something that syncs without headaches to me laptop.

So, readers recommendations on durable, mid-price point ranged PDA phones with Windows capability and likely available in the various emerging markets I am constantly bouncing around in, and above all having real road warrior capacity to work with every dodgy network out there....

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:18 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso

Thinking of predictions

In cleaning up my hard drive I stumbled across some saved texts from my old discussion board days, about Iraq. 2002, to think I was thinking the Iraq fiasco would merely be slightly incompetent and a kind of Cairo on the Euphrates regime would emerge.

Now such a result would have to be characterised as a stunning reversal of negative trends. I wonder if I ever posted the text I wrote.... Anyone around from those days who can still access?

Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:14 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Iraq

Bullet points

I am told today by my staff that I talk in bullet points.

This worries me:
(i) I am not sure it is true
(ii) If it is true, why should they care....

Hmmm

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:24 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso

October 22, 2007

Sometimes predictions work.

I am moderately pleased to note that that my thesis that emerging markets might prove a "safe haven" this round seems to be proving out and in flighty areas with:

For the third week in a row, emerging market equity funds absorbed more than $5bn (£2.4bn, €3.5bn) as investors continued to bail out of underperforming developed market asset classes and head for cash, emerging markets, or, to a lesser extent, commodities such as gold, said EPFR Global , which tracks fund flows.

Since the fourth week in August investors have put almost $24bn in emerging funds, more than $28bn in money market funds and $895m in commodity sector funds.

As I said back in my August note, the problems in structured finance stabbed developed market advantages in the heart.

At the same time, I don't think this is sustainable in listed markets, and moving the money to private markets - venture funds and private equity funds requires identifying rare skills... But on the other hand, investors have been pouring into China on faith alone, so....

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:42 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Private in MENA

Conference Call Idiocies: "So they're reformers?"

I hate conference calls with morons in North America. Bloody pants wetters wanted me to give them a run down of the investment situation in Maghreb, and in particular the "Democratic Developments" in Morocco.... (as well as the situation re Algeria and Libya).

Best question of the whole bloody fucking call: "So with a democratic reformer like the new Prime Minister, do you see opportunities picking up?" [in Morocco]

Reformer? I have no idea what this politically connected bloody crack-smoking fool was on about, but he should never be let near anyone's capital, that is for sure. It was a struggle to respond politely.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:10 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Private in MENA , The Maghreb

October 16, 2007

A Fat Lady Clears her throat

With a non-trivial USD 69 billion bit of ha.

The Treasury International Capital report, known as the TIC, on Tuesday revealed that net sales of US market assets, including bonds, notes and equities were $69.3bn in August after a revised inflow of $19.5bn during July. The scale of the outflow exceeded the previous record decline of $21.2bn set in March 1990.

Continue reading "A Fat Lady Clears her throat"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:06 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Business

October 11, 2007

New Dubai Canal: 11 billion for a new inland desert waterfront

I am not quite sure if this is brilliance or madness, but it certainly is a waste of capital of epic proportions.

Meanwhile, I read a snotty remark in one of the Maghrebine financial journals questioning whether many of the Big Ticket Gulfie investment projects were in fact serious, or mere PR incidents to drive their home market stock price.

And I say "Some Gulf Firms making Vapour Ware Project / Investment Announcements???" Perish the thought. I think the better standard is assume it's fictitious until the money is in an account on shore.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:35 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Private in MENA

October 10, 2007

Amusingly

As fun as the typical response to the Hidjab note is (oh so predictable, anything touching on women...), I was most engaged in in correcting fruitlessly the fevered response to K. Drum's illiteracy regarding private equity.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:53 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Business

October 08, 2007

Emerging Markets Sexy, sexy, sexy... Dubai rah rah ... overbought

Something about the HSBC move to open a brokerage in the Gulf aimed at international portfolio investment struck me as just not the great news that say the typical Gulf paper coverage would pimp it as. Of course, there is no bad news in the Gulf. Merely rumours of bad news, whispered or blogged (rarely).

HSBC is to become the first international bank to launch its own brokerage services in the United Arab Emirates to satisfy growing international interest in accessing these booming oil-backed economies.

The new firm, HSBC Middle East Securities, will offer institutional investors access to the Abu Dhabi Securities Market and the Dubai Financial Market, which are jointly capitalised at more than $165bn, opening to retail investors next year.

“The Middle East is increasingly valuable and important to investors,” said Neil Foster, HSBC’s head of global markets for the Middle East, and chairman of HSBC Middle East Securities.

Record oil prices continue to underpin the booming economy of the UAE and other Gulf states, with international investors increasingly shrugging off concerns about poor corporate governance as they identify value in some listed companies on these exchanges – which lost up to 50 per cent last year after the stock market crash in the region.

Hedge funds are particularly interested in Middle Eastern markets, because of the perception that the oil-rich Gulf is relatively sheltered from the credit squeeze and runs on a different cycle to global markets. Within the Gulf, the UAE’s markets are most favoured by international investors. Dubai and Abu Dhabi boast enough companies that are open to foreign investment, while other markets – such as regional giant Saudi Arabia – are still relatively closed. HSBC has offered UAE brokerage services via third parties.

What I am all in favour of the argument that the US credit crisis exposed some clay feet, "shrugging off" mediocre governance standards and paying high prices for limited publicly traded paper....

I seem to recall rewinding about 15 years something similar.

A fine way to lose money really. Again, there is value in emerging markets but public paper is thin, and... hot money is oft dumb.

Continue reading "Emerging Markets Sexy, sexy, sexy... Dubai rah rah ... overbought"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:58 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Private in MENA

"Islam is..." loony whanker

This loony whanker actually thinks our bloody blog robot (for which I have no love) linked to his bizarre Islam is War sillinness. Well, here is some news. Aqoul did not. A robot did. And frankly mate, your bloody religious bigotry is of no more interest than any other. Islam is X, Xianity is Y, blah blah blah.

Pox on the lot of lunatics.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:24 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Blog Notes - Admin

October 07, 2007

US of A: Bizzaro World Provincialism

I confess I have never understood the shrieking fear of "foreign" that grips the US now and again: but above all in that strange mixture on the US right of Liberalism and Paranoia. The bizarre Ron Paul, "Libertarian" - sadly not really a synonym for classic liberalism in the US, but some strange mixture of Know Nothingism, petite bourgeois pseudo liberalism and just outright bizarre paranoia [fixed the bloody link you whingers]

Amero?

In any case, I think my somewhat leftish centre friends at Fistful of Euros have a point linking this strange fear and paranoia regarding treaties with the current Administration's approach. I have to suspect (although this is really Hogan material) some connexion.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:31 PM | Comments (12) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Society & Culture

October 04, 2007

Stalin, America's Mouallim in Torture

We are become a reproach to our neighbours, a scorn and derision to them that are round about us:

With virtually no experience in interrogations, the C.I.A. had constructed its program in a few harried months by consulting Egyptian and Saudi intelligence officials and copying Soviet interrogation methods long used in training American servicemen to withstand capture.

So, the US decided to copy the Sons of Stalin in their approach to winning over the Islamic world and fighting terror. It is grotesque what the current American administration has done to the Americans' reputation, and more grotesque that the Right Bolsheviks turned to the Left Bolsheviks for lessons. Afghanistan of the Soviets and Algeria of the French evidently taught no lessons.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:06 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Politics - US FP

October 03, 2007

Sov Funds, Petrodollars

I believe I display no great prescience in returning to my prediction that Arab Gulf State Sovereign investment funds (state investment funds) will be an emerging scare issue from the same crowd that brought you Dubai Ports World and other silliness.

Rather like a more charged replay of the Japan Inc scaremongering, but with extra xenophobia thrown in.

Continue reading "Sov Funds, Petrodollars"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:49 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Policy & Development

On Credit - Wolf

A quick recommendation to read Martin Wolf's column on the credit "wrinkle" and securitisation in FT

Quite good, although I am personally not particularly enamoured of securitisation in practice, but his parallel to junk bonds is good. Somewhat interestingly, I am pleased that my suggestion that emerging markets would hold up as a sort of counter-intuitive safe haven has played out fairly well.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:14 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Business

The return of the anti-globalization anti-market twits

I believe I may have to return to my old hobby of whacking anti globo idiots, as it is sad that someone at Foreign Policy (even an idiot blogger) can write "[Naomi the financially and economically illiterate scare mongering idiot] Klein has produced some trenchant criticism of free-market orthodoxy in the past and she should not be dismissed offhand.

Bollocks. She's produced semi-literate "cultural criticism" (i.e. ignorant emoting) trash recycling the lamest of fuzzy-headed "humanities Leftism."

Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:45 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Economics

October 01, 2007

The Face of American Diplomacy

Ladies, Gentlemen: I give you the modern face of American diplomacy. And no, this is in fact actual, not a joke.

Ms Debra Cagan at the Embassy of Hungary most charmingly told UK MPs she really dislikes Iran and oh, official policy is no attack, except wink wink...

Or as the Daily Mail (yes, yes, I know...) put it:

"She seemed more keen on saying she didn't like Iranians than that the US had no plans to attack Iran," said one MP. "She did say there were no plans for an attack but the tone did not fit the words."

Another MP said: "I formed the impression that some in America are looking for an excuse to attack Iran. It was very alarming."

Tory Stuart Graham, who was on the ten-day trip, would not discuss Ms Cagan but said: "It was very sobering to hear from the horse's mouth how the US sees the situation."

I submit to you that no person willingly photographed in such an outfit at a diplo reception should be allowed anywhere near policy making or indeed out of the festering provincial suburb from which they crawled. A clear case of demonstrable bad judgment capacity.

[Update]

And the Walrus enters into the action: John Bolton, the former US ambassador to the United Nations, told Tory delegates today that efforts by the UK and the EU to negotiate with Iran had failed and that he saw no alternative to a pre-emptive strike on suspected nuclear facilities in the country.

These people, they are actually mad. Truly, literally mad.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:40 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Politics - US FP

New Bloody Month

And I am in a crisis so fuck off.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Blog Notes - Admin

Bollocks, bollocks, bollocks, bloody quitting on me

Me bloody number two just up and quit today. Bastid. Whinging on about long hours and blah blah. Says he's taking a government job that is more human.

Well, this gives me the opportunity to slash costs - overpaid bastard got far too many raises from my idiot predecessor - and hire some young nubile creature who'll work twice as hard for half the pay (and regardless of half the experience No.2 was so bloody governmental in his approach to work, I should be in for a 50% gain in productivity).

This does, however make me doubly fucked on bailing out problems and keeping things moving.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:25 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso Biz Notes