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November 2007 Archives

November 18, 2007

MENA, Oil, Pricing, Dollars

I should discuss this on the main page, but first some initial thoughts.

I have no clue - for all MENA - OPEC seems to be playing a price max game that suggests to me they think they will have a demand decline over the 5-10 yr frame and want to max current revenues.

At the same time, non-OPEC MENA is suffering - although appears to be getting ore investment via petro-dollars. This is very hard to track, as there are "PR Announcements" by the Khalijis that often are .... vapour dollars ... then there are the monies they invest via other vehicules that are non-PR.....

There is also the "green" or alt Energy opp... and frankly this is the wild wild wild west. But for some portions of MENA with good profiles this may work.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:24 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Private in MENA

Two years ago

A bit of nostalgia. two years ago this very weekend I had the fine occasion to begin that small bit of cancer unpleasantness.

Continue reading "Two years ago"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:35 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso-Expatedness

November 13, 2007

Emerging Markets Financing and Aid, experienced bollocks

Although I would very much like to delve into the guts of this, sadly - well not sadly as this is life - general interest and client confidentiality requires circumscription.

However the main point of this comment is a disgusted practitioner's cris de couer as to the sheer idiocy of various "business development programs either pimped by EU or US or ... well you bloody well can guess the actors. I should add that I do not think that these programs are not ipso facto pissing money down a rat hole... as I think some American Senator said in the 90s. Even as a .. well highly value added oriented actor entirely willing to admit that I am both a a profit whore and that most aid is shit (due to utterly fucked incentives) - well there having said the necessary.

Aid Development programs run by kids are ... just doomed. Kids, however talented just don't know enough not to propose either to me (and I bloody well as fucking connected enough to hear independently even if said Dev Prog had not openly confessed...)

Continue reading "Emerging Markets Financing and Aid, experienced bollocks"

Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:11 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Filed Under: MENA VC & Priv. Equity , Perso Biz Notes

November 11, 2007

Curse of the Dilettantes: celebrity interest in MENA (and other) causes

Worthy of a quick reada note on the celebrity aide complex for Africa which as well applies to the MENA fringe, I draw particular attention to this:

Twenty years on, more “fockin’ money” is still the musicians’ basic prescription for Africa. Bono’s crusade centres around foreign aid and debt relief. There are experts who agree with him. Jeffrey Sachs, the stars’ favourite economist, favours an aid-driven approach to African poverty – and, according to Angelina Jolie, he is “one of the smartest people in the world.”

But the Sachs-Bono-Jolie prescription for Africa is hardly uncontested. There are experts who believe that aid to Africa is often counter-productive. Even some of those who agree that aid and debt relief are important see them as only a small part of the solution. In a much-praised book on global poverty, The Bottom Billion, Paul Collier argues that many of the problems of Africa are essentially political. He laments the fact that at the G8: “We have had leadership without an adequate agenda, because to date the agenda has been dominated by aid.

As all know, I frankly detest Sachs as an idiot theotician.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:47 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Economics , MENA Region General

November 05, 2007

MENA - Where forward

I have to confess, I am tired. Not of work, that is my passion, but of trying in this small space of communicating something of utility. Now while I enjoy having drinks with al Himma then ranting but having the sensation of having lost direction, I wonder where we should go forward while suggesting that typical blah blah cultural rubbish just doesn't say anything.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:47 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Blog Notes - Admin

Clarity

Well, Fin Crisis is coming home to roost.

My Titanic Masters told me I have until mid-08 to triple our figures or they're shutting down their attempt to penetrate these markets. Retrenchement.

While I rather regard my home office as fundamentally uncompetitive in this market, the challenge of trying (and affirming my achievements as newly appointed regional director) does concentrate the mind.

Make a run for it, and if they play ABN AMRO, well, it was fun and move on.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:01 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Perso Biz Notes

November 04, 2007

MENA Idiocies overheard

Actually - I do bloody swear - at my hotel lobby this evening:

Group of Americans (I presume given where I am business or American development assistance people) talking:

"You know there has never been a war between two countries with Mc Donalds"

[blithering on about McDo]

"We should work harder to get McDonalds in these [presumably MENA] countries, and the culture of getting along will improve [or grow, frankly I forget the precise wording]"

Ensued was a long, statistically illiterate discussion on the impact of FDI and peace, politics, pro Americanness, etc. which provoked a deep desire to jump and shot "Black Swan, Nassim Taleb" and obscenities.

As I have to suspect the American government subsidized or otherwise promoted this illiteracy, I give my condolences to those who tax payments are subsidizing sheer idiocy... (although frankly the understanding of the limited applicability of certain kinds of observations or stat analysis is not politically driven so I have to limit my ranting)

Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:23 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Biz - Private in MENA , Politics - US FP , Society & Culture , The Maghreb

November 01, 2007

New Month Note

I'm living out of hotels for the moment, so a mere note to say will be back.

Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Filed Under: Blog Notes - Admin