First, on the personal, well, frankly this past year was quite good. In fact quite brilliant. I got both a rather nice double bonus, plus an out-of-cycle augmentation across the board. The cash part I know what to do with, but how I am going to manage to spend my expat vacation travel and related allowances I have no bloody clue as I have to scheme already to consume what I have. Nevertheless, having one's management of the regional business qualified as "absolutely brilliant" only makes me more insufferable.

At the same time, I know the Board is due to review my sphere of influence and I suspect I am going to end up like ABN Amro's manager for Maghreb and Francophone Africa did 5 years ago - pat on the back for having been brilliant and having exceeded targets, blah blah, but "strategic decisions" will shut me down. I've made no bones about not being overall competitive (although I can see ways to be so, I don't see them as saleable).

No worries - if it blows up, it will blow up in a good way for me.

Now then, retrospectives - I suppose my extreme paranioa looks put on, but one thing markets have taught me, it is far, far better to be constantly surprised by upsides than downsides. Take risk, but assume your balls can get cut off any minute.

Longer term one has to tolerate the risk of balls coming off.

Now, looking back, and combining this with what we call "forward looking analysis" (about as useful as forward lookng PERs - utter shite dressed up in rational clothes), I think I confess that I underestimated the US Administration ability to manage its downside in Iraq. The upside still remains low-grade civil war, but that upsdie now seems more or less achievable - if the US is clever. I am now more optimistic about that. Which US party would be better, I have no idea. Maybe the Left if it elects someone from its Centre but it is always hard to call these things. Certainly Guilani is right out (from the Right),but apres...

Else, I have much work to do, so other than blithering on about myself and the like, have to get back to performance. When I can actually take my almost Continental European levels of vac days, who the bloody fuck knows, but sadly my most obsessive side has been encouraged.

[Update 10 Jan: well called the Board thing wrong. Got me two thumbs up for my proposed biz plan (with some additions I am not happy about, but eh, shall have to weasel this into something I want to do) and authorised to staff up]