« Lounsbury Trivia | New Month, Open Commentary - March 08 »
March 03, 2008
Decimals, Finance & Maghrebine Staff.
Of little general interest, but instead of playing with my damned outlays model (I almost wrote 'spend model' as I find it harder and harder to resist that horrible barbarism that some semi-literate American biz school undergrad created - due to sheer weight of usage), I shall complain about Maghrebine "financial engineers." Sadly by the way, ordinary financial staff, often are "engineers" - stemming from I think the French obsession with slapping engineer on any damned thing in applied maths.
Decimals. It's a petty obsession of mine. I like my numbers to be presented in a certain fashion. Round, and preferably with some clear signaling of roughness - if a model, some up-down scenarios, else 'roughly.' My philosophical point is to hammer home again and again that unless we're talking actual cost accounting, financial projections, and above all any kind of sector data is fuzzy. It's a human trait to be fooled into thinking there is precision in forecasting, etc.
My complaint then is that my Maghrebine staff, well trained as they are in Maths - far smarter than I on purely theory-technical I readily confess - are obsessed with giving me numbers to three or more decimals.
Which, in valuation terms, is fucking stupid. (Well for what we do, let me acknowledge that in many contexts those decimals can be on volume major profit or less) Well, not stupid, but I think - perhaps too philosophically - self deceiving. But they can't shake the bloody habit of (false) precision. Drives me bloody mad. Rigidity and blind adherence to theory, and false precision.
I would also like to add that this quarter was/will be a fucking disaster. Everything is frozen, nobody wants to move. Markets are all holding breath(or letting it out and ducking).
Posted by The Lounsbury at March 3, 2008 11:52 PM
Filed Under:
Perso Biz Notes
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.aqoul.com/movabletype/mt-tb.cgi/3584
Comments
Talking about disasters, I've just had one. Lost a solid 6 digits of personal $. My first business angel experience actually. A start-up whose expansion strategy was based on acquisitions. The project, I still believe, was a very good one. But the choice of the first acquisition target, the acquisition process itself, and the management were all completely fucked up. I finally decided to pull the plug after only a few months because it just made no sense (I would have poured more money if I thought management could be better with more money, but that's probably not the case).
Where I got it wrong? As someone who has an engineering background myself before moving by both training and experience to management/entrepreneurship and more recently to finance, I wildly overestimated the ability of others to move in that direction too.
There are a couple of MENA-related variables that have been at play too, I thought about writing about them here, but they're really minor in this venture and I don't think there would be enough meat for an entry.
Posted by: Shaheen
at March 4, 2008 04:10 AM
Interesting time to write this. Just got into an argument with someone today who insisted that his financial models were accurate to the second decimal place, which made no sense to me. When this happens I end up dividing the numbers by something slightly larger than 1, and then rounding down to an integer. Just in case.
Posted by: M. at March 4, 2008 08:35 AM
Shaheen Bey
You know I would love to have the case study on my blog if not on Aqoul, fuck the MENA specifics - if you want to vent, reflect and blog on this. Or on Aqoul, we're too quiet now to be ideological. Feel free if you have time.
M: I am sure your modeller was mathmatically and statistically accurate. What's hard to learn for maths modellers is Garbage In - Garbage Out. Of course if one waits for perfection, one does fuck all. Best to plow ahead, but always keep in mind, at every step, the data is fucked, dirty and a long fucking way from being proper, say like science measurements.
That's okay, but values out to multi decimals and in general belief in exactness (versus 'indicativeness') of said models is blood dangerous. (again this is about dirty real world enterprise to fin fin. models, to be clear)
Posted by: The Lounsbury at March 4, 2008 11:24 PM
I will L., I just have a rush I have to take care of for the next couple of weeks or so.
Speaking of non MENA topic though, and this is for you and eerie (actually I already mentionned this to eerie), it might be interesting to broaden the topics at Aqoul to anything written by authors connected/related to/interested in MENA. That way it would make the site a more ecclectic multi-author blog with MENA as a recurring theme (which in itself communicates about MENA somehow anyway) as opposed to writing exclusively about it.
Posted by: Shaheen
at March 6, 2008 02:58 AM
Shaheen Bey
I agree on the widening.
Posted by: The Lounsbury at March 8, 2008 11:49 AM

RSS



