RSSBiz - Private in MENA Archives
May 08, 2008
Like the 70s but w localisation
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
March 23, 2008
Arab El Dorado & Hollywood
A mildly amusing article on Hollywood efforts to raise funds for the usual rubbish. From the Gulf. They might think about raising money for Bollywood films first. Now, building an idiotic real estate project based on an already successful film, that's Gulf style speculation. Building something based on another model.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:52 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
March 21, 2008
Lunatic Real Estate
Now and again one can question even the basic sanity of some decisions. Or the pure idiot cupidity. Real Estate and UK investors come to mind. In particular, from The Times (London) and this particularly inane note Fly-to-let: the best places to buy an investment property overseas:
Continue reading "Lunatic Real Estate"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:15 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
March 08, 2008
Sympathy
Although I believe this lady is going to fail across the board, one has to be sympathetic. Having run across the blog, it appears to be a rather too typical story of Western woman falling for Maghrebine who convinces her to move to his home city without fundamental realistic thought.
Of course, the blog may not entirely reflect coping skills, etc., but certainly in my years in MENA I have seen a lot of these stories, with the woman not having the language or cultural skills and being thrown in on a sink or swim basis. Much the worse when said couple is trying to be entrepreneurial. Well, random blogs run across, and I am certain the owner would not be happy w such comments, but it gave me pause. Bloody glad I am not thrown into business in places I haven't the language basics, I know from experience it makes me quite cranky.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:59 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
March 05, 2008
Understatement - Dubai, unproven rental market potential
An amusing read in FT Money which besides making a questionable assertion regarding the Moroccan property market (at least as far as I can tell) amusingly states:
Another area to be wary of is Dubai. There has been a huge amount of development in Dubai, but rental demand is unproven. "Projects have been unbelievably ambitious and rental returns very seductive," says John.Hundreds of thousands of luxury apartments are due to come on to the market in Dubai next year and developers are promising yields of 9-10 per cent. Sales agencies have also launched some very eye-catching deals to entice investors.
One agent, Damac Properties, is offering a free Bentley or BMW with each Dubai apartment purchase, as well as the chance to win a private jet or island, although the company was unable to provide details of the offer.
John says the question is what happens when the building stops: "They have built so many luxury places, but how many people will choose to holiday there?"
Continue reading "Understatement - Dubai, unproven rental market potential"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:26 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
November 18, 2007
MENA, Oil, Pricing, Dollars
I should discuss this on the main page, but first some initial thoughts.
I have no clue - for all MENA - OPEC seems to be playing a price max game that suggests to me they think they will have a demand decline over the 5-10 yr frame and want to max current revenues.
At the same time, non-OPEC MENA is suffering - although appears to be getting ore investment via petro-dollars. This is very hard to track, as there are "PR Announcements" by the Khalijis that often are .... vapour dollars ... then there are the monies they invest via other vehicules that are non-PR.....
There is also the "green" or alt Energy opp... and frankly this is the wild wild wild west. But for some portions of MENA with good profiles this may work.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:24 PM | Comments (13) | TrackBack
November 04, 2007
MENA Idiocies overheard
Actually - I do bloody swear - at my hotel lobby this evening:
Group of Americans (I presume given where I am business or American development assistance people) talking:
"You know there has never been a war between two countries with Mc Donalds"
[blithering on about McDo]
"We should work harder to get McDonalds in these [presumably MENA] countries, and the culture of getting along will improve [or grow, frankly I forget the precise wording]"
Ensued was a long, statistically illiterate discussion on the impact of FDI and peace, politics, pro Americanness, etc. which provoked a deep desire to jump and shot "Black Swan, Nassim Taleb" and obscenities.
As I have to suspect the American government subsidized or otherwise promoted this illiteracy, I give my condolences to those who tax payments are subsidizing sheer idiocy... (although frankly the understanding of the limited applicability of certain kinds of observations or stat analysis is not politically driven so I have to limit my ranting)
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:23 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
October 22, 2007
Sometimes predictions work.
I am moderately pleased to note that that my thesis that emerging markets might prove a "safe haven" this round seems to be proving out and in flighty areas with:
For the third week in a row, emerging market equity funds absorbed more than $5bn (£2.4bn, €3.5bn) as investors continued to bail out of underperforming developed market asset classes and head for cash, emerging markets, or, to a lesser extent, commodities such as gold, said EPFR Global , which tracks fund flows.Since the fourth week in August investors have put almost $24bn in emerging funds, more than $28bn in money market funds and $895m in commodity sector funds.
As I said back in my August note, the problems in structured finance stabbed developed market advantages in the heart.
At the same time, I don't think this is sustainable in listed markets, and moving the money to private markets - venture funds and private equity funds requires identifying rare skills... But on the other hand, investors have been pouring into China on faith alone, so....
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:42 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Conference Call Idiocies: "So they're reformers?"
I hate conference calls with morons in North America. Bloody pants wetters wanted me to give them a run down of the investment situation in Maghreb, and in particular the "Democratic Developments" in Morocco.... (as well as the situation re Algeria and Libya).
Best question of the whole bloody fucking call: "So with a democratic reformer like the new Prime Minister, do you see opportunities picking up?" [in Morocco]
Reformer? I have no idea what this politically connected bloody crack-smoking fool was on about, but he should never be let near anyone's capital, that is for sure. It was a struggle to respond politely.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:10 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
October 11, 2007
New Dubai Canal: 11 billion for a new inland desert waterfront
I am not quite sure if this is brilliance or madness, but it certainly is a waste of capital of epic proportions.
Meanwhile, I read a snotty remark in one of the Maghrebine financial journals questioning whether many of the Big Ticket Gulfie investment projects were in fact serious, or mere PR incidents to drive their home market stock price.
And I say "Some Gulf Firms making Vapour Ware Project / Investment Announcements???" Perish the thought. I think the better standard is assume it's fictitious until the money is in an account on shore.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:35 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
October 08, 2007
Emerging Markets Sexy, sexy, sexy... Dubai rah rah ... overbought
Something about the HSBC move to open a brokerage in the Gulf aimed at international portfolio investment struck me as just not the great news that say the typical Gulf paper coverage would pimp it as. Of course, there is no bad news in the Gulf. Merely rumours of bad news, whispered or blogged (rarely).
HSBC is to become the first international bank to launch its own brokerage services in the United Arab Emirates to satisfy growing international interest in accessing these booming oil-backed economies.The new firm, HSBC Middle East Securities, will offer institutional investors access to the Abu Dhabi Securities Market and the Dubai Financial Market, which are jointly capitalised at more than $165bn, opening to retail investors next year.
“The Middle East is increasingly valuable and important to investors,” said Neil Foster, HSBC’s head of global markets for the Middle East, and chairman of HSBC Middle East Securities.
Record oil prices continue to underpin the booming economy of the UAE and other Gulf states, with international investors increasingly shrugging off concerns about poor corporate governance as they identify value in some listed companies on these exchanges – which lost up to 50 per cent last year after the stock market crash in the region.
Hedge funds are particularly interested in Middle Eastern markets, because of the perception that the oil-rich Gulf is relatively sheltered from the credit squeeze and runs on a different cycle to global markets. Within the Gulf, the UAE’s markets are most favoured by international investors. Dubai and Abu Dhabi boast enough companies that are open to foreign investment, while other markets – such as regional giant Saudi Arabia – are still relatively closed. HSBC has offered UAE brokerage services via third parties.
What I am all in favour of the argument that the US credit crisis exposed some clay feet, "shrugging off" mediocre governance standards and paying high prices for limited publicly traded paper....
I seem to recall rewinding about 15 years something similar.
A fine way to lose money really. Again, there is value in emerging markets but public paper is thin, and... hot money is oft dumb.
Continue reading "Emerging Markets Sexy, sexy, sexy... Dubai rah rah ... overbought"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:58 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
September 28, 2007
Lesson One: Attracting Major Industrial Investment by Private Sector
... is not best done by making it damn near impossible to convert currency, making life unpleasant for expat managers, and generally having a shrill and paranoid relationship with the private sector.
This is my general response to over a week of hearing various Algerian Pouvoir whankers whinge on endlessly about how Perifidious Maghreb stole the super duper Renault-Nissan 400k Logan production plant from Algeria and the French backstabbed them by going back on vague hand-wavey promises of investment.
Continue reading "Lesson One: Attracting Major Industrial Investment by Private Sector"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:07 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
September 15, 2007
Ramadan
Has started. Productivity falling as we speak. Lots of pious inanities about getting closer to family and the like, while the more consistently observable phenomena is lost labour time and senseless bickering before and after ftour, honeyed over by pious inanities. Sadly I can't do my usual shut down for Ramadan, but have to push ahead on business travel, although 75% of my time is wasted.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:17 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
September 06, 2007
Iranian Central Bank: Most interesting views on banking, I would like to subscribe to their
Following this Financial Times arty regarding "a plan to eliminate interest rates on loans as a way to encourage "real and genuine" banking services" I am most keen on learning more and would like to subscribe to their economic commentary.
However, it is a bit obscure and I am not an Iran watcher by profession or inclination.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:30 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
August 27, 2007
Developing Private Markets, Promoting Growth etc: US & Iraq, how to fail miserably all around
In reading this article from the Washington Post entitled most charmingly, "U.S. Falters In Bid to Boost Iraqi Business, Few Products Sold To American Firms" I confess to having been a bit taken aback.
Just when I think the Americans can show no greater depth of utter incompetence in Iraq, along comes something new. What possessed the idiots in Baghdad to think they could get Iraq exporting directly to the United States when functioning emerging market economies have trouble penetrating with companies run by people actually skilled in... well commerce, well it utterly escapes me. The sheer incredible unrealism involved in these efforts is truly stunning.
Now, as context, I would like to share some rants (of many) on Iraq and economic development from 2003, a period I would remind readers where I was actively still working on a major equity investment in Iraq that thankfully never went ahead. I can thank the American occupation authority, the infelicitously named "CPA," for having saved me the losses that would have followed had they been competent enough to respond in a timely fashion to our various efforts. They were not, so no investment, and now four years later all involved thank their lucky stars.
But regardless, the historical review:
1) Encore Ideology over practicality, 5 August 2003;
2) Bring on the Clowns - CPA as circus, 24 August 2003;
3) Iraq and Responsibility 1 September 2003;
4) On Iraq & the Privatization "Rules" 29 September 2003;
5) Iraq Reconstruction: Stunning Political Idiocy, Stunning Miserliness and Stupidity;
6) Iraq: Economic Reforms Analysis 2 October 2003;
(7) Iraq: an analytical piece of interest
Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:29 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
August 26, 2007
Risk Taking and Egypt (Umm ad-Dunya, example to the Arab world ... or simply easy place for Anglo Journos to do interviews....)
Perhaps the start of a small, tradition, commenting on stupid IHT articles, although to be fair Egypt searches for a balance that rewards risk-takers while valuing the past is an AP article and not without interest as a discussion of evolving business culture... or aspirations of evolving business culture.
Some reactions or thoughts then on Risk Taking
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
August 17, 2007
Terror & Credit
It's a sad statement that only our newsroom alerted me to the fact that the very week I opposed in Casa a retard decided to undertake to blow himself up, in a sad attempt to commit a suicide bombing perhaps indicative of a wider plot, whose perhaps only edifying result is to suggest that Moroccans inclined to suicide bombing are incompetent idiots. I have been rather more obsessed with the unwinding of over-leverage (and by extension possible implications for myself, but who is not without sin?
Continue reading "Terror & Credit"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:43 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
August 15, 2007
MENA & Credit Crunches, further thoughts
This interestingly timed article in the FT on the sharp rise in Islamic bond issuances provoked some thought, in conjunction with FT REPORT - FT FUND MANAGEMENT: Gulf pensions law promises a bonanza for fund managers from 13 August.
Although the arty has Humphrey Percy, chief executive of the Bank of London and the Middle East, London’s second biggest wholesale Islamic bank, saying “The growth of the sukuk market is a result of far greater knowledge about Islamic finance and much readier acceptance of sukuk as an investment vehicle.” I rather think it's a picture that looks more like CDOs before the tires got kicked this month, insofar as Sukuks haven't been stress tested in reality.
However, the plausible deniability, the lack of clarity and funky issue of "rating" (which frankly I think the rating agencies have become so lax as to make almost fictional)... all strike me as likely to fuel a boom. Liquidity flowing off, non-transparent funds....
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
MEMRI Econ blog?
Ran across this by accident semi-bland post on sov funds that because I have no confidence in anything MEMRI as non-agit prop, makes me wonder.
I suspect that there will be a follow-up on the potential evils of the Arab Sov Funds.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:04 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
August 10, 2007
Lounsbury on Credit Crashes & MENA
I shall readily confess that while I can make some claim to accidental prescience with respect to the great Hedge Fund popping, in my attention to explosions and hedge funds, I do not truly feel I know more than your average financial fool. Which is to say, who the bloody fuck knows where this credit business is going. Nor whether the hidden iceberg of derivatives and all their black-box models will rip open the guts of a big money centre bank or not; i.e. is that just-so-tale of derivatives spreading risk around so no-one has a deadly exposure right, or merely just-so...
That aside, presuming that this moment is a nice little slap up-side the financial markets head, and the real economy is not effected, it's a good moment to squeeze out some insanity and get people thinking about risk more reasonably (as well as realising the fancy hedge fund 'hedging' is mostly a load of bollocks and luck).
Both those abstractions aside, a question in comments about my thoughts on the impact on MENA. Well, my instinct is that some portion of capital that previously was looking for emerging markets return will pull back. But then, the blow up is occurring in fancy-schmancy financial alchemy land (US of A), not in emerging markets, so... to what degree is more rational risk pricing going to effect looking at them. Dunno. But there is lots of Gulf liquidity sloshing about.
Continue reading "Lounsbury on Credit Crashes & MENA"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:01 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
July 26, 2007
The New Humility: Or beware of Anglo Saxon Bankers Bearing Gifts
Reading the FT arty on the continuing sub-prime crisis blow back and in particular the rather nasty issue of whether the new habit of supposedly 'slicing and dicing' risk to meet specific appetites has any meaning and whether new questions about this will choke off all the M&A fun, I am amused to think of a comment by a big risk management cheese in a meeting last week btw bankers where a MENA banker asked him "what about modeling, how robust is it?"
His answer: "My answer last year would have been different. Now my answer is, I don't know."
But a rather more intellectual statement on Risk Management and Regime Change: "Specifically, it is yet to be established with a sufficient degree of confidence that, by diversifying across risky asset classes, investor portfolios will continue to sufficiently mitigate risk."
Continue reading "The New Humility: Or beware of Anglo Saxon Bankers Bearing Gifts"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:34 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack
May 30, 2007
World Bank - Zoellick
I have to say this is a pleasant surprise, Bush picking Zoellick, the whinging by "unnamed" Bank officials re "someone close" to Bush being a problem is off-base. The man is a good choice overall.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:50 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
May 08, 2007
Money Laundering as a Subsidy
Taking a play off of Shaheen's comment on my prior post, I was just thinking about Money Laundering as a subsidy to domestic consumption in MENA.
As I noted in my comment in reply, I don't rely care that much about the drug money laundering myself - although I know the illiberal prudes in the world, most notably the Great Finger Wagging Hypocrite Power, are all up tight about this - although I like it best when it's recycled into semi-productive areas that subsidize otherwise unaffordable consumption.
Sure, not real great for a healthy economy, but hey...
Of course, the real estate observation is key.
Continue reading "Money Laundering as a Subsidy"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:30 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack
Algiers, The Tourist Destination
I had one of the most surreal business conversations of my life today, with some... Algerians official who have somehow deluded themselves into thinking that I may be the conduit to foreign money to invest in what I can only characterise as a truly fantastical scheme to create an Algiers Bay tourist destination.....
Abstracting away from the fact that you can't get bloody tourist visas to Algiers without jumping through absurd hoops, and paying absurd fees, who in their right mind is going to visit Algiers, a city with goddamned paramilitary at every round point (and not the weeny under-fed pseudo para conscripts of Egypt, really serious French trained toughs with spanky new assault rifles and equipment) and a palpable sense of fear and malaise?
Now, I am not saying Algiers is not an attractive city, it is. It's just one would have to be fucking retarded to invest in tourism in Algiers. Fuck, the morons who invested in the Tourist hotels in Jordan got fucking raped, and Jordan at least was a semi-sane bet in 97. (this leaves aside the money laundering hotels built recently in Amman; I have a fondness for money laundering actually, it provides ridiculous services like mini theaters in absurd round tower hotels at absurd pricing for persons like myself to enjoy)
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:54 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
April 16, 2007
Apres Bombing Business, Reflexions on Conducting Business in Casablanca
I am not entirely sure even how to classify this, but a moment to reflect on apres bombing business. I'm in town and have to achieve some things before flying on to some neighbours. However, this weekend rather fucked things up. Boom, boom.
I have to say that it is extraordinarily difficult to concentrate. First, everyone is talking about it. Second, the local papers charmingly published the photos of the bombers, charmingly blown in half. As I caught sight of this long distance, I can't say that I felt better about seeing it in colour on the front pages.
Then there is the business mtg interrupted by a paniced call from a man's wife who heard, falsely another bomb had gone off nearby to us. Really not conducive to getting various deals going.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:18 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
April 07, 2007
How not to get (re)financed
When talking to me about your plans for a tourist development, try not to in the process bitch and whinge on about how the evil equity investors are pressing you with a put option to get their money out and how you're going to start a political campaign against them.
It's a stunningly bad idea. Why I went from being interested to thinking, "you are one dumb fool, never diss your financiers when trying to raise money."
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:07 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
March 20, 2007
Rotted Dimwitted Bureaucrats
Perhaps it is my general poor humour, however I have just gotten off the phone from yelling at some dimwitted git of a fool in a certain consular service from the region. I need to, to have my ridiculously expensive visa approved to go to this shitty rubbish messed up ridiculous mess of a dictatorship, have a "Justifying Letter" establishing the reason I might want, in a fit of madness no doubt, visit said worthless piece of real estate.
So, the Director of my firm has to write the letter. At this point I go ballastic and point out that I am, in fact, the motherfucking director (actually I said bloody goddamned director), and what bloody point is there to me writing a letter for myself to justify myself making the decision to go, myself, to the capital of X?
The logic, if it can be called that, was "if something happened to me they [who "they" would be escapes me] would want to know why the visa was granted." What the bloody fuck? Why the bloody fuck would anyone care what some threadbare suit wearing chimpanzee of an underpaid petty dictator of a consular official did in granting the fucking visa? I don't come from a fucking police state, and in the other direction, contra the little retard's supposition, we don't give a bloody fuck if you've been "authorised by" someone.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:23 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
March 13, 2007
Another Reason to avoid US placement: Israeli lobby & The hysteric anti-Iranian Jihad
I am not sure if I am amused or annoyed by this news from the FT that AIPAC has commenced a campaign lobbying to force US pension funds to divest from companies doing business with Iran.
Well, I am glad that none of my money is invested with schemes which these Religio-Nationalist zealots can touch.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:44 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Go East Old Man, Go East: Halliburton to Dubai
An interesting article, or rather an article on an interesting development that is difficult to assess. From the FT, entitled Risky Locations, on Halliburton's queer decision to move its CEO to Dubai.
I am, to be frank, puzzled. Comment below.
Continue reading "Go East Old Man, Go East: Halliburton to Dubai"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:35 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
March 07, 2007
Imperial America: Iran & Sanctions on 3rd Party Hydrocarbon Sector Investment
The Financial Times has an interesting, if infuriating (from its content, not writing) article on the Imperial American pretension to regulate other's investment in Iran. What irritates here especially is that I know from experience the slightest hint of similar actions by EU or similar parties touching on American interests provokes paroxysms of incoherent rage on the part of Americans. I confess readily knowledge of this, as well as my conviction that the US efforts here are posturing and will end up merely alienating without any real achievement, adds to my deep sense of irritation.
Now, mind you, the concept of the effort does not offend, and my snide swipe at Imperial America is most explicitly not from your usual Lefty whinging "evil capitalist America" tripe sort of point of view. No, It's about over-reaching, and clumsy over-reaching. I am a strong believer in avoiding too much obvious hypocrisy. One reason the overdone language the Americans and the French tends to engage in in their precious self-fellating rhetoric over their respective civilisations irritates.
Operationally, for many of the same reasons I predict that it will be the Chinese and similar parties that will reap the Iraqi hydrocarbons windfall, I strongly believe the US sanctions are an example of cutting off your nose to spite your face, which for some reason the current American administration seems to find to be a queerly enjoyable activity.
Continue reading "Imperial America: Iran & Sanctions on 3rd Party Hydrocarbon Sector Investment"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:43 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
March 06, 2007
Opportunity Cost
I just had an amusing, even hilarious for me, lunch with my attorney who was ranting on about how his local clients have to be brow-beaten (and we're talking corporates, name brand even) into conveying timely information, to him, their attorney, for work they've demanded.
I actually have the exact same experience. It's amazing, really, what it takes to get the simplest fucking things done in this region. Efficiency. What's most irritating and yet in some ways puzzling (in others not when you think about internal organisational structures and incentives) is the foot dragging raises their costs as much as mine (or the attorney's). Of course the constant whinging on about costs etc when they sit down with a bill makes this even more infuriating.
But there are clear organisation incentives to non-performance in the typical MENA company, nothing shocking that doesn't exist in the West of course - see Dilbert. But as always, these things are a question of degree, and indeed the weakness of countervailing incentives.
In some ways it's a good way to look at the failures of Iraq, since the American decision makers innocently assumed the exact same incentive structures, decisional processes and worst yet, reactivity. And being arrogantly blinded to the sometimes (indeed often) subtle differences - any one of which may be individually trivial, but cumulatively is fatal - were unable to react, to adjust and change at once tactics and conceptual strategy in ways that actually responded to the real incentive structures.
I've noted in places like our fool Andrew Sullivan (and even more egregiously chez the Moustache of Understanding) comments tending to indicate that Arabs (or Muslims, en grosso modo) don't value / want / desire Liberty, etc. etc. That's bollocks - but the operational incentives for making changes to achieve those things require different approaches, and realisation that the near term incentive structure is weighted towards avoidance of decisions etc. - nails get pounded down - unless one has a means to control - as in guns.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:53 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
March 05, 2007
Emerging Markets Attention
This week is looking interesting, my friends in Asian markets are all in a panic although I am rather sanguine since it's better to have these moments periodically than not and I don't think we're on the edge of a market collapse as such.
It's interesting to watch the local market actors, who are relatively inexperienced (not that I am really wiser than they, but I haven't had the habit of letting my head get all that big), meanwhile my dear little Wasta boy seems to have negotiated his 50% of zero - he's out. Idiot. Instead of 15% of a very profitable ongoing proposition with regional development perspectives, because he wanted a big chunk to sit his ass on, he got nothing.
Terribly typical attitude, kills lots of development - no vision of growth, just fighting over the pie as initially presented.
Of course, that's not unique to MENA - quite the contrary, it's pretty typical globally. But MENA business community is really terribly provincial.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:09 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
March 04, 2007
Prefering 50% of 0 to 10% of rather more than zero
Among the items prevernting me from enjoyable blithering on about the MENA region, I have a fine project for a new financial sector development - greenfield, very profitable. Here in region of course, I am a glutton for punishement.
Now, this will be a brilliant thing to finance, if the actors can get serious. It should not really be that hard, except my good friend, one of the local partners (proposed) seems to believe that because he's related to X, Y and Z, who are key to getting an operating license, that this means he should not only get a job in management (fine by me, not a Sr. job, but I think everyone would feel fine giving him a growth position) and get a sweat-equity stake (although I had to explain the concept, including the concept that he actually had to put some work into the sweat part), but that he should get a controlling interest.
Continue reading "Prefering 50% of 0 to 10% of rather more than zero"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:55 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
February 18, 2007
Reflexions on Talent, Markets, MENA & Development - The Value of Initiative
Inspired in part by a comment by Shaheen, and in part by some convo I dimly recall from a few months back somewhere in bloggy land about the value of expats and overseas educated and experienced staff, I thought I might make a comment on the value of staff with international experience.
While perhaps potentially self-serving, I really mean to briefly reflect on barriers to growth in MENA, as a business as well as a social problem.
Continue reading "Reflexions on Talent, Markets, MENA & Development - The Value of Initiative"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:30 AM | Comments (12) | TrackBack
Consular Cretins and Min of Interior Cretins
Have to go Djzair shortly. Had amusing - well semi-amusing - interaction in my semi-successful attempt to get a visa.
Continue reading "Consular Cretins and Min of Interior Cretins"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:06 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
January 17, 2007
Morocco Economics Blog
Via my amigo Ibn Kafka of the always interesting Obiter Dicta, I found Eco Maroc which for those interested in a fine discussion of business and economic dirt and controversy (such as the State abusing the "competition law" to defend certain (ahem) sensitive interests in cooking oils, etc), not to be missed.
Neither is Obiter Dicta, although it is about law and perhaps slightly infected with a Le Monde Diplo view, but I can always forgive ideological error when it is combined with pragmatism and intelligence.
So, there you are for the French readers.
Continue reading "Morocco Economics Blog"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:15 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 07, 2007
Private Equity Giants - Africa & Middle East on menu
I found interesting that one of Carlyle's big hitters cited in a Business Week interview Africa and Middle East as areas of expension for Carlyle.
Of course, if one looks at what he is citing, it's big infrastructure type investments - extractive industries and similar - not venture type investing, but it is regardless interesting that such a Fund management group is actually talking about placing money in Africa and the Middle East.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:56 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 03, 2007
Dubai, Innovation and Congestion - Outsourcing to Low Cost MENA
While it would be premature to conclude a shift, articles such as this from Gulf News re destinations like Egypt becoming attractive on a total cost basis for tech firms.
Continue reading "Dubai, Innovation and Congestion - Outsourcing to Low Cost MENA"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:32 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
January 01, 2007
Impressive Losses: Gulf Bourses knock off 442 billion USD
An encouraging headline: 442 بليون دولار خسائر الأسهم الخليجية عام 2006
, 442 billion is actually some real money.
No surprise in this, the only question that comes to mind is whether the ongoing correction in the Gulf will substantially damage the equity industry in the medium term.
The correction is healthy, and I think will in the near term tend to push liquidity into alternatives, and perhaps out of the Gulf into neighbouring areas, as well as Europe.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:24 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
December 29, 2006
Islamic MBA...
A queer concept, really, the Islamic MBA, but the FT report on this from two weeks back makes for interesting reflexion on the emerging intersection of Islamist thinking - let's call it roots-Salafism (modernization oriented conservative piety as opposed to Wahhabite inflected nihilist messianic neo-Salafism of al-Qaeda) - and modern economic / socio-economic trends.
Some reflexion, then, below:
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:28 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
December 08, 2006
France 24: New player in the Sat News Game
Long planned the trilingual France 24 station is up and running I shall follow this as closely as possible, but another international player is interesting even if it is a very crowded market.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:57 PM | Comments (14) | TrackBack
December 05, 2006
Flocking to Sukuk... well, maybe
The Financial Times has a moderately interesting article on the supposed flocking of Western investors to the sukuk market.
I am skeptical that the end buyers are in fact 'Western' but I was amused by the framing at the opening, with its perhaps unintentional, but certainly very clever accuracy as to reality, if adopting the double-language of the Islamist take:
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
December 02, 2006
Whither Gulf Markets?
The pulling of the Oger IPO is interesting and leads me to think that the Gulf infatuation with public listings may be breaking down under the sustained pressure of the correction.
On the other hand, there is so much liquidity shloshing about, and American "anti-terror" money chasing makees Western markets danerous for Muslim money - however clean.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:40 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
November 28, 2006
MENA Govs - Still don't get Free Market
I just came away from an interesting yet profoundly frustrating meeting with some Sr. officials from the Maghreb on investment projects in the "Technology Space" - one can interpret that broadly to mean any technology new to the Maghreb, not just North American style Hi Tech.
Motivated folks, smart and well-educated.
And without the slightest fucking clue as to how the bloody fuck the private sector invests. Painfully clueless.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:51 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
November 19, 2006
The Problem with Criticism
No one really likes it very much.
Invited to talk to some disturbingly sr officials etc. shortly on investment issues, but not in private. In private one can say what one means. In not in private, well, that's an issue. I should decline. I've now rewritten my notes 7 times, each time getting less and less interesting. Bloody moujamelat - why bother?
However, as I have been thinking about this, I do see I need to get back to my old hobby of whacking away at the idiot development people and the Sachs of the world who piss and moan about "Multinationals" and "global exploitation" w/o the slightest clue as to the sinister effects of national regulation. After so long being concerned by the incredible incompetence of the Right Bolshevik retards, it would be nice to get back to beating on the Left idiots.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:14 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
November 12, 2006
Stupid American IPR anti-piracy Hollywood fellating idiocy
Goddamit, all me DVD sources now have those flimsy plastic envelops and the fixed stalls have a crappy selection right now.
Of course the lower quality wandering vendors are still all around.
Why all this? Because some newly arrived ignorant fool in the US G services here has gone on a jihad about movie pirating - no doubt due to idiotic whinging on by some Holywood scum looking to wring some few more cents out of this market - and the local authorities now feel they have to make a show of suppressing pirated DVDs.
Won't last, and all it is doing is pressing the supply into the moving rather than fixed vendors, and annoying the fuck out of me. Morons. Focus on rich markets, the marginal gain here is far below the cost.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:51 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
November 10, 2006
First Islamic Bourse - Dubai & Marketing
An amusing bit of marketing from the out of favour Dubai Financial Market, as it declared it would be restructuring to comply with Islamic finance principals (which largely seem to revolve around the utter devotion to disguising interest as fees and other time linked cash flows).
As the article states:
Many investors in Dubai believe the conversion is primarily a marketing exercise. Islamic principals only exclude companies whose main business is pork, alcohol, arms, tobacco or interest, and state-owned DFM has never fallen into these categories. Furthermore, DFM will continue to list conventional banks after its conversion, with fees from banking stocks paid into a separate pool.The chief motive, analysts say, is that the main Dubai share index has fallen from a peak of 1,267 points a year ago to 379 points yesterday. They argue that bourse officials hope to offset the impact of this vicious bear market by tapping into the current Gulf Arab fad for investments with the "Islamic" tag.
Could not agree more.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:38 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
October 22, 2006
Bedou Scum & Destination Aqaba - Incentives and Disincentives to Investment
A peculiar article from The Financial Times on a new emergence of little old Aqaba, that almost famous Ottoman fort, "Incentives make Jordanian port investor haven".
Never liked the place myself, but more interesting than the somewhat hypish headline is the discussion of barriers:
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:01 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
October 07, 2006
Maghreb Economics
A quick note on some recent items from FT regarding investment flows, which will be of interest to some readers. Fund to invest $100m in African real estate, on the CDC fund for Africa (North and sub-Saharan) which is intersting as there are now also relatively substantial Gulf funds heading into real estate in North Africa as well.
And then Algeria, where supposed reforms seem to be going nowhere: Algiers turns up nationalist heat in oil and gas industry, one step back after a half step feint forward.
Algiers is reasserting control over its oil and natural gas fields barely a year after the North African country wooed international energy groups with friendlier investment terms.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:32 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
October 04, 2006
Dubai, the Attraction
A quick note to draw attention to a recent arty by Roula Khalaf of FT on Dubai and the why behind its success to date: Dubai cultivates oasis of calm where Arab business life can flourish
The main thrust of the article is to highlight some of the why behind Dubai's success to date, beyond just stupid amounts of capital. Although that is a clear major condition, it is not a sufficient one as the other petro-giants of the region never managed to achieve Dubai's success (even if we mitigate our appreciation of the success by noting a definately unsustainable aspect doped by too much liquidity chasing too few quality assets).
Despite my own critical attitude towards Dubai - much is clearly illusion and can not survive, there are also clear lessons with respect to the ability of the Arab/MENA region entreprenurial classes actually being able to flourish when a moderately liberal (quite liberal for the off-shore aspects) business environment is established. I do note that some of - indeed in some ways much of Dubai's liberalism is rather Potemkin liberalism insofar as it is all of a very temporary, Enlightened Despot Suffrage quality. That being said, if one takes Dubai with a grain of salt, it does illustrate via its off-shore business services sector the degree to which Arabo-Muslim entrepreneurship is seeking a place to flourish away from the dead hand of the state, and the degree to which even in the temporary, Prince-dependent liberalism of Dubai seems vastly attractive in a world where the West is growing stupidly more hostile to Arabo-Islamic money.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:38 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
September 24, 2006
Libyan Assets, American Capital
Rather preliminary, but nevertheless certain to provoke much ignorant comment, "Carlyle poised to bid for Libyan oil giant, says son of Gaddafi" reports The Independent.
The article reports " US private equity group with links to leading Republicans in talks to buy state-controlled Tamoil, valued at €3bn", which is plausible given The Carlyle Group's announced fund for the MENA region, which was very obviously aimed at these kinds of massive investments.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:10 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
September 19, 2006
Psychology, Investing and Pressing Flesh
A general comment, but one I think useful from some perspectives on understanding investment flows (from an anectdotal perspective) in MENA as well as business practice.
Have been doing rather large number of meets w financial institutions in region, and have had the occasion to attend some multi-player mtgs that illustrated the key importance of pressing flesh, so to speak [or why face to face human contact is not replaceable], as well as the influence of cultural frameworks.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:36 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack