RSSSham-Levant Archives
December 08, 2007
Illustrations on why one should not read Right Bolsheviks blogging on MENA, they are gullible dupes
The disgrace of one of the NRO's writers, (as discovered via Mr Sullivan's Daily Dish) although easily much of what I read among American Right Bolshy blogging on MENA borders on the fictitious if not the delusional.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:22 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 20, 2007
The Talabani Al Hayat Interview
Kevin Drum posted a question with respect to a news item cited by Juan Cole, on what Iraqi President Jalal Talabani said on Iran - US - Iraq relations.
The article Cole worked off referred to an accompanying article of the interview w al-Hayat (what appears to be a partial transcript of the interview).
In that interview he responds to a question w respect to Iran and Syria:
Continue reading "The Talabani Al Hayat Interview"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:31 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
November 22, 2006
Coercion & Land: Israel
There has been much commentary online on this article in the NY Times on Israeli land seizures in the Occupied Territories.
I find the debates rather tedious and...well idiotic. I suppose for those without operational knowledge of how things work in emerging markets or in coercive environments (and that includes prissy Americo-Israelis who rarely experience the business end of the occupation) that theoretical niceties such as "tittle transfers legally registered" mean something.
Continue reading "Coercion & Land: Israel"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:05 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
October 22, 2006
Bedou Scum & Destination Aqaba - Incentives and Disincentives to Investment
A peculiar article from The Financial Times on a new emergence of little old Aqaba, that almost famous Ottoman fort, "Incentives make Jordanian port investor haven".
Never liked the place myself, but more interesting than the somewhat hypish headline is the discussion of barriers:
Continue reading "Bedou Scum & Destination Aqaba - Incentives and Disincentives to Investment"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:01 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
August 27, 2006
Nasrullah - The real untold story
I was just reflecting on the truly scandalous untold story behind our chubby mate in Leb Land. No one ever wants to talk about his speech impediement, which renders him so cute and endearing when he sneers (quite effectively really, he's got quite the sense of humour) at Iswa eel. Nasrullah Fudd.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:42 PM | Comments (8) | TrackBack
The Fox Conversions
Frankly bizarre. Just saw the videotapes.
The forced "conversions" to Islam smell a tiny bit fishy. It's not the typical neo-Salafi thing. Either the captors were complete ignoramuses (which one can never exclude, above all in Ghaza) or there is something of a whiff of agitprop manipulation there.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:38 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
August 24, 2006
Real Challenges - Competing With Hezbullah
I had another convo with the American group on the US Gov propo regarding Lebanon reconstruction.
The thinking is going in the right direction, they realise on reflection that rushing in to compete with Hezbullah is a great way to do CPA bis, but now the question is "How do you compete with Hezbullah to mitigate its wins?"
Regardless of American stupidity in regards to its FP, the question is a real one.
How indeed does the US compete with Hezbullah?
Continue reading "Real Challenges - Competing With Hezbullah"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
August 18, 2006
Hezbullah's Victory: Roy - Clearheaded as Usual
It is worth drawing attention to Olivier Roy's commentary piece in The Financial Times, entitled Hizbollah has redrawn the Middle East
The perceived victory of Hizbollah in Lebanon may be short term but has highlighted some new and important developments. For the first time, the Israel Defence Forces were unable to prevail in an all-out war. More significant, the winner this time is a Shia Muslim, non-state, armed movement supported by Syria and Iran. In Israel’s previous wars, from 1948 to 1982, the challengers were Sunni Arabs.
Again, returning to punching above their weight.
But the most important issue is who is going to grapple with this issue realistically - rather than throw tantrums that US "largesse" is not "appreciated" as the cretin in power in the US has done.
Continue reading "Hezbullah's Victory: Roy - Clearheaded as Usual"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:35 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
August 16, 2006
The Lebanon Debacle First Lessons
Lessons may be to big a word, perhaps "preliminary observations approaching lessons" would be better.
The most remarkable item from this fiasco is the manner in which the current American administration unerringly executes near-perfect bicycle-kick own-goals. It's breathtaking in its consistency, and the sheer deluded pig-headedness of it all. Only a year or two I passed over in polite silence or sneered at American Left whinging on that the Bush Administration is the worst in living memory; I confess I am sliding towards a similar opinion now in light of the simply extraordinary incompetence on display and the bizarre inability to learn from its own goals. The "Neo-Con" block is truly Bolshevik in its elevation of its ideological precepts over all fact and ample evidence of failure of its most radical precepts.
The night before last in particular in watching on one of the arab sats the Bush speech with my partner and friends I was Almost taken aback by the depth and intensity of the reaction to his speech, and this among, as I noted at Lounsbury, a crowd tending to the liberal (free market) and not typically anti-American (my JV partner being the sole person who I might characterise as "pro-American" at some level) but certainly typically pro-West. Bankers and the like.
Continue reading "The Lebanon Debacle First Lessons"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:14 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
August 11, 2006
As a rough guide, Xian Leb emails I have rec'd
Just as a guide to sentiment, part of a parcel of increasingly ... well motivated.... emails I have received from Xian Leb amigos, the writer of this one having the first name Pierre.
Continue reading "As a rough guide, Xian Leb emails I have rec'd"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:53 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
August 10, 2006
Lebanon: In a Hole? Dig Deeper
As expected, although not hoped, the Lebanese tar-baby has induced Israel to keep punching in the queer expectation that the same strategy that failed ten years ago (North to the Litani!) will somehow work this time. As the impossibly dim American administration appears to be utterly indifferent (and perhaps unaware) of the damage it is doing to its own agenda, its own allies, and the truly idiotic nature of this conflict, we can expect more clumsy American posturing about "root causes" and some fantastical, magical international peace keeping force with marching orders to lock in Israeli interests without consultation with the other guys with guns. It may be the French are actually self-deluded enough to want to play that role, although one suspects not so much as to sign up for the utterly deluded American "conditions".
Meanwhile, weeks after predicting that Hezbullah would be destroyed in two weeks, Israel remains engaged in 'secured' border villages. I recall some commentators questioned the rationality of Arab perceptions in region that Hezbullah was and is punching above its weight. Well, afraid the questioning was based on the same faulty perceptions as that which led to those two week predictions.
Continue reading "Lebanon: In a Hole? Dig Deeper"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:16 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
August 05, 2006
A Long Comment on Incentives in Sham-Isr. Land
I thought I would reproduce here a long comment I made chez The Glittering Eye on Israelo-Arab incentives for doing deals in part over irritation at the rather typical blind-spots Americans have with respect to the conflict and incentives, as it were.
Continue reading "A Long Comment on Incentives in Sham-Isr. Land"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:15 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
August 02, 2006
Another rotted MENA day, various in region notes
Although I was tempted to comment on BBC World's delicious (semi) new lineup of chicas, however that seems trivial in some ways given the continued madness in region.
I would note the headlines in the papers, whatever the language (excluding the delusional US media) and whatever the political orientation all revolve around the same story line: "The American-Israeli War / Aggresion against Lebanon." Depressing for someone drawing salary from a US firm, but understandable for the sheer idiocy and magical thinking characterising Israelo-American positioning.
Continue reading "Another rotted MENA day, various in region notes"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:10 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack
August 01, 2006
Reflexions Economic & Practical - MENA During Times of Conflict
If I may (and of course I can, as this is my bloody bloggy and I do whatever I bloody want) some indirect comments on the current environment in region. Sitting in region, I will nevertheless note that spending evenings watching (as this evening) imagery of shattered children's bodies (headless even, on Al Arabiyah) is not precisely cheery. Even my JV partner, normally an almost pro-Israeli type said this evening something along the lines of "They want to impose their rule over all their neighbours like tyrants." Utterly out of character. And certainly the Arabic for tyrants carries a lot of meaning.
But on the environment, I spent this evening between popular (working class) beach and consular parties, an interesting contrast on some level, and an occasion to reflect on the diffent worlds, perceptions and understandings of crisis. Best of all, plenty of American diplos showed up at the later, I suppose needing to mingle with people less likely to tell them straight out their employer is a stupid git.
Continue reading "Reflexions Economic & Practical - MENA During Times of Conflict"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:57 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Very good to know that KSA is so generous
I'm so happy Al Arabiyah is showing its colours.
And I am treated to this fine "interview" with the Director of KSA support, Mubarek Said [Chaihaja] celebrating KSA's generous support to the Shahide population of Lebanon. Hard hitting journalism this.
Mind you, I normally like Al Arabiyah, but really....
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:52 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
July 30, 2006
Sadly Predictable: Transforming Leb Land by Bombing Backfires
The campaign against Hezbullah turns on itself, and American "diplomatic efforts" continue to exist in some strange, delusional world of wishful thinking, where by some magical intervention from on high Hezbullah caves, and again somehow military force magically re-arranges inconvenient political realities. A queer belief system, to be sure, given it is so clearly divorced from reality, but it is the operating one for the US government as it blunders from one PR disaster to another.
[link corrected]
Continue reading "Sadly Predictable: Transforming Leb Land by Bombing Backfires"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:07 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
July 26, 2006
Finding the amusing side to Leb Land crisis TV
Inappropriate but I was just cackling like a hyena over the truly silly interview that Al Arabiyah just had with a UNICEF official (Leb by accent) who rather gauchely praised the Qatari grants and aid to Lebanon (on Arabiyah after all, the KSA backed channel) the presenter rapidly interrupted her to mention the Saudi efforts as well...
It was pure gold. Well for those of us amused by such things.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:56 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Despairing of sense: MENA and an increasingly unmoored America
I am increasingly despairing of the completely unmoored US position in the Middle East. Between utterly magical thinking regarding breaking Hezbullah militarily and equally bizarely unmoored and ungrounded policy in Iraq (where, per this NYT arty, after 3 years of major effort, the American military is working to "reclaim control of the Iraqi capital"), I am beginning to think, after some hope that Rice was actually rather more competent than I had given credit in the past, that I am facing roughly two odd years of truly complete, ham-handed incompetence of the most dangerous kind.
Continue reading "Despairing of sense: MENA and an increasingly unmoored America"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:42 PM | Comments (12) | TrackBack
Thoughts on the MENA Leb Situ
Today I had lunch with an important MENA finance group director, and thankfully a good friend of mine. We had a nice round of chilled rose together, and besides discussing various issues regarding equity investments, FDI and the like in the region, we hit on Leb Land and the utterly - I repeat utterly - Pyrhhic offensive of Leb Land 82 Bis that Israel is undertaking (wasn't me I may add who raised, fuck no). The subject was fundamentally depressing. Working, as I do, for a firm with US base, I am prisoner of every idiocy that the cretininous, and I do use the term advisedly, American goverment undertakes.
Continue reading "Thoughts on the MENA Leb Situ"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:45 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 23, 2006
Isr-Leb: A long weekend closes
Well, the imagery is as enlightening as ever on the Sats. The contrast between "Rest of World" coverage and US coverage remains in the realm of bizarre. Rather clearly the Americans have and continue to buy into the smart if inaccurate perfect identification by Israeli gov of their conflict with the US 'war on terror' (itself of course a rather stupid framing, but like the fruitless US war on drugs, sure to provide endless openendness).
Some protests here, broken up by security forces. Cultural events and the like, protestors angry the spoiled elite still want to boogey when 'Muslim brothers' are dying.... Late night variety show interrupted by one judge expressing his solidarity with Lebanon. all the signs that as this goes on, the raw wounds of the region are getting further irritated.
Continue reading "Isr-Leb: A long weekend closes"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:27 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
July 22, 2006
Saturday Invasion: Isr-Leb Land crisis, Tanks Cross
Today's Sat TV imagery is fun. Nice live shots of Merkava tanks crossing the border into Leb Land. Euro News has video, Isr. indicates incursion, not invasion.... Super TV also on the rockets hitting Haifa.
And the Nero that is the US administration plays its little chanson of looking for "durable" peace after Hizbullah is crushed of course.
On the other hand, the demos in Aussi land were far less enlightening. "Israel's Holocaust" is just moronic rhetoric.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:30 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 19, 2006
As the madness continues (Leb-Isr)
I have to say I found these images (a series of which I received by email but one of which is reproduced chez The Times) depressing. Although I suppose that images of small Israeli girls writing death wishes or similar sentiments on shells serves to underline the growing sickness of this entire affaire. As well as perhaps the fact that not only the Palestinians are capable of grotesque acts of involving children in wishing death upon the Other.
Continue reading "As the madness continues (Leb-Isr)"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:57 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack
America, the land of bizarro-world MENA commentary
I sometimes wonder what it is about American media that leads to quite such utterly delusional commentary on the Middle East. Following up on my initial gut reaction, some more thoughts on the utterly surreal American whanking.
Continue reading "America, the land of bizarro-world MENA commentary"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:08 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 18, 2006
MENA Ground, Crises & Lounsbury Observations
Today, for the first time since the cancer, I am back on the ground. Some thoughts about this bloody crisis which I've flown into.
First, as a general observation, despite the rhetoric I do not see this as truly being about "destroying Hizbullah." As Abu Sinan noted in comments on 'Aqoul, replying to Raf Bey's commentary, and I hit on in comments on Tom's "What was Hizbullah thinking?", if Israel was unable to break Hizbullah when it occupied southern Lebanon and ran its own indigenous Lebanese militia there (the confettis of which live in Israel now, see link), there is no chance in hell mere airstrikes and border raids are going to break Hizbullah. And as Abu Sinan opines, and I agree, degrading Hizbullah would simply lead to a replacement. A political supply and demand.
Now, some thoughts about the genesis of the crisis:
Continue reading "MENA Ground, Crises & Lounsbury Observations"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:15 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
July 14, 2006
Leb Land and Israeli bloody mindedness
Some thoughts on this escalating madness.
First, it really is painful to watch CNN fellating the Israeli point of view. Really bloody hell, a bit of critical analysis, not soft-ball questions to Netanyahu. I expect American media to be pro-Israeli, but critically so.
Second, the escalation is begining to worry me. Yesterday I was inclined to think this would blow over, but now the number of (American and Israeli) security types out pimping the line that Israel has to move into southern Leb Land to insure its security strikes me as a worrisome indicator of both American and Israeli thinking in the decision making circles. Of course, the last time they ran this, it was decades long disaster that made Hizbullah what it is today.
Third, Israeli actions while not unjustified are Pyrrhic. They are going to drive a rally-round-the-flag effect and doubtful they are going to generate what is wanted.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:11 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
Lebanon - Israel: US Media
As I count down the US exile, the Leb Land crisis with the Israeli over-reaction is an interesting occasion to observe the sheer incompetence, laziness and pandering that is the US media (mass and blog-loonistan).
Watching CNN in particular I was bemused by a truly stupid waste of broadcast time in reading the inanely ignorant blithering of viewers (which was as predictable as it was unenlightening, such as Avi from LI -not an actual name- ranting on about the evil UN, etc.); hardly news unless one had some analysis of the reactions.
The segement on "knowing our enemy" (our? Has Israel become a US state? Bloody hell, a bit of objectivty mates) re Hizbullah was typically shallow, ill-informed and security focused. Domestic US news really is atrocious. Not a new comment but bloody hell.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:20 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
Lebanon - Israel: Come on mates, that dance is getting boring
A quick note as me cousins are taking me out yachting in their lucious hand restored thingy, and I am lazily working up to the end of me long, long exile:
The Israeli strikes on Lebanon genuinely surprised me - this new government seems to be running purely on gut reaction and military officer instincts. While Hizbullah clearly has crossed a line, generalised strikes in Beirut are not going to get the reaction the Israelis are looking for; rather I would say hitting the airport and a naval blockade will cause a rally round the flag effect. Pounding the shit out of Hizbullah position in S. Lebanon would have been more appropriate.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:08 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
October 06, 2005
Starbucks and Extra Special Overdone Whinging
Due to running a search to see where 'Aqoul had been mentioned I ran across this post by a (former?) contributor to 'Aqoul on is livejournal: On the Arabization of Starbucks.
Well, I am bemused to say the least.
First, I almost was involved in some financing issues for an effort to bring Starbucks to the Levant - fell through when the bloody Iraq war started and as I was led to understand, Starbucks got cold feet. Second, I know the locations involved, indeed I suspect I even know the entrepreneur behind the Starbucks franchise (if it is the same person).
Let me say then, ridemycamel's whinging on strikes me as ridiculous and risiblely immature posturing, although very typical elitist arab lefty youth self indulgence.
Continue reading "Starbucks and Extra Special Overdone Whinging"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:16 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
September 26, 2005
Gulf Finance, Booms & Inefficiencies
Our friend and sometime contributor Waterboy draws attention to something obvious to all involved, and yet an item that remains out of control: overliquidity in the Gulf region and the consquent mad asset price boom in the Gulf. His observation is spot on, that there is
there's too much cash chasing too few investment opportunities in the region; too little oversight, regulation or transparency; too much exuberance - bear in mind, as Japanese bank Nomura pointed out, that Saudi Telecom's market capitalisation of US$74bn is worth more than BT (US$35bn), AT&T
(US$15bn), SK Telecom (US$15bn), and Telekom SA (US$9bn) combined - and far too many unsophisticated investors who think that having the names of a couple of ruling family members in the IPO prospectus is a valid alternative to a business plan - or, for that matter, an existing business.
No doubt about this at all. Some conversations I had over the past week painfully illustrated that. This aside, a key point of disequilibrium is the degree to which despite the asset valuations in the Gulf being absolutely looney to the point of surreal, the money is not flowing within the region to a reasonable degree.
Continue reading "Gulf Finance, Booms & Inefficiencies"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 04:59 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
August 19, 2005
Aqaba: New source of amusement, play the fire at US ships game
Repeating my comment on 'Aqoul, a small observation or two in re this:
Well, this news in the AM bemused me:
Missile Fired at U.S. Navy Ship in Jordan
It reports two missiles (in fact, it appears mortars, not quite the same thing, Mr. Halaby, or perhaps Katyusha rockets..... well something explosive in any case) were fired at US warships at Aqaba harbor.
Continue reading "Aqaba: New source of amusement, play the fire at US ships game"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:19 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
August 15, 2005
Gaza, the withdrawal
Besides suffering through a long marriage (not mine I may add), and working on a crunching MENA data for some private equity work, I had the occasion to take in the Gaza withdrawal coverage on the Euro and Arab Sats.
I was bemused. Most particularly I was bemused by the fact the Israelis are destroying houses as they leave. Penny-wise - Pound-foolish spite.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 02:16 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
August 11, 2005
Market Madness or Brilliance? US Gov Private Equity for MENA Announced (cross from Aqoul main)
At the risk of descending into flackery or something approaching it, I thought a brief comment here might be fun.
OPIC BOARD APPROVES $75 MILLION FOR MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA FUN
Certainly this plays into my personal interests. (and in this cross post I indulge in them)
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:22 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
July 12, 2005
Lebanon: The Lebanon II Scenario
No substantive commentary, but I draw attention to this:
Lebanon Deputy Premier Wounded in Blast
The target, a pro-Syrian politician.
I opined months back that I did not like the US supporting a maximalist approach to opposition politics because of the chances of playing into returned inter (and intra) communal violence.
The overall analysis behind this is that while, yes, a majority of Lebanese do not want a return to civil war, as in Iraq, and as in Lebanon - it is not the majority that makes these things happen. One simply needs enough hard men on either side who can make a profit in some manner, via power or money, to push it, and enough weakness on public authority side to be unable to choke the trend off.
Lebanon probably can choke the trend off, but the state is just weak enough that this can't be dismissed.
I also note the potential for a currency crisis which could help precipitate serious tensions.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 01, 2005
Idiots: Marching in al-Qods
Stabbings at Jerusalem gay march
Attacker stabs marcher: Religious groups opposed the march going ahead
A religious protester has stabbed three people taking part in an annual gay pride parade in Jerusalem.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4639731.stm
I had read about this previously, and thought it stupid, so let me say that organizing a gay pride march in Jerusalem is fucking stupid.
I have nothing against such marches as such, but in the context of Jerusalem, it is idiotic.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:03 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
