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April 15, 2007
Dar Fur: Finally a decent article in the US press
I do not have much comment, other than to say that this is easily one of the more well-informed articles published in English (although the faux racialisation of Arab versus non-Arab remains in the background) on Dar Fur. In reading this, I should think it clear wny I take a dim view indeed of Western intervention in such conflicts, givent he penchant for White Hat Black Hat thinking, and the utter ignorance that comes with it. Like the Tuareg - Mali Bambara conflict of the early 90s, this is something best left to the locals to settle. Foreign intervention by gullible dupes rarely goes well. And yes, I do not exclude Rwanda from this. The best resolution for Rwanda was not foreign intervention, but rather what occured, except earlier.
[16 April 9:00 GMT: Link fixed]
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:38 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
March 06, 2007
Opportunity Cost
I just had an amusing, even hilarious for me, lunch with my attorney who was ranting on about how his local clients have to be brow-beaten (and we're talking corporates, name brand even) into conveying timely information, to him, their attorney, for work they've demanded.
I actually have the exact same experience. It's amazing, really, what it takes to get the simplest fucking things done in this region. Efficiency. What's most irritating and yet in some ways puzzling (in others not when you think about internal organisational structures and incentives) is the foot dragging raises their costs as much as mine (or the attorney's). Of course the constant whinging on about costs etc when they sit down with a bill makes this even more infuriating.
But there are clear organisation incentives to non-performance in the typical MENA company, nothing shocking that doesn't exist in the West of course - see Dilbert. But as always, these things are a question of degree, and indeed the weakness of countervailing incentives.
In some ways it's a good way to look at the failures of Iraq, since the American decision makers innocently assumed the exact same incentive structures, decisional processes and worst yet, reactivity. And being arrogantly blinded to the sometimes (indeed often) subtle differences - any one of which may be individually trivial, but cumulatively is fatal - were unable to react, to adjust and change at once tactics and conceptual strategy in ways that actually responded to the real incentive structures.
I've noted in places like our fool Andrew Sullivan (and even more egregiously chez the Moustache of Understanding) comments tending to indicate that Arabs (or Muslims, en grosso modo) don't value / want / desire Liberty, etc. etc. That's bollocks - but the operational incentives for making changes to achieve those things require different approaches, and realisation that the near term incentive structure is weighted towards avoidance of decisions etc. - nails get pounded down - unless one has a means to control - as in guns.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:53 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
January 20, 2007
The Talabani Al Hayat Interview
Kevin Drum posted a question with respect to a news item cited by Juan Cole, on what Iraqi President Jalal Talabani said on Iran - US - Iraq relations.
The article Cole worked off referred to an accompanying article of the interview w al-Hayat (what appears to be a partial transcript of the interview).
In that interview he responds to a question w respect to Iran and Syria:
Continue reading "The Talabani Al Hayat Interview"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:31 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
December 27, 2006
Somalia: Appearances and Decisions
It is difficult to determine what precisely is occurring in Somalia with the Ethiopian intervention - which strikes me as rather typical of the Zeneoui government adventurism (as in Eritrea) - but the reports from the US media such as the Washington Post leads one to suspect that Ethiopian adventurism (combined with some real but limited security threat) is being egged on and supported by the Americans who are likely pointlessly giving themselves a black eye backing a government of feuding warlords over the Islamists.
Bad optics at best, probably a fundamental error - presuming that the reporting holds up.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:47 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack
October 22, 2006
Undoing the Right Bolsheviks
My favourite US center-left blog read, Kevin Drum has a fine little paragraph that has nice clarity without too much - indeed hardly any - partisan political content on the disaster of the Right Bolsheviks
Continue reading "Undoing the Right Bolsheviks"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:01 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
August 18, 2006
Hezbullah's Victory: Roy - Clearheaded as Usual
It is worth drawing attention to Olivier Roy's commentary piece in The Financial Times, entitled Hizbollah has redrawn the Middle East
The perceived victory of Hizbollah in Lebanon may be short term but has highlighted some new and important developments. For the first time, the Israel Defence Forces were unable to prevail in an all-out war. More significant, the winner this time is a Shia Muslim, non-state, armed movement supported by Syria and Iran. In Israel’s previous wars, from 1948 to 1982, the challengers were Sunni Arabs.
Again, returning to punching above their weight.
But the most important issue is who is going to grapple with this issue realistically - rather than throw tantrums that US "largesse" is not "appreciated" as the cretin in power in the US has done.
Continue reading "Hezbullah's Victory: Roy - Clearheaded as Usual"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:35 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
August 16, 2006
The Lebanon Debacle First Lessons
Lessons may be to big a word, perhaps "preliminary observations approaching lessons" would be better.
The most remarkable item from this fiasco is the manner in which the current American administration unerringly executes near-perfect bicycle-kick own-goals. It's breathtaking in its consistency, and the sheer deluded pig-headedness of it all. Only a year or two I passed over in polite silence or sneered at American Left whinging on that the Bush Administration is the worst in living memory; I confess I am sliding towards a similar opinion now in light of the simply extraordinary incompetence on display and the bizarre inability to learn from its own goals. The "Neo-Con" block is truly Bolshevik in its elevation of its ideological precepts over all fact and ample evidence of failure of its most radical precepts.
The night before last in particular in watching on one of the arab sats the Bush speech with my partner and friends I was Almost taken aback by the depth and intensity of the reaction to his speech, and this among, as I noted at Lounsbury, a crowd tending to the liberal (free market) and not typically anti-American (my JV partner being the sole person who I might characterise as "pro-American" at some level) but certainly typically pro-West. Bankers and the like.
Continue reading "The Lebanon Debacle First Lessons"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:14 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
August 13, 2006
End Game or maybe not
As our very own Tom Scud has summarised, the UN 1701 fig leaves and the online world of whankers reaction, I have little to add at the moment, having spent part of this weekend trying to rebrown myself (as camoflage) and internalise the new recommends GIPS guidelines as I write a profile for a fund. However, I do have a question for the more asture observers out there. The Sixth War is one of the monickers on the Arab Sats (at the moment I can't recall if it's al Jazeerah or al Arabiyah, things tending to blend at the moment). Anyone want to breakout the war accounting there for me as I can't get Six wars - depending on how I break it up I get one more or less. Oddly this irritates me.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:06 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
July 30, 2006
Sadly Predictable: Transforming Leb Land by Bombing Backfires
The campaign against Hezbullah turns on itself, and American "diplomatic efforts" continue to exist in some strange, delusional world of wishful thinking, where by some magical intervention from on high Hezbullah caves, and again somehow military force magically re-arranges inconvenient political realities. A queer belief system, to be sure, given it is so clearly divorced from reality, but it is the operating one for the US government as it blunders from one PR disaster to another.
[link corrected]
Continue reading "Sadly Predictable: Transforming Leb Land by Bombing Backfires"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:07 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
July 19, 2006
On Poodleness and Servility
Moving away from pure MENA commentary, I wanted to signal my amusement with this satirical comment in The Times:
RORY BREMNER must feel like giving up. For years he’s done his best to parody George Bush’s strangled syntax and Tony Blair’s White House poodle act, yet here he is, on the night, completely outclassed by the guys themselves. The Bush-Blair cross-talk, picked up by a lurking microphone at the G8 summit in St Petersburg, was beyond satire.Can you imagine Bremner allowing a line like “Yo, Blair, how are ya doin’?” into his script? He’d be laughed off stage. As for Mr Blair’s stumbling attempt to justify a trip to the Middle East in advance of Condoleezza Rice, it is surely too cringe-making to be allowed on television. I’m not even sure if readers of The Times can bear to hear it again, but here goes: “Well, it’s only if, I mean, you know. If she’s got a, or if she needs the ground prepared, as it were. Because obviously if she goes out, she’s got to succeed, if it were, whereas I can go out and just talk.” As a bleak definition of British diplomacy and its limitations today, that takes a lot of beating.
Servile, but there is no small amount of truth. One does rather have the sense that Blair wants Bush to play with him just a bit too much, whereas Bush is just a vulgar whanker, but that is hardly news.
So, contra my old CIA mate, some whores still want to be seen with you.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:15 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
July 18, 2006
MENA Ground, Crises & Lounsbury Observations
Today, for the first time since the cancer, I am back on the ground. Some thoughts about this bloody crisis which I've flown into.
First, as a general observation, despite the rhetoric I do not see this as truly being about "destroying Hizbullah." As Abu Sinan noted in comments on 'Aqoul, replying to Raf Bey's commentary, and I hit on in comments on Tom's "What was Hizbullah thinking?", if Israel was unable to break Hizbullah when it occupied southern Lebanon and ran its own indigenous Lebanese militia there (the confettis of which live in Israel now, see link), there is no chance in hell mere airstrikes and border raids are going to break Hizbullah. And as Abu Sinan opines, and I agree, degrading Hizbullah would simply lead to a replacement. A political supply and demand.
Now, some thoughts about the genesis of the crisis:
Continue reading "MENA Ground, Crises & Lounsbury Observations"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:15 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
July 14, 2006
Leb Land and Israeli bloody mindedness
Some thoughts on this escalating madness.
First, it really is painful to watch CNN fellating the Israeli point of view. Really bloody hell, a bit of critical analysis, not soft-ball questions to Netanyahu. I expect American media to be pro-Israeli, but critically so.
Second, the escalation is begining to worry me. Yesterday I was inclined to think this would blow over, but now the number of (American and Israeli) security types out pimping the line that Israel has to move into southern Leb Land to insure its security strikes me as a worrisome indicator of both American and Israeli thinking in the decision making circles. Of course, the last time they ran this, it was decades long disaster that made Hizbullah what it is today.
Third, Israeli actions while not unjustified are Pyrrhic. They are going to drive a rally-round-the-flag effect and doubtful they are going to generate what is wanted.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:11 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
Lebanon - Israel: US Media
As I count down the US exile, the Leb Land crisis with the Israeli over-reaction is an interesting occasion to observe the sheer incompetence, laziness and pandering that is the US media (mass and blog-loonistan).
Watching CNN in particular I was bemused by a truly stupid waste of broadcast time in reading the inanely ignorant blithering of viewers (which was as predictable as it was unenlightening, such as Avi from LI -not an actual name- ranting on about the evil UN, etc.); hardly news unless one had some analysis of the reactions.
The segement on "knowing our enemy" (our? Has Israel become a US state? Bloody hell, a bit of objectivty mates) re Hizbullah was typically shallow, ill-informed and security focused. Domestic US news really is atrocious. Not a new comment but bloody hell.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:20 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
June 05, 2006
World Cup
Via Clive Davis, an amusing arty for Americans on the upcoming World Cup and impact on visiting the UK. Or anywhere else in the world with a team in the game..... Well except the US of A of course.
And lest you think the author exagerates, I have already had convos with a consultant and a client about scheduling meetings with due sensitivity to key game times, and the availability of, ahem, "media" in meeting.... (i.e. can we have a TV snuck in.....).
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:01 AM | Comments (13) | TrackBack
December 12, 2005
On Syriana
Having just seen this film, I thought I might make a comment or two.
Overall, a very interesting film, I rather liked it. Somewhat on the dramatic side, as relatively large budget film has to be, but very nicely done overall. I shall not pretend to review the film as a film reviewer, but some thoughts on its MENA subject matter and small details that pleased me (as well as displeased), from someone who operates in this kind of world.
What follows will have direct reference to the film’s events, “spoilers” to use that silly precious little phrase. Don’t want to read them, don’t read on. For those who may want to see the film, my summary is I found the film to be a very nice rendition of affaires here in my region, although to be sure dramatised.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:49 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
October 09, 2005
On Arabic II: Training, Translation & Intelligence
I nipped by "Liberals Against Terrorism" (an atrocious name I may add that never ceases to irritate me) and found Pratike commenting on Arabic again, on indeed financing of Arabic studies by the United States.
That incited me to comment.
First on the financing issues, given what I saw when learning Arabic in the dark ages there certainly could be (and here I refer to the Anglo world not being in any way conversant with actual teaching materials elsewhere - except in terms of in MENA region, which are regardless of language (including Arabic), risible) better finaning of efforts to develop better pedagogical materials - preprepared texts, targetted vocabularies and all the sorts of things I recall from German (although this was wasted on me, after I decided I loathed German) and French (although in this case I was young and impressionable).
Continue reading "On Arabic II: Training, Translation & Intelligence"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:28 PM | Comments (15) | TrackBack
