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April 15, 2007
Dar Fur: Finally a decent article in the US press
I do not have much comment, other than to say that this is easily one of the more well-informed articles published in English (although the faux racialisation of Arab versus non-Arab remains in the background) on Dar Fur. In reading this, I should think it clear wny I take a dim view indeed of Western intervention in such conflicts, givent he penchant for White Hat Black Hat thinking, and the utter ignorance that comes with it. Like the Tuareg - Mali Bambara conflict of the early 90s, this is something best left to the locals to settle. Foreign intervention by gullible dupes rarely goes well. And yes, I do not exclude Rwanda from this. The best resolution for Rwanda was not foreign intervention, but rather what occured, except earlier.
[16 April 9:00 GMT: Link fixed]
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:38 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
March 07, 2007
Imperial America: Iran & Sanctions on 3rd Party Hydrocarbon Sector Investment
The Financial Times has an interesting, if infuriating (from its content, not writing) article on the Imperial American pretension to regulate other's investment in Iran. What irritates here especially is that I know from experience the slightest hint of similar actions by EU or similar parties touching on American interests provokes paroxysms of incoherent rage on the part of Americans. I confess readily knowledge of this, as well as my conviction that the US efforts here are posturing and will end up merely alienating without any real achievement, adds to my deep sense of irritation.
Now, mind you, the concept of the effort does not offend, and my snide swipe at Imperial America is most explicitly not from your usual Lefty whinging "evil capitalist America" tripe sort of point of view. No, It's about over-reaching, and clumsy over-reaching. I am a strong believer in avoiding too much obvious hypocrisy. One reason the overdone language the Americans and the French tends to engage in in their precious self-fellating rhetoric over their respective civilisations irritates.
Operationally, for many of the same reasons I predict that it will be the Chinese and similar parties that will reap the Iraqi hydrocarbons windfall, I strongly believe the US sanctions are an example of cutting off your nose to spite your face, which for some reason the current American administration seems to find to be a queerly enjoyable activity.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:43 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
January 20, 2007
The Talabani Al Hayat Interview
Kevin Drum posted a question with respect to a news item cited by Juan Cole, on what Iraqi President Jalal Talabani said on Iran - US - Iraq relations.
The article Cole worked off referred to an accompanying article of the interview w al-Hayat (what appears to be a partial transcript of the interview).
In that interview he responds to a question w respect to Iran and Syria:
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:31 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
October 07, 2006
Maghreb Economics
A quick note on some recent items from FT regarding investment flows, which will be of interest to some readers. Fund to invest $100m in African real estate, on the CDC fund for Africa (North and sub-Saharan) which is intersting as there are now also relatively substantial Gulf funds heading into real estate in North Africa as well.
And then Algeria, where supposed reforms seem to be going nowhere: Algiers turns up nationalist heat in oil and gas industry, one step back after a half step feint forward.
Algiers is reasserting control over its oil and natural gas fields barely a year after the North African country wooed international energy groups with friendlier investment terms.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:32 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
August 17, 2006
MENA Trade, Business Culture & Americans
While I confess this note is in part motivated by my desire to have an excuse to share this cartoon from the Moroccan business daily, l'Economiste from yesterday's - 16 Aug edition. This was emailed to me yesterday, and is worthy of a good laugh, I thought it also worthwhile to undertake some reflexions on both the subject matter and some generalisations about practical issues.
The text, by the way, reads roughly, "Let's go, don't be so timid." I presume everyone gets the allusion.
The subject matter is the fairly substantial non-impact of the much ballyhooed - in US circles - and much feared -in Maghrebine circles- Free Trade Agreement with the United States.
Utterly unsurprising, I may add, despite the rather overdone expectations on the American side (based on painful conversations with earnest American officials I have had from time to time) and fears on the Maghrebine side (who delusionally feared the US was going to come in and buy everything. If only.)
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 12:48 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
August 16, 2006
The Lebanon Debacle First Lessons
Lessons may be to big a word, perhaps "preliminary observations approaching lessons" would be better.
The most remarkable item from this fiasco is the manner in which the current American administration unerringly executes near-perfect bicycle-kick own-goals. It's breathtaking in its consistency, and the sheer deluded pig-headedness of it all. Only a year or two I passed over in polite silence or sneered at American Left whinging on that the Bush Administration is the worst in living memory; I confess I am sliding towards a similar opinion now in light of the simply extraordinary incompetence on display and the bizarre inability to learn from its own goals. The "Neo-Con" block is truly Bolshevik in its elevation of its ideological precepts over all fact and ample evidence of failure of its most radical precepts.
The night before last in particular in watching on one of the arab sats the Bush speech with my partner and friends I was Almost taken aback by the depth and intensity of the reaction to his speech, and this among, as I noted at Lounsbury, a crowd tending to the liberal (free market) and not typically anti-American (my JV partner being the sole person who I might characterise as "pro-American" at some level) but certainly typically pro-West. Bankers and the like.
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 09:14 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
August 13, 2006
End Game or maybe not
As our very own Tom Scud has summarised, the UN 1701 fig leaves and the online world of whankers reaction, I have little to add at the moment, having spent part of this weekend trying to rebrown myself (as camoflage) and internalise the new recommends GIPS guidelines as I write a profile for a fund. However, I do have a question for the more asture observers out there. The Sixth War is one of the monickers on the Arab Sats (at the moment I can't recall if it's al Jazeerah or al Arabiyah, things tending to blend at the moment). Anyone want to breakout the war accounting there for me as I can't get Six wars - depending on how I break it up I get one more or less. Oddly this irritates me.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:06 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
July 30, 2006
Sadly Predictable: Transforming Leb Land by Bombing Backfires
The campaign against Hezbullah turns on itself, and American "diplomatic efforts" continue to exist in some strange, delusional world of wishful thinking, where by some magical intervention from on high Hezbullah caves, and again somehow military force magically re-arranges inconvenient political realities. A queer belief system, to be sure, given it is so clearly divorced from reality, but it is the operating one for the US government as it blunders from one PR disaster to another.
[link corrected]
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:07 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
July 14, 2006
Leb Land and Israeli bloody mindedness
Some thoughts on this escalating madness.
First, it really is painful to watch CNN fellating the Israeli point of view. Really bloody hell, a bit of critical analysis, not soft-ball questions to Netanyahu. I expect American media to be pro-Israeli, but critically so.
Second, the escalation is begining to worry me. Yesterday I was inclined to think this would blow over, but now the number of (American and Israeli) security types out pimping the line that Israel has to move into southern Leb Land to insure its security strikes me as a worrisome indicator of both American and Israeli thinking in the decision making circles. Of course, the last time they ran this, it was decades long disaster that made Hizbullah what it is today.
Third, Israeli actions while not unjustified are Pyrrhic. They are going to drive a rally-round-the-flag effect and doubtful they are going to generate what is wanted.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:11 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
June 28, 2006
NYT & US SWIFT 'spying' prog bis
I noted that Kevin Drum has linked to an intriguing but I think rather wrong-headed discussion at Crooked Timber with respect to the SWIFT program. How the author at Crooked concludes that the Central Banks were not the proper authorities for SWIFT to communicate with truly escapes me, as in most jurisdictions they are precisely the authorities that most jurisdictions have regulating payment systems, and for most GAFI compliant countries, have dedicated staff for these kinds of issues...
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Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:40 PM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
April 25, 2006
On Iraq and funny little investments.
Since the deal fell through and now is pushing up the daisies, I thought I might take a moment to illustrate and reflect on some recent news out of Iraq, notably the move of Shia militias into Kirkouk and the overall rise in tensions with the Kurds.
As longer term readers knew, I grew tired of commenting on the Iraq war after it reached the stage of what I named "no escape from the Lebanese logic."
I should say that my calling the development just about two years was not particularly prescient, all one had to do was be familiar with Lebanese style civil wars and the perverse incentives that drive factions towards escalating violence, as well as assess the ability of the security forces to stop the evolution. In terms of Iraq, if one was not being willfully blind, it was painfully clear as of early to mid 2004.
Continue reading "On Iraq and funny little investments."
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:20 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
