RSSPolitics - Local Archives
April 23, 2007
Elmer Fudd
I would observe that my hotel room is very, very big - clearly made for the Saudi visitors - and to date the only interesting thing on my mind is being startled in seeing a picture of Elmer himself, head of Hizbullah (Lebanon) and the fronting display of a cell phone shop in es-Seef area. That was unexpected (of course plenty of Shia around, but odd choice in my mind for the front display of a cell phone shop.....).
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:04 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
April 15, 2007
Dar Fur: Finally a decent article in the US press
I do not have much comment, other than to say that this is easily one of the more well-informed articles published in English (although the faux racialisation of Arab versus non-Arab remains in the background) on Dar Fur. In reading this, I should think it clear wny I take a dim view indeed of Western intervention in such conflicts, givent he penchant for White Hat Black Hat thinking, and the utter ignorance that comes with it. Like the Tuareg - Mali Bambara conflict of the early 90s, this is something best left to the locals to settle. Foreign intervention by gullible dupes rarely goes well. And yes, I do not exclude Rwanda from this. The best resolution for Rwanda was not foreign intervention, but rather what occured, except earlier.
[16 April 9:00 GMT: Link fixed]
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:38 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
April 13, 2007
Terror & Opposition: Mohammed Faiz - Casablanca Bombing encores
Returning to a proposition I raised a month ago, but have sadly been too busy to act on, that of Mohammed Faiz, I noted that the weekly MarocHebdo International has a cover story on the man, the leader is Mohamed Faïz, héros de l'attentat terroriste du cybercafé de Sidi Moumen, se dit abandonné à son sort or "heros of the terrorist attack on the Sidi Moumen internet cafe, thinks he's been left to his own devices."
I picked up the hard copy in the airport today, (3 euro is really an absurd price I may add), and in reading I have to say obviously my proposition for a fund to support him and the victims is more necessary than I though.
However, one has to find the vehicle to do so. Obviously I have to try to move ahead on this. I would hope that any Maghrebine readers who might be able to facilitate actions might email the collounsbury yahoo address with thoughts.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:49 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
March 07, 2007
Imperial America: Iran & Sanctions on 3rd Party Hydrocarbon Sector Investment
The Financial Times has an interesting, if infuriating (from its content, not writing) article on the Imperial American pretension to regulate other's investment in Iran. What irritates here especially is that I know from experience the slightest hint of similar actions by EU or similar parties touching on American interests provokes paroxysms of incoherent rage on the part of Americans. I confess readily knowledge of this, as well as my conviction that the US efforts here are posturing and will end up merely alienating without any real achievement, adds to my deep sense of irritation.
Now, mind you, the concept of the effort does not offend, and my snide swipe at Imperial America is most explicitly not from your usual Lefty whinging "evil capitalist America" tripe sort of point of view. No, It's about over-reaching, and clumsy over-reaching. I am a strong believer in avoiding too much obvious hypocrisy. One reason the overdone language the Americans and the French tends to engage in in their precious self-fellating rhetoric over their respective civilisations irritates.
Operationally, for many of the same reasons I predict that it will be the Chinese and similar parties that will reap the Iraqi hydrocarbons windfall, I strongly believe the US sanctions are an example of cutting off your nose to spite your face, which for some reason the current American administration seems to find to be a queerly enjoyable activity.
Continue reading "Imperial America: Iran & Sanctions on 3rd Party Hydrocarbon Sector Investment"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:43 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
March 06, 2007
Opportunity Cost
I just had an amusing, even hilarious for me, lunch with my attorney who was ranting on about how his local clients have to be brow-beaten (and we're talking corporates, name brand even) into conveying timely information, to him, their attorney, for work they've demanded.
I actually have the exact same experience. It's amazing, really, what it takes to get the simplest fucking things done in this region. Efficiency. What's most irritating and yet in some ways puzzling (in others not when you think about internal organisational structures and incentives) is the foot dragging raises their costs as much as mine (or the attorney's). Of course the constant whinging on about costs etc when they sit down with a bill makes this even more infuriating.
But there are clear organisation incentives to non-performance in the typical MENA company, nothing shocking that doesn't exist in the West of course - see Dilbert. But as always, these things are a question of degree, and indeed the weakness of countervailing incentives.
In some ways it's a good way to look at the failures of Iraq, since the American decision makers innocently assumed the exact same incentive structures, decisional processes and worst yet, reactivity. And being arrogantly blinded to the sometimes (indeed often) subtle differences - any one of which may be individually trivial, but cumulatively is fatal - were unable to react, to adjust and change at once tactics and conceptual strategy in ways that actually responded to the real incentive structures.
I've noted in places like our fool Andrew Sullivan (and even more egregiously chez the Moustache of Understanding) comments tending to indicate that Arabs (or Muslims, en grosso modo) don't value / want / desire Liberty, etc. etc. That's bollocks - but the operational incentives for making changes to achieve those things require different approaches, and realisation that the near term incentive structure is weighted towards avoidance of decisions etc. - nails get pounded down - unless one has a means to control - as in guns.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:53 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
January 20, 2007
The Talabani Al Hayat Interview
Kevin Drum posted a question with respect to a news item cited by Juan Cole, on what Iraqi President Jalal Talabani said on Iran - US - Iraq relations.
The article Cole worked off referred to an accompanying article of the interview w al-Hayat (what appears to be a partial transcript of the interview).
In that interview he responds to a question w respect to Iran and Syria:
Continue reading "The Talabani Al Hayat Interview"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:31 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
January 07, 2007
Parisian Serving Soup un-Kosher, un-Halal
A queer little article from the Financial Times on the Conseil d'Etat of France decision forbiding Solidarité des Français from distributing its soup containing pig ears, feet and tails to Parisian homeless
I have to say it has an only in France air to it, but gives one a moment to reflect on French approaches to "integration" and a tendecy to favour form over substance. It will surely be an occasion for the Phobics to rail on about "Eurabia" and their fevered imaginings regarding an Islamic threat in Europe.
Continue reading "Parisian Serving Soup un-Kosher, un-Halal"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 07:46 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
October 07, 2006
Maghreb Economics
A quick note on some recent items from FT regarding investment flows, which will be of interest to some readers. Fund to invest $100m in African real estate, on the CDC fund for Africa (North and sub-Saharan) which is intersting as there are now also relatively substantial Gulf funds heading into real estate in North Africa as well.
And then Algeria, where supposed reforms seem to be going nowhere: Algiers turns up nationalist heat in oil and gas industry, one step back after a half step feint forward.
Algiers is reasserting control over its oil and natural gas fields barely a year after the North African country wooed international energy groups with friendlier investment terms.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:32 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Mr Straw & The Niqab
It appears that For. Sec. Straw's comments on the Niqab, the face veil, have set off a bit of a storm. From The Financial Times to The Times coverage of his original comments regarding prefering women not wear the face veil as divisive through to coverage of The Poodle's craven and inconsistent pandering and on to coverage (the sooner he is gone the better, I await with impatience The New York Times (but British official, I am come on, how about Brit For. Sec.?).
I am not sure if that is good or bad, but it bears some commenting on. First, when I first saw the comments I wasn't sure if he meant the hijab, which would have been annoyingly tedious, or the niqab, which I agree with. I am pleased to see it is about the covering of the face. There is a vast and important difference between the ninja get-ups that are so very Saudi Wahhabite neo-Islamic rot, and a woman covering her hair with a scarf.
Continue reading "Mr Straw & The Niqab"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 05:32 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
August 24, 2006
Real Challenges - Competing With Hezbullah
I had another convo with the American group on the US Gov propo regarding Lebanon reconstruction.
The thinking is going in the right direction, they realise on reflection that rushing in to compete with Hezbullah is a great way to do CPA bis, but now the question is "How do you compete with Hezbullah to mitigate its wins?"
Regardless of American stupidity in regards to its FP, the question is a real one.
How indeed does the US compete with Hezbullah?
Continue reading "Real Challenges - Competing With Hezbullah"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 11:09 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
August 13, 2006
And a short echo on cluelessness and navel-gazing
While were I not obliged to spend my time this weekend working on investment performance whanking (obliged meaning, choosing to as the said performance is not in any way related to me Titanic), I would have some amplifications on this note by Billmon with respect to a fine Op Ed in The Washington wondering why US military can't achieve the same street cred as Hezbullah on the ground.
Continue reading "And a short echo on cluelessness and navel-gazing"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:17 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
May 22, 2006
The Wisdom of the Egyptians: US & Egypt
While many 'Aqoul readers likely are aware that Egypt is passing through some rather severe political tensions at present, as disgust with the vampiric Mubarek regime seems to be bubbling up like a half-suppressed urge to vomit, I thought I would depart from my normal Egypt aversion and comment on The Financial Times's piece on PM Ahmed Nazif's Wisdom, Egypt ‘not under US pressure’ over political freedom (reporting by Mr Wallis paired with the esteemed Roula Khalaf who hopefully can impart some street smarts to the man so my precious FT space for MENA is not taken up with announcements that Egypt supports "Arab Unity").
Continue reading "The Wisdom of the Egyptians: US & Egypt"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 01:41 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
April 25, 2006
On Iraq and funny little investments.
Since the deal fell through and now is pushing up the daisies, I thought I might take a moment to illustrate and reflect on some recent news out of Iraq, notably the move of Shia militias into Kirkouk and the overall rise in tensions with the Kurds.
As longer term readers knew, I grew tired of commenting on the Iraq war after it reached the stage of what I named "no escape from the Lebanese logic."
I should say that my calling the development just about two years was not particularly prescient, all one had to do was be familiar with Lebanese style civil wars and the perverse incentives that drive factions towards escalating violence, as well as assess the ability of the security forces to stop the evolution. In terms of Iraq, if one was not being willfully blind, it was painfully clear as of early to mid 2004.
Continue reading "On Iraq and funny little investments."
Posted by The Lounsbury at 08:20 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
September 05, 2005
On Sex & MENA: The Local Porn Industry
I have a longish reflection on this very subject, and on the issue of prostitution, general dress and the like. It needs editing (and has for months), but this week's report in La Gazette, a mainstream weekly, and some observations I made this weekend while shopping in my tres chic office-shopping mall complex provoke me to a small interim observation:
First, of course, I am not surprised that the article I cited, entitled "L’industrie du film X au Maroc" was published, given recent scandals in Agadir and hints of the same in Marrakech. Poverty combined with lack of opportunity combined with vast wealth differences always produces these kinds of things (although that has nothing perhaps to do with the Euro porn stars cited as having come to Marrakech).
I should note that the physical version of this article is rather more graphic and rather longer.
Continue reading "On Sex & MENA: The Local Porn Industry"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 06:12 PM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
August 17, 2005
Tel Quel, Maghrebine Media and the Fine
My dear Bou Araadvrak, to use a Maghrebine form, has bring [edit: ahem brought, I of course meant to write brought, maybe brings.... well no matter, self corrected, defending my reputation for some marginal level of literacy] attention to something breaking in the fine Moroccan kingdon, the fining of the outre French language publication, Tel Quel.
Well, what do I think?
(update with further thoughts)
Continue reading "Tel Quel, Maghrebine Media and the Fine"
Posted by The Lounsbury at 03:58 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
July 12, 2005
Lebanon: The Lebanon II Scenario
No substantive commentary, but I draw attention to this:
Lebanon Deputy Premier Wounded in Blast
The target, a pro-Syrian politician.
I opined months back that I did not like the US supporting a maximalist approach to opposition politics because of the chances of playing into returned inter (and intra) communal violence.
The overall analysis behind this is that while, yes, a majority of Lebanese do not want a return to civil war, as in Iraq, and as in Lebanon - it is not the majority that makes these things happen. One simply needs enough hard men on either side who can make a profit in some manner, via power or money, to push it, and enough weakness on public authority side to be unable to choke the trend off.
Lebanon probably can choke the trend off, but the state is just weak enough that this can't be dismissed.
I also note the potential for a currency crisis which could help precipitate serious tensions.
Posted by The Lounsbury at 10:16 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
