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<title>Lounsbury</title>
<link>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/</link>
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<copyright>Copyright 2012</copyright>
<lastBuildDate>Mon, 23 May 2011 10:29:53 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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<item>
<title>Dollar naivete</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>A remarkably naive note, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/22/business/economy/22view.html?src=recg&amp;pagewanted=all">A Strong Dollar Isn’t Always a Good Thing - Economic View - NYTimes.com</a><br /><blockquote><br />AT a recent news conference, Ben S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, was asked about the falling dollar. He parried the question, saying that the Treasury secretary was the government’s spokesman on the exchange rate — and, of course, that the United States favors a strong dollar.<br /><br />Listening to that statement, I flashed back to one of my first experiences as an adviser to Barack Obama. In November 2008, I was sharing a cab in Chicago with Larry Summers, the former Treasury secretary and a fellow economic adviser to the president-elect. To help prepare me for the interviews and the hearings to come, Larry graciously asked me questions and critiqued my answers.<br /><br />When he asked about the exchange rate for the dollar, I began: “The exchange rate is a price much like any other price, and is determined by market forces.”<br /><br />“Wrong!” Larry boomed. “The exchange rate is the purview of the Treasury. The United States is in favor of a strong dollar.”<br /><br />For the record, my initial answer was much more reasonable. Our exchange rate is just a price — the price of the dollar in terms of other currencies. It is not controlled by anyone. And a high price for the dollar, which is what we mean by a strong dollar, is not always desirable. </blockquote><br />Come now, I think the whole world understands the USGov's Kabuki theatre regarding the dollar. Say that they're in favour of a strong dollar, but take no such action. the reason it is not stated straight out is of course that would be interpreted as a signal of active devaluation, which could launch some major unruliness in the markets, particularly chez sovereign buyers. <br /><br /><div class="zemanta-pixie"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" alt="" src="http://img.zemanta.com/pixy.gif?x-id=2e398b95-39e1-8981-bbbe-71464f71536d" /></div></p>]]></description>
<link>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2011/05/dollar_naivete.html</link>
<guid>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2011/05/dollar_naivete.html</guid>
<category>Biz -  Policy &amp; Development</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 23 May 2011 10:29:53 +0000</pubDate>
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<title>Marrakech explosion</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>A quick note, for those who know me well, I wasn't in Marrakech at the time: <a href="http://www.macon.com/2011/04/28/1541494/explosion-hits-cafe-in-morocco.html">Explosion hits cafe in Morocco, 14 dead - Top Stories - Wire - Macon.com</a><br /><br /><blockquote>A massive explosion ripped through a cafe popular among tourists in the Moroccan city of Marrakech on Thursday, killing 14 people including foreigners and wounding 20 in what the government called a criminal act.<br /><br />If confirmed as terrorism, the blast in the iconic Djemma el-Fna square would be Morocco's deadliest bombing in eight years. </blockquote><br /><br />Early reports have this as a gas cannister explosion, which is not implausible. However, the Ministry of Interior statement just out calling it a criminal act is an almost confirmation that this was terrorism (insofar as if there was any way it was not, they would rather prefer that, given confirmation will truly fuck tourism). <br /><br /><div class="zemanta-pixie"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" alt="" src="http://img.zemanta.com/pixy.gif?x-id=4f12c4c3-cf9f-829c-a7a1-6cc086764bd9" /></div></p>]]></description>
<link>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2011/04/marrakech_explo.html</link>
<guid>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2011/04/marrakech_explo.html</guid>
<category>Perso</category>
<pubDate>Thu, 28 Apr 2011 15:38:54 +0000</pubDate>
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<title>Code Names for Libya: Operation Harmattan</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>I am with the FT, the French code name is more imaginative and better connected to Libya (<a href="http://blogs.ft.com/rachmanblog/">Gideon Rachman's blog | International affairs blog from the FT – FT.com)</a><br /><br /><blockquote>17.59 Code name trivia. It has been widely reported in the world’s Sunday papers that the military operation to enforce UN resolution 1973 is called “Odyssey Dawn”. But as a (slightly piqued?) British defence official said on Sunday, that’s only the US name for the operation:<br /></blockquote><blockquote><br />    “The UK Armed Forces are operating under the name Operation ELLAMY. This is the UK operational name; other allies may operate under a different operational name; for example, the US have called this operation Odyssey Dawn.”<br /><br />Other countries have come with more imaginative code names for the operation. The French have gone for “Harmattan” (a dry dusty wind that blows across West Africa from the Sahara). The Canadian operation is uninterestingly called “MOBILE“, but, following the wind theme, Ottawa has named its air task force enforcing the no-fly zone “Libeccio” after the strong southwesterly wind that blows all year in the Mediterranean.</blockquote><br />As I mentioned in my last Aqoul post, I found the Pentagon's press session queer - perhaps it is just bad old habit that they wish to assert / promote their role rather than playing a more diplomatic PR game. <br /><br /><br /><div class="zemanta-pixie"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" alt="" src="http://img.zemanta.com/pixy.gif?x-id=c160a272-007b-8f94-b885-c8246bfb4c7b" /></div></p>]]></description>
<link>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2011/03/code_names_for.html</link>
<guid>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2011/03/code_names_for.html</guid>
<category></category>
<pubDate>Sun, 20 Mar 2011 19:19:20 +0000</pubDate>
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<title>Euro Pact (The German Medicine</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>A side comment, the German suggestions on Euro support I think are much needed to move the Mediterranean countries forward - although what to do about Greece...<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/11/world/europe/11germany.html?hp=&amp;pagewanted=all"> Germany Sets Steep Price to Shore Up Euro Zone - NYTimes.com</a><br /><blockquote>But in return for this “solidarity,” the Germans say they want “solidity” on limiting benefits and accepting monitoring. Among the measures it is pressing is an agreement to raise retirement ages closer to Germany’s, where access to government pensions begins at age 67, well above the European average. Germany would also like others to stop pegging wage increases automatically to inflation. That is a necessary step if wages are to shrink in absolute terms, which some economists argue is necessary if bitter medicine to inject some competitiveness into the economies of Europe’s southern tier. <br /></blockquote><br />...<br /><br /><blockquote>The Germans would also force private bondholders who bought the high-yielding debt of the most troubled euro-zone countries to bear part of the burden if countries defaulted or needed to restructure their debt — and not be protected by taxpayers. </blockquote><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><div class="zemanta-pixie"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" alt="" src="http://img.zemanta.com/pixy.gif?x-id=c81350e2-d377-8455-a707-f0c9a1a57f11" /></div></p>]]></description>
<link>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2011/03/euro_pact_the_g.html</link>
<guid>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2011/03/euro_pact_the_g.html</guid>
<category>Biz -  Policy &amp; Development</category>
<pubDate>Fri, 11 Mar 2011 09:21:19 +0000</pubDate>
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<title>USA: The Muslim Hearings</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>I haven't much to say on this other than King is a clown and a terrorist supporter (his support for the IRA), but Ellison was in good form however much I don't particularly care for this general politics:<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/11/arts/television/at-muslim-hearing-finger-pointing-and-tears.html?hp"> Terror Hearing Puts Lawmakers in Harsh Light - NYTimes.com</a><br /><blockquote>But some opponents in Congress who are not committee members chose to warn those who are, notably Representative Keith Ellison, Democrat of Minnesota, who is one of two Muslims in Congress. Mr. Ellison, who spoke as a witness, tearfully described the sacrifice of Mohammed Salman Hamdani, a volunteer medical technician who died trying to help rescue victims in the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001 — pointing out that Mr. Hamdani was wrongly suspected of being part of the plot until his remains were discovered. After he spoke, Mr. Ellison pulled his statement up in front of his face to compose himself. </blockquote><br /><br /><div class="zemanta-pixie"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" alt="" src="http://img.zemanta.com/pixy.gif?x-id=cdb8a4cb-32eb-874b-beed-fc673976af0c" /></div></p>]]></description>
<link>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2011/03/usa_the_muslim.html</link>
<guid>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2011/03/usa_the_muslim.html</guid>
<category>Politics - Local</category>
<pubDate>Fri, 11 Mar 2011 09:02:46 +0000</pubDate>
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<title>Site News: New Category for the Revolutions posts</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Subject to renaming, I created in Aqoul the subcat "The MENA '48" as reference to the current revolutionary situation in MENA. I could be convinced to rename, but figured a category for this is well deserved. Will be relabelling<br /><br /><div class="zemanta-pixie"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" alt="" src="http://img.zemanta.com/pixy.gif?x-id=f37f6144-49a6-8164-b61b-4ecb94ab798c" /></div></p>]]></description>
<link>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2011/03/site_news_new_c.html</link>
<guid>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2011/03/site_news_new_c.html</guid>
<category>Blog Notes - Admin</category>
<pubDate>Thu, 10 Mar 2011 21:44:04 +0000</pubDate>
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<title>Sidelights, the weaknesses of open source</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>For months I have been experimenting with the Free perso and business accounting software, <a href="http://www.gnucash.org/">GnuCash</a>, self described as <blockquote>"designed to be easy to use, yet powerful and flexible, GnuCash allows you to track bank accounts, stocks, income and expenses. As quick and intuitive to use as a checkbook register, it is based on professional accounting principles to ensure balanced books and accurate reports." <br /></blockquote>Last night after yet more tussling I am giving up. Will have to go back to Quicken (or another choice as I hate Quicken's nasty little forced upgrading). Gnucash is a veritable picture of the downside of opensource: feature heavy, but crappy user interfacing, confusing implementations, idiosyncratic naming, organisation.... It's software by IT geeks. I give up.<br /><br /><div class="zemanta-pixie"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" alt="" src="http://img.zemanta.com/pixy.gif?x-id=0a5b77c2-14c2-82d8-89b8-78d11c5246da" /></div></p>]]></description>
<link>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2011/02/sidelights_the.html</link>
<guid>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2011/02/sidelights_the.html</guid>
<category>Perso</category>
<pubDate>Sat, 26 Feb 2011 10:39:04 +0000</pubDate>
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<title>Charming: Hearing on Loyalty of Muslim Americans</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Just saw this on the NYT<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/08/us/politics/08muslim.html?ref=us">Rep. Peter King Rejects Criticism of Homegrown Terror Hearings - NYTimes.com</a><br /><br />Brilliant, why we just shall have some fine hearings. I though this sort of thing went out in the 1960s....<br /><br /><blockquote>Representative Peter T. King, Republican of New York, said he would rely on Muslims to make his case that American Muslim leaders have failed to cooperate with law enforcement officials in the effort to disrupt terrorist plots — a claim that was rebutted in recent reports by counterterrorism experts and in a forum on Capitol Hill on Monday</blockquote><br /><br />This is a dangerous thing to pursue as a public hearing. It is scapegoating and it can lead to very nasty things. If there is real concern, it is best left to the intelligence agencies. <br /><br /><div class="zemanta-pixie"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" alt="" src="http://img.zemanta.com/pixy.gif?x-id=9188ee17-4f84-8b2b-bd87-069f89900227" /></div></p>]]></description>
<link>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2011/02/charming_hearin.html</link>
<guid>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2011/02/charming_hearin.html</guid>
<category>Politics</category>
<pubDate>Tue, 08 Feb 2011 13:31:23 +0000</pubDate>
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<title>An observation</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>It is impossible to focus when one's region is in full out revolt. My productivity the past week or two has been trivial.<br /><br /><div class="zemanta-pixie"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" alt="" src="http://img.zemanta.com/pixy.gif?x-id=9188ee17-4f84-8b2b-bd87-069f89900227" /></div></p>

<p>[HMM getting errors trying to post this from Scribefire. But not with Aqoul main.</p>]]></description>
<link>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2011/02/an_observation_2.html</link>
<guid>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2011/02/an_observation_2.html</guid>
<category></category>
<pubDate>Thu, 03 Feb 2011 13:33:06 +0000</pubDate>
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<title>Stereotypical but.... blog software for Blackberry?</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>I find I have blogging time in airports on me blackberry, and while Scribefire works brilliantly from a laptop, it would be nice to have something to work with Moveable Type from Blackberry. <br /><br /><div class="zemanta-pixie"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" alt="" src="http://img.zemanta.com/pixy.gif?x-id=187ebb34-bf10-8421-8964-ba0532410dc8" /></div></p>]]></description>
<link>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2010/07/stereotypical_b.html</link>
<guid>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2010/07/stereotypical_b.html</guid>
<category>Blog Notes - Admin</category>
<pubDate>Thu, 29 Jul 2010 09:28:36 +0000</pubDate>
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<title>American meddling - Megrahi &amp; BP</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>The silly US furour over this is just plain stupid. <br /><br /><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bff1655e-93ed-11df-83ad-00144feab49a.html">FT.com / UK / Politics &amp; policy - Cameron tries to shield BP over Megrahi release</a><br /><br /><blockquote>Cameron tries to shield BP over Megrahi release<br /><br />By George Parker and Ed Luce in Washington<br /><br /><br />David Cameron on Tuesday tried to shield BP from growing anger in Washington over the oil company’s alleged role in the release of the Lockerbie bomber, arguing that the blame lay with Scottish ministers.<br /><br />Speaking ahead of his first visit to the White House as prime minister, Mr Cameron rejected suggestions that BP’s lobbying over oil contracts in Libya played any part in the release of Abdel Basset al-Megrahi from a Scottish jail last year.<br /><br />He said the “misguided” decision to release the bomber was taken by ministers in the devolved Scottish Executive on compassionate grounds. “He should have died in jail,” the prime minister said.<br /><br />But speaking on National Public Radio, he said: “Let’s be clear over who released Megrahi. It was not a decision of BP – it was a decision of Scottish ministers.”</blockquote><br /><br />&nbsp;<br /><br /><div class="zemanta-pixie"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" alt="" src="http://img.zemanta.com/pixy.gif?x-id=11c050f7-e1aa-8984-8146-551e602bceaf" /></div></p>]]></description>
<link>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2010/07/american_meddli.html</link>
<guid>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2010/07/american_meddli.html</guid>
<category>North Africa</category>
<pubDate>Tue, 20 Jul 2010 16:29:35 +0000</pubDate>
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<title>Interesting reflexion on Credit &amp; Inequality</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Interesting comment worth reflexion also relative to emerging markets (and the naive obsession of the development community with expansion of credit to any and all):<br /><br /><a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/07/credit-drives-income-inequality-drives-credit/59941/">Credit Drives Income Inequality Drives Credit - Business - The Atlantic</a><br /><blockquote>Jul 17 2010, 10:15 AM ET | Comment<br /><br />As economists continue to sort through the causes of the financial crisis (even though Congress already fixed the problem), there's one cause you don't hear very often: income inequality. Economist Raghuram Rajan explains this point in a recent article at Project Syndicate. He says that income inequality was growing prior to the housing bubble, which is part of what drove policymakers to champion subprime mortgages. Since these individuals couldn't actually afford as much as more affluent Americans, they could now tap into credit to feel just as wealthy. The corollary to his point is what too much credit can do: help to mask income inequality and cause it to further grow. </blockquote><br /><br />Empirically something to be studied.<br /><br /><div class="zemanta-pixie"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" alt="" src="http://img.zemanta.com/pixy.gif?x-id=11c050f7-e1aa-8984-8146-551e602bceaf" /></div></p>]]></description>
<link>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2010/07/interesting_ref.html</link>
<guid>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2010/07/interesting_ref.html</guid>
<category>Biz -  Policy &amp; Development</category>
<pubDate>Sat, 17 Jul 2010 19:23:02 +0000</pubDate>
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<title>Belgium &amp; the Francophones</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>Besides of course the history of Francophone arrogance (no snideness from the Americans on this, American linguistic arrogance is of a piece) of course is also the heritage of French style (as in France style) labour code versus the Flemish liberalism (relative liberalism). <br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/16/world/europe/16belgium.html?ref=global-home&amp;pagewanted=all">One Town’s Language Divide Mirrors Belgium’s - NYTimes.com</a><br /><blockquote>Fueling the tensions is a change of economic fortune and a long grudge  match between the Flemish and the French. Belgium, a relatively new  country, declared its independence in 1830. At first, the country’s  aristocracy spoke French and the country’s French-speaking regions —  rich from iron and <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/c/coal/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier" title="More articles about coal." class="meta-classifier">coal</a>  manufacturing — were often contemptuous of the largely agricultural  north. During World War I, most Belgian officers were French-speaking  and made little effort to translate for Flemish soldiers.		</blockquote><blockquote><p> These days, however, the French part of Belgium — population about four  million — is poorer, while Flanders, population about six million, has  grown wealthy with a diverse economy. Many Flemish voters resent their  taxes’ flowing south.		</p><span style="font-weight: bold;">In some parts of Wallonia, the unemployment rate is close to 20 percent. Nonetheless, Mr. Desmet said the Walloons can refuse a job if it is more than 15 miles from their homes, and collect unemployment. “In the north, there are jobs that could be filled,” he said. “That really annoys a lot of the Flemish.” </span></blockquote><br />Pity Belgium is in the cycle of dysfunction, but of course the original logic of the country was partially religious (Catholicism) but as that has ceased to be relevant, the Flamands resemble rather more their linguistic brothers just up north.<br /><br /><br /><div class="zemanta-pixie"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" alt="" src="http://img.zemanta.com/pixy.gif?x-id=8c3e866e-0d0a-80e2-b238-7b99074f9592" /></div></p>]]></description>
<link>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2010/07/belgium_the_fra.html</link>
<guid>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2010/07/belgium_the_fra.html</guid>
<category></category>
<pubDate>Thu, 15 Jul 2010 21:28:48 +0000</pubDate>
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<title>Frontier Markets: new fad but there is reality</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>I've been convinced that the frontier markets are improving more than commonly understood for a while, although they are indeed the frontiers... As such, I don't think frontier markets is a good place for index investing. The idiosyncrasies and lack of data make the precepts of index investment .... mmm "aggressive" relative to reality.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/11/business/mutfund/11frontier.html?ref=global&amp;pagewanted=all">Frontier Markets Are Getting a Second Look - NYTimes.com</a><br /><blockquote>Almost everyone, including MSCI, puts Nigeria in the frontier category. “I get people asking, ‘Who’s the next Brazil?’ ” said Adam J. Kutas, manager of the Fidelity Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa fund. “I answer without hesitation that it’s Nigeria,” because it also has a large population and a huge base of natural resources. <br /></blockquote>This however is insane bollocks. Brazil had far better possible governance than Nigeria has ever had. I am not a Nigeria optimist overall.<br /><br /><br /><div class="zemanta-pixie"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" alt="" src="http://img.zemanta.com/pixy.gif?x-id=a15e50a2-66d9-8486-8c97-99c8bf892a15" /></div></p>]]></description>
<link>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2010/07/frontier_market.html</link>
<guid>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2010/07/frontier_market.html</guid>
<category>Biz -  Policy &amp; Development</category>
<pubDate>Mon, 12 Jul 2010 09:21:55 +0000</pubDate>
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<title>Deals vs Rule: Good obs on how it works in emerging mkts</title>
<description><![CDATA[<p>This speaks to me.<br /><br /><a href="http://psdblog.worldbank.org/psdblog/2010/06/deals-vs-rules.html">Deals vs. rules - PSD Blog - The World Bank Group</a><br /><blockquote>Over on the All About Finance blog, Mary Hallward-Driemeier has an excellent post on the "deals" that firms have to make in countries with excessive regulations. Money quote: <br /><br />    For countries with lengthy requirements...almost no firm actually faces the formal burdens on the books.<br /><br />    This does not mean that lengthy formal practices are costless. Rather, firms ‘pay’ through other channels. This variation in implementation is associated with greater activities on the part of firms to influence the actions of officials (e.g. paying bribes or spending time with officials). Rather than coping with the application of (more or less favorable) rules, firms face deals. And the larger the gap between the de jure and de facto outcomes, the greater the potential space for deals, and indeed, the more prevalent are bribes.</blockquote><br /><br />Spot on comment actually.<br /><br /><div class="zemanta-pixie"><img class="zemanta-pixie-img" alt="" src="http://img.zemanta.com/pixy.gif?x-id=07088562-4151-82a7-8ccf-66f1a7ac11ab" /></div></p>]]></description>
<link>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2010/07/deals_vs_rule_g.html</link>
<guid>http://lounsbury.aqoul.com/archives/2010/07/deals_vs_rule_g.html</guid>
<category>Biz -  Policy &amp; Development</category>
<pubDate>Sun, 11 Jul 2010 19:29:47 +0000</pubDate>
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